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1.
In this paper a parameter estimation algorithm is developed to estimate uncertain parameters in two dimensional shallow water flow models. Since in practice the open boundary conditions of these models are usually not known accurately, the uncertainty of these boundary conditions has to be taken into account to prevent that boundary errors are interpreted by the estimation procedure as parameter fluctuations. Therefore the open boundary conditions are embedded into a stochastic environment and a constant gain extended Kalman filter is employed to identify the state of the system. Defining a error functional that measures the differences between the filtered state of the system and the measurements, a quasi Newton method is employed to determine the minimum of this functional. To reduce the computational burden, the gradient of the criterium that is required using the quasi Newton method is determined by solving the adjoint system.  相似文献   

2.
Hybrid simulation is a powerful and cost‐effective simulation technique to evaluate structural dynamic performance. However, it is sometimes rather difficult to guarantee all the boundaries on the physical substructures, especially when the boundary conditions are very complex, due to limited laboratory resources. Lacking of boundary conditions is bound to change the stress state of the structure and eventually result in an inaccurate evaluation of structural performance. A model updating‐based online numerical simulation method is proposed in this paper to tackle the problem of incomplete boundary conditions. In the proposed method, 2 sets of finite element models with the same constitutive model are set up for the overall analysis of the whole structure and the constitutive model parameter estimation of the physical substructure, respectively. The boundary conditions are naturally satisfied because the response is calculated from the overall structural model, and the accuracy is improved as the material constitutive parameters are updated. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated via numerical simulations and actual hybrid tests on a RC frame structure, and the results show that the negative effect of incomplete boundary conditions is almost eliminated and the accuracy of hybrid simulation is very much improved.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, we perform an inverse method to simultaneously estimate aquifer parameters, initial condition, and boundary conditions in groundwater modelling. The parameter estimation is extended to a complete inverse problem that makes the calibrated groundwater flow model more realistic. The adjoint state method, the gradient search method, and the least square error algorithm are combined to build the optimization procedure. Horizontal two‐dimensional groundwater flow in a confined aquifer is exemplified to demonstrate the correlation between unknowns, the contribution of observation, as well as the suitability of applying the inverse method. The correlation analysis shows the connection between storage coefficient and initial condition. Besides, transmissivity and boundary conditions are also highly correlated. More observations at different location and time are necessary to provide sufficient information. A time series of unsteady head is requested for estimation of storage coefficient and initial condition. Observation near boundary is very effective for boundary condition estimation. The observation at pumping well mostly contributes to the estimation of transmissivity. According to all observations, it is possible to identify parameters, initial condition, and boundary condition simultaneously. Furthermore, the results not only illustrate the traditional assumption of known boundary condition but also initial condition, which may cause an incorrect estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The peer‐to‐peer (P2P) Internet online hybrid test system has been developed for the seismic simulation of a structure. In this study, the stability and accuracy of the system are investigated analytically by studying the spectral radius of the recursive matrix of the test scheme featuring a two‐round quasi‐Newton test scheme. The applicability of the system is further examined by exploring the seismic responses of a complex structure, a steel‐encased reinforced concrete (SRC) structure with a steel tower on the top. The structure is divided into two numerical substructures and one tested part for hybrid test. The numerical substructures are simulated by sophisticated finite element method (FEM) models with material nonlinearities to capture local plastifications. Two types of FEM programs, namely OpenSEES and ABAQUS, which are suitable for the SRC part and the steel tower, respectively, are employed. The results demonstrate that the P2P system is able to simulate complex structures with significant nonlinearities. As compared with the previous study in which two elastic numerical substructures were considered, increase in the number of iterations in this study is not significant, because the associated nonlinearities are limited due to the small time interval adopted in the test. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
本文将拟牛顿法与信赖域法相结合的反演方法用于地震震中和一维速度结构的联合反演. 通过数值试验比较发现：用拟牛顿法构造Hessian矩阵,虽然仅利用目标函数的一阶导数信息, 但由于保证了正定性和拟牛顿条件, 比解析求得Hessian矩阵更加高效稳定, 通过与信赖域方法的结合,使得该联合反演方法与经典的联合反演方法相比不仅具有较高的计算效率和较高的反演精度,同时也具有更强的总体收敛性.利用本文方法对台湾集集地震重新定位结果（纬度2386°N, 经度12080°E, 深度10km, 发震时刻1999年9月21日17:47:160）与前人主流结果一致.此外,该方法对不同初始速度模型以及不同的地震到时数据集均可给出较一致的结果,进一步表明该方法的优越性.本文还利用1998～2001年间华北遥测地震台网40个台站记录到的64次地震的971条P直达波和首波到时资料,采用本文提出的方法吩北京及其邻区的一维地壳P波速度结构进行联合反演, 结果表明该地区浅层地壳速度较低,中部地壳速度较高, 下部地壳速度逐渐递增.  相似文献   

6.
A modelling framework for the quick estimate of flood inundation and the resultant damages is developed in this paper. The model, called the flood economic impact analysis system (FEIAS), can be applied to a river reach of any hydrogeological river basin. For the development of the integrated modelling framework, three models were employed: (1) a modelling scheme based on the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN model that was developed for any geomorphological river basin, (2) a river flow/floodplain model, and (3) a flood loss estimation model. The first sub‐model of the flood economic impact analysis system simulates the hydrological processes for extended periods of time, and its output is used as input to a second component, the river/floodplain model. The hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) is the river/floodplain model employed in this study. The simulated flood parameters from the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) are passed, at the end of each time step, to a third component, the flood loss model for the estimation of flood damage. In the present work, emphasis was given to the seasonal variation of Manning's coefficient (n), which is an important parameter for the determination of the flood inundation in hydraulic modelling. High values of Manning's coefficient for a channel indicate high flow resistance. The riparian vegetation can have a large impact on channel resistance. The modelling framework developed in this paper was used to investigate the role of riparian vegetation in reducing flood damage. Moreover, it was used to investigate the influence of cutting riparian vegetation scenarios on the flow characteristics. The proposed framework was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece, and was tested and validated with historical data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
High-resolution models and realistic boundary conditions are necessary to reproduce the mesoscale dynamics of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). In order to achieve this, we use a nested configuration of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), where the Atlantic TOPAZ system provides lateral boundary conditions to a high-resolution (5 km) model of the GOM . However, such models cannot provide accurate forecasts of mesoscale variability, such as eddy shedding event, without data assimilation. Eddy shedding events involve the rapid growth of nonlinear instabilities that are difficult to forecast. The known sources of error are the initial state, the atmospheric condition, and the lateral boundary condition. We present here the benefit of using a small ensemble forecast (10 members) for providing confidence indices for the prediction, while using a data assimilation scheme based on optimal interpolation. Our set of initial states is provided by using different values of a data assimilation parameter, while the atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed randomly. Changes in the data assimilation parameter appear to control the main position of the large features of the GOM in the initial state, whereas changes in the boundary conditions (lateral and atmospheric) appears to control the propagation of cyclonic eddies at their boundary. The ensemble forecast is tested for the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006). The Loop Current and eddy fronts observed from ocean color and altimetry are almost always within the estimated positions from the ensemble forecast. The ensemble spread is correlated both in space and time to the forecast error, which implies that confidence indices can be provided in addition to the forecast. Finally, the ensemble forecast permits the optimization of a data assimilation parameter for best performance at a given forecast horizon.  相似文献   

8.
A set of algorithms combined with a substructure technique is proposed for an online hybrid test framework, in which the substructures are encapsulated by a standard interface that implements displacements and forces at the common substructure boundaries. A coordinator equipped with the proposed algorithms is designed to achieve boundary compatibility and equilibrium, thereby endowing the substructures the ability to behave as one piece. A model‐based predictor and corrector, and a noniterative procedure, characterize the set of algorithms. The coordinator solves the dynamics of the entire structure and updates the static boundary state simultaneously by a quasi‐Newton procedure, which gradually formulates the condensed stiffness matrix associated with corresponding degrees of freedom. With the condensed stiffness matrix and dynamic information, a condensed equation of motion is derived and then solved by a typical time integration algorithm. Three strategies for updating the condensed stiffness matrix are incorporated into the proposed algorithms. Each adopts different stiffness matrix during the predicting and correcting stage. These algorithms are validated by two numerical substructure simulations and a hybrid test. The effectiveness and feasibility are fully demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Evaporative flux is a key component of hydrological budgets. Water loss through evapotranspiration reduces volumes available for run‐off. The transition from liquid to water vapour on open water surfaces requires heat. Consequently, evaporation act as a cooling mechanism during summer. Both river discharge and water temperature simulations are thus influenced by the methods used to model evaporation. In this paper, the impact of evapotranspiration estimation methods on simulated discharge is assessed using a semidistributed model on two Canadian watersheds. The impact of evaporation estimation methods on water temperature simulations is also evaluated. Finally, the validity of using the same formulation to simulate both of these processes is verified. Five well‐known evapotranspiration models and five evaporation models with different wind functions were tested. Results show a large disparity (18–22% of mean annual total evapotranspiration) among the evapotranspiration methods, leading to important differences in simulated discharge (3–25% of observed discharge). Larger differences result from evaporation estimation methods with mean annual divergences of 34–48%. This translates into a difference in mean summer water temperature of 1–15%. Results also show that the choice of model parameter has less influence than the choice of evapotranspiration method in discharge simulations. However, the parameter values influence thermal simulations in the same order of magnitude as the choice of evaporation estimation method. Overall, the results of this study suggest that evapotranspiration and open water evaporation should be represented separately in a hydrological modelling framework, especially when water temperature simulations are required.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

An approach is presented to solve the inverse problem for simultaneous identification of different aquifer parameters under steady-state conditions. The proposed methodology is formulated as a maximum likelihood parameter estimation problem. Gauss-Newton and full Newton algorithms are used for optimization with an adjoint-state method for calculating the complete Hessian matrix. The methodology is applied to a realistic groundwater model and Monte-Carlo analysis is used to check the results.  相似文献   

11.
Full waveform inversion is a powerful tool for quantitative seismic imaging from wide‐azimuth seismic data. The method is based on the minimization of the misfit between observed and simulated data. This amounts to the solution of a large‐scale nonlinear minimization problem. The inverse Hessian operator plays a crucial role in this reconstruction process. Accounting accurately for the effect of this operator within the minimization scheme should correct for illumination deficits, restore the amplitude of the subsurface parameters, and help to remove artefacts generated by energetic multiple reflections. Conventional minimization methods (nonlinear conjugate gradient, quasi‐Newton methods) only roughly approximate the effect of this operator. In this study, we are interested in the truncated Newton minimization method. These methods are based on the computation of the model update through a matrix‐free conjugate gradient solution of the Newton linear system. We present a feasible implementation of this method for the full waveform inversion problem, based on a second‐order adjoint state formulation for the computation of Hessian‐vector products. We compare this method with conventional methods within the context of 2D acoustic frequency full waveform inversion for the reconstruction of P‐wave velocity models. Two test cases are investigated. The first is the synthetic BP 2004 model, representative of the Gulf of Mexico geology with high velocity contrasts associated with the presence of salt structures. The second is a 2D real data‐set from the Valhall oil field in North sea. Although, from a computational cost point of view, the truncated Newton method appears to be more expensive than conventional optimization algorithms, the results emphasize its increased robustness. A better reconstruction of the P‐wave velocity model is provided when energetic multiple reflections make it difficult to interpret the seismic data. A better trade‐off between regularization and resolution is obtained when noise contamination of the data requires one to regularize the solution of the inverse problem.  相似文献   

12.
地球物理反演是获取地球信息的重要手段,其求解具有严重的不适定性.为获得稳定的反问题结果,通常需要在目标泛函中加入正则化约束项.正确地估计正则化参数一直是地球物理反问题中的难点.目前存在的选取方法需要根据大量的试验来确定正则化参数,工作量十分巨大,并且存在很大的经验性,很难得到最优的正则化参数.针对这个问题,本文提出了一种基于广义Stein无偏风险估计的正则化参数求取方法.该方法的具体思路是通过求解模型参数均方误差的广义Stein无偏风险估计函数,在反问题求解过程中自动求取正则化参数.本文模型测试结果表明,相比于目前常用的方法,通过该方法得到的正则化参数是最优的.  相似文献   

13.
Modeling the spread of subsurface contaminants requires coupling a groundwater flow model with a contaminant transport model. Such coupling may provide accurate estimates of future subsurface hydrologic states if essential flow and contaminant data are assimilated in the model. Assuming perfect flow, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) can be used for direct data assimilation into the transport model. This is, however, a crude assumption as flow models can be subject to many sources of uncertainty. If the flow is not accurately simulated, contaminant predictions will likely be inaccurate even after successive Kalman updates of the contaminant model with the data. The problem is better handled when both flow and contaminant states are concurrently estimated using the traditional joint state augmentation approach. In this paper, we introduce a dual estimation strategy for data assimilation into a one-way coupled system by treating the flow and the contaminant models separately while intertwining a pair of distinct EnKFs, one for each model. The presented strategy only deals with the estimation of state variables but it can also be used for state and parameter estimation problems. This EnKF-based dual state-state estimation procedure presents a number of novel features: (i) it allows for simultaneous estimation of both flow and contaminant states in parallel; (ii) it provides a time consistent sequential updating scheme between the two models (first flow, then transport); (iii) it simplifies the implementation of the filtering system; and (iv) it yields more stable and accurate solutions than does the standard joint approach. We conducted synthetic numerical experiments based on various time stepping and observation strategies to evaluate the dual EnKF approach and compare its performance with the joint state augmentation approach. Experimental results show that on average, the dual strategy could reduce the estimation error of the coupled states by 15% compared with the joint approach. Furthermore, the dual estimation is proven to be very effective computationally, recovering accurate estimates at a reasonable cost.  相似文献   

14.
基于双相各向异性介质模型,首先推导了双相各向异性介质中弹性波传播的动力学方程及其Galerkin变分方程和有限元运动方程,然后给出了孔隙弹性波方程的有限元数值解法以及二维双相PTL介质中波场模拟的人为吸收边界条件. 最后,利用本文给出的有限元方法对双相PTL介质和双相各向同性介质中的弹性波传播进行了数值模拟. 结果表明:有限元方法和吸收边界条件有效、可行,在理想相界条件下,不论是从固体位移,还是从流体位移的波场快照都能看到明显的慢速拟P波;在黏滞相界情况下,能否观察到慢速拟P波,与含流体地层介质的耗散性质有关.对实际含流体介质,从流体位移分量的波场快照比从固体位移波场快照更容易观察到慢速拟P波.  相似文献   

15.
A new Internet online hybrid test system, designated the ‘peer‐to‐peer (P2P) Internet online hybrid test system’, is proposed. In the system, the simulated structure is divided into multiple substructures, and each substructure is analysed numerically or tested physically in parallel at geographically distributed locations. The equations of motion are not formulated for the entire structure but for each substructure separately. Substructures are treated as highly independent systems, and only standard I/O, i.e. displacements and forces at the boundaries, are used as interfaces. A ‘Coordinator’ equipped with an iterative algorithm based on quasi‐Newton iterations is developed to achieve compatibility and equilibrium at boundaries. A test procedure, featuring two rounds of quasi‐Newton iterations and using assumed elastic stiffness, is adopted to avoid iteration for the substructure being tested physically. A fast and stable solution using a socket mechanism is developed for data exchange over the Internet. Demonstration tests applied to a base‐isolated structure was conducted, and the results are compared with an online hybrid test using the conventional test method. The results obtained from the P2P Internet hybrid test match very closely those obtained from the conventional tests. Investigations are also carried out on time consumption and control accuracy. The results show that the Internet data exchange solution using the socket mechanism is fast, and tests were completed successfully under the constructed Internet online hybrid test environment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Ye Zhang 《Ground water》2014,52(3):343-351
Modeling and calibration of natural aquifers with multiple scales of heterogeneity is a challenging task due to limited subsurface access. While computer modeling plays an essential role in aquifer studies, large uncertainty exists in developing a conceptual model of an aquifer and in calibrating the model for decision making. Due to uncertainties such as a lack of understanding of subsurface processes and a lack of techniques to parameterize the subsurface environment (including hydraulic conductivity, source/sink rate, and aquifer boundary conditions), existing aquifer models often suffer nonuniqueness in calibration, leading to poor predictive capability. A robust calibration methodology is needed that can address the simultaneous estimations of aquifer parameters, source/sink, and boundary conditions. In this paper, we propose a multistage and multiscale approach that addresses subsurface heterogeneity at multiple scales, while reducing uncertainty in estimating the model parameters and model boundary conditions. The key to this approach lies in the appropriate development, verification, and synthesis of existing and new techniques of static and dynamic data integration. In particular, based on a given set of observation data, new inversion techniques can be first used to estimate aquifer large‐scale effective parameters and smoothed boundary conditions, based on which parameter and boundary condition estimation can be refined at increasing detail using standard or highly parameterized estimation techniques.  相似文献   

17.
Mehl S 《Ground water》2006,44(4):583-594
This study examines the use of Picard and Newton iteration to solve the nonlinear, saturated ground water flow equation. Here, a simple three-node problem is used to demonstrate the convergence difficulties that can arise when solving the nonlinear, saturated ground water flow equation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with and without nonlinear boundary conditions. For these cases, the characteristic types of convergence patterns are examined. Viewing these convergence patterns as orbits of an attractor in a dynamical system provides further insight. It is shown that the nonlinearity that arises from nonlinear head-dependent boundary conditions can cause more convergence difficulties than the nonlinearity that arises from flow in an unconfined aquifer. Furthermore, the effects of damping on both convergence and convergence rate are investigated. It is shown that no single strategy is effective for all problems and how understanding pitfalls and merits of several methods can be helpful in overcoming convergence difficulties. Results show that Picard iterations can be a simple and effective method for the solution of nonlinear, saturated ground water flow problems.  相似文献   

18.
A hybrid numerical and experimental simulation to collapse was conducted on a one‐half scale moment‐resisting frame building with two experimental substructures at different locations. An extensible hybrid test framework was used that adopts a generalized interface to encapsulate each numerical or tested substructure, through which only boundary displacements and forces are exchanged. Equilibrium and compatibility between substructures are enforced by an iterative quasi‐Newton procedure, while adopting a predictor‐and‐corrector method to avoid loading reversals on physically tested substructures. To overcome difficulties in controlling stiff axial and rotational deformations at the boundaries, the flexible test scheme employs either open‐loop or closed‐loop control at the boundaries: enforcing either compatibility or equilibrium, or both requirements at critical boundaries. The effectiveness of the extensible framework and its capability to simulate structural behavior through collapse is demonstrated by a geographically distributed test that reproduced the collapse behavior of a four‐story, two‐bay, steel moment frame previously tested on an earthquake simulator. A comparison of both experiments highlights the viability of the hybrid test as an effective tool for the performance evaluation of structural systems from the onset of damage through collapse. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The conditions under which the Saint Venant equations system for unsteady open channel flow, as an initial–boundary value problem, becomes self‐similar are investigated by utilizing one‐parameter Lie group of point scaling transformations. One of the advantages of this methodology is that the self‐similarity conditions due to the initial and boundary conditions can also be investigated thoroughly in addition to the conditions due to the governing equation. The obtained self‐similarity conditions are compared with the scaling relationships that are derived through the Froude similitude. It is shown that the initial–boundary value problem of a one‐dimensional unsteady open channel flow process in a prototype domain can be self‐similar with that of several different scaled domains. However, the values of all the flow variables (at specified time and space) under different scaled domains can be upscaled to the same values in the prototype domain (at the corresponding time and space), as shown in this study. Distortion in scales of different space dimensions has been implemented extensively in physical hydraulic modelling, mainly because of cost, space and time limitations. Unlike the traditional approach, the distinction is made between the longitudinal–horizontal and transverse–horizontal length scales in this study. The scaled domain obtained by the proposed approach, when scaling ratios of channel width and water depth are equal, is particularly important for the similarity of flow characteristics in a cross‐section because the width‐to‐depth ratio and the inclination angles of the banks are conserved in a cross‐section. It is also shown that the scaling ratio of the roughness coefficient under distorted channel conditions depends on that of hydraulic radius and longitudinal length. The proposed scaling relations obtained by the Lie group scaling approach may provide additional spatial, temporal and economical flexibility in setting up physical hydraulic models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Assessment of parameter and predictive uncertainty of hydrologic models is an essential part in the field of hydrology. However, during the past decades, research related to hydrologic model uncertainty is mostly done with conceptual models. As is accepted that uncertainty in model predictions arises from measurement errors associated with the system input and output, from model structural errors and from problems with parameter estimation. Unfortunately, non-conceptual models, such as black-box models, also suffer from these problems. In this paper, we take the artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall-runoff model as an example, and the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) is employed to analysis the parameter and predictive uncertainty of this model. Furthermore, based on the results of uncertainty assessment, we finally arrive at a simpler incomplete-connection artificial neural network (ICANN) model as well as with better performance compared to original ANN rainfall-runoff model. These results not only indicate that SCEM-UA can be a useful tool for uncertainty analysis of ANN model, but also prove that uncertainty does exist in ANN rainfall-runoff model. Additionally, in some way, it presents that the ICANN model is with smaller uncertainty than the original ANN model.  相似文献   

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