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1.
In this paper, the ground motion at Guwahati city for an 8.1 magnitude earthquake on Oldham fault in the Shillong plateau has been estimated by stochastic finite-fault simulation method. The corresponding acceleration time histories on rock level at several sites in the epicentral region have been computed. These results are validated by comparing them with the estimates obtained from Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) intensity observations of 1897 Shillong earthquake. Using the local soil parameters, the simulated rock level acceleration time history at Guwahati city is further amplified up to the ground surface by nonlinear site response analysis. The results obtained are presented in the form of peak ground acceleration (PGA) contour map. The maximum amplification for PGA over Guwahati city is as high as 2.5. Based on the simulated PGA, the liquefaction susceptibility at several locations in the city has been estimated. The results are presented in the form of contours of factor of safety against liquefaction at different depths below the ground surface. It is observed that over a large part of the Guwahati city, the factor of safety against liquefaction is less than one, indicating that the city is highly vulnerable to liquefaction in the event of this earthquake. The contour maps obtained can be used in identifying vulnerable areas and disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

2.
This paper discusses a newly developed high-quality integrated dataset of shallow earthquake ground motions that occurred in Iran, from 1976 to 2013. A total of 860 three-component strong motion records are processed from 183 earthquake events, moment magnitudes 5.0?≤?M w ?≤?7.4, and rupture distances of R RUP  ≤ 120 km. Strong motion data from Iran having special tectonic features and shallow earthquakes with depths less than 35 km are included. This paper presents a thorough procedure used to collect and to generate a database following the Next-Generation Attenuation-West research projects. This database can be used in the development and ranking of ground motion models and for seismological and engineering hazard and risk analyses. Unprocessed strong motion records are obtained from the Iranian Strong Motion Network (ISMN). The time series collected were thoroughly examined through several rounds of quality reviews. The newly generated database includes the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-spectral acceleration for the 5% damped with periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The database also includes ground motion information and source characterization and parameters. This study is the near-source compiled ground motion database that can be used for Iran, and it is consistent with standard worldwide databases.  相似文献   

3.
The 19 October 2012 earthquake (M L = 5.1) occurred in the northern continental margin of Egypt within the Nile Cone at latitude 32.35° N and longitude 31.27° E. The quake was felt over a wide area in north Egypt and East Mediterranean countries, but no casualties have been reported. This area had experienced the large earthquake (Ms = 6.7) of 12 September 1955. The fault plane solution of the 19 October 2012 earthquake is here presented based on the digital seismograms recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) and other regional seismic stations. The analysis is carried out using the well-known techniques of first motion polarities of P-wave and the amplitude ratios of P-, SH-, and SV-waves with lower hemisphere projection. The fault plane solution based on the first P-wave onset demonstrates a left lateral strike-slip faulting mechanism, while the solution based on both P-wave polarities and amplitude ratios of P-, SH-, and SV-waves reveals a reverse fault with strike-slip component trending NW–SE to NE–SW, in conformity with the N–S compression along the Hellenic Arc convergence zone. Following the Brune’s model, the source dynamic parameters for the 19 October 2012 earthquake are estimated as corner frequency = 1.47 Hz, fault radius = 0.7 km, stress drop = 22.1 MPa, seismic moment = 2.80E + 16 Nm, and moment magnitude M w = 4.9. These parameters may provide important quantitative information for the seismic hazard assessment studies.  相似文献   

4.
A. Joshi  Sandeep  Kamal 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):587-609
Modification in the semi-empirical technique for the simulation of strong ground motion has been introduced to incorporate the strong motion generation areas (SMGA) in the modeled rupture plane. Strong motion generation areas identified within the rupture plane of the Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 (M w = 9.0), have been modeled using this modified technique. Two different source models having four and five SMGAs, respectively, are considered for modeling purpose. Strong motion records using modified semi-empirical technique have been simulated at two near-field stations located at epicentral distance of 137 and 140 km, respectively, using two different source models. Comparison of the observed and simulated acceleration waveforms is made in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) at both stations. Minimum root mean square error of the waveform comparison has been obtained at both the stations for source model having five SMGAs. Simulations from same rupture model have been made at other four stations lying at epicentral distance between 154 and 249 km. Comparison of observed and simulated records has been made in terms of RMSE in acceleration records, velocity records and response spectra at each six station. Simulations have been made at six other stations to obtain distribution of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity with hypocentral distance. Peak ground acceleration and velocity from simulated and observed records are compared at twelve stations surrounding the source of Tohoku earthquake. Comparison of waveforms and parameters extracted from observed and simulated strong motion records confirms the efficacy of the developed modified technique to model earthquake characterized by SMGAs.  相似文献   

5.
Indian peninsular shield, which was once considered to be seismically stable, is experiencing many earthquakes recently. As part of the national level microzonation programme, Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India has initiated microzonation of greater Bangalore region. The seismic hazard analysis of Bangalore region is carried out as part of this project. The paper presents the determination of maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and generation of synthetic acceleration time history plot for the Bangalore region. MCE has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius around Bangalore city. The seismotectonic map has been prepared by considering the faults, lineaments, shear zones in the area and historic earthquake events of more than 150 events. Shortest distance from the Bangalore to the different sources is measured and then peak ground acceleration (PGA) is calculated for the different source and moment magnitude. Maximum credible earthquake found in terms of moment magnitude is 5.1 with PGA value of 0.146 g at city centre with assuming the hypo central distance of 15.88 km from the focal point. Also, correlations for the fault length with historic earthquake in terms of moment magnitude, yields (taking the rupture fault length as 5% of the total fault length) a PGA value of 0.159 g. Acceleration time history (ground motion) and a response acceleration spectrum for the corresponding magnitude has been generated using synthetic earthquake model considering the regional seismotectonic parameters. The maximum spectral acceleration obtained is 0.332 g for predominant period of 0.06 s. The PGA value and synthetic earthquake ground motion data from the identified vulnerable source using seismotectonic map will be useful for the PGA mapping and microzonation of the area.  相似文献   

6.
An earthquake of magnitude 6.9 (M w) occurred in the Sikkim region of India on September 18, 2011. This earthquake is recorded on strong-motion network in Uttarakhand Himalaya located about 900 km away from the epicenter of this earthquake. In this paper acceleration record from six far-field stations has been used to compute the source parameters of this earthquake. The acceleration spectra of ground motion at these far-field stations are strongly affected by both local site effects and near-site anelastic attenuation. In the present work the spectrum of S-phase recorded at these far-field stations has been corrected for anelastic attenuation at both source and site and the site amplification terms. Site amplifications at different stations and near-site shear wave attenuation factor have been computed by the technique of inversion of acceleration spectra given by Joshi et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 169:1821–1845, 2012a). For estimation of site amplification and shear wave quality factor [Q β (f)] at the recording sites, ten local events recorded at various stations between July 2011 and December 2011 have been used. The obtained source spectrum from acceleration records is compared with the theoretical source spectrum defined by Brune (J Geophys Res 76:5002, 1970) at each station for both horizontal components of the records. Iterative forward modeling of theoretical source spectrum gives the average estimate of seismic moment (M o), source radius (r o) and stress drop (Δσ) as (3.2 ± 0.8) × 1026 dyne cm, 13.3 ± 0.8 km and 59.2 ± 8.8 bars, respectively, for the Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011.  相似文献   

7.
The San Ramón Fault is an active west-vergent thrust fault system located along the eastern border of the city of Santiago, at the foot of the main Andes Cordillera. This is a kilometric crustal-scale structure recently recognized that represents a potential source for geological hazards. In this work, we provide new seismological evidences and strong ground-motion modeling from hypothetic kinematic rupture scenarios, to improve seismic hazard assessment in the Metropolitan area of Central Chile. Firstly, we focused on the study of crustal seismicity that we relate to brittle deformation associated with different seismogenic fringes in the main Andes in front of Santiago. We used a classical hypocentral location technique with an improved 1D crustal velocity model, to relocate crustal seismicity recorded between 2000 and 2011 by the National Seismological Service, University of Chile. This analysis includes waveform modeling of seismic events from local broadband stations deployed in the main Andean range, such as San José de Maipo, El Yeso, Las Melosas and Farellones. We selected events located near the stations, whose hypocenters were localized under the recording sites, with angles of incidence at the receiver <5° and S–P travel times <2 s. Our results evidence that seismic activity clustered around 10 km depth under San José de Maipo and Farellones stations. Because of their identical waveforms, such events are interpreted like repeating earthquakes or multiplets and therefore providing first evidence for seismic tectonic activity consistent with the crustal-scale structural model proposed for the San Ramón Fault system in the area (Armijo et al. in Tectonics 29(2):TC2007, 2010). We also analyzed the ground-motion variability generated by an M w 6.9 earthquake rupture scenario by using a kinematic fractal k ?2 composite source model. The main goal was to model broadband strong ground motion in the near-fault region and to analyze the variability of ground-motion parameters computed at various receivers. Several kinematic rupture scenarios were computed by changing physical source parameters. The study focused on statistical analysis of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGAH) and ground velocity (PGVH). We compared the numerically predicted ground-motion parameters with empirical ground-motion predictive relationships from Kanno et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 96:879–897, 2006). In general, the synthetic PGAH and PGVH are in good agreement with the ones empirically predicted at various source distances. However, the mean PGAH at intermediate and large distances attenuates faster than the empirical mean curve. The largest mean values for both, PGAH and PGVH, were observed near the SW corner within the area of the fault plane projected to the surface, which coincides rather well with published hanging-wall effects suggesting that ground motions are amplified there.  相似文献   

8.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is developed here using maximum credible earthquake magnitude statistics and earthquake perceptibility hazard. Earthquake perceptibility hazard is defined as the probability a site perceives ground shaking equal to or greater than a selected ground motion level X, resulting from an earthquake of magnitude M, and develops estimates for the most perceptible earthquake magnitude, M P(max). Realistic and usable maximum magnitude statistics are obtained from both whole process and part process statistical recurrence models. These approaches are extended to develop relationships between perceptible earthquake magnitude hazard and maximum magnitude recurrence models that are governed by asymptotic and finite return period properties, respectively. Integrated perceptibility curves illustrating the probability of a specific level of perceptible ground motion due to all earthquakes over the magnitude range extending from ?∞ to a magnitude M i are then developed from reviewing site-specific magnitude perceptibility. These lead on to achieving site-specific annual probability of exceedance hazard curves for the example cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki for both horizontal ground acceleration and ground velocity. Both the maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3 and the most perceptible earthquake magnitude M P(max) are of importance to the earthquake engineer when approaching anti-seismic building design. Both forms of hazard are illustrated using contoured hazard maps for the region bounded by 39°–45°N, 19°–29°E. Patterns are observed for these magnitude hazard estimates—especially M P(max) specific to horizontal ground acceleration and horizontal ground velocity—and compared to inferred patterns of crustal deformation across the region. The full geographic region considered is estimated to be subject to a maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3—estimated using cumulative seismic moment release statistics—of 7.53 M w, calculated from the full content of the adopted earthquake catalogue, while Bulgaria’s capital, Sofia, is estimated a comparable value of 7.36 M w. Sofia is also forecast most perceptible earthquake magnitudes for the lowest levels considered for horizontal ground acceleration of M PA(50) = 7.20 M w and horizontal ground velocity of M PV(5) = 7.23 M w for a specimen focal depth of 15 km.  相似文献   

9.
Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.  相似文献   

10.
Earthquakes in Kenya are common along the Kenya Rift Valley because of the slow divergent movement of the rift and hydrothermal processes in the geothermal fields. This implies slow but continuous radiation of seismic energy, which relieves stress in the subsurface rocks. On the contrary, the NW-SE trending rift/fault zones such as the Aswa-Nyangia fault zone and the Muglad-Anza-Lamu rift zone are the likely sites of major earthquakes in Kenya and the East African region. These rift/fault zones have been the sites of a number of strong earthquakes in the past such as the M w = 7.2 southern Sudan earthquake of 20 May 1990 and aftershocks of M w = 6.5 and 7.1 on 24 May 1990, the 1937 M s = 6.1 earthquake north of Lake Turkana close to the Kenya-Ethiopian border, and the 1913 M s = 6.0 Turkana earthquake, among others. Source parameters of the 20 May 1990 southern Sudan earthquake show that this earthquake consists of only one event on a fault having strike, dip, and rake of 315°, 84°, and ?3°. The fault plane is characterized by a left-lateral strike slip fault mechanism. The focal depth for this earthquake is 12.1 km, seismic moment M o = 7.65 × 1019 Nm, and moment magnitude, M w = 7.19 (?7.2). The fault rupture started 15 s earlier and lasted for 17 s along a fault plane having dimensions of ?60 km × 40 km. The average fault dislocation is 1.1 m, and the stress drop, ?σ, is 1.63 MPa. The distribution of historical earthquakes (M w ≥ 5) from southern Sudan through central Kenya generally shows a NW-SE alignment of epicenters. On a local scale in Kenya, the NW–SE alignment of epicenters is characterized by earthquakes of local magnitude M l ≤ 4.0, except the 1928 Subukia earthquake (M s = 6.9) in central Kenya. This NW–SE alignment of epicenters is consistent with the trend of the Aswa-Nyangia Fault Zone, from southern Sudan through central Kenya and further southwards into the Indian Ocean. We therefore conclude that the NW–SE trending rift/fault zones are sites of strong earthquakes likely to pose the greatest earthquake hazard in Kenya and the East African region in general.  相似文献   

11.
Takashi Furumura 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1519-1524
The sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, which included an initial M6.5 foreshock on April 14, followed by a larger M7.3 mainshock on April 16, and subsequently occurred high aftershock activity, caused significant damage in Kumamoto and neighboring regions. The near-field strong motion record by strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and the intensity meter network demonstrated clearly the characteristics of the strong ground motion developed by the shallow (H = 12 km), inland earthquake comprising short-time duration (<15–20 s) but large (>1G) ground accelerations. The velocity response spectra of the near-fault motion at Mashiki and Nishihara showed large levels (>300–550 cm/s) in the short-period range (T = 1–2 s), several times larger than that of the near-field record of the destructive 1995 Kobe earthquake (M7.3) and that of the 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake (M6.8). This period corresponds to the collapse vulnerability of Japanese wooden-frame houses, and is the major cause of severe damage during the Kumamoto earthquake. The response spectra also showed extremely large levels (>240–340 cm/s) in the long-period (T > 3 s) band, which is potentially disastrous for high-rise buildings, large oil storage tanks, etc. to have longer resonant period. Such long-period motion was, for the most parts, developed by the static displacement of the fault movement rather than by the seismic waves radiating from the source fault. Thus, the extreme near-fault long-period motion was hazardous only close to the fault but it attenuated very rapidly away from the fault.  相似文献   

12.
Study of the 26 December 2011 Aswan earthquake,Aswan area,South of Egypt   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The source process and parameters for a moderate earthquake of magnitude Ml 4.1 that occurred on the Kalabsha fault at the Aswan area are analyzed. The derived focal mechanisms of this event and other two aftershocks using polarities of P, SV, and SH waves show strike-slip fault with minor vertical movement of normal type. The solutions give two nodal planes trending ENE–WSW and NNW–SSE in close agreement with the surface traces of the faults crossing the area. The movement is right lateral along the first plane while left lateral along the second one. The rupture process characterization of this event has been investigated by using the empirical Green’s function deconvolution method. By inversion only for the P wave part of the records of these three events (main and other two aftershocks), the source time function for the master events and the azimuthally variations in the (RSTF) pulse amplitude are retrieved for estimating the rupture directivities. The estimated rupture direction is combined with the P-wave focal mechanisms for the three events to identify the fault plane solution for these earthquakes. Based on the width, amplitudes, and numbers of the isolated source time functions, a complex bi-lateral rupture of the studied earthquake is delineated. The source parameters of the master event is calculated and the derived corner frequencies f o for P-wave spectra show a value of 6.6 Hz; the seismic moment (M o ) is 4.2?×?1022 Nm; the average displacement (U) is 0.5 m; fault radius (r) 40 m; the average value of the stress drops (Δσ) is 0.6 Mpa, and the moment magnitude (M w ) is 4.4.  相似文献   

13.
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in North East India is presented in this paper to evaluate the ground motion at bedrock level. Analyses were performed considering the available earthquake catalogs collected from different sources since 1731–2010 within a distance of 500 km from the political boundaries of the states. Earthquake data were declustered to remove the foreshocks and aftershocks in time and space window and then statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness. Based on seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major seismogenic zones and subsequently seismicity parameters (a and b) were calculated using Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship. Faults data were extracted from SEISAT (Seismotectonic atlas of India, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi, 2000) published by Geological Survey of India and also from satellite images. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° (approximately 5 km × 5 km), and the hazard parameters (rock level peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations) were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 500 km. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for Tripura and Mizoram states using the predictive ground motion equations given by Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) and Gupta (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30:368–377, 2010) for subduction belt. Attenuation relations were validated with the observed PGA values. Results are presented in the form of hazard curve, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra for Agartala and Aizawl city (respective capital cities of Tripura and Mizoram states). Spatial variation of PGA at bedrock level with 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been presented in the paper.  相似文献   

14.
The East Anatolian Fault Zone is a continental transform fault accommodating westward motion of the Anatolian fault. This study aims to investigate the source properties of two moderately large and damaging earthquakes which occurred along the transform fault in the last two decades using the teleseismic broadband P and SH body waveforms. The first earthquake, the 27 June 1998 Adana earthquake, occurred beneath the Adana basin, located close to the eastern extreme of Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. The faulting associated with the 1998 Adana earthquake is unilateral to the NE and confined to depths below 15 km with a length of 30 km along the strike (53°) and a dipping of 81° SE. The fixed-rake models fit the data less well than the variable-rake model. The main slip area centered at depth of about 27 km and to the NE of the hypocenter, covering a circular area of 10 km in diameter with a peak slip of about 60 cm. The slip model yields a seismic moment of 3.5?×?1018 N-m (Mw???6.4). The second earthquake, the 1 May 2003 Bingöl earthquake, occurred along a dextral conjugate fault of the East Anatolian Fault Zone. The preferred slip model with a seismic moment of 4.1?×?1018 N-m (Mw???6.4) suggests that the rupture was unilateral toward SE and was controlled by a failure of large asperity roughly circular in shape and centered at a depth of 5 km with peak displacement of about 55 cm. Our results suggest that the 1998 Adana earthquake did not occur on the mapped Göksun Yakap?nar Fault Zone but rather on a SE dipping unmapped fault that may be a split fault of it and buried under the thick (about 6 km) deposits of the Adana basin. For the 2003 Bingöl earthquake, the final slip model requires a rupture plane having 15° different strike than the most possible mapped fault.  相似文献   

15.
In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor (A) and frequency (f) was empirically established as A = 0.36f + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ decreases. Present estimate of $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake.  相似文献   

16.
We performed a probabilistic analysis of earthquake hazard input parameters, NW Turkey covers Gelibolu and Biga Peninsulas, and its vicinity based on four seismic sub-zones. The number of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 3.0 occurred in this region for the period between 1912 and 2007 is around 5130. Four seismic source sub-zones were defined with respect to seismotectonic framework, seismicity and fault geometry. The hazard perceptibility characterization was examined for each seismic source zone and for the whole region. The probabilities of earthquake recurrences were obtained by using Poisson statistical distribution models. In order to determine the source zones where strong and destructive earthquakes may occur, distribution maps for a, b and a/b values were calculated. The hazard scaling parameters (generally known as a and b values) in the computed magnitude–frequency relations vary in the intervals 4.28–6.58 and 0.59–1.13, respectively, with a RMS error percentage below 10 %. The lowest b value is computed for sub-zone three indicating the predominance of large earthquakes mostly at Gelibolu (Gallipoli) and north of Biga Peninsula (southern Marmara region), and the highest b value is computed for sub-zone two Edremit Bay (SW Marmara region). According to the analysis of each seismic sub-zone, the greatest risk of earthquake occurrence is determined for the triangle of Gelibolu–Tekirda? western part of Marmara Sea. Earthquake occurrence of the largest magnitude with 7.3 within a 100-year period was determined to be 46 % according to the Poisson distribution, and the estimated recurrence period of years for this region is 50 ± 12. The seismic hazard is pronounced high in the region extending in a NW–SE direction, north of Edremit Bay, west of Saros Bay and Yenice Gönen (southern Marmara region) in the south. High b values are generally calculated at depths of 5–20 km that can be expressed as low seismic energy release and evaluated as the seismogenic zone.  相似文献   

17.
In conventional seismic hazard analysis, uniform distribution over area and magnitude range is assumed for the evaluation of source seismicity which is not able to capture peculiar characteristic of near-fault ground motion well. For near-field hazard analysis, two important factors need to be considered: (1) rupture directivity effects and (2) occurrence of scenario characteristic ruptures in the nearby sources. This study proposed a simple framework to consider these two effects by modifying the predictions from the conventional ground motion model based on pulse occurrence probability and adjustment of the magnitude frequency distribution to account for the rupture characteristic of the fault. The results of proposed approach are compared with those of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The results indicate that characteristic earthquake and directivity consideration both have significant effects on seismic hazard analysis estimates. The implemented approach leads to results close to deterministic seismic hazard analysis in the short period ranges (T < 1.0 s) and follows probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results in the long period ranges (T > 1.0 s). Finally, seismic hazard maps based on the proposed method could be developed and compared with other methods.  相似文献   

18.
In this study, stochastic finite fault modeling is used to simulate Uttarkashi (1991) and Chamoli (1999) earthquakes using all available source, path, and site parameters available for the region. These two moderate earthquakes are recorded at number of stations of a strong motion network. The predicted peak ground accelerations at these stations are compared with the observed data and the ground motion parameters are constrained. The stress drop of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes is constrained at 77 and 65?bars, respectively, whereas the quality factor Q C is 112 $ f^{0.97} $ and 149 $ f^{0.95} $ for these two regions. The high-frequency attenuation parameter Kappa is in the range 0.04?C0.05. The constrained ground motion parameters are then used to simulate Mw 8.5 earthquake in central seismic gap region of Himalaya. Two scenarios are considered with epicenter of future great earthquake at locations of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes using above constrained parameters. The most vulnerable towns are the towns of Dehradun and Almora where expected PGA is in excess of 600?cm/s2 at VS30 520?m/s when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Uttarkashi (1991) earthquake. The towns of Shimla and Chandigarh can expect PGA close to 200?cm/s2. Whereas when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Chamoli (1999) earthquake, the towns of Dehradun and Almora can expect PGA of around 500 and 400?cm/s2, respectively, at VS30 620?m/s. The National Capital Region, Delhi can expect accelerations of around 80?cm/s2 in both the cases. The PGA contour maps obtained in this study can be used to assess the seismic hazard of the region and identify vulnerable areas in and around central Himalaya from a future great earthquake.  相似文献   

19.
Guwahati city is a major city in the northeastern region of India, which is growing rapidly in every aspect, particularly the major infrastructures like sports complex, educational institutions, flyovers, multiplex halls, etc. Two great earthquakes struck this region in 1897 and 1950, and large-scale liquefaction was reported in and around the Guwahati city. However, a detailed microzonation study for liquefaction is not available so far and is taken up accordingly. The liquefaction potential of the Guwahati city is estimated using hundred boreholes data located at different places of city with a design peak ground acceleration of 0.36?g. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety contours at several depths below the ground surface. These contour maps indicate that most of the sites in Guwahati city area are susceptible to liquefaction and hence this aspect has to be considered in earthquake-resistant design of foundations/structures in Guwahati city.  相似文献   

20.
Great earthquakes in the past (e.g. 1869 Cachar earthquake, 1897 great Assam earthquake) have caused large scale damage and ground liquefaction in the Guwahati city. Moreover, seismologists are of opinion that a great earthquake might occur in the unruptured segment of the North-East Himalaya that is near to Guwahati city. In this paper, the liquefaction hazard due to these events have been simulated. The obtained results are in general agreement with the reported damages due to the past earthquakes. The central part of the city (i.e. Dispur, GS road), that has large thickness of soft soil deposit and shallow ground water table, is highly vulnerable to liquefaction.  相似文献   

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