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1.
Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones.
The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses
of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe
cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated part of the eastern coast
of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000
people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than
15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters
associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is
to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. 相似文献
2.
Bimal Kanti Paul 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(2):289-304
Cyclone Sidr, a Category IV storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people.
Despite a similar magnitude, Sidr claimed far fewer lives than Cyclone Gorky, also a Category IV storm, which struck Bangladesh
in 1991 causing an estimated 140,000 fatalities. The relatively low number of deaths experienced with Sidr is widely considered
the result of Bangladesh government’s efforts to provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and successful evacuation
of coastal residents from the projected path of Cyclone Sidr. Using information collected from both primary and secondary
sources, this study identified several other reasons for the unexpectedly lower mortality associated with Cyclone Sidr relative
to Cyclone Gorky. Fewer casualties may be attributed to a number of physical characteristics of Cyclone Sidr, such as duration
of the storm and storm surge, landfall time and site, varied coastal ecology, and coastal embankment. This article recommends
improvements to the cyclone warning systems, establishment of more public cyclone shelters, and implementation of an education
campaign in coastal areas to increase the utilization of public shelters for future cyclone events. 相似文献
3.
Bangladesh is highly susceptible to tropical cyclones. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of climatological studies on the tropical
cyclones of Bangladesh. The Global Tropical Cyclone Climatic Atlas (GTCCA) lists historical storm track information for all
the seven tropical cyclone ocean basins including the North Indian Ocean. Using GIS, tropical cyclones that made landfall
in Bangladesh during 1877–2003 are identified and examined from the climatological perspective. For the convenience of study,
the coast of Bangladesh is divided into five segments and comparisons are made among the coastal segments in terms of cyclone
landfall and vulnerability. There is a large variability in the year-to-year occurrence of landfalling tropical cyclones in
Bangladesh. Most of the tropical cyclones (70%) hit in the months of May–June and October–November generally show the well-known
pattern of pre- and post-monsoon cyclone seasons in that region. 相似文献
4.
Gazi Md. Khalil 《Natural Hazards》1993,8(3):263-281
A very severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds of over 240 km/h struck the coastal areas of Bangladesh in the full moon night of 29 April 1991. The path of the eye, close to the shore, raised a storm surge of unusual height, reportedly more than 9 m above the mean sea level, which devastated the offshore islands and the mainland coast. The damage to the physical infrastructure of the port of Chittagong and adjoining industrial area has been colossal, and recovery will take years. Death tolls from the cyclone, storm surge and its aftermath exceeded 145 000 making it one of the world's major natural disasters of this century.This paper is concerned with examining the magnitude and intensity of the disaster. It analyses how the people of Bangladesh, and the environment in which they live, were affected by the cyclone. A brief account is presented of loss of life and of the damage suffered in various sectors, including agriculture, industry, and physical infrastructure.The paper lays emphasis on the need of building a sufficient number of multipurpose cyclone shelters in the disaster-prone coastal areas of Bangladesh. Adequate measures should be taken for evacuating people from vulnerable areas and putting them into these shelters in the event of a cyclonic storm. Simplification of the current cyclone warning system is recommended.The difficulties of providing relief to the survivors are discussed. And finally, the need for improvement of the communication infrastructure in the coastal areas is highlighted. 相似文献
5.
Numerical Modelling of Storm Surge in the Head Bay of Bengal Using Location Specific Model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
The head Bay of Bengal region, which covers part of Orissa and west Bengal in India as well as Bangladesh, is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones which cause extensive damage. There has been extensive loss of life and property due to extreme events in this region. Shallow nature of the Bay, presence of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna deltaic system and high tidal range are responsible for storm surges in this region. In view of this a location specific fine resolution numerical modelis developed for the simulation of storm surges. To represent mostof the islands and rivers in this region a 3km grid resolution is adopted. Several numerical experiments are carried out to compute the storm surges using the wind stress forcings representative of 1974, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1994 and 1999 cyclones, which crossed this region. The model computed surges are in good agreement with the available observations/estimates. 相似文献
6.
Indu Jain P. Chittibabu Neetu Agnihotri S. K. Dube P. C. Sinha A. D. Rao 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):71-82
Coastal flooding induced by storm surges associated with tropical cyclones is one of the greatest natural hazards sometimes
even surpassing earthquakes. Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Indian seas is not high, the coastal region
of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar suffer most in terms of life and property caused by the surges. Therefore, a location-specific
storm surge prediction model for the coastal regions of Myanmar has been developed to carry out simulations of the 1975 Pathein,
1982 Gwa, 1992 Sandoway and 1994 Sittwe cyclones. The analysis area of the model covers from 8° N to 23° N and 90° E to 100° E.
A uniform grid distance of about 9 km is taken along latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The coastal boundaries in the
model are represented by orthogonal straight line segments. Using this model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate
the storm surge heights associated with past severe cyclonic storms which struck the coastal regions of Myanmar. The model
results are in agreement with the limited available surge estimates and observations. 相似文献
7.
The objective of the present study is to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges at the household level in existing and changing status of households. The primary data were collected from a cyclone prone coastal area in Bangladesh, through structured questionnaire and GPS survey, key informants interviews and field observations. In order to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors geographical information systems based Structured Query Language (SQL) query has been used. The study simulated the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges on the basis of collected data through pre-designed SQL query. The study found the number of most vulnerable households under existing conditions and how much it will be afterward of a favourable or adverse change of the factors of vulnerability associated with households. The major findings of the study unveil that the socioeconomic and physical factors of human vulnerability have important function to determine the household’s level of vulnerability to the cyclone induced disaster. It has been demonstrated that the degree of vulnerability of households is changed with its physical and socioeconomic status. This study provides a conceptual model for assessing and simulating vulnerability to other natural hazards like floods, droughts, riverbank erosions and so forth. This study highlights that the households’ intrinsic vulnerable conditions are responsible for its defencelessness to the hazards and the reduction of vulnerability is the first measure of integrated and sustainable disaster management in the coastal Bangladesh. 相似文献
8.
The Orissa super cyclone which crossed the Orissa coastal region near Paradip on October 29, 1999 proved to be disastrous.
The strong winds, torrential rains with heavy rainfall and high storm surge associated with the cyclone caused havoc that
resulted in the death of thousands of people, cattle and extensive damage to agricultural land, paddy crop, transmission lines,
power supply, roads and buildings. In the present study, a fine resolution finite element model is used to simulate surges
due to this super cyclone. The model results are compared with observed surges available from post-storm survey reports. Comparison
of results show that they are in good agreement with the observed surges, and the finite element model can be used for real
time surge forecasts. 相似文献
9.
A. D. Rao P. L. N. Murty Indu Jain R. S. Kankara S. K. Dube T. S. Murty 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(3):1431-1441
The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding. 相似文献
10.
P. Chittibabu S. K. Dube J. B. Macnabb T. S. Murty A. D. Rao U. C. Mohanty P. C. Sinha 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):455-485
Storm surges generated by the strong tangential wind stressesand normal atmospheric pressure gradients at the sea surface due to tropical cyclones (TC'S)have been studied with the goal of detecting any significant and systematic changes due to climatechange. Cyclone and storm surge data for the 19th and 20th centuries for the Bay of Bengalcoast of the state of Orissa in India are available to varying degrees of quality and detail,the data being more scientific since the advent of the India Meteorological Department in 1875.Based on more precise data for the period 1971 to 2000, statistical projections have been madeon the probable intensities of tropical cyclones for various return periods. The super cyclone ofOctober 29, 1999 (SC1999) appears to have a return period of about 50 years. The cyclones of1831, 1885 and possibly the one in 1895 could have been super cyclones. During the 19th century,there were 72 flooding events associated with cyclones, whereas in the 20th century therewere only 56 events. There was no observational evidence to suggest that there was an increaseeither in the frequency or intensity of cyclones or storm surges on the coast of Orissa. However,the impact of cyclones and surges is on the increase due to increase of population and coastalinfrastructure. 相似文献
11.
The purpose of this research is to explore indigenous coping strategies and identify underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of coping strategies in three distinct cyclone-prone coastal villages of Bangladesh. The study finds that cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon in coastal Bangladesh; hence people are used to adjusting their lifestyle and adopting their own coping strategies intelligently. Adoption of a particular set of coping strategies depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class, dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure, external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing mechanisms within the community. Indigenous cyclone disaster prevention and mitigation strategies significantly minimize the vulnerability of the people. Under extreme situations, when such disasters surpass the shock-bearing capacity of the victims, informal risk sharing mechanisms through social bonding and social safety-nets become vital for short-term survival and long-term livelihood security. Therefore, proper monitoring and understanding of local indigenous coping strategies are essential in order to target the most vulnerable groups exposed to disasters. Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management activities. The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief dependency by disaster victims. 相似文献
12.
In probabilistic terms, Bangladesh is prone, to at least one major 'tropical cyclone' every year. This situation is primarily due to the geographical location of Bangladesh in tropical Asia, and to its concave coastline and shallow continental shelf. The devastating impact of such cyclones on humans stems from a combination of intense human occupation of the area, predominance of traditional sociocultural values and religion, the precarious socioeconomic conditions of the majority of the coastal inhabitants, and the lack of a coordinated institutional disaster planning and management strategy. Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last decade; among these events, the 1991 April cyclone was the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions.An initial study was carried out in the coastal regions of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of 29 April 1991. This research examined the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It was found that the identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, the monitoring of the hazard event, and the dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. The present study followed up on the initial research by surveying 267 respondents with an elaborate survey instrument, focusing on the most crucial academic and planning issues identified in the 1991 study. In particular, the nature and characteristics of the cyclone preparedness of the coastal inhabitants were assessed by the study; other factors considered included rural-urban variations, mainland-island differences, the nature and role of previous knowledge, and the disaster experience.The survey results show the variety of indigenous adjustment mechanisms that help to rehabilitate the survivors; also visible are the profound roles played by the social inequality variables and the magnitude of physical vulnerability in influencing the disaster loss and recovery process. The study recommends that hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that the cyclone warning system should incorporate the human response to warnings as its constituent part, and in this way accommodating human dimensions in its operational design. 相似文献
13.
Jorge L. Pousa Enrique E. D’Onofrio Mónica M. E. Fiore Eduardo E. Kruse 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,68(8):2325-2335
The Argentine shore of the Rio de la Plata estuary and its southwards adjacent maritime front are normally affected by extratropical positive and negative storm surges that affect human activities seriously. Positive surges can raise the water level in the estuary by more than 3 m over the predicted tide; thus, flooding the coastal plain where over 13 million people live and causing extensive property damage. Sometimes, there has been loss of life too. Although less populated than the coastal plain, the maritime front has many important tourist resorts and also undergoes severe beach erosion processes and loss of property owing to positive surges. Negative surges are particularly troublesome in the Rio de la Plata because they critically affect navigation safety and drinking water supply by lowering the predicted water level in an amount that sometimes reached more than 4 m. A remarkable point is that the same storm event can simultaneously give rise to a positive surge on the maritime front and a negative one in the Rio de la Plata. The environmental impacts of positive storm surges are strongly aggravated by human intervention. At the same time, sea level rise due to global climatic change has also its influence. 相似文献
14.
Coastal hazard mapping in the Cuddalore region, South India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
It is estimated that nearly one-third of India’s population lives on the coast and is dependent on its resources. Shoreline erosion, storm surges and extreme events have resulted in severe loss of human life, damage to ecosystems and to property along the coast of India. Studies carried out in the Cuddalore region of South India reveal that this low-lying coastal zone, which suffered significant erosion during the last century, has been severely affected by the tsunami of 2004, storm floods and cyclones. In response to these impacts, a variety of coastal defense measures and adaptation strategies have been implemented in the region, although with only limited success. In order to inform future coastal planning in this region, the work reported here identifies a composite hazard line, seaward of which coastal flooding events will have a return interval of less than 1 in 100 years. The area landward of the coastal hazard line will be unaffected by 100 years of coastal erosion at present day rates. The study directly supports the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan of the Tamil Nadu State through the identification and assessment of coastal hazards and the overall vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion. The key results from this pilot study will be used directly by the State of Tamil Nadu in the protection of the coastal livelihoods, better conservation measures and sustainable development along the coast. This study is a step toward mapping the hazard line for the entire coast of India that helps protect human lives and property. 相似文献
15.
Indu Jain P. Chittibabu Neetu Agnihotri S. K. Dube P. C. Sinha A. D. Rao 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):67-73
The northeastern sector of the Arabian Sea, which covers the Gujarat coast of India and western coast of Pakistan, is a region
vulnerable to extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the
Arabian Sea is not high, the coastal regions of India and Pakistan suffer in terms of loss of life and property caused by
the surges. In view of this a location-specific fine resolution model is developed for the Gujarat coast of India and adjoining
Pakistan coast. The east–west and north–south grid distance is about 3.0 km. Using this model, numerical experiments are carried
out to simulate the surges generated by 1999 and 2001 cyclones which struck the Pakistan coast. The model computed surges
are in agreement with the available observational estimates. 相似文献
16.
17.
18.
Iware Matsuda 《GeoJournal》1993,31(4):319-325
The 1991 Cyclone claimed more than 140,000 lives in Bangladesh. However, comparison of human casualty figures between the cyclones of 1970 and 1991 points to the effectiveness of cyclone shelters constructed after the 1970 disaster. Many inaccuracies of the regional data on social and natural circumstances affecting human losses, such as location of cyclone shelters, refuge-seeking behavior and poor population data are discussed. Based on field studies, comprehensive countermeasures are recommended, and it is mentioned that non-structural countermeasures are important to make structural ones more effective. 相似文献
19.
Coastal flooding occurs due to storm surges generated by tropical and extra-tropical cyclones on the globe. The meteorological
forcing fields for the generation of storm surges are the tangential surface wind stress on the ocean surface and the normal
atmospheric pressure gradients associated with the weather systems. The large scale forcing from the cyclones is referred
to as the synoptic scale and storm surge prediction from synoptic scale forcing is well developed and is reasonably satisfactory
around the world. However, coastal flooding also occurs from weather systems, with forcing on a meso-scale and also from remote
forcing. It is proposed here that the term “Storm surge” be used to only refer to coastal flooding from synoptic scale forcing
and the terminology “Rissaga” be used for coastal flooding from meso-scale forcing. For flooding due to remote forcing, a
new term “Kallakkadal” is proposed. 相似文献
20.
Geraldine M. Li 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(3):365-382
Different individuals and groups perceive risk differently. This can significantly affect risk management and mitigation practices
and requirements. This paper presents findings from a study of tropical cyclone risk perceptions in the city of Darwin in
the Northern Territory of Australia. Primary in-depth interview data and other secondary data are analysed, focussing in particular
on wind damage, storm surge and life safety risk perceptions of residents since Cyclone Tracy, which impacted in 1974, and
perceptions of future climate change as it relates to tropical cyclone risk. The analysis reveals that a number of perceptions
prevail. In particular, the study reveals a wide difference of perceptions between short-term residents (Group 1) and long-term
and expert residents (Group 2) in relation to wind damage, storm surge and life safety risk. It also reveals a large division
between laypersons (Group 3) and expert residents’ (Group 4) perceptions of climate change risk as it relates to tropical
cyclone risk. The author recommends that flexible, multiple and integrative management and mitigation approaches are required
to deal with such different perceptions and divisions in the resident population. 相似文献