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1.
基于空间滤波方法的中国省际人口迁移驱动因素 总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4
人口迁移数据中往往存在较强的网络自相关性,以往基于最小二乘估计的重力模型与迁移数据的拟合度较低,而改进后的泊松重力模型仍存在过度离散的缺陷,以上问题均导致既有人口迁移模型中的估计偏差。本文构建了特征向量空间滤波（ESF）负二项重力模型,基于2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,研究2010-2015年中国省际人口迁移的驱动因素。结果表明：① 省际人口迁移流间存在显著的空间溢出效应,ESF能有效地提取数据中的网络自相关性以降低模型的估计偏差,排序在前1.4%的特征向量即可提取较强的网络自相关信息。② 省际人口迁移流之间存在明显的过度离散现象,考虑到数据离散的负二项重力模型更适用于人口迁移驱动因素的估计。③ 网络自相关性会导致模型对距离相关变量估计的上偏与大部分非距离变量估计的下偏,修正后的模型揭示出以下驱动因素：区域人口特征、社会网络、经济发展、教育水平等因素是引发省际人口迁移的重要原因,而居住环境与公路网络等因素也逐渐成为影响人口迁移重要的“拉力”因素。④ 与既有研究相比,社会网络因素(迁移存量、流动链指数)对人口迁移的影响日益增强,而空间距离对人口迁移的影响进一步呈现弱化趋势。 相似文献
2.
长三角区域经济发展中的劳动力迁移流动研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
劳动力的迁移流动及其区域效应是当今区域经济学关注的重点。通过对区域经济发展进程中的劳动力迁移流动态势及区域效应的分析,可以深入了解中国区域发展进程的经济社会演化态势,并对中国制定区域经济发展政策提供实证依据。利用第五次人口普查的数据分析可知,长三角区域经济发展进程中呈现了劳动力高强度集聚、长三角内迁移流动活跃、劳动力迁移强度与经济发展水平显著相关等劳动力迁移流动态势,与此同时,长三角劳动力迁移流动对长三角各地区的受教育程度、人才密度、城市化水平等方面将造成影响。在未来,经济社会演变对长三角劳动力的迁移流动将产生新的影响。 相似文献
3.
中国市域工业污染对劳动力集聚的影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于2003~2016年中国286个地级及以上城市数据,研究工业污染和劳动力空间分布的演化特征及内在联系,继而将地区收入水平和工业集聚作为门槛变量研究工业污染对劳动力集聚影响。结果表明：①工业污染和劳动力的重心在移动方向上背向而驰,工业污染重心整体向北移动,劳动力重心整体向南移动,工业污染与劳动力的空间分布演化特征与二者相应的重心移动轨迹相契合。②工业污染会造成劳动力集聚水平降低,且随着地区收入水平的提高,高污染水平导致劳动力集聚水平下降的现象愈发明显。③以工业集聚作为门槛变量时,工业污染对劳动力集聚的影响存在明显的区域差异性,全国和东部地区劳动力集聚水平呈现出先降低后升高特征,中部地区为逐步升高的正向效应,西部地区则是逐步降低的负向效应。 相似文献
4.
以往对"三驾马车"认知停留在其对经济增长的增量影响,缺乏空间方向概念。由此,以经济重心作为衡量经济空间结构的指标,并以广西为例,从拉动经济增长的消费、投资和出口"三驾马车"视角出发,通过重心和灰色关联度模型,对比分析"三驾马车"重心与经济重心的演化路径,进一步揭示三大拉力对经济重心空间迁移的影响。结果表明:2004—2014年广西经济重心迁移路径呈"S"型,2010,2013年分别为重心空间转向的拐点;在空间位置方面,与经济重心邻近程度由高至低依次是消费重心、投资重心和出口重心;在迁移路径方面,消费重心的移动距离最小且变动较为稳定;出口重心的移动距离最大,整体上呈往西南方向迁移态势;投资重心与经济重心的迁移路径在2009年以后的走势较为一致。在拉力作用方面,"三驾马车"对经济重心在不同阶段及不同方向上的影响强弱不一,整体而言是投资大于消费大于出口。 相似文献
5.
中国人口省际流动重力模型的参数标定与误差估算 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
空间交互模型被广泛应用于地理要素关系强度的模拟,然而目前大量研究或建立在模型参数标定理想化、模式化的假设条件下,或是在暗箱中完成,由此导致模拟结果与实际的偏差却被严重低估。基于2015年中国春运期间人口省际流动的城市间O-D数据,在逐日、分市的研究精度下,实证推算人口流动重力模型变量的回归系数,探究模型代理变量影响效应的空间异质性,并评估重力模型在人口流动模拟上的误差。结果显示：① 重力模型参数标定的复杂性体现在交互对象代理变量影响程度的非对称性,和变量回归系数的空间异质性随研究精度加深显著加剧两个方面,因此模型参数标定的模式化将导致估算结果空间差异的趋势收敛;② 2015年春运期间中国人口省际流动距离衰减系数为1.970,在地级行政单元视角下,人口流出地距离衰减系数值域为0.712（驻马店）~7.699（乌鲁木齐）,人口流入地系数值域为0.792（三亚）~8.223（乌鲁木齐）;③ 应用重力模型模拟人口流动结果与实测流（百度迁徙数据）存在显著误差。就加权绝对平均误差而言,拟合总误差为85.54%,其中空间相互作用效应造成了86.09%的实测流与模拟流的最大误差,相对流出力、相对吸引力分别造成57.73%、49.34%的模型误差。因此,空间交互效应仍然是当前最难以模式化的因素。 相似文献
6.
Papademetriou DG 《Environment and planning. C, Government & policy》1984,2(4):383-398
This paper addresses the migration situation and the increasingly passionate public debate that is a result of the presence of aliens in a state's territory. Foreign workers provide the labor necessary to maintain an industrial climate during times of critical labor scarcities. Due to this condition of selected labor shortages, labor importers become increasingly dependent on a constant supply of foreign labor, while the labor supply becomes more independent of the host's actual labor needs. The reality of permanence, especially with second generation migrants, creates social and cultural dilemmas--migrants become more assertive of their economic rights, and natives react negatively to the economic competition. International migration is a process structurally central both to the sending and to the receiving societies. The process has accomplished at least one important goal: it has significantly improved the economy of many families whose members have emigrated. What is needed is better attention to timing, structure, and the consequences of migration in the context of a class analysis that addresses the phenomenon of labor migration in terms of class struggle by migrants, capital, and domestic labor. Home community remains a primary reference point and a principal determinant of behavior for the emigrant. Societies are still quite inept, not only at predicting migration flows and their impacts on receiving societies, but also in understanding the linkages between emigration, return, and the development of the countries of worker origin. 相似文献
7.
改革开放以来,中国大规模的人口流动对资源的优化配置和经济快速发展产生了深远的影响.然而,中国的农村劳动力流动正逐渐从单向转变为城乡双向流动的格局,这一变化无疑将深刻影响我国农村地区的发展前景.文中采用对广东省云浮市农户的调查数据,通过构建Logistic模型,从农村外出劳动力个体行为决策的视角探讨农村劳动力回流的影响因素.实证研究表明:人力资本较低,年龄偏大,家庭儿童数量较多、老人数量较少和已婚的外出劳动力回流的可能性较大;而外出务工时间对回流概率的影响呈倒U型分布;家乡的非农就业机会与村庄的区位因素也显 相似文献
8.
劳动力回流的驱动因素与就业行为研究进展 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
全球化与经济一体化的深入促使劳动力的空间流动更为频繁,并呈现外出与回流并存的格局。作为发展中人口大国,中国的劳动力回流现象不断增多,流动“双向化”趋势日趋明显。本文从劳动力回流理论、回流动因、回流者的就业行为与影响机制入手,对国内外已有文献进行梳理分析,发现在回流理论中,主张成功/失败的经济理论长期占据主导地位,但这一分析范式开始受到社会学理论的挑战。回流决策不仅受外出者自身经济因素所驱使,而是在社会联系、地方经济政策环境等因素的综合影响下产生的。回流劳动力并不是简单的经济上的“失败者”,他们通过物质资本和人力资本积累,表现出更强的就业能力,通过自主创业等活动,促进了家庭收入的增加和家乡经济多元化。但由于制度环境及经济发展特点的差异,中国国内劳动力回流的动因与就业行为具有自身特点。最后,从回流理论、回流的空间效应及新生代农民工回流等方面对中国未来的回流研究进行了展望。 相似文献
9.
Over the last thirty years, nonmetropolitan regions across the United States have experienced volatile population shifts ranging from rapid growth to persistent decline. Several authors have suggested that the age structure of the population may contribute to these population trends. In the 1970s, the older baby boomers were entering labor and housing markets, while the younger boomers were enrolling in nonmetropolitan colleges and universities. By the 1980s, this large cohort was aging into a different stage in the life course. This article examines metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population shifts during the 1970s and 1980s within an age‐cohort framework. Using Public Use Microsample data from 1980 and 1990, the analysis explores relationships between housing market, labor market, place characteristics, and the migration flows of different age cohorts. The analysis focuses on cohort‐specific in‐migration to two regions: New England and the Four Corners states of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The results are consistent with a life‐course understanding of migration behavior, especially during the late 1970s, with older cohort shifts directed towards nonmetropolitan destinations and younger cohort shifts more influenced by labor and housing‐market variables. The results further demonstrate a large potential for future nonmetropolitan population growth, yet these growth experiences are likely to be regionally differentiated. These results have important policy implications for nonmetropolitan regions. 相似文献
10.
改革开放以来中国国内人口迁移及其研究 总被引：25，自引：7，他引：25
从人口迁移进程的变化、人口迁移的主要原因与迁移选择和迁移方式、迁移人口对城市社会经济活动的参与及影响等方面,综述中国改革开放以来的人口迁移进程及研究成果。大量的实证研究,使人们对中国国内人口迁移有了日益清晰的认识,但多数仍停留在国外人口迁移理论的框架之内。在人口迁移与加快户籍制度改革、与城市居民就业和产业结构调整的关系,及迁移人口对区域社会经济发展差异分析比较的影响等方面还需进行深入研究。 相似文献
11.
人口迁移的时空分异与影响机制一直是人口学研究关注的焦点。本文基于社保关系转移视角,从时间和空间两个维度探究黑龙江省城镇工作人口省内的中长期迁移规律与时空分异特征,并且结合人口推拉理论与OD模型,综合考虑经济和就业政策因素,建立了能够反映以社保劳动关系转移为基础的中长期人口迁移动力学模型。研究结果表明：基于社保关系的城镇工作人口迁移符合截断指数幂律分布,呈现列维飞行特点;该省省内人口迁出呈现多层级跨区域分布格局,人口迁入呈现“四核心-环东南”格局,人口迁入与迁出空间格局具有一定程度的类似性;黑龙江省边境城市人口流失情况较为严重;城镇职工迁移行为的无序性不断加大,迁移的频率较高;但是经过通过模拟,该省城镇职工的迁移系统趋向于平衡发展。 相似文献
12.
把握亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移规律,有助于新时期中国制定合理的国际移民政策,推动“一带一路”倡议迈向高质量发展。本文基于1990—2015年国际双边移民流量数据,运用社会网络分析和空间滤波面板负二项引力模型,阐明亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移的时空格局与驱动因素。研究发现：① 1990—2000年亚洲主要迁移流集中在西亚、南亚和东南亚各区域内部,且大多发生在邻国之间,2000—2015年出现多条横跨上述三大区域的大规模迁移流;② 人口迁移网络强度相对较低,联系紧密程度先升后降;③ 政治不稳定与战乱冲突是人口迁移的重要推动力,经济发展水平差异和国民收入差异是重要驱动力,多维邻近因素（经济邻近和文化邻近）也起到一定的推动作用;④ 25年间,经济差异的影响先增后减;政治不稳定一直是人口迁移的主要影响因素,且对人口迁出的影响更大;进出口贸易发展在部分时期积极促进人口流动,留学吸引力影响呈波动趋势;⑤ 非经济和结构性力量在亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移过程中起到决定性作用。 相似文献
13.
The household registration (hukou) system in China was studied using China's 1990 census 1% microdata and interprovincial migration studies. In doing this, the socioeconomic characteristics and geographical patterns of long-distance hukou and non-hukou migratory flows were compared before developing a framework of dual migration circuits. The framework uses a statistical model to evaluate migration rates in relation to both origin and destination variables. It was found that these two types of migrants shared some general demographic characteristics, but displayed substantial socioeconomic differences. The hukou migrants that tended to originate in urban areas had an extremely high share of college-educated people and were employed in higher skilled jobs, while non-hukou migrants were mostly from rural areas with much lower educational attainment. Hukou labor migrants tended to move through government and formal channels, while non-hukou migrants relied on their own, often informal, source of jobs. Furthermore, a difference as to the migration mechanisms between hukou and non-hukou migrants was noted. Non-hukou migration rate were tied positively to the migration stock, a process consistent with a networked migration hypothesis, while hukou migration rates were not. The rural labor migrants moved away from provinces of high population pressure to those with more favorable land/labor ratios, in line with neoclassical predictions. Hukou migration moved in the opposite direction, reflecting a different set of factors at work. The analysis indicates that the hukou system remained a relatively powerful institution in structuring migration in the 1980s. 相似文献
14.
高技能人才迁移是推进新型城镇化建设的重要议题,也是影响地区创新产出和高质量发展的关键要素。针对人才迁移数据中蕴含的零膨胀和网络自相关特性,本文将特征向量空间滤波（ESF）技术和“两阶段”Hurdle模型结合,构建空间Hurdle引力模型,结合2000—2015年中国省际高技能人才迁移面板数据,研究人才迁移的时空演化格局和驱动机制。研究结论显示：① 2000—2015年人才迁移的跨省迁移比例先升后降;人才迁移表征出集聚格局,维系了其空间分布的不均衡性;随时间推移,人才迁移格局呈现分散趋势,人才空间分布集聚性下降;人才迁移和空间分布均呈现出持续显著的网络与空间自相关性特征。② 引力因素（人口规模、空间距离）、地区经济和科技发展水平（工资、科教投入）、自然舒适度（平均温差、空气质量）、城市舒适度（医疗及教育公共服务、城市绿化）以及其他因素（社会网络、生活成本、人口密度）共同驱动了跨世纪以来中国省际人才迁移过程。③ 人才迁移可被看作一个“两阶段”过程,影响其迁移概率和迁移规模的因素呈现一定差异。④ 经济增速、科教投入、自然舒适度和基础公共服务对人才迁移的影响随时间增强,而工资和城市绿化的影响随时间减弱。本文的研究结论为地区人才治理及实现地区均衡发展提供政策参考。 相似文献
15.
改革开放以来福建省经济重心格局演变及其空间差异 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
引入重心概念,运用经济空间结构重心分析模型和福建省经济发展数据,本文计算出了1989～2008年福建省经济重心点及其移动方向、移动距离;通过GIS技术输出经济重心点的空间变化图,着重从移动方向、移动距离、空间相关性等层面,阐述了福建省20年来经济重心的动态变化及演变规律、进而反映出全省经济发展的空间差异。研究表明：福建... 相似文献
16.
Mark E. Reisinger 《The Professional geographer》2003,55(3):383-395
This research is grounded in notions of differential economic restructuring across employment sectors and geographic space, as well as migration selectivity by occupation. A series of unconstrained competing‐destinations models were employed to analyze the response by workers in thirteen occupational categories to sectoral employment change, average wages, and distance. As was hypothesized, workers in occupations that require high levels of education and skills are more responsive, in terms of migration, to economic opportunities in alternative labor‐market areas. However, the results do not support the hypothesis that highly educated and skilled workers migrate longer distances. Further investigation suggests that opportunities for highly educated and skilled workers may be clustering in relatively few areas that are in relatively close proximity. 相似文献
17.
旅游发展与乡村劳动力回流研究——以西递村为例 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
采取社会资本的研究视角,以安徽省南部世界文化遗产地西递村旅游发展与社会经济变迁的基本事实为案例,主要提出了一种对乡村外出劳动力向原社区回流并参与非农产业生产现象的社会经济解释。研究发现:①社区按年向有本社区户口的普通社区成员提供总收入相当比例的稳定收入,是吸引外出劳动力回流的重要原因;②社会资本和社会关系网络的效力在社区的空间范围之内才能得到发挥,是社区精英人物及与其有亲密关系的社区成员留守或回流的原因。 相似文献
18.
1990~2013年河南省县域人口、经济和粮食生产重心的迁移轨迹与耦合特征——兼议与社会剥夺的关系 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于社会剥夺理论,利用重心计算及空间耦合分析模型,研究了1990~2013年河南省县域人口重心、经济重心、粮食生产重心动态迁移及其空间耦合,并探讨其与社会发展水平之间的关系。结果表明：23 a来河南省经济、人口及粮食生产重心均在省域几何重心北部变动,空间错位格局日趋显著,变动一致性波动剧烈;2000年前人口重心与粮食重心耦合度较高,2000年后粮食重心与经济重心明显呈东南-西北路径背向偏离,粮食生产对经济重心迁移的影响持续下降,而人口重心与经济重心耦合度逐步提升;传统农区社会发展严重滞后于经济增长水平,粮食主产县区的“粮食与民生倒挂”特征显著。 相似文献
19.
An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth: Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output growth remains partial and contradictory. The main aim of this empirical study is to examine some specific measures adopted by peasants to deal with labor shortage and maintain grain output growth. Using tracking survey, participatory rural appraisal methods, and land plot investigation, we investigate 274 households and 1405 arable land plots in four villages in two stages in Jinchuan county, southwestern China. The results show that continuous emigration of labor from the four villages caused the abandonment of a small amount of land, decreased labor intensity, and reduced multiple cropping index, shifting from “corn-wheat” multiple cropping pattern to the “corn” cropping pattern, which means labor shortage in some households. At the same time, owing to surplus labor in the villages, the peasants utilize a series of means to offset the negative impacts of labor migration on grain output, such as cropland transfer, labor exchange in the busy seasons, and the substitution of capital and technology for labor. The econometric analysis also shows that labor migration boosts grain production. This study provides a reasonable explanation of grain output growth under rural-urban migration. 相似文献
20.
《地理学报(英文版)》2016,(4)
Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980 s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output growth remains partial and contradictory. The main aim of this empirical study is to examine some specific measures adopted by peasants to deal with labor shortage and maintain grain output growth. Using tracking survey, participatory rural appraisal methods, and land plot investigation, we investigate 274 households and 1405 arable land plots in four villages in two stages in Jinchuan county, southwestern China. The results show that continuous emigration of labor from the four villages caused the abandonment of a small amount of land, decreased labor intensity, and reduced multiple cropping index, shifting from "corn-wheat" multiple cropping pattern to the "corn" cropping pattern, which means labor shortage in some households. At the same time, owing to surplus labor in the villages, the peasants utilize a series of means to offset the negative impacts of labor migration on grain output, such as cropland transfer, labor exchange in the busy seasons, and the substitution of capital and technology for labor. The econometric analysis also shows that labor migration boosts grain production. This study provides a reasonable explanation of grain output growth under rural-urban migration. 相似文献