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1.
Impacts of climatic change on river runoff in northern Xinjiang of China over last fifty years 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p=0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipita-tion. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 相似文献
2.
Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Based on monOdy river runoff and meteorological data, a method of Morlet wavelet transform was used to analyze the multiple time scale characteristics of river runoffin the Dagnjia River Basin, Yantai City, Shandong Province. The results showed that the total annual river runoff in the Dagujia River Basin decreased significantly from 1966 to 2004, and the rate of decrease was 48×106m3/10yr, which was higher than the mean value of most rivers in China. Multiple time scale characteristics existed, which accounted for different aspects of the changes in annual river runoff, and the major periods of the runoff time series were identified as about 28 years, 14 years and 4 years with decreasing levels of fluctuation. The river runoff evolution process was controlled by changes in precipitation to a certain extent, but it was also greatly influenced by human activities. Also, for different time periods and scales, the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual river runoff evolution occurred at the same time. Changes in the annual river runoffwere mainly associated with climate change before the 1980s and with human activities after 1981. 相似文献
3.
Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River,Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Maj or findings are as follows： 1） Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, av- erage temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipitation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2） From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipitation showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we observed nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3） The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation. 相似文献
4.
基于同时考虑自变量和因变量测量误差的线性回归模型,首先将众多待选模型统一为附有约束条件的线性回归模型,然后采用含有多个备选假设的假设检验理论,并以拉格朗日算子构造假设检验统计量,提出最佳线性回归模型选择方法。实验结果表明,该算法可以获得符合观测数据实际的最佳线性回归模型,而且较改进后的线性假设法更简便。 相似文献
5.
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6.
针对线性回归中自变量和因变量可能含有粗差的情况,提出线性回归模型的稳健总体最小二乘法。将线性回归模型进行等价变换,视其总体最小二乘平差模型为非线性,根据选权迭代的思想推导线性回归模型的稳健总体最小二乘迭代算法。以模拟算例在自变量和因变量同时添加粗差的情况下进行10 000次试验,并从中选出一组数据进行具体分析,结果验证了本文算法的有效性和可行性。 相似文献
7.
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8.
针对川中丘陵区紫色土坡耕地严重水土流失,选取典型代表李子溪流域为研究区,构建了其SWAT的模型数据库,包括地形、土壤、气象和土地利用数据库。并利用赵家祠水文站1970-1979年的实测径流和泥沙资料,对该流域的SWAT模型参数进行率定再采用1980-1986年的实测资料,对模型的适用性进行验证,同时用相对误差Re和Nash确定性系数Ens评价模拟效果。结果显示,径流和泥沙模拟相对误差均在±15%范围以内,Nash确定性系数均大于等于0.70,说明SWAT模型对李子溪流域年、月径流和年泥沙量的模拟精度较高。同时模拟值与实测值和降雨量的变化趋于一致。可见,用SWAT模型模拟和预测雨量较为丰沛、土壤侵蚀较严重的紫色丘陵地区的产流产沙是实用、可行的。 相似文献
9.
城市是多样性聚集的场所,且多元化和差异性日益增强,故探究土地混合利用具有一定的现实意义。现有的土地混合研究大多以POI（Point of Interest）为研究基础,着眼于城市主题的研究较少。本文采用百度POI数据,在街区尺度下考虑POI共现以提取主题,并挖掘北京市四环内的主题混合模式,其结果可以为城市规划及其建设提供参考。首先,采用LDA（Latent Dirichlet Allocation）主题模型得出街区的主题向量以及主题的POI共现模式;其次,引入多样性指数对街区的混合度进行度量,并依据自然断裂法将街区分为高混合街区、中等混合街区、低混合街区3类;最后,为了探究3类街区中的主题混合模式,先采用多元线性回归找出不同类街区中对混合度影响显著的主题,在此基础上对街区中的混合模式进行提取。结果表明：高混合街区的主题混合模式都是茶座餐厅主题与其他主题的混合;中等混合街区中的混合模式大多是以公司企业主题与住宅（商铺）主题再结合其他主题的混合;低混合街区中最典型的2种模式是茶座餐厅主题主导与风景名胜主题主导的接近单一的模式。不同的模式也体现了不同混合区的特征及其之间的差异,有助于对城市深度理解,从而为混合城市的建设提供参考。 相似文献
10.
线性加权回归模型的高原山地区域降水空间插值研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
在山地和高原区域,地形对降水影响比较显著。常规空间插值方法通常不考虑地形要素,插值精度有限。考虑到降水量与高程存在较强的相关关系,采用局部线性加权回归模型预测山地和高原区域的降水分布。推导了回归计算公式,并在ArcGIS 9.0中编程实现算法。选取美国德克萨斯州西北部地区进行局部线性加权回归空间插值,并与普通Kriging、倒距离加权法比较。误差分析表明:在地形复杂的地区,线性加权回归模型比传统方法有优势。 相似文献
11.
12.
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13.
针对系数矩阵含有一列常数列的线性回归总体最小二乘平差问题,提出一种总体最小二乘平差模型。在此基础上,推导了线性回归总体最小二乘的迭代算法,并采用一个算例验证了模型和算法的可行性。 相似文献
14.
LU Xiaoning DENG Wei ZHANG Shuqing 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2007,17(2):143-150
The Huolin River is one of the most important water sources for Xianghai wetland, Horqin wetland, and Chaganhu wetland in the western Songnen Plain of Northeast China. The annual runoff series of 46 years at Baiyun- hushuo Hydrologic Station, which is located in the middle reaches of the Huolin River, were analyzed by using wavelet analysis. Main objective was to discuss the periodic characteristics of the runoff, and examine the temporal patterns of the Huolin River recharging to the floodplain wetlands in the lower reaches of the river, and the corresponding effects of recharging variation on the environmental evolution of the wetlands. The results show that the annual runoff varied mainly at three time scales. The intensities of periodical signals at different time scales were strongly characterized by local distribution in its time frequency domain. The interdecadal variation at a scale of more than 30yr played a leading role in the temporal pattern of runoff variation, and at this scale, the runoff at Baiyunhushuo Hydrologic Station varied in turn of flood, draught and flood. Accordingly, the landscape of the floodplain wetlands presented periodic features, es- pecially prominent before the 1990s. Compared with intense human activities, the runoff periodic pattern at middle (10-20yr) and small (1-10yr) scales, which has relatively low energy, exerted unobvious effects on the environmental evolution of the floodplain wetlands, especially after the 1990s. 相似文献
15.
XU Jianhua CHEN Yaning LI Weihong DONG Shan 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2008,18(1):77-84
Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005, the paper reveals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory. The main conclusions are as follows： 1） From a large time scale point of view, i.e. the time scale of 16 （24） years, the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005. If the time scale is reduced to 8 （23） or 4 （22） years, the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale, but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period. 2） The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307, non-integral, which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteristics. The correlation dimension is above 3, which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process. 3） The Hurst exponent for the first period （1958-1973） is 0.5036, which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos. The Hurst exponents for the second （1974-1989） and third （1990-2005） periods are both greater than 0.50, which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods. The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005. 相似文献
16.
GRACE与GRACE-FO任务间的数据空缺导致无法连续监测陆地水储量变化。基于此,本文采用多元线性回归模型,以GRACE/GRACE-FO陆地水储量变化数据为参考值,以降水、气温和模型模拟的陆地水储量数据为预测参数,采用3种不同策略重构中国九大流域2002-04~2021-12连续的陆地水储量变化。结果表明,基于去趋势项和去季节项信号重构策略的重构结果略优于去趋势项信号重构策略,且两者结果均优于整体信号重构策略,在人类活动或冰川融化频繁的流域(如海滦河、长江、西南诸河和内陆河流域)这种优势更为明显。此外,重构结果的性能也受GRACE/GRACE-FO数据信噪比和预测参数与GRACE/GRCAE-FO数据的相关性影响。 相似文献
17.
Impacts of Climatic Factors on Runoff Coefficients in Source Regions of the Huanghe River 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
CHEN Liqun LIU Changming LI Yanping WANG Guoqiang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2007,17(1):047-055
Runoff coefficients of the source regions of the Huanghe River in 1956–2000 were analyzed in this paper. In the 1990s runoff of Tangnaihai Hydrologic Station of the Huanghe River experienced a serious decrease, which had at- tracted considerable attention. Climate changes have important impact on the water resources availability. From the view of water cycling, runoff coefficients are important indexes of water resources in a particular catchment. Kalinin baseflow separation technique was improved based on the characteristics of precipitation and streamflow. After the separation of runoff coefficient (R/P), baseflow coefficient (Br/P) and direct runoff coefficient (Dr/P) were estimated. Statistic analyses were applied to assessing the impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff coefficients (including Dr/P, Br/P and R/P). The results show that in the source regions of the Huanghe River, mean annual baseflow coefficient was higher than mean annual direct runoff coefficient. Annual runoff coefficients were in direct proportion to annual pre- cipitation and in inverse proportion to annual mean temperature. The decrease of runoff coefficients in the 1990s was closely related to the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the same period. Over different sub-basins of the source regions of the Huanghe River, runoff coefficients responded differently to precipitation and temperature. In the area above Jimai Hydrologic Station where annual mean temperature is –3.9oC, temperature is the main factor in- fluencing the runoff coefficients. Runoff coefficients were in inverse relation to temperature, and precipitation had nearly no impact on runoff coefficients. In subbasin between Jimai and Maqu Hydrologic Station Dr/P was mainly affected by precipitation while R/P and Br/P were both significantly influenced by precipitation and temperature. In the area be-tween Maqu and Tangnaihai hydrologic stations all the three runoff coefficients increased with the rising of annual precipitation, while direct runoff coefficient was inversely proportional to temperature. In the source regions of the Huanghe River with the increase of average annual temperature, the impacts of temperature on runoff coefficients be-come insignificant. 相似文献
18.
Data taken in two large scale ocean observations in China in summer 1959 and 1982 were used to analyze the residual current off the Changjiang (Yangtze) River mouth. The currents at surface off the mouth in July 1959 and 1982 flow northeastward and eastward due to the river discharge, the current speed was larger in 1982 than in 1959. All the bottom currents flow landward due to baroclinic effect. The surface current was controlled by the river runoff and the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC). A return current at surface off the mouth was observed in September 1959. In general, the bottom currents were controlled by the TWC in most study area in addition to the runoff near the mouth. Although driven by 3-D model with the monthly averaged forces (river discharge, wind stress, baroclinic effect, open boundary water volume flux and tidal mixing) in August, the simulated circulations were basically consistent with the observed ones with episodic time manner. 相似文献
19.
P. B. Hunukumbura S.B. Weerakoon Srikantha Herath 《山地科学学报》2007,4(4):309-320
A model to derive direct runoff hydrograph for an ungauged basin using the physical properties of the basin is presented. The basin is divided into grid cells and canal elements. Overland flow is generated from each grid cell of the basin by application of continuous effective rainfall of 1 mm/hr to the basin. The flow generated is routed through downstream grid cells and the canal elements using the kinematic wave approach. The travel time for direct runoff from each grid cell to the basin outlet is calculated and the S-curve is derived for the basin. The S-curve is used to derive the unit hydrograph of a given duration for the basin. The model, referred as Cell-basin model was applied to the Upper Kotmale Basin in Sri Lanka and the model predictions of direct runoff hydrographs for rainfall events agreed with the observations to a reasonable accuracy. Comparison of the unit hydrographs obtained from the model and from the conventional Snyder’s synthetic unit hydrograph using regionalized parameters assuming the basin as an ungauged basin, with the unit hydrograph derived from the observations showed that the model predicted unit hydrograph was more suitable than that obtained by Snyder’s method for Sri Lankan up country basins. Thus, the present model is a useful tool to obtain direct runoff hydrograph for ungauged basins. 相似文献