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1.
《海洋湖沼通报》2016,(6)
本文利用ERA-40再分析资料对太平洋-日本(Pacific-Japan)遥相关型(简称P-J)在不同ENSO(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation)事件时的位置特征进行了分析研究,并评估了第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)各模式对P-J遥相关型的模拟能力,利用CMIP5模式数据验证P-J遥相关型与赤道中东太平洋海温异常之间的相关性。结果表明,ENSO对P-J遥相关型的位置有影响:El Ni?o年,P-J遥相关型位置相对偏西偏南;La Ni?a年,P-J遥相关型位置则相对偏东偏北。ENSO对P-J遥相关型强度有影响:ENSO事件年赤道中东太平洋海温与次年夏季P-J遥相关型强度相关明显,正常年两者没有相关性。本文评估了CMIP5中24个耦合模式,发现大多数模式能很好得模拟出P-J型,并且全球变暖对PJ型位置变化的影响较小,而赤道中东太平洋海温异常对P-J遥相关型强度影响较大。 相似文献
2.
渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据1951-2013年间的渤海冰情等级资料,利用最大熵谱分析、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了渤海冰情等级的年际和年代际变化特征,探讨了局地气候、大气环流、ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对海冰的影响。结果表明,渤海海冰具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并在1972年前后发生了一次由重到轻的气候跃变,在跃变后冰情较跃变前平均降低了0.7级。相关分析与合成分析结果显示,渤海冰情的年际变化除受局地气候的影响外,还受西太平洋副热带高压(副高)、极涡和欧亚环流的共同调控,特别在1972年以后,秋季副高、冬季欧亚和亚洲纬向环流对渤海冰情的年际变化均有重要影响,可作为渤海海冰预报的重要因子,而春季PDO、ENSO、冬季副高及欧亚和亚洲经向环流则是渤海冰情年代际变化的影响因素。 相似文献
3.
ENSO循环过程中次表层海洋信号的传播和变化 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用SODA等资料分析了热带太平洋次表层海洋要素的变化特征,结果表明,ENSO循环过程中次表层异常海温信号在赤道外向西传播的路径与温跃层深度的分布有一定关系,10oN附近是气候平均温跃层深度的极小值区域,温跃层在该区域形成了一个从东到西的阻隔带,阻挡了来自赤道地区的ENSO信号继续向北传播,从而转向西传播;而南半球温跃层深度的气候分布不具备这一特征,不利于ENSO信号在南半球的向西传播。进一步的研究还表明,ENSO信号在整个循环过程中,异常海温的主周期是变化的,特别是在沿10oN附近向西传播的过程中,ENSO信号的主周期变化较大。推断西太平洋暖池区域的ENSO信号除了在循环过程中自东太平洋10oN传来的以外,还受其他因素的影响,例如局地的大气变化引起的海温异常,以及来自中高纬度的异常海温信号等因素。 相似文献
4.
热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文利用1950-2015年间Hadley环流中心海冰和海温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响,并从大气环流和净表面热通量两个角度探讨了可能的物理机制。结果表明,在ENSO事件发展年的夏、秋季节,EP型与CP型El Niño事件与北极海冰异常的联系无明显信号。而La Niña事件期间北极海冰出现显著异常,并且EP型与CP型La Niña之间存在明显差异。EP型La Niña发生时,北极地区巴伦支海、喀拉海关键区海冰异常减少,CP型La Niña事件则对应着东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海地区海冰异常增加。在EP型La Niña发展年的夏、秋季节,热带太平洋海温异常通过遥相关波列,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海平面气压为负异常并与中纬度气压正异常共同构成类似AO正位相的结构,形成的风场异常有利于北大西洋暖水的输入,同时造成暖平流,偏高的水汽含量进一步加强了净表面热通量收入,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰异常减少。而在CP型La Niña发展年的夏季,东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海关键区受其东侧气旋式环流的影响,以异常北风分量占主导,将海冰从极点附近由北向南输送到关键区,海冰异常增加,而净表面热通量的作用较小。 相似文献
5.
印度洋-太平洋海温的年际、年代际异常及其对亚洲季风的影响 总被引：31，自引：5，他引：26
运用EOF分析方法,对近50a的印度洋-太平洋SST的年际、年代际变化特征进行了分析,并在此基础上进行了数值试验.研究表明:在近50a中,SST的第一气候模态与年代际尺度变化相对应,并经历了两次气候突变,分别在1956年和1976年前后.第二气候模态与ENSO事件相对应,其空间分布反映了厄尔尼诺发生时SST的异常分布.中国东部降水以及亚洲季风异常不仅与ENSO事件有关,而且受到年代际气候背景场的影响.诊断和模拟结果具有较好的一致性. 相似文献
6.
两极冷源和热带海洋热源的相互作用 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
两极海冰和热带海洋SST的异常变化对全球气候监测和预报都是极为重要的指标.本文使用了南极、北极海冰月平均距平资料和ENSO事件五要素,即SOI和4个Nino海区的SST月平均距平值,计算了各区海冰之间以及与ENSO事件的逐月移动交叉相关时间序列,分析其变化特征,寻找两个波发生相互作用最强的时期.(1)发现北极海冰在两极海冰相互作用过程中起主导作用.北极海冰异常影响到后期南极海冰的异常变化.(2)赤道中太平洋的海温(SST)与南极威德尔海区的海冰(SPI3)和罗斯海区的海冰(SPI2)有强的相互作用,并且具有明显的周期性变化.SST与SPI3的周期是5～6a,与SPI2的周期是准11a,这些周期变化尺度与它们自身变化的周期有关.当两者周期相近时,在位相差一定的时期发生共振,产生强烈的相互作用最佳时期. 相似文献
7.
《海洋气象学报》2018,(4)
秋季是西北太平洋热带气旋平均强度最强的季节,热带气旋累积能量(accumulated cyclone energy,ACE)是热带气旋平均强度的表征指标,基于1979—2015年日本气象厅最佳路径热带气旋数据集,以及美国冰雪中心海冰数据和哈得来环流中心海温数据,利用回归分析和多元逐步回归等方法,对秋季西北太平洋ACE指数进行了分析和预报。研究表明:秋季西北太平洋ACE指数具有显著的年际变化特征,与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关,最大和最小值分别出现在1991年的厄尔尼诺年和1999年的拉尼娜年,在厄尔尼诺发展年的秋季ACE一般较强,而在拉尼娜衰减年的秋季热带气旋强度则较弱; ACE指数变化受来自北极海冰变化强迫中纬度异常波列的影响及其受到厄尔尼诺海温模态的调制;由于海冰在波弗特海的异常增多,强迫对流层高层夏季出现类似北半球环球遥相关型异常波列,波列正压下传,使得夏秋季西北太平洋副热带高压东退北移;副热带高压活动的变化和太平洋海温的异常分布影响了局地的环流,热带气旋生成源地弱的垂直风切变区域偏东和涡度显著增大有利于热带气旋在暖海洋上发展强盛。最后进行建模预报,预报效果为0.69。若单独使用海温或海冰作为唯一要素来预报,预报效果将大大降低。 相似文献
8.
《海洋气象学报》2019,(4)
利用1979—2013年NCEP再分析向外长波辐射、降水率和ENSO指数资料,运用联合经验正交函数等诊断方法,分析了南海区域各季对流活动年内、年际尺度变化特征和年际变化与同期ENSO指数的关系。结果表明:南海南部对流活动各月之间少变,南海中北部区域对流被抑制期和活跃期均较为持久,对流活跃区5月中旬中期跳跃北扩,9月后由北向南缓慢撤退;南海区域秋、冬和春季变化表现出良好的全区一致性,冬季对流活动较好地保留了上年秋季的异常状态,并进一步稳定地持续到春季;秋、冬和春季活动的年际变化很可能受ENSO调制,厄尔尼诺状态下,南海对流活动受抑制,拉尼娜状态下相反;夏季对流活动表现出南北反向型和全区一致型的两类重要年际变化形态,前者可能受ENSO的调制,厄尔尼诺抑制南端对流而使北端对流更活跃,后者有明显的线性趋势,气候变暖使夏季南海上空对流更活跃;春季对流的异常状态很难持续到夏季。 相似文献
9.
为了揭示南极海冰年际变化的机制,利用南极海冰边缘区密集度和海面风资料,选择南极海冰边缘区海冰密集度年际变化较大的5个海区进行统计分析.研究表明：南半球冬季在这5个海区海冰密集度年际变化与南侧西风的年际变化有较密切的关系,南半球冬季南极海冰边缘区南侧西风形成向北的Ekman输运对海冰边缘区的海冰密集度有重要的影响,这种影响在南太平洋和南大西洋比在南印度洋东部更明显. 相似文献
10.
北太平洋涛动(NPO)和东亚冬季风(EAWM)二者是热带外重要的气候系统,不仅对我国甚至对整个东亚气候都有重要影响,对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响也越发受到关注。本研究利用HadISST海温资料以及美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)月平均气象场再分析资料,采用相关回归等统计方法分析研究了冬季NPO和EAWM对次年冬季ENSO发生、发展影响的差异,并分析了产生差异的可能原因。结果表明,冬季NPO和EAWM对次年冬季ENSO的影响无论是从相关性大小还是触发的ENSO强度上来说都存在明显的差异;进一步分析冬季NPO和EAWM回归的海表面温度(SST)场相关的降水和风场的季节演化特征发现:在热带太平洋区域,冬季NPO和EAWM通过激发赤道西太平洋区域西风和降水异常建立起了相应的海气正反馈机制,而这种正反馈机制在强度和位置上的不同,造成了对ENSO影响的差异。冬季NPO和EAWM年代际变化上的差异可能是另一原因。 相似文献
11.
This study uses the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR) to investigate the responses of the Southern Hemisphere(SH) extratropical climate to two types of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)—the eastern Pacific(EP) type and the central Pacific(CP) type in different seasons. The responses are denoted by the anomalies of climate variables associated with one-standard-deviation increase in the Ni?o3 or Ni?o4 index. The results show that in austral spring the differences in the ENSO-related anomaly(ERA) patterns of atmospheric circulation between the EP ENSO period(1979–1998) and CP ENSO period(1999–2010) are mainly associated with the change in the ENSO-PSA2 relationship. Such differences affect the ERA fields of surface air temperature and mixed layer temperature, and finally result in significant differences in sea-ice concentration anomalies in the Atlantic sector. In austral summer, significant correlation exists between the variations of SAM and both of the variations of Ni?o3 and Ni?o4 in 1979–1998, while the correlation between SAM and Ni?o4 disappears in 1999–2010. For all seasons, the strength of the climate ERAs depend on if there are close relationship between ENSO and the major climate variation modes of the SH extratropics. For the climate variables, the ERA patterns of surface air temperature are generally controlled by surface wind anomalies and mirrored by the mixed layer temperature anomalies. The mixed layer depth anomalies are primarily modulated by surface heat flux anomalies and occasionally by anomalous wind. There are strikingly strong anomalies of surface heat flux in the autumn of 1979–1998 related to the Ni?o3 variation, the period when there is only significant correlation between ENSO and PSA2. There are no evidence that the SH extratropical climate variability induced by Ni?o3 variations are stronger in the EP-ENSO period, and that variability induced by Ni?o4 variations are stronger in the CP-ENSO period. 相似文献
12.
Teleconnection between El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and anomalous Antarctic sea-ice variation has been studied extensively.In this study,impacts of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean on Antarctic sea-ice change were investigated during Janaury 1979 and October 2009.Based on previous research results,sea areas in the western Indian Ocean (WIO;50°–70°E,10 °–20 °S) are selected for the resreach.All variables showed 1-10 year interannual timescales by Fast Founer Tranaform (FFT) transformation.Results show that i) strong WIO signals emerged in the anomalous changes of Antarctic sea-ice concentration;ii) significant positive correlations occurred around the Antarctic Peninsula,Ross Sea and its northwest peripheral sea region iii) negative correlation occurred in the Indian Ocean section of the Southern Ocean,Amundsen Seas,and the sea area over northern Ross Sea;and iv) the atmospheric anomalies associated with the WIO including wind,meridional heat flux,and surface air temperature over southern high latitudes were the possible factors for the teleconnection. 相似文献
13.
An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to identify a Southern Ocean southeast Pacific intrinsic mode of low frequency variability. Using CORE data a comprehensive suite of experiments were carried out to elucidate excitation and amplification responses of this intrinsic mode to low frequency forcing (ENSO, SAM) and stochastic forcing due to high frequency winds. Subsurface anomalies were found to teleconnect the Pacific and Atlantic regions of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) thermocline. The Pacific region of the ACC is characterised by intrinsic baroclinic disturbances that respond to both SAM and ENSO, while the Atlantic sector of the ACC is sensitive to higher frequency winds that act to amplify thermocline anomalies propagating downstream from the Pacific. Non-stationary cluster analysis was used to identify the system’s dynamical regimes and characterise meta-stability, persistence and transitions between the respective states. This analysis reveals significant trends, indicating fundamental changes to the meta-stability of the ocean dynamics in response to changes in atmospheric forcing. Intrinsic variability in sea-ice concentration was found to be coupled to thermocline processes. Sea-ice variability localised in the Atlantic was most closely associated with high frequency weather forcing. The SAM was associated with a circumpolar sea-ice response whereas ENSO was found to be a major driver of sea-ice variability only in the Pacific. This simulation study identifies plausible mechanisms that determine the predictability of the Southern Ocean climate on multi-decadal timescales. 相似文献
14.
海洋再分析资料中IOD-ENSO遥相关的海洋通道机制分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文利用滞后相关分析,研究了海洋再分析资料（SODA、ORAS4和GODAS）中的IOD-ENSO滞后遥相关关系,并与观测资料进行对比。结果显示,3套再分析资料中热带东南印度洋秋季海表温度/海表高度异常和赤道太平洋冷舌次年秋季海表温度/海表高度异常之间显著相关,与观测结果一致。在次表层,观测和再分析资料均显示,热带东南印度洋秋季海表温度异常与赤道太平洋次表层海温异常之间的显著相关关系在冬季至次年秋季沿赤道太平洋垂向剖面向东移动,并于次年夏季和秋季在冷舌区上升至海表。热带东南印度洋和赤道太平洋冷舌滞后1年的相关关系是由海洋通道机制引起的,即IOD事件引起印尼贯穿流流量异常,导致赤道太平洋温跃层异常,激发赤道Kelvin波向东传播,从而影响赤道中-东太平洋冷舌海表温度异常。观测及SODA与ORAS4资料中,热带东南印度洋和赤道太平洋冷舌滞后1年的相关关系在去除ENSO信号后仍然显著,表明海洋通道机制是独立于ENSO事件的;而在GODAS资料中,这些显著相关关系在去除ENSO信号后消失。印尼贯穿流流量异常和Niño3.4及DMI（Dipole Mode Index）指数之间超前-滞后12个月的相关关系显示,在SODA和ORAS4资料中,印尼贯穿流流量同时受到ENSO和IOD的影响,与观测结果一致;而在GODAS中,印尼贯穿流流量异常仅与Niño3.4指数显著相关,极少受到IOD事件的影响,这部分解释了GODAS资料中去除ENSO信号后,IOD-ENSO滞后遥相关关系消失的原因。 相似文献
15.
Evidence has been found for the teleconnection of Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) events in the southern high latitude sea
surface pressure field, although the mechanisms that might lead to such far-reaching links remain unresolved. Based on the
teleconnection pattern between IOD and the climate anomaly in the upper troposphere, we propose one such mechanism here: the
energy propagation theory of the atmospheric planetary wave. Ray traces of the atmospheric planetary waves suggest that the
energy propagation of the waves could be responsible for the teleconnection between IOD and tropospheric climate anomalies
in southern high latitudes. 相似文献
16.
《Ocean Modelling》2008,20(2):157-169
The dynamical link between mean state biases and dominant timescales of interannual variability is examined using the output from two state-of-the-art coupled model simulations, results from an ocean-only simulation forced with observed surface fields, and various observational data sets. The focus of this study is the relative role of the mean upper ocean density structure vs. anomalous wind forcing in controlling the spectral characteristics of tropical Pacific interannual variability. It is shown that an extensive South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) creates a potential vorticity (PV) barrier in the Southern Hemisphere similar to the one associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Northern Hemisphere in both climate models. The PV barrier in the Southern Hemisphere strongly constrains the mean equatorward flow in the ocean model pycnocline, creating a “choke point” for the mean flow around 10°S. It is then examined whether the PV barrier can also limit the anomalous flow associated with mass recharge/discharge to/from the equatorial thermocline at interannual timescales. If the anomalous flow were impeded by the mean PV structure the meridional extent of the area involved in the mass recharge/discharge process would be narrower, leading to a shorter adjustment (and ENSO) timescale. Comparison of the two climate models, both of which have similarly erroneous PV structures in the southern tropical Pacific, but different interannual timescales, shows that the meridional extent of the anomalous meridional transport is primarily controlled by the latitudinal location of the wind stress curl anomalies, while the mean state bias in the Southern Hemisphere does not seem to have any significant influence. 相似文献
17.
C. J. C. REASON 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2000,52(2):203-223
Observations of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST), surface air temperature and winds over the Southern Hemisphere are presented and an ocean general circulation model applied towards investigating links between the SST variability and that of the overlying atmosphere. The results suggest that the dynamical effect of the wind stress anomalies is significant mainly in the neighbourhood of the western boundary currents and their outflows across the mid‐latitudes of each Southern Hemisphere basin (more so in the South Indian and South Atlantic than in the South Pacific Ocean) and in the equatorial upwelling zones. Over most of the subtropics to mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, changes in net surface heat flux (particularly in latent heat) appear to be more important for the SST variability than dynamical effects. Implications of these results for modelling and understanding low frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere as well as possible links with mechanisms of decadal/interdecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere are discussed. 相似文献
18.
An index of ENSO in the Pacific during early boreal winter is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven West African coastal upwelling region from 10°N to 26°N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, leading to warm (cold) ENSO events being associated with a relaxation (intensification) of the Atlantic trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the north Atlantic. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warnings of large changes in the West African upwelling several months in advance is successfully tested using data from the 1998 and 1999 ENSO events. 相似文献
19.
回顾了对南印度洋副热带海气相互作用的研究,总结了南印度洋偶极子事件背景下的气候变化。印度洋海表温度的方差表明南印度洋是整个印度洋海温变率最强的区域,年际海温变化最显著的特征就是海温呈现西南东北向的偶极子型分布,被称为南印度洋偶极子(Southern Indian Ocean Dipole, SIOD)。南印度洋海温偶极子的形成主要是受大尺度大气环流调整的影响。南印度洋副热带反气旋环流异常引起了印度洋热带东风异常和副热带西风异常的变化,影响了潜热通量、上升流和Ekman热输送,进而引起了海温变化。SIOD对热带和热带外大气环流也有影响,尤其会影响亚洲夏季风降水异常,例如我国的降水异常和南印度洋偶极子海温异常具有显著相关关系。此外,SIOD模态所引起的经向环流异常与南海、菲律宾地区的反气旋环流异常也有紧密联系。 相似文献
20.
南海冬季海浪的时空变率特征 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the waves in the South China Sea(SCS) in the boreal winter during the period of 1979/1980–2011/2012 have been investigated based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts interim(ERA-Interim) reanalysis dataset. The results show that the leading mode of significant wave height anomalies(SWHA) in the SCS exhibits significant interannual variation and a decadal shift around the mid-1990 s, and features a basin-wide pattern in the entire SCS with a center located in the west of the Luzon Strait. The decadal change from a weak regime to a strong regime is mainly associated with the enhancement of winter monsoon modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO). The interannual variation of the SWHA has a significant negative correlation with the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the same season and the preceding autumn. For a better understanding of the physical mechanism between the SCS ocean waves and ENSO, further investigation is made by analyzing atmospheric circulation. The impact of the ENSO on the SWHA over the SCS is bridged by the East Asian winter monsoon and Pacific-East Asian teleconnection in the lower troposphere. During the El Ni?o(La Ni?a), the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone(cyclone) dominates over the Western North Pacific, helps to weaken(enhance) East Asian winter monsoon and then emerges the negative(positive) SWHA in the SCS. 相似文献