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Singapore experienced an extraordinary demographic transition from a population growth of over 4% per year in the late 1950s to around 1.6% in the 1990s and below replacement fertility since 1986. In 1987 official government policy shifted to measures for increasing fertility. This paper explores whether Singapore's pronatalist policies can reverse the demographic transition. The present policies aim to selectively increase fertility among the well educated. By 1987 the slogan switched from "stop at two" to "have three, if you can afford it." The policy included tax relief for a third child and other measures to encourage a third child. The policies are expected to have a different influence on society according to one's education, income, and family size. The government target is to selectively increase population by 40% over 25 years. Singapore's transition may follow the theory that low fertility is attained in societies where kin relationships are less important than personal educational achievements. The three ethnic groups responded differently to educational and fertility policies. The Chinese acquired the best education and attained the lowest fertility. The Chinese, who comprised 76% of total population in 1986, continued to have low fertility, while increases occurred among the Malays and the Indians. Future trends are considered difficult to predict. A survey conducted in 1992 in Ang Mo Kio among 489 reproductive age respondents revealed that Malays had the earliest marriage and first births before the age of 25 years (75% of Malays and 50% of Indians). The Chinese had their first child at 25 years or older. Without controls for the age of the mother, a strong statistically significant association was found between ethnic group and age at marriage and age at first birth. The relationship was not supported for current fertility. A comparison of women married for 5 years or less and 5 years or more revealed that women in recent marriages showed a greater likelihood of postponing marriage and childbirth for all ethnic groups. Since 1987, third order births as a percentage of all births increased from 21.47% before 1987 to 23.11% during 1987-92, which only suggests the favorable impact of the pronatalist policy. Educational changes are likely to become more influential in affecting choice of family size.  相似文献   

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Olaus Magnus — et 400 års minne, så lyder titelen på det korte foredrag jeg har fått adgang til å. holde her i dag på. akademiets siste møte i inneværende kalenderår. Den 2. august i år var det nemlig 400 år siden denne merkelige, interessante og sympatiske personlighet døde i Rom. som Sveriges siste katolske erkebiskop etter 33 års land-flyktighet uten å ha fått tiltre den erkebiskopstolen i Uppsala, som pave Paulus III hadde utnevnt ham til etter hans to år eldre brors Johannes Magnus' død i 1544.  相似文献   

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Urban segregation has received increasing attention in the literature due to the negative impacts that it has on urban populations. Indices of urban segregation are useful instruments for understanding the problem as well as for setting up public policies. The usefulness of spatial segregation indices depends on their ability to account for the spatial arrangement of population and to show how segregation varies across the city. This paper proposes global spatial indices of segregation that capture interaction among population groups at different scales. We also decompose the global indices to obtain local spatial indices of segregation, which enable visualization and exploration of segregation patterns. We propose the use of statistical tests to determine the significance of the indices. The proposed indices are illustrated using an artificial dataset and a case study of socio‐economic segregation in São José dos Campos (SP, Brazil).  相似文献   

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This study compares how humans and neural networks classify climate types. Human subjects were asked to classify climates from monthly temperature and precipitation patterns. To model their learning process, the same data were used to produce input vectors that trained a pattern associator neural network. Both human subjects and the neural network classified climates accurately after 10 rounds of supervised learning. The neural network successfully modeled the rate of human learning and the ability to learn specific climate categories. Moreover, the neural network weights used to classify climates correspond to distinct visual characteristics in temperature and precipitation. These results suggest that neural networks can model the formation of visual categories.  相似文献   

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