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1.
During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological
Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological
Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely
explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological
and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological
analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible,
within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require
a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users.
Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural
or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes
of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh
Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program
named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used.
The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how
sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability
for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving.
Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the
respective resource assessment methodologies. 相似文献
2.
The potential for mining hydrothermal mineral deposits on the seafloor, such as seafloor massive sulfides, has become technically possible, and some companies (currently not many) are considering their exploration and development. Yet, no present methodology has been designed to quantify the ore potential and assess the risks relative to prospectivity at prospect and regional scales. Multi-scale exploration techniques, similar to those of the play analysis that are used in the oil and gas industry, can help to fulfill this task by identifying the characteristics of geologic environments indicative of ore-forming processes. Such characteristics can represent a combination of, e.g., heat source, pathway, trap and reservoir that all dictate how and where ore components are mobilized from source to deposition. In this study, the understanding of these key elements is developed as a mineral system, which serves as a guide for mapping the risk of the presence or absence of ore-forming processes within the region of interest (the permissive tract). The risk analysis is carried out using geoscience data, and it is paired with quantitative resource estimation analysis to estimate the in-place mineral potential. Resource estimates are simulated stochastically with the help of available data (bathymetric features in this study), conventional grade–tonnage models and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. In this paper, the workflow for a multi-scale quantitative risk analysis, from the definition to the evaluation of a permissive tract and related prospect(s), is described with the help of multi-beam data of a known hydrothermal vent site.
相似文献3.
Source rock evaluation is a critical factor in resource assessment of oil and gas. Models for evaluating source rocks are
dependent on established geomathematical principles, the calculation of source-rock parameters, and geological data. The sensitivities
and uncertainties associated with these models are a matter of concern. In this paper, the effects and relative contributions
of 13 major geological factors, as well as their variations and distribution probabilities, have been analyzed for the source
rocks in the North Songliao Basin in northeastern China. The geological factors include the time of formation of the regional
caprock, composition of the regional caprock, the phases of hydrocarbons in migration, and those factors associated with the
generation, retention, and expulsion of hydrocarbons and their effects on source-rock efficiency. Of the 13 factors analyzed,
the most important are the source-rock depth, sedimentation rate, total organic content, and kerogen-type index; the relative
contributions to the uncertainty of efficient gas/oil migration amounts for the most important factors are 37, 25, 19, and
1% for oil and 32, 17, 20, and 15% for gas, respectively. These most reflect the changes that have occurred in the Qingshankou
source rocks. 相似文献
4.
城市暴雨内涝情景模拟与灾害风险评估 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hot-spots in disaster research.However,up until now,urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes.This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research,which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China.As an example,we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai.Based on the basic concept of disaster risk,this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods.Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure,we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments.A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model,an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model,was applied to simulate inundation area and depth.Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys,which were further applied to analyse vulnerability,exposure and loss assessment.Finally,the ex-ceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities.A framework was also devel-oped for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss.This is a new explora-tion for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment. 相似文献
5.
青藏高原东部样带农牧民生计脆弱性评估 总被引：35，自引：7，他引：28
脆弱性评估为脆弱性地区农户摆脱贫困、区域可持续发展提供科学依据。以青藏高原东部样带为例,基于可持续生计框架,建立了农牧民生计脆弱性评估的指标体系,利用11个乡镇的879户农牧民样本数据,开展了不同地带生计脆弱性评估。该指标体系反映了农牧民面临的主要风险,其生计资产,以及农牧民和政府应对风险的措施。结果表明:高原区农牧民生计脆弱性程度高于山原区和高山峡谷区。高原区的满掌乡最为脆弱,即便有政府的帮助,农牧民也不能应对风险。脆弱性程度高的山原区上部和高原区,处于不能适应的边缘,如不采取措施,当地牧民将不能应对气候变化、草地退化、药材退化等多种风险。导致该区牧民生计脆弱的原因既有各种风险的冲击,也因牧民自身生计资产和适应能力的不足。高山峡谷区和山原区下部的乡镇,农牧民能有效地应对风险,需进一步拓宽第二、第三产业就业渠道。因此,高原区和山原区上部的纯牧区是脆弱区域,政府应采取积极的措施,增强农牧民的适应能力。政府的救助措施应从改善自然资产转变到改善人力资产和金融资产,如技能培训、实行医保和畜病防治全覆盖、提供低息和无息贷款、在黑土滩区全面实行退牧还草、对退化草场进行治理和恢复。 相似文献
6.
Reserve estimation for hydrocarbon reservoirs can be improved by incorporating values extracted from three-dimensional (3-D)
seismic data with those obtained from more conventional data sources of data, such as drill-core and well-log data. An example
of this improved method is illustrated by an application to the QW pool located in the Buohaiwan Basin in eastern China. Parameter
values extracted from 3-D seismic data extend the knowledge about the spatial distributions of such reservoir parameters as
net thickness, porosity, and oil saturation. To assist in the extraction of these values, different pattern-recognition techniques
can be applied. The results that are obtained by this method offer a more reliable and more credible approach to reserve estimation
and can be applied at every stage of resource extraction from exploration to development. 相似文献
7.
In addition to surface geologic and geophysical investigations, Panchromatic SPOT and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data were merged using an IHS approach to produce a satellite composite image to use as a basis for structural geologic analysis of the oil- and gas-bearing regions of Azerbaijan, including the South Caspian and Kura Basins. With the development of new exploration technology, various nonseismic reconnaissance methods, such as remote sensing, gravity, and magnetics for oil exploration have been substantiated and improved. The Azerbaijan and surrounding mountain ranges are favorable for studying natural hydrocarbon seepages. Most of the seepage occurs in faulted and mud volcano areas onshore of the Caspian Sea in Azerbaijan. Determining the geometry of the fault system from analysis of remote-sensing data allows prediction of (1) vertical oil migration from source rocks into tectonic traps in overlying formations and (2) quantitative volume of oil reservoirs. 相似文献
8.
于2019年3月12~13日,在四川省泸沽湖大草海湖滨带的41处采样地中,采集表层(0~20 cm深度)土壤样品,分析测试土样的多环芳烃含量;根据多环芳烃含量的分级标准,确定表层土壤的多环芳烃污染状况,并评价其生态风险。研究结果表明,菜地、果园、林地、耕地和季节性湿草甸表层土壤中的16种多环芳烃质量比之和分别为1 565.98 ng/g、1 463.28 ng/g、676.93 ng/g、591.66 ng/g和583.03 ng/g,菜地表层土壤中多环芳烃含量相对最高;大部分采样地表层土壤属于多环芳烃轻微污染,分布在道路边、人流量较大的地方、居民住宅旁的菜地和污染沟渠附近的采样地表层土壤属中度和重度多环芳烃污染;采样地表层土壤中的多环芳烃来源主要以生物质能源燃烧和交通源为主;多环芳烃对儿童的致癌风险指数小于10^-6,处于安全范围,成人通过皮肤接触途径造成的多环芳烃致癌风险指数最大值和总致癌风险指数都大于10^-6,故成人存在致癌风险。 相似文献
9.
Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential
in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration
plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were
used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs.
Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools.
Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access
to exploration and the small size of many accumulations.
Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays
where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic
truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results
are shown and compared with results from Petrimes.
In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using
Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a
quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure
in such plays.
Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable
gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially
viable production.
Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered
gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered
nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries
from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling
will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource.
A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis
for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides
both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential. 相似文献
10.
Dan Gill 《Natural Resources Research》1992,1(3):231-238
Oil exploration in Israel began in 1953. Until 1991 a total of 263 exploration wells and 122 development wells were drilled, 3 oil fields and 5 gas fields were discovered, and 4 noncommercial oil discoveries and 1 noncommercial gas discovery were made. Proven in-place reserves amount to 70 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). Exploration focused on six main plays: Syrian Arc anticlines; Mesozoic platform-edge, structural-stratigraphic traps; the Dead Sea graben; Early Mesozoic structures; Saqiye Group biogenic gas; and Hula Group biogenic gas. The more significant discoveries are associated with the first two plays. Ninety percent of the proven reserves were discovered by the first 71 wildcats, which constitute 27 percent of all wildcats drilled to date. During this phase of exploration, the average success was 7 percent, and the average discovery rate was 0.88 MMBOE per wildcat. Most of the following 192 wildcats were dry holes. If, as experts claim, significant reserves are still undiscovered, previous exploration must be deemed inefficient. The quantitative model of the discovery process also leads to such an assessment. 相似文献
11.
Seismic reflection data image now-buried and inactive volcanoes, both onshore and along the submarine portions of continental margins. However, the impact that these volcanoes have on later, post-eruption fluid flow events (e.g., hydrocarbon migration and accumulation) is poorly understood. Determining how buried volcanoes and their underlying plumbing systems influence subsurface fluid or gas flow, or form traps for hydrocarbon accumulations, is critical to de-risk hydrocarbon exploration and production. Here, we focus on evaluating how buried volcanoes affect the bulk permeability of hydrocarbon seals, and channel and focus hydrocarbons. We use high-resolution 3D seismic reflection and borehole data from the northern South China Sea to show how ca. <10 km wide, ca. <590 m high Miocene volcanoes, buried several kilometres (ca. 1.9 km) below the seabed and fed by a sub-volcanic plumbing system that exploited rift-related faults: (i) acted as long-lived migration pathways, and perhaps reservoirs, for hydrocarbons generated from even more deeply buried (ca. 8–10 km) source rocks; and (ii) instigated differential compaction and doming of the overburden during subsequent burial, producing extensional faults that breached regional seal rocks. Considering that volcanism and related deformation are both common on many magma-rich passive margins, the interplay between the magmatic products and hydrocarbon migration documented here may be more common than currently thought. Our results demonstrate that now-buried and inactive volcanoes can locally degrade hydrocarbon reservoir seals and control the migration of hydrocarbon-rich fluids and gas. These fluids and gases can migrate into and be stored in shallower reservoirs, where they may then represent geohazards to drilling and impact slope stability. 相似文献
12.
《Basin Research》2017,29(2):149-179
Integrated analysis of high‐quality three‐dimensional (3D) seismic, seabed geochemistry, and satellite‐based surface slick data from the deep‐water Kwanza Basin documents the widespread occurrence of past and present fluid flow associated with dewatering processes and hydrocarbon migration. Seismic scale fluid flow phenomena are defined by seep‐related seafloor features including pockmarks, mud or asphalt volcanoes, gas hydrate pingoes, as well as shallow subsurface features such as palaeo‐pockmarks, direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHIs), pipes and bottom‐simulating reflections (BSRs). BSR‐derived shallow geothermal gradients show elevated temperatures attributed to fluid advection along inclined stratigraphic carrier beds around salt structures in addition to elevated shallow thermal anomalies above highly conductive salt bodies. Seabed evidences of migrated thermogenic hydrocarbons and surface slicks are used to differentiate thermogenic hydrocarbon migration from fluid flow processes such as dewatering and biogenic gas migration. The analysis constrains the fluid plumbing system defined by the three‐dimensional distribution of stratigraphic carriers and seal bypass systems through time. Detailed integration and iterative interpretation have confirmed the presence of mature source rock and effective migration pathways with significant implications for petroleum prospectivity in the post‐salt interval. Integration of seismic, seabed geochemistry and satellite data represents a robust method to document and interpret fluid flow phenomena along continental margins, and highlights the importance of integrated fluid flow studies with regard to petroleum exploration, submarine geohazards, marine ecosystems and climate change. 相似文献
13.
Susan Bartsch-Winkler D. M. Sutphin M. M. Ball S. L. Korzeb R. F. Kness J. T. Dutchover 《Natural Resources Research》1993,2(4):262-283
In this summary of two comprehensive resource reports produced by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, we discuss the mineral- and energyresource endowment of the 14-millon-acre Roswell Resource Area, New Mexico, managed by the Bureau of Land Management. The Bureau and Survey reports result from separate studies that are compilations of published and unpublished data and integrate new findings on the geology, geochemistry, geophysics, mineral, industrial, and energy commodities, and resources for the seven-county area. The reports have been used by the Bureau of Land Management in preparation of the Roswell Resource Area Resource Management Plan, and will have future use in nationwide mineral- and energy-resource inventories and assessments, as reference and training documents, and as public-information tools.In the Roswell Resource Area, many metals, industrial mineral commodities, and energy resources are being, or have been, produced or prospected. These include metals and high-technology materials, such as copper, gold, silver, thorium, uranium and/or vanadium, rare-earth element minerals, iron, manganese, tungsten, lead, zinc, and molybdenum; industrial mineral resources, including barite, limestone/dolomite, caliche, clay, fluorspar, gypsum, scoria, aggregate, and sand and gravel; and fuels and associated resources, such as oil, gas, tar sand and heavy oil, coal, and gases associated with hydrocarbons. Other commodities that have yet to be identified in economic concentrations include potash, halite, polyhalite, anhydrite, sulfur, feldspar, building stone and decorative rock, brines, various gases associated with oil and gas exploration, and carbon dioxide. 相似文献
14.
The formation of oil and gas reservoirs is the result of infinitesimal amounts of hydrocarbons that accumulate in sedimentary
basins through a process of chain reactions, which occur one step at a time. The reactions can be divided into a set of interrelated
static factors, which can be divided into a subset of interrelated factors. The chain reactions define a genetic model that
has a layered structure with the property of forward chaining. It is an attempt to portray the process of formation of oil
and gas reservoirs. By using this model in petroleum exploration, potential pool-size distributions can be evaluated. 相似文献
15.
Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments. 相似文献
16.
Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as field growth, is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon. 相似文献
17.
Devleena Mani T. Satish Kumar M. A. Rasheed D. J. Patil A. M. Dayal T. Gnaneshwar Rao V. Balaram 《Natural Resources Research》2011,20(1):75-88
The association of iodine with organic matter in sedimentary basins is well documented. High iodine concentration in soils
overlying oil and gas fields and areas with hydrocarbon microseepage has been observed and used as a geochemical exploratory
tool for hydrocarbons in a few studies. In this study, we measure iodine concentration in soil samples collected from parts
of Deccan Syneclise in the west central India to investigate its potential application as a geochemical indicator for hydrocarbons.
The Deccan Syneclise consists of rifted depositional sites with Gondwana–Mesozoic sediments up to 3.5 km concealed under the
Deccan Traps and is considered prospective for hydrocarbons. The concentration of iodine in soil samples is determined using
ICP-MS and the values range between 1.1 and 19.3 ppm. High iodine values are characteristic of the northern part of the sampled
region. The total organic carbon (TOC) content of the soil samples range between 0.1 and 1.3%. The TOC correlates poorly with
the soil iodine (r
2 < 1), indicating a lack of association of iodine with the surficial organic matter and the possibility of interaction between
the seeping hydrocarbons and soil iodine. Further, the distribution pattern of iodine compares well with two surface geochemical
indicators: the adsorbed light gaseous hydrocarbons (methane through butane) and the propane-oxidizing bacterial populations
in the soil. The integration of geochemical observations show the occurrence of elevated values in the northern part of the
study area, which is also coincident with the presence of exposed dyke swarms that probably serve as conduits for hydrocarbon
microseepage. The corroboration of iodine with existing geological, geophysical, and geochemical data suggests its efficacy
as one of the potential tool in surface geochemical exploration of hydrocarbons. Our study supports Deccan Syneclise to be
promising in terms of its hydrocarbon prospects. 相似文献
18.
为改善油气田开采过程中的环境,本文结合主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis)与污染物迁移模型,对研究区的油气田开采过程中的污染物进行了分析,主要研究其在土壤中的迁移程度。本研究首先介绍了油气田开采产生污染物的研究背景与污染物种类,其次结合主成分分析法对污染物中的主要成分进行了筛选,最后构建污染物迁移模型,对污染物在土壤以及水体中的迁移进行了研究。结果表明,本文中的主要污染物为石油类、酸、氟离子、氯离子和COD(Chemical Oxygen Demand)、BOD(Biochemical oxygen demand),石油类所占比重最大,为23.63%;石油类污染物在黑钙土中的迁移最广,直至土层厚度为35cm,污染物浓度从18365 mg/kg降到0;石油类污染物在黑钙土中的迁移符合负指数规律;当酸液浓度在1%、2%、3%、4%时,氢离子在土壤中随深度的变化一致,土层厚度为20cm时,11%的酸液酸值高于低浓度土壤酸值,11%的酸液在快速淋滤状态下比缓慢淋滤快一步到达定值;氯离子和氟离子的迁移深度变化基本符合负指数变化规律;低浓度的污染物比高浓度的污染物更早达到定值;石油类污染物在土壤中的迁移能力较弱;本次研究实验值与模拟值基本一致,研究成果良好。石油类污染物在土壤中的迁移能力较弱,酸性污染物对土壤有一定影响。 相似文献
19.
Recently, Manly's method has been successfully applied to hydrocarbon exploration modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered. This method is much faster than running prolonged simulations normally required by the probabilistic model of the hydrocarbon discovery process, and the results are very accurate. This paper extends the usefulness of the approximation method by developing an approximate analytical model of the whole probability distribution of the total volume of hydrocarbons discovered. The mean and the standard deviation from Manly's approximation are used to help set the parameters of a family of beta distributions, to represent the distributions of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered from the beginning to the end of the exploration process in an area. Three real datasets—the Nova Scotian Shelf from offshore northeastern Canada, the Bistcho Play, and the Zama Play from northwestern Canada—are chosen to verify the methodology developed. Confidence intervals of the forecast for each number of discovered fields are constructed from the analytical approximation and compared with confidence intervals generated by the simulation. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show that the idea of using a family of beta distributions is a robust approximation. 相似文献
20.
Geoscientific Information Systems (GIS) provide tools to quantitatively analyze and integrate spatially referenced information
from geological, geophysical, and geochemical surveys for decision-making processes. Excellent coverage of well-documented,
precise and good quality data enables testing of variable exploration models in an efficient and cost effective way with GIS
tools. Digital geoscientific data from the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) are being used widely as spatial evidence in
exploration targeting, that is ranking areas based on their exploration importance. In the last few years, spatial analysis
techniques including weights-of-evidence, logistic regression, and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly used in GTK’s mineral
exploration and geological mapping projects. Special emphasis has been put into the exploration for gold because of the excellent
data coverage within the prospective volcanic belts and because of the increased activity in gold exploration in Finland during
recent years. In this paper, we describe some successful case histories of using the weights-of-evidence method for the Au-potential
mapping. These projects have shown that, by using spatial modeling techniques, exploration targets can be generated by quantitatively
analyzing extensive amounts of data from various sources and to rank these target areas based on their exploration potential. 相似文献