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1.
The properties of the sunspot latitudinal distributions related to skewness have been studied based on the data of the extended Greenwich catalog for 1874–2011. The results of the performed analysis indicate that a significant skewness is present in most annual latitudinal distributions of the sunspot index. In this case, the distribution skewness increases near the 11-year cycle maximum phase. An increase in the sunspot group number is also accompanied by an increase in skewness. In particular, when the sunspot index is large, the number of groups located below midlatitudes is mostly larger than the number of groups above these latitudes and this imbalance increases with increasing total sunspot activity level. In medium and large 11-year cycles, the average distribution skewness for a cycle is always positive and its value is related to the cycle amplitude. This results agree with the theoretical models of the 11-year cycle, where the specific features of the low-latitude meridional circulation are related to the sunspot activity level. 相似文献
2.
M. G. Ogurtsov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2009,49(3):408-411
The average and maximal numbers of sunspot groups in the approaching solar cycle (cycle 24) have been predicted using paleoastrophysical information about solar activity during the last more than 10000 years. The linear and nonlinear prediction methods have been applied. It has been indicated that, from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, the next cycle will most probably be average: the number of sunspot groups at a maximum will reach 68–101. The probability that cycle 24 will be powerful (more than 160 sunspot groups), which was predicted by some researchers, is low (not higher than 2%). 相似文献
3.
A. G. Tlatov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2013,53(8):953-956
Relative variations in the number of sunspots and sunspot groups in activity cycles have been analyzed based on data from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station and international indices. The following regularities have been established: (1) The relative fraction of small sunspots decreases linearly and that of large sunspots increase with increasing activity cycle amplitude. (2) The variation in the average number of sunspots in one group has a trend, and this number decreased from ～12 in cycle 19 to ～7.5 in cycle 24. (3) The ratio of the sunspot index (Ri) to the sunspot group number index (G gr) varies with a period of about 100 years. (4) An analysis of the sunspot group number index (G gr) from 1610 indicates that the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule reverses at the minimums of secular activity cycles. (5) Ratio of the total area to area of Ssp/Sum nuclei has long-term variation with a period approximately 8 cycles. Minimum ratio falls on 16–17 cycles of activity. (6) It has been indicated that the magnetic field intensity and sunspot area in the current cycle are related to the amplitude of the next activity cycle. 相似文献
4.
The parameter of cosmic ray fluctuations, which indicates the degree of IMF inhomogeneity, was introduced in order to quantitatively
describe the dynamics of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity fluctuations during the geoeffective phases of the 11-year
cycle. The 5-min data of the high-latitude neutron monitor at Oulu station (Finland) during cycles 20–23 was used in the calculations.
The nonrandom non-Gaussian character of the GCR fluctuation parameter is caused by the nonstationary semiannual variation
reflecting the transient nonstationary oscillatory process of sign reversal of the general solar magnetic field. This transient
oscillatory process is responsible for the maximal geoeffectiveness and duration of the phase of polarity reversal, which
manifests itself in a sharp and deep GCR intensity minimum during the final stage of the field sign reversal. The invariant
of the 11-year “amplitude-duration” cycle was confirmed on a new basis: the LF drift of the “low” cycle period was detected,
which was observed in an increase in the duration of cycle 23 we anticipated. 相似文献
5.
Emil M. Apostolov Vojtěch Letfus Reviewer J. Pýcha 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1989,33(4):379-390
Summary The time variations of the amplitudes and phases of the semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity, characterized by the linear planetary index aa, have been analysed for the period 1868–1985. The results provide qualitative confirmation of Murayama's conclusions [13] about the systematic f phase in dependence on the changes in the level of solar activity and give support to Russel-McPherron's mechanism [16] concerning the effect of the predominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. A distinctly expressed variation of the phase differences in the course of the sunspot cycle and of the 22-year cycle, and specific variations related to the sequence of four consecutive cycles have been established, as well as a well-defined 90-year period, all of them as a reflection of analogous variations in solar activity. The variations of the phase differences observed around the equinoxes can be explained by the combined effect of the mechanisms of the axial and equinoctial hypothesis. It is assumed that a displacement of the maxima of the semi-annual variation to dates after the equinoxes will be observed in the ascending parts and a reverse displacement towards the equinoxes and earlier dates in the desccending parts of the following sunspot cycles 22 nad 23.On leave from the Geophysical Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Akad. G. Bonchev Str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria. 相似文献
6.
Using sunspot data for cycles 12 to 23, we have investigated relations of some latitude characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases. We have revealed a high correlation (with correlation coefficients >0.9) between the middle latitude of sunspot groups at phases of rise, maximum, and decay, on the one hand, and the amplitude of the corresponding cycle, on the other hand. We have shown that the maxima of the velocity of the motion of the sunspot formation zone to the equator have a special physical meaning: the rise phase of the 11-year cycle is characterized by significant correlations between the cycle amplitude and the maximum for the lowest boundary, and the cycle decay phase is characterized by the same maximum for the highest boundary. We have built equations allowing one to determine the amplitude of the 11-year cycle on the basis of data on the given latitudinal characteristics of sunspots groups. 相似文献
7.
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9.
Hiroko Miyahara Kentaro Nagaya Kimiaki Masuda Yasushi Muraki Hiroyuki Kitagawa Toshio Nakamura 《Quaternary Geochronology》2008,3(3):208-212
In this paper, we review the variation of the 11-year solar cycle since the 15th century revealed by the measurement of radiocarbon content in single-year tree-rings of Japanese cedar trees. Measurements of radiocarbon content in absolutely dated tree-rings provide a calibration curve for accurate dating of archaeological matters, but at the same time, enable us to examine the variations of solar magnetic activity in the pre-historical period. The Sun holds several long-term quasi-cyclic variations in addition to the fundamental 11-year sunspot activity cycle and the 22-year polarity reversal cycle, and it is speculated that the property of the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycle varies in association with such long-term quasi-cycles. It is essential to reveal the details of solar variations around the transition time of solar dynamo for illuminating the mechanisms of the long-term solar variations. We therefore have investigated the property of the 11-year and 22-year cycles around the two grand solar minima; the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and the Spoerer Minimum (1415–1534 AD), the periods of prolonged sunspot minima. As a result, slight stretching of the “11-year” and the “22-year” solar cycles was found during these two grand solar activity minima; continuously during the Maunder Minimum and only intermittently during the Spoerer Minimum. On the contrary, normal or slightly shortened 11-year cycles were detected during the interval period of these two minima. It suggests the inverse correlation between the solar cycle length and solar magnetic activity level, and also the change of meridional flow during the grand solar activity minima. Further measurements for the beginning of the grand solar minima will provide a clue to the occurrence of such prolonged sunspot disappearance. We also discuss the effect of solar variations to radiocarbon dating. 相似文献
10.
V.V. Pipin 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-2):185-206
We study the effect of turbulent drift of a large-scale magnetic field that results from the interaction of helical convective motions and differential rotation in the solar convection zone. The principal direction of the drift corresponds to the direction of the large-scale vorticity vector. Thus, the effect produces a latitudinal transport of the large-scale magnetic field in the convective zone wherever the angular velocity has a strong radial gradient. The direction of the drift depends on the sign of helicity and it is defined by the Parker–Yoshimura rule. The analytic calculations are done within the framework of mean-field magnetohydrodynamics using the minimal τ-approximation. We estimate the magnitude of the drift velocity and find that it can be a few m/s near the base of the solar convection zone. The implications of this effect for the solar dynamo are illustrated on the basis of an axisymmetric mean-field dynamo model with a subsurface shear layer. The model shows that near the bottom of the convection zone the helicity–vorticity pumping results mostly from the kinetic helicity contributions. We find that the magnetic helicity contributions to the pumping effect are dominant at the subsurface shear layer. There the magnitude of the drift velocity is found to be a few cm/s. We find that the helicity–vorticity pumping effect can have an influence on the features of the sunspot time–latitude diagram, producing a fast drift of the sunspot activity maximum at the rise phase of the cycle and a slow drift at the decay phase of the cycle. 相似文献
11.
T. Németh 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1966,63(1):205-210
Summary According to the author the reason of the subsistence of the 11 years' sunspot cycle is to be found in the conjunction of the planets. As a result of the investigations it has been stated that from among the nine planets the joint tidal effect of Venus-Jupiter-Earth is a decisive factor in the variations of sunspot activity. The above three planets are every 10.4 years and 12.0 years respectively, in a close conjunction. The mean value (11.2 years) is in an almost full accordance with the average cycle-period. The fluctuations of the period of the cycle come from the fact that the planets' getting into approximately one line takes a different time within each cycle. This time delay is the cause of the stronger or weaker sunspot activity, and of the shorter or longer cycles. 相似文献
12.
A long series of the known Π index of the solar corona structure has been proposed. It seems that this index, which characterizes the limb extension of polar coronal plume systems, is of importance because it is related to the large-scale polar solar magnetic flux. Solar corona photographs and drawings during total solar eclipses, collected for 13 solar activity cycles from different sources (78 eclipses), as well as H-alpha map data on the drift of the high-latitude belt of filaments before polarity reversal of the polar magnetic field have been used. Daily solar corona images, obtained on the SOHO spacecraft (using an EIT ultraviolet telescope), have been additionally used. 相似文献
13.
Astronomical forcing in Upper Miocene continental sequences: implications for the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hayfaa Abdul Aziz Jan van Dam Wout Krijgsman 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(1):243-258
We present an integrated stratigraphic study of cyclically bedded distal alluvial fan to lacustrine deposits in the late Miocene continental sections of Cascante and Cañizar (Teruel basin, NE Spain). The cyclostratigraphic analysis reveals that different scales of sedimentary cyclicity are present with a thickness ratio of about 1:2:5. Spectral analysis of colour records in the depth domain indicates the presence of a significant peak at ∼2.2 m, which corresponds to the average thickness of the basic, mudstone-carbonate, cycle. Other peaks correspond to the large-scale cycle, which consists of clusters of five basic cycles, and to a cycle twice the average thickness of the basic cycle. Magnetostratigraphic results, in combination with small-mammal biostratigraphy, indicate that the three normal polarity intervals recorded in our sections correspond to C5n.2n, C5n.1n and C4Ar.2n. Assigning the ages of CK95 to the polarity reversals implies significant changes in sedimentation rate, which is not in agreement with the regularity of the sedimentary cyclicity. Thus, spectral analysis of high-resolution colour records in the time domain only produce a spectrum that is consistent with Milankovitch climate forcing, if several of the assigned age tie points are excluded. This indicates that the sedimentary cyclicity in these sections is related to astronomical variations in climate and that the ages of reversal boundaries are in error. Hence, we have calculated the astronomical durations for C4Ar.2n (87 ky), C4Ar.3r (54 ky), C5n.1n (141 ky), and C5n.1r (33 ky), which indeed show significant discrepancies with CK95. The duration pattern of our polarity intervals is confirmed by seafloor anomaly profiles and magnetostratigraphic records of deep-sea cores. Consequently, this study demonstrates that astronomically forcing in continental sequences can be a powerful tool to improve the fundamental dating of the geological record. 相似文献
14.
V. N. Pogrebnoi V. P. Golovkov T. I. Zvereva E. L. Mozoleva S. Moldobekova 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2010,50(4):536-541
The results of investigations of the latitudinal distribution of annual variation of the geomagnetic field level in the seasons
of 1964 (International Quiet Sun Year) using the data from 95 world magnetic observatories located at various longitudes in
the latitude range 83° N–90° S are reported. The latitudinal features of the X, Y, and Z components of the geomagnetic field have been analyzed. It has been shown that the amplitudes (summer-winter differences)
of the annual variation are maximal in the polar regions, decrease continuously to zero towards the equator, and are identical
for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres with a half-year delay (local summer). The amplitudes of the equinox-winter
difference in the equinox periods are smaller than those in summer, but are manifested simultaneously in the Northern and
Southern hemispheres. An equivalent circumpolar current system has been constructed, which is responsible for the annual variation
of the geomagnetic field level. Its parameters have been determined. 相似文献
15.
A non-stationary transient oscillating process of the solar magnetic field polarity reversal of ≈3 years in duration has been established: a U-shaped dynamics in the wavelet representation of variations in the scintillation index of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) (≈7, 13–14, and ≈7 solar rotations). The transient oscillating process of the field reversal is concluded with a sharp and deep decrease in the GCR intensity at the branch of 11-year cycle decline (1972, 1982, 1991, and 2003). The duration of the transient process inversely depends on the 11-year cycle amplitude. Retardation of relaxation oscillations during “weak” cycles (20 and 23) explains “anomalous” solar activity in 1972 and 2003. A decrease in the amplitude of the current cycle 23 is accompanied by an increase in its duration, which can mean that the 11-year cyclicity has become anomalous. The constancy of the energy released in a single cycle indicates that the 11-year cycle is the mechanism of energy regulation preventing the Sun from “overheating” at the critical temperature. 相似文献
16.
The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5^N, 77^E, dip 0.5^N) has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT) instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h’F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism. 相似文献
17.
N.R. Rigozo M.P. Souza Echer H. Evangelista D.J.R. Nordemann E. Echer 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(11-12):1294-1299
The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23. 相似文献
18.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2000,62(5):371-391
The state of the ionization of the upper atmosphere at low and mid latitudes in the Australian region has been studied by investigating the total electron content (TEC) obtained by a dual-frequency group path and phase path GPS technique. For the low sunspot number time period of March 1995–February 1996, one week of data centred on the Priority Regular World Day for each month have been used to investigate night-time mid-latitude peaks occurring around midnight in the Australian region. TEC from TOPEX provided additional information related to the formation of the night-time peaks. Although night-time TEC enhancements have been observed previously, there is no general agreement on their origin. From the results of the present study, the development of midnight TEC enhancements coincided with the low latitude processes occurring at around the time of vertical E×B drift velocity reversal. The TOPEX results confirmed that the upward E×B drift velocity reversal and the downward plasma flow from greater heights producing the night-time peaks at mid latitudes are triggered from a common source: the westward electric field. 相似文献
19.
Summary The possibility of generation of magnetohydrodynamic waves in a rotating spherical system under the efect of small disturbances of the medium velocity is investigated. The initial stationary state of the system has been chosen with a view to known geophysical facts, and the effect of the solid inner core is considered. It is proved that two types of waves with distinctly different frequencies can be generated in the liquid region. The behaviour of longperiod magnetic waves is also studied in detail, and it is proved that the direction in which they propagate at a certain point depends on the position of this point in the meridional plane and on the configuration of the initial magnetic field. The phase velocities of the longperiod magnetic waves, propagating towards the west, have been computed within a selected network of points and the region in which they are generated has been defined. It is proved that the phase velocities of these waves are compatible with the observed velocity of the westward drift of the geomagnetic dipole. 相似文献
20.
Based on the data of the ground observations, the global distributions of the Pc5 geomagnetic pulsation amplitudes during the recovery phase of the superstorm of October 31, 2003, have been mapped, and an unusually deep penetration of these pulsations into the inner magnetosphere has been found out. Thus, two more zones with identical dynamic spectra and oscillation amplitudes from the polar to equatorial latitudes have been detected in the postnoon sector simultaneously with morning classical Pc5 pulsations in the narrow (～63°–68° CGM) latitudinal band extended along longitude. The higher-latitude zone as if continues the morning band, and the lower-latitude zone is characterized by the maximal intensity at latitudes of ～50°–57° CGM. The oscillation amplitudes are of the same order of magnitude in both zones. The zones are spatially separated by a very narrow latitudinal amplitude minimum and by a change in the phase and sense of rotation of the wave polarization vector. The pulsation spectra in the morning and daytime sectors are different, which indicates that the nature of the morning and postnoon oscillations is different. 相似文献