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1.
We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km2 urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Soil and water conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, construction of sediment‐trapping dams, and the ‘Grain for Green Program’ have been extensively implemented in the Yanhe River watershed, of the Loess Plateau, China, over the last six decades, and have resulted in large‐scale land use and land cover changes. This study examined the trends and shifts in streamflow regime over the period of 1953–2010 and relates them to changes in land use and soil and water conservation and to the climatic factors of precipitation and air temperature. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and shifts in streamflow and base flow. A method based on precipitation and potential evaporation was used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and changes in non‐climate factors changes on annual streamflow. A significant decrease (p = 0.01) in annual streamflow was observed related to a significant change point in 1996, mostly because of significant decreases in streamflow (p = 0.01) in the July to September periods in subsequent years. The annual base flow showed no significant trend from 1953 to 2010 and no change point year, mostly because there were no significant seasonal trends, except for significant decreases (p = 0.05) in the July to September periods. There was no significant trend for precipitation over the studied time period, and no change point was detected. The air temperature showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01), and 1986 (p < 0.01) was the change point year. The climate variability, as measured by precipitation and temperature, and non‐climate factors including land use changes and soil and water conservation were estimated to have contributed almost equally to the reduction in annual streamflow. Soil and water conservation practices, including biological measures (e.g. revegetation, planting trees and grass) and engineering measures (such as fish‐scale pits, horizontal trenches, and sediment‐trapping dams) play an important role in reduction of the conversion of rainfall to run‐off. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modelling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid‐based spatially distributed model, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model‐Water Quality (DHSVM‐WQ), is an outgrowth of DHSVM that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high‐spatial and high‐temporal resolution. DHSVM‐WQ simulates surface run‐off quality and in‐stream processes that control the transport of non‐point source pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM‐WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here, we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from non‐point sources (run‐off), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely because of substantially increased streamflow and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 °C), TSS load (up to 182%) and TP load (up to 74%). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Historical records of monthly streamflow and precipitation coupled with mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures for Washington State were used to study the variation and the trend characteristics that occurred over the last 50 years (1952–2002). Results indicate that the 1967 statewide water resource assessment needs to be updated because all of the stations used in that study exhibited a decreasing trend in annual streamflow ranging from ?0·9% to ?49·3%, with an arithmetic mean of ?11·7% and a median value of ?9·8%. Furthermore, a slightly decreasing trend in annual streamflow, although not statistically significant, was detected. The decreasing streamflow magnitude was about ?1·178 mm year?2, or 4·88 m3 s?1 year?1, which caused a decrease in annual streamflow in the state of about 58·9 mm, or 244 m3 s?1. This magnitude was about 9·6% of the average annual streamflow for the entire state from 1952 to 2002. Contrastingly, the overall annual precipitation in the entire state increased 1·375 mm year?2. Overall the annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature increased by 0·122, 0·048, and 0·185 °C/10 years, respectively, during the study period. Thus the corresponding annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures increased by 0·61, 0·24, and 0·93 °C, respectively. All of these trends and magnitudes were found to vary considerably from station to station and month to month. The possible reasons resulting in these detected trends include, but are not limited to, human activities, climate variability and changes, and land use and land cover changes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The hydrologic impact of climate change has been largely assessed using mostly conceptual hydrologic models. This study investigates the use of distributed hydrologic model for the assessment of the climate change impact for the Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario (Canada). A coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model is developed to represent the complex hydrologic conditions in the Spencer Creek watershed, and later to simulate climate change impact using Canadian global climate model (CGCM 3·1) simulations. Owing to the coarse resolution of GCM data (daily GCM outputs), statistical downscaling techniques are used to generate higher resolution data (daily precipitation and temperature series). The modelling results show that the coupled model captured the snow storage well and also provided good simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge. The simulated streamflows are consistent with the observed flows at different sites within the catchment. Using a conservative climate change scenario, the downscaled GCM scenarios predicted an approximately 14–17% increase in the annual mean precipitation and 2–3 °C increase in annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2050s (i.e., 2046–2065). When the downscaled GCM scenarios were used in the coupled model, the model predicted a 1–5% annual decrease in snow storage for 2050s, approximately 1–10% increase in annual ET, and a 0·5–6% decrease in the annual groundwater recharge. These results are consistent with the downscaled temperature results. For future streamflows, the coupled model indicated an approximately 10–25% increase in annual streamflows for all sites, which is consistent with the predicted changes in precipitation. Overall, it is shown that distributed hydrologic modelling can provide useful information not only about future changes in streamflow but also changes in other key hydrologic processes such as snow storage, ET, and groundwater recharge, which can be particularly important depending on the climatic region of concern. The study results indicate that the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model could be a particularly useful tool for understanding the integrated effect of climate change in complex catchment scale hydrology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):596-605
Abstract

The potential effect of climatic change on the flow of the Upper Changjiang (or Yangtze River) above the Three Gorges, China, was simulated with the SLURP hydrological model, using ERA40 data from 1961–1990 to simulate the baseline streamflow, and employing scenario temperature and precipitation changes depicted by two global climate models: the Hadley Centre and the Canadian climate model (CCCma) for both the B2 scenario (moderate emission of greenhouse gases) and the A2 scenario (more intense emission), for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 time horizons. In general, temperature and precipitation changes are more pronounced for the latter than for the former period. Winter low flows will not change but summer high flow may be augmented by increased precipitation. By mid-century, temperature increase will reduce streamflow according to CCCma, but not so under the Hadley Centre scenario. By the end of the century, precipitation will be great enough to overcome the influence of warming to raise discharge from most parts of the basin. The Min and the Jinsha rivers warrant much attention, the former because of its large flow contribution and the latter because of its sensitivity to climate forcing.  相似文献   

9.
Mohammad Safeeq  Ali Fares 《水文研究》2012,26(18):2745-2764
The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) in a mountainous Hawaii watershed was studied using the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM). The hydrologic response of the watershed was simulated for 43 years for different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and + 6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5%, ±10% and ±20%) on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under current, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. Vegetation leaf conductance and leaf area index were modified to reflect the increase in CO2 concentration. The relative departure of streamflow and ET from their levels during the reference scenarios was calculated on a monthly and annual basis. Results of this study indicate that the streamflow and ET are less sensitive to changes in temperature compared with changes in precipitation. However, temperature increase coupled with precipitation showed significant effect on ET and streamflow. Changes in leaf conductance and leaf area index with increasing CO2 concentration under A1F1 scenario had a significant effect on ET and subsequently on streamflow. Evapotranspiration is less sensitive than streamflow for a similar level of change in precipitation. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios, DHSVM predicted a change in ET by ±10% and streamflow between ?51% and 90%. From the six ensemble mean scenarios for AR4 A1B, simulations suggest reduction in streamflow by 6.7% to 17.2%. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Water resources availability is one of the main concerns for policy makers around the world in present and future management plans. In the Mediterranean basin, this concern is increased given the extreme variability in climate and the intrinsic aridity conditions. Water resources in the Mediterranean region depend mainly on surface and subsurface supply from mountain areas. Because evapotranspiration comprises a substantial portion of the water budget, recent land cover changes due to cropland abandonment may change transpiration (TRANS) and water supply. Therefore, land management plans must account for these potential hydrologic changes to guarantee water availability in the upcoming decades. Short-term changes to water yield have been shown to follow afforestation or natural revegetation, the main management strategies in abandoned cropland areas. Studies comparing long-term trends of these management practices, however, are scarce due to the lack of long-term hydrological data. In this study, we use the regional hydro-ecological simulation system (RHESSys), to analyse long-term changes and annual and seasonal trends in streamflow (STR) and transpiration following management of abandoned cropland areas. Annual mean values show significant differences between the three management scenarios for both streamflow and transpiration, while differences between climate scenarios are not significant. The Mann Kendall trend analysis shows significant changes to water yield compared to the situation before management. Depending on the total afforested area, afforestation could significantly decrease annual streamflow between 2.3%·decade−1 and 5.9%·decade−1 and increase annual transpiration between 1.1%·decade−1 and 3.5%·decade−1. These trends are attributed to changes during the first 30 years after management, while during the fourth and fifth decade, changes to water yield tend to stabilize or decrease. These results are substantial to optimize land management plans, ensuring sustainable hydrological and ecological ecosystem services.  相似文献   

11.
Relative baseflow volume and streamflow flashiness indices were used to assess relationships between land use/cover and streamflow regime in nine New Jersey (NJ) Pinelands streams. Baseflow index (BFI) and Richards–Baker flashiness index (RBI) were estimated on an October–September water year, with period‐of‐record changes assessed by trend analysis and differences between watersheds assessed by examining index versus land‐use/cover relationships using a data period common to all study sites. Four streams, among the more urbanized watersheds of the nine study sites, were found to have significant (α = 0·05) trends in both indices. The two most urbanized study sites showed decreasing baseflow and increasing flashiness; however, the other two streams showed the opposite trends. An apparent slowdown in urbanization towards the second half of the streamflow period of record, along with potential changes in wetland agricultural practices in the latter two watersheds, may explain their trend results. A marginally significant (α = 0·10) decreasing relationship was found between mean annual BFI and wetland agriculture, whereas a significant (α = 0·05) increasing relationship was determined between mean annual RBI and artificial lakes/reservoirs. Principal component analysis showed an association between wetland agriculture and artificial lakes/reservoirs which suggested that both of the significant index versus land‐use/cover relationships reflect wetland agricultural activities. Because these significant relationships involved land uses/covers with small spatial extents (?5%), they demonstrated that land‐use practices can have a greater impact than spatial extent on stream hydrology. This study is the first step in assessing the effect on the NJ Pinelands stream ecology by streamflow alteration due to wetland agricultural activities. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.  相似文献   

13.
Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes’ internal heating, cooling, and mixing. Thus, continued global warming and climate change will affect lakes’ thermal properties, dynamics, and ecosystem. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here, as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin, air temperature data show upward trends and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain, and the frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years (1970–2007) show that Lake Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013°C/year. The future trends of weather variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2001–2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000–2040) is established using streamflows and associated loadings, and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994–2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013°C/year); and (2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake.  相似文献   

14.
Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Climate change has a significant influence on streamflow variation. The aim of this study is to quantify different sources of uncertainties in future streamflow projections due to climate change. For this purpose, 4 global climate models, 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways), 6 downscaling models, and a hydrologic model (UBCWM) are used. The assessment work is conducted for 2 different future time periods (2036 to 2065 and 2066 to 2095). Generalized extreme value distribution is used for the analysis of the flow frequency. Strathcona dam in the Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada, is used as a case study. The results show that the downscaling models contribute the highest amount of uncertainty to future streamflow predictions when compared to the contributions by global climate models or representative concentration pathways. It is also observed that the summer flows into Strathcona dam will decrease, and winter flows will increase in both future time periods. In addition to these, the flow magnitude becomes more uncertain for higher return periods in the Campbell River system under climate change.  相似文献   

17.
Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai‘i during the past century. Statistically significant long‐term (1913–2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test) in low‐streamflow and base‐flow records. These long‐term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913–1943 and 1943–2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai‘i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long‐term trends reflect region‐wide changes in climatic and land‐cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943–2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base‐flow records than in high‐streamflow, peak‐flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate‐change projections and watershed responses to changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km2) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in the water supply of Asia's main river basins. To enhance understanding of hydrologic cycle under the pronounced warming over the TP, this study comprehensively investigates the streamflow changes at the upstream of six major rivers (Yellow River, Yalong River, Jinsha River, Lancang River, Nu River, and Yarlung Zangbo River) originating from the TP, and then diagnoses their possible causes by analysing the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Results indicate that these six major rivers studied have generally insignificant increasing trends in annual streamflow during the last half century, except for two stations. The significant increase appears at the Tuotuohe station in the headwater area of Jinsha River, while the dramatic decrease occurs at the Yunjinghong station in the downstream of Lancang River. In terms of climate factors, the six river basins show a distinct warming trend, along with a noticeable increase in precipitation over the central and northern regions. Pan evaporation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity have been found to gradually decrease in most areas. As for the Tuotuohe station, both warming-induced meltwater and increasing precipitation might jointly contribute to the increasing streamflow. But for the Yunjinghong station, the results simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model indicate that human activities, especially for the impoundment processes of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu dams, significantly influenced the streamflow, contributing to approximately 69% of the streamflow reduction during 2009–2013. In the context of accelerated global warming, greater attention should be paid to hydrometeorological changes on the TP to offer further insights for the water resources management of the ‘Asian Water Tower’.  相似文献   

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