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1.
An assessment of the likely benefits of assimilating in situ temperature (T) and salinity (S) observations from repeat glider transects and surface velocity observations from high-frequency radar arrays into an eddy-resolving ocean model is presented. The deployment of new shelf observation platforms around Australia is being undertaken through the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System program. In this study, various options for an observing system along the coast of New South Wales, Australia, are assessed for their benefits to an ocean forecast and reanalysis system. The forecast system considered here uses ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) for data assimilation. Using error estimates from the EnOI scheme, estimates of the theoretical analysis errors are calculated for different observing systems that include a range of remotely sensed and in situ observations. The results demonstrate that if HF radar observations are assimilated along with the standard components of the global ocean observing system, the analysis errors are likely to reduce by as much as 80% for velocity and 60% for T, S and sea-level in the vicinity of the observations. Owing to the relatively short along-shore decorrelation length-scales for T and S near the shelf, the glider observations are likely to provide the forecast system with a more modest gain. 相似文献
2.
We consider subinertial, free waves trapped along three coastlines (i.e., shelf waves) in an ocean governed by a geophysical model in which stratification is explicitly obtained by taking the Vaisala frequency N much greater than the inertial frequency f. The behavior is generalized in terms of the parameter S = (N/f)a where a is the bottom slope of the trapping region. Only when , are the predicted shelf waves like those predicted by Laplace's tidal equations (LTE) on an f-plane. When 0.2 ? S < 1, LTE are inappropriate because the shelf waves are only qualitatively like those predicted by LTE, and when S 1, the shelf waves are like baroclinic Kelvin waves in that they can occur at any subinertial frequency up to f (in qualitative disagreement with the predictions of LTE). Since N/f is usually a large number in the real ocean (of order 50–250), S is likely to be large unless the bottom slope is very gentle throughout the trapping region. Some applications to coastal current observations are discussed. 相似文献
3.
《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2010,49(1-3):175-197
The problem of dynamically mapping high-frequency (HF) radar radial velocity observations is investigated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Diego coastal region and an adjoint-based assimilation method. The HF radar provides near-real-time radial velocities from three sites covering the region offshore of San Diego Bay. The hydrodynamical model is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) with 1 km horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers. The domain is centered on Point Loma, extending 117 km offshore and 120 km alongshore. The reference run (before adjustment) is initialized from a single profile of T and S and is forced with wind data from a single shore station and with zero heat and fresh water fluxes. The adjoint of the model is used to adjust initial temperature, salinity, and velocity, hourly temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at the open boundaries, and hourly surface fluxes of momentum, heat and freshwater so that the model reproduces hourly HF radar radial velocity observations. Results from a small number of experiments suggest that the adjoint method can be successfully used over 10-day windows at coastal model resolution. It produces a dynamically consistent model run that fits HF radar data with errors near the specified uncertainties. In a test of the forecasting capability of the San Diego model after adjustment, the forecast skill was shown to exceed persistence for up to 20 h. 相似文献
4.
The seasonal variability of oceanographic conditions in the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk is described based on long-term mean temperature T and salinity S from observations along a standard oceanographic section Cape Aniva-Cape Dokuchaev (May–November). It is shown that the Soya Current is relatively weak in spring, with low temperature and salinity gradients along the section. The Sea of Okhotsk low-salinity water mass is observed in the upper layer. It was formed as a result of melting of a large amount of ice brought here with the East Sakhalin Current from the northwestern part of the Sea of Okhotsk. A cold intermediate layer (CIL) at depths of 50–150 m extends along the entire section. The cold intermediate layer core with a temperature at the edge of the Sakhalin shelf of about ?1.3°C is retained during a period of maximum warming in August; however, in October–November the intensified flow of the East Sakhalin Current (up to 50 cm/s) results in a situation when relatively warm low-salinity waters, connected with the Amur River runoff, dissipate CIL. The results of 12 surveys conducted by the Sakhalin Research Institute for Fisheries and Oceanography in 1998–2004 show significant deviations of T and S [10] in different years from the calculated values. Generally, maximum anomalies (ΔT > 4°C and ΔS > 0.55‰) are observed in the surface layer. Their values and statistical significance decrease with depth. However, the situation is opposite in some cases. The maximum deviation from normal was observed in June 1999, when warm and salt waters were located much further seaward from the Kunashir shelf, which is most likely connected with the Soya Current meandering. 相似文献
5.
首先统计分析了FY-3A卫星MWHS(Micro Wave Humidity Sounder,微波湿度计)2010年1月整月和8月28日—9月6日Level-1b全球观测亮度温度T_O和背景场(NCEP GFS 6 h预报场)用辐射传输模式(美国通用辐射传输模式CRTM 2.0版本)模拟的亮度温度T_B随扫描角的分布特征,发现通道3和4的观测随仪器扫描角有抖动、不连续现象。同时沿着仪器扫描线在星下点两测存在观测不对称现象,而且权重函数峰值越接近地面的通道该不对称现象越明显。在统计观测增量T_O-T_B随扫描角和纬度变化的基础上,定量给出了不同纬度带内(每隔5个纬度)MWHS通道3、4和5的扫描角偏差订正系数,该系数可直接提供给各种资料同化系统同化FY-3A MWHS资料时使用。 相似文献
6.
I. Hoteit B. Cornuelle S.Y. Kim G. Forget A. Khl E. Terrill 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2009,48(1-3):175
The problem of dynamically mapping high-frequency (HF) radar radial velocity observations is investigated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Diego coastal region and an adjoint-based assimilation method. The HF radar provides near-real-time radial velocities from three sites covering the region offshore of San Diego Bay. The hydrodynamical model is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) with 1 km horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers. The domain is centered on Point Loma, extending 117 km offshore and 120 km alongshore. The reference run (before adjustment) is initialized from a single profile of T and S and is forced with wind data from a single shore station and with zero heat and fresh water fluxes. The adjoint of the model is used to adjust initial temperature, salinity, and velocity, hourly temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at the open boundaries, and hourly surface fluxes of momentum, heat and freshwater so that the model reproduces hourly HF radar radial velocity observations. Results from a small number of experiments suggest that the adjoint method can be successfully used over 10-day windows at coastal model resolution. It produces a dynamically consistent model run that fits HF radar data with errors near the specified uncertainties. In a test of the forecasting capability of the San Diego model after adjustment, the forecast skill was shown to exceed persistence for up to 20 h. 相似文献
7.
H. Jean Thiébaux 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):261-285
Abstract Analysis error patterns have been established for the Pacific Weather Centre Experiment Area, and comparisons made between errors computed for meteorological observing arrays, including Ocean Weather Ship (OWS) P, and errors computed for several alternative arrays which excluded OWS P. These assessments of the impact of replacing the ocean weather ship with alternative observing equipment indicate that, above the 1000‐mb pressure surface, there will be a significant loss of accuracy in the forecast‐minus‐observation analyses regardless of proposed additional report systems. Near the surface, forecast error variances are estimated to decrease slightly with an increase of reports from buoys and ships of opportunity within the region. The dependence of the assessments on the data selection procedure and on correlation representations for the region suggest that some loss may be compensated by more efficient use of available data. Refinements in the objective analysis scheme are seen to be especially important to analysis accuracy in regions lacking radiosonde coverage. 相似文献
8.
The potential for using the ensemble square root filter data assimilation technique to estimate soil moisture profiles, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the planetary boundary layer （PBL） is explored. An observing system simulation experiment is designed to mimic the assimilation of near-surface soil moisture observations （θo ） and in-situ measurements of 2-m temperature （To ）, 2-m specific humidity （Qo ）, and 10-m horizontal winds [Vo =（Uo , Vo ）]. The background forecasts are generated by a one-dimensional coupled land surface-boundary layer model （CLS-BLM） with soil, surface-layer and PBL parameterization schemes similar to those used in the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. Soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the PBL evolve on different characteristic timescales, so the minimum assimilation time intervals required for skillful estimates of each target component are different. Correct estimates of the soil moisture profile are obtained effectively when a 6-h update time interval is used, while skillful estimates of surface fluxes and the PBL state require more frequent updates. The CLS-BLM requires a shorter assimilation time interval to correctly estimate the soil moisture profile than previously indicated by experiments using an off-line land surface model （LSM）. Results from assimilating different subsets of observations show that θo makes a larger contribution to soil moisture estimates, while To , θo , and Vo are more important for estimates of surface heat fluxes and the PBL state. It is therefore necessary to combine these variables to accurately estimate the states of both the land surface and the PBL. Experimentation with different prescribed observational errors shows that the assimilation system is more sensitive to increases in observational errors than to reductions in observational errors. 相似文献
9.
Impact of data assimilation of glider observations in the Ionian Sea (Eastern Mediterranean) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Glider observations of temperature, salinity and vertically averaged velocity in the Ionian Sea (Eastern Mediterranean Sea), made in the period October 2004–December 2004, were assimilated into an operational forecasting model together with other in situ and satellite observations. The study area has a high spatial and temporal variability of near surface dynamics, characterized by the entrance of the Atlantic Ionian Stream (AIS) into the Northern Ionian Sea. The impact of glider observations on the estimation of the circulation is studied, and it is found that their assimilation locally improves the prediction of temperature, salinity, velocity and surface elevation fields. However, only the assimilation of temperature and salinity together with the vertically averaged velocity improves the forecast of all observed parameters. It is also found that glider observations rapidly impact the analyses even remotely, and the remote impacts on the analyses remain several months after the presence of the glider. The study emphasizes the importance of assimilating as much as possible all available information from gliders, especially in dynamically complex areas. 相似文献
10.
本研究发展了一个全球海洋资料同化系统ZFL_GODAS。该系统是一个短期气候数值预测业务系统的子系统,为短期气候预测海气耦合模式提供全球海洋初始场。系统能够同化的观测资料包括卫星高度计资料、卫星海表温度(SST)资料,以及Argo、XBT、TAO等各种不同来源的现场温盐廓线资料。系统使用的海洋模式为中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室开发的气候系统海洋模式LICOM1.0,同化方案为集合最优插值(EnOI)方案。系统使用一个由海洋模式自由积分得到的静态样本来估计背景场误差协方差。这样的基于集合样本的背景场误差协方差具有多变量协变、各向异性的特征,且能反映海洋物理过程固有的空间尺度特征。针对EnOI同化程序的特点,开发了一套特色鲜明、负载均衡、高效的并行化同化程序。本文通过与不同类型观测资料的比较,对同化系统的性能进行了评估。通过比较海表温度和海面高度的年际变率,海表温度异常随时间的变化,SST、海面高度异常(SLA)以及次表层温盐预报产品的均方根误差,5年平均温度偏差廓线、平均盐度廓线、平均纬向流速廓线等发现:系统工作正常、同化效果较好;经过同化以后,各变量都更加接近观测,误差更小,与观测场的相关性更好,可以为短期气候预测系统提供较好的海洋初始场,也可以为物理海洋学的研究提供有效的再分析资料。 相似文献
11.
The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar observations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z–R relationship is combined with an empirical qr–R relationship to obtain a new Z–qr relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The performance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z–R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected reflectivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better performance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original reflectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z–R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin than the Z–R relationships currently in use. 相似文献
12.
Abstract Twenty‐seven radar cells from the Tropical Atlantic observed during GATE were followed and measurements of their fluxes and areas for initial time increments T0 were fitted to various extrapolation schemes. The extrapolation procedure that gave the smallest error inforecasting the changes influx and area, was found to be the linear one and the optimum increment T0 was about 30 min. However, even though these techniques have the advantage of establishing a trend in the behaviour of the flux and area with time, a comparison of the forecast errors from the linear extrapolation scheme with those from the “status quo” (persistence) assumption shows little if any improvement. A technique including both cell motion and internal changes influx and area of the rain cells was developed to evaluate the accuracy of rain accumulation forecasts. It was found that the errors generated by the “status quo” assumption were of the order of 77% for a 2‐h forecast with little improvement by allowing for the extrapolation of area and flux. 相似文献
13.
Ian Geoffrey Watterson 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):903-922
The patterns of large-scale climate change over the 21st century simulated by 23 CMIP3 global climate models are analyzed to provide understanding of the range of projected temperature T and precipitation P changes for Australia published in 2007. Means of change, standardized by the global warming, within each of 11 regions are calculated for each model. Correlations between regions across the 23 models indicate that the changes are rather coherent across much of the mainland. The all-Australian average changes are also well correlated with a pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures. A Pacific-Indian Dipole index, representing this pattern, correlates strongly with Australian P. It also correlates well with variables in Southeast Asia. The global warming itself correlates well with Australian warming. These two indices of large-scale ocean warming are used to partition the 23 models into four representative future climates. For Australia overall, these can be described as much warmer and drier, much warmer, warmer and drier, and warmer. The four climates span much of the range of the earlier Australian projections over most of the continent. Further, they may be reproduced by a downscaling model forced with the SST anomalies. An assessment of the realism of the ocean pattern changes has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of projections, both for Australia and beyond. 相似文献
14.
集合卡尔曼滤波同化多普勒雷达资料的观测系统模拟试验 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
本文将集合卡尔曼滤波同化技术应用到对流尺度系统中,实施了基于WRF模式的同化单部多普勒雷达径向风和反射率因子的观测系统模拟试验,验证了其在对流尺度中应用的可行性和有效性,并对同化系统的特性进行了探讨。试验表明:WRF-EnKF雷达资料同化系统能较准确分析模式风暴的流场、热力场、微物理量场的细致特征;几乎所有变量的预报和分析误差经过同化循环后都能显著下降,同化分析基本上能使预报场在各层上都有所改进,对预报场误差较大层次的更正更为显著;约8个同化循环后,EnKF能在雷达反射率、径向风观测与背景场间建立较可靠的相关关系,使模式各变量场能被准确分析更新,背景场误差协方差在水平方向和垂直方向都有着复杂的结构,是高度非均匀、各项异性和流依赖的;集合平均分析场做的确定性预报在短时间内能较好保持真值场风暴的细节结构,但预报误差增长较快。 相似文献
15.
E. H. V. Dexter 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):7-31
Abstract This paper describes the observational framework for the research reported within this Special Issue. The validation of the ERS‐1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for ocean wave measurement was the primary goal and focus; secondary goals were the validation of wave models and marine radars and the investigation of the wind stress/sea‐state relation in the open ocean. The planned focus of the observations on the ERS‐1 crossover node location and pass times over the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, and on the grid points of the Atmospheric Environment Service's operational wave prediction model, has produced the opportunity for an accurate calibration and a relevant validation of the ERS‐1 SAR, the wave model and the marine radars. The observations, made on the Grand Banks in winter, strongly emphasize the complexity of the atmospheric and wave fields encountered in the open sea at these latitudes. Their interpretation will provide a challenge, and will require consideration of a wide variety of data sources, both remotely sensed and in situ, all assimilated in the framework of physical ocean models. 相似文献
16.
Based on the data of deep-ocean ship observations of temperature T and salinity S, analysis is carried out of the fields of pair correlation coefficients between T and S at different depths as an additional characteristic of water masses in the layer 0–1000 m in the North Atlantic. As a result of analysis, surface, subsurface, and the upper part of North Atlantic intermediate waters are classified according to a degree of correlation between temperature and salinity. The emphasis was given to regions with low correlations, because they indicate the prevalence of the interaction processes that differ most from the typical mixing of two water masses with entirely different characteristics. 相似文献
17.
18.
Lim Eun-Pa Hendon Harry H. Shi Li de Burgh-Day Catherine Hudson Debra King Andrew Trewin Blair Griffiths Morwenna Marshall Andrew 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3625-3641
We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (Tmin) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced Tmin is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed Tmin anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 Tmin anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the Tmin forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.
相似文献19.
The boundary currents over the Western Australian continental shelf and slope consist of the poleward flowing Leeuwin Current (LC) and the equatorward flowing Leeuwin Undercurrent (LUC). Key properties of the LC are its poleward strengthening, deepening to the south, and shelfbreak intensification. The alongshore flow reverses direction below about 300 m, forming the LUC at greater depths. To investigate the processes that cause these features, we obtain solutions to an idealized, regional ocean model of the South Indian Ocean. Solutions are forced by relaxing surface density to a prescribed, meridionally varying density profile ρ*(y) with a timescale of δt. In addition, vertical diffusion is intensified near the ocean surface. This diffusion establishes the minimum thickness over which density is well-mixed. We define this thickness as the “upper layer”. Solutions are obtained with and without a continental shelf and slope off Western Australia and for a range of values of δt and mixing parameters. Within this upper layer, there is a meridional density gradient that balances a near-surface, eastward geostrophic flow. The eastward current downwells near the eastern boundary, leading to westward flow at depth. The upper layer's meridional structure and zonal currents crucially depend on coastal processes, including the presence of topography near the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves inhibit the upper layer from deepening at the coast. Rossby waves propagate the coastal density structure offshore, hence modifying the interior currents. A comparison of the solutions with or without a continental shelf and slope demonstrate that topographic trapping of Rossby waves is a necessary process for maintaining realistic eastern boundary current speeds. Significant poleward speeds occur only onshore of where the upper layer intersects the slope, that is, at a grounding line. Its poleward transport increases when surface-enhanced vertical mixing is applied over a greater depth. When the timescale δt is sufficiently short, the poleward current is nearly barotropic. The current's spatial structure over the shelf is controlled by horizontal mixing, having the structure of a Munk layer. Increasing vertical diffusion deepens the upper layer thickness and strengthens the alongshore current speed. Bottom drag leads to an offshore flow along the bottom, reducing the net onshore transport and weakening the current's poleward acceleration. When δt is long, poleward advection of buoyancy forms a density front near the shelf break, intensifying poleward speeds near the surface. With bottom drag, a bottom Ekman flow advects density offshore, shifting the jet core offshore of the shelf break. The resulting cross-shelf density gradient reverses the meridional current's direction at depth, leading to an equatorward undercurrent. 相似文献
20.
目前多数快速更新循环同化系统在各分析时刻常使用固定的背景场误差协方差。为在快速更新循环同化系统中采用日变化的背景场误差协方差,基于RMAPS-ST系统分析了其夏季和冬季日变化背景场误差协方差特征,并进行了同化及预报对比试验。结果表明,该系统夏、冬两季的背景场误差协方差均呈现出明显的日变化特征,且夜间各变量(U、V、T、RH)的误差标准差与特征值均大于日间,反映模式系统夜间的预报误差大于日间;而夏季各变量误差标准差和特征值大于冬季,也说明系统在夏季的模式预报误差比冬季大;连续3 d的循环同化试验初步表明,采用日变化背景场误差协方差可以提高同化及预报效果。 相似文献