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1.
Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude
for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude
for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23.
Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is
expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). 相似文献
2.
Donald C. Norquist 《Solar physics》2011,269(1):111-127
Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence
with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007.
Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days,
SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright
brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions
of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and
frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial
Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot
groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had
a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot
group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when
all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found
likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible. 相似文献
3.
We demonstrate that a simple solar dynamo model, in the form of a Parker migratory dynamo with random fluctuations of the
dynamo governing parameters and algebraic saturation of dynamo action, can at least qualitatively reproduce all the basic
features of solar Grand Minima as they are known from direct and indirect data. In particular, the model successfully reproduces
such features as an abrupt transition into a Grand Minimum and the subsequent gradual recovery of solar activity, as well
as mixed-parity butterfly diagrams during the epoch of the Grand Minimum. The model predicts that the cycle survives in some
form during a Grand Minimum, as well as the relative stability of the cycle inside and outside of a Grand Minimum. The long-term
statistics of simulated Grand Minima appears compatible with the phenomenology of the Grand Minima inferred from the cosmogenic
isotope data. We demonstrate that such ability to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology is not a general feature of the
dynamo models but requires some specific assumption, such as random fluctuations in dynamo governing parameters. In general,
we conclude that a relatively simple and straightforward model is able to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology remarkably
well, in principle providing us with a possibility of studying the physical nature of Grand Minima. 相似文献
4.
John F. Hawley 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,320(1-3):107-114
Observations are providing increasingly detailed quantitative information about the accretion flows that power such high energy systems as X-ray binaries and Active Galactic Nuclei. These observations have been modeled in some detail by a variety of accretion scenarios, but such models rely on unavoidable assumptions such as regular flow geometry and a simple, parameterized stress. Global numerical simulations offer a way to investigate the basic physical dynamics of accretion flows without these assumptions. We are now carrying out fully three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of time-dependent inflows into Kerr black holes. The results from recent global simulations of black hole accretion disks will be reviewed, and some implications of those results for observations will be discussed. 相似文献
5.
Subdwarf B stars (sdBs) can significantly change the ultraviolet spectra of populations at age t～1 Gyr, and have been even included in the evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by Han et al. (Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 380:1098, 2007). In this study we present the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of binary stellar populations (BSPs) by combining the EPS models of Han et al. (Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 380:1098, 2007) and those of the Yunnan group (Zhang et al. in Astron. Astrophys. 415:117, 2004; Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 357:1088, 2005), which have included various binary interactions (except sdBs) in EPS models. This set of SEDs is available upon request from the authors. Using this set of SEDs of BSPs we build the spectra of Burst, E, S0–Sd and Irr types of galaxies by using the package of Bruzual and Charlot (Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 344:1000, 2003). Combined with the photometric data (filters and magnitudes), we obtain the photometric redshifts and morphologies of 1502 galaxies by using the Hyperz code of Bolzonella et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 363:476, 2000). This sample of galaxies is obtained by removing those objects, mismatched with the SDSS/DR7 and GALEX/DR4, from the catalogue of Fukugita et al. (Astron. J. 134:579, 2007). By comparison the results with the SDSS spectroscopic redshifts and the morphological index of Fukugita et al. (Astron. J. 134:579, 2007), we find that the photo-z fluctuate with the SDSS spectroscopic redshifts, while the Sa–Sc galaxies in the catalogue of Fukugita et al. (Astron. J. 134:579, 2007) are classified earlier as Burst-E galaxies. 相似文献
6.
S. Masson K.-L. Klein R. Bütikofer E. Flückiger V. Kurt B. Yushkov S. Krucker 《Solar physics》2009,257(2):305-322
The origin of relativistic solar protons during large flare/CME events has not been uniquely identified so far. We perform
a detailed comparative analysis of the time profiles of relativistic protons detected by the worldwide network of neutron
monitors at Earth with electromagnetic signatures of particle acceleration in the solar corona during the large particle event
of 20 January 2005. The intensity – time profile of the relativistic protons derived from the neutron monitor data indicates
two successive peaks. We show that microwave, hard X-ray, and γ-ray emissions display several episodes of particle acceleration within the impulsive flare phase. The first relativistic
protons detected at Earth are accelerated together with relativistic electrons and with protons that produce pion-decay γ rays during the second episode. The second peak in the relativistic proton profile at Earth is accompanied by new signatures
of particle acceleration in the corona within ≈1R
⊙ above the photosphere, revealed by hard X-ray and microwave emissions of low intensity and by the renewed radio emission
of electron beams and of a coronal shock wave. We discuss the observations in terms of different scenarios of particle acceleration
in the corona. 相似文献
7.
The high quality of the asteroseismic data provided by space missions such as CoRoT (Michel et al. in The CoRoT Mission, ESA Spec. Publ. vol. 1306, p. 39, 2006) or expected from new operating missions such as Kepler (Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. in Commun. Asteroseismol. 150:350, 2007) requires the capacity of stellar evolution codes to provide accurate models whose numerical precision is better than the expected observational errors (i.e. below 0.1 μHz on the frequencies in the case of CoRoT). We present a review of some thorough comparisons of stellar models produced by different evolution codes, involved in the CoRoT/ESTA activities (Monteiro in Evolution and Seismic Tools for Stellar Astrophysics, 2009). We examine the numerical aspects of the computations as well as the effects of different implementations of the same physics on the global quantities, physical structure and oscillations properties of the stellar models. We also discuss a few aspects of the input physics. 相似文献
8.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):177-190
From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective
of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007)
and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97)
with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means
indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux,
coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar
energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic
fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double
peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric
intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities
in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within
± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial
solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude
belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were
almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally,
the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very
weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°. 相似文献
9.
We study the relationship between the brightness (I) and magnetic field (B) distributions of sunspots using 272 samples observed at the San Fernando Observatory and the National Solar Observatory,
Kitt Peak, whose characteristics varied widely. We find that the I – B relationship has a quadratic form for the spots with magnetic field less than about 2000 G. The slope of the linear part
of the I – B curve varies by about a factor of three for different types of spots. In general the slope increases as the spot approaches
disk center. The I – B slope does not have a clear dependency on the spot size but the lower limit appears to increase as a function of the ratio
of umbra and penumbra area. The I – B slope changes as a function of age of the sunspots. We discuss various sunspot models using these results. 相似文献
10.
P. W. A. Roming C. Gronwall D. E. Vanden Berk M. J. Page P. T. Boyd 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,320(1-3):203-206
Currently there are four operating near-UV imaging space telescopes, one of which is the Swift Ultra-Violet/Optical Telescope (UVOT). Although the UVOT was primarily built for observations of γ-ray bursts, it has become a powerful instrument for studying other types of UV and optical astronomical phenomena. Here we discuss the properties of the UVOT, summarize some of the science undertaken with the UVOT, and present other possible science goals for the UVOT that have not yet been pursued. We also discuss some lessons learned that apply to future UV telescopes. 相似文献
11.
Cyclic variations of the mean semi-annual intensities I
of the coronal green line 530.3 nm are compared with the mean semi-annual variations of the Wolf numbers W during the period of 1943–1999 (activity cycles 18–23). The values of I
in the equatorial zone proved to correlate much better with the Wolf numbers in a following cycle than in a given one (the correlation coefficient r is 0.86 and 0.755, respectively). Such increase of the correlation coefficient with a shift by one cycle differs in different phases of the cycle, being the largest at the ascending branch. The regularities revealed make it possible to predict the behaviour of W in the following cycle on the basis of intensities of the coronal green line in the preceding cycle. We predict the maximum semi-annual W in cycle 23 to be 110–122 and the epoch of minimum between cycles 23 and 24 to take place at 2006–2007. A slow increase of I
in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number cycle 24 with the maximum W50 at 2010–2011. A scheme is proposed on the permanent transformation of the coronal magnetic fields of different scales explaining the found phenomenon. 相似文献
12.
The Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) observe solar plasma as it streams out from the Sun and into the heliosphere. The telescopes point off-limb (from
about 4° to 90° elongation) and so the Sun is not in the field of view. Hence, the Sun cannot be used to confirm the instrument
pointing. Until now, the pointing of the instruments have been calculated using the nominal preflight instrument offsets from
the STEREO spacecraft together with the spacecraft attitude data. This paper develops a new method for deriving the instrument
pointing solutions, along with other optical parameters, by comparing the locations of stars identified in each HI image with
the known star positions predicted from a star catalogue. The pointing and optical parameters are varied in an autonomous
manner to minimise the discrepancy between the predicted and observed positions of the stars. This method is applied to all
HI observations from the beginning of the mission to the end of April 2008. For the vast majority of images a good attitude
solution has been obtained with a mean-squared deviation between the observed and predicted star positions of one image pixel
or less. Updated values have been obtained for the instrument offsets relative to the spacecraft, and for the optical parameters
of the HI cameras. With this method the HI images can be considered as “self-calibrating,” with the actual instrument offsets
calculated as a byproduct. The updated pointing results and their by-products have been implemented in SolarSoft. 相似文献
13.
In this paper, using 2MASS photometry, we study the structural and dynamical properties of four young star clusters viz. King 16, NGC 1931, NGC 637 and NGC 189. For the clusters King 16, NGC 1931, NGC 637 and NGC 189, we obtain the limiting radii of 7′, 12′, 6′ and 5′ which correspond to linear radii of 3.6 pc, 8.85 pc, 3.96 pc and 2.8 pc respectively. The reddening values E(B?V) obtained for the clusters are 0.85, 0.65–0.85, 0.6 and 0.53 and their true distances are 1786 pc, 3062 pc, 2270 pc and 912 pc respectively. Ages of the clusters are 6 Myr, 4 Myr, 4 Myr and 10 Myr respectively. We compare their structures, luminosity functions and mass functions (φ(M)=dN/dM ∝ M ?(1+χ)) to the parameter τ=t age /t relax to study the star formation process and the dynamical evolution of these clusters. We find that, for our sample, mass seggregation is observed in clusters or their cores only when the ages of the clusters are comparable to their relaxation times (τ≥1). These results suggest mass seggregation due to dynamical effects. The values of χ, which characterize the overall mass functions for the clusters are 0.96±0.11, 1.16±0.18, 0.55±0.14 and 0.66±0.31 respectively. The change in χ as a function of radius is a good indicator of the dynamical state of clusters. 相似文献
14.
15.
The Recovery of CME-Related Dimmings and the ICME’s Enduring Magnetic Connection to the Sun 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
G. D. R. Attrill L. van Driel-Gesztelyi P. Démoulin A. N. Zhukov K. Steed L. K. Harra C. H. Mandrini J. Linker 《Solar physics》2008,252(2):349-372
It is generally accepted that transient coronal holes (TCHs, dimmings) correspond to the magnetic footpoints of CMEs that
remain rooted in the Sun as the CME expands out into the interplanetary space. However, the observation that the average intensity
of the 12 May 1997 dimmings recover to their pre-eruption intensity in SOHO/EIT data within 48 hours, whilst suprathermal
unidirectional electron heat fluxes are observed at 1 AU in the related ICME more than 70 hours after the eruption, leads
us to question why and how the dimmings disappear whilst the magnetic connectivity is maintained. We also examine two other
CME-related dimming events: 13 May 2005 and 6 July 2006. We study the morphology of the dimmings and how they recover. We
find that, far from exhibiting a uniform intensity, dimmings observed in SOHO/EIT data have a deep central core and a more
shallow extended dimming area. The dimmings recover not only by shrinking of their outer boundaries but also by internal brightenings.
We quantitatively demonstrate that the model developed by Fisk and Schwadron (Astrophys. J.
560, 425, 2001) of interchange reconnections between “open” magnetic field and small coronal loops is a strong candidate for the mechanism
facilitating the recovery of the dimmings. This process disperses the concentration of “open” magnetic field (forming the
dimming) out into the surrounding quiet Sun, thus recovering the intensity of the dimmings whilst still maintaining the magnetic
connectivity to the Sun.
Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
16.
Jagadish Singh 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,332(2):331-339
This paper investigates the nonlinear stability of the triangular equilibrium points under the influence of small perturbations
in the Coriolis and centrifugal forces together with the effect of oblateness and radiation pressures of the primaries. It
is found that the triangular points are stable for all mass ratios in the range of linear stability except for three mass
ratios depending upon above perturbations, oblateness coefficients and mass reduction factors. 相似文献
17.
D. Sokoloff H. Zhang K. M. Kuzanyan V. N. Obridko D. N. Tomin V. N. Tutubalin 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):17-28
A comparison between the two tracers of magnetic field mirror asymmetry in solar active regions – twist and current helicity
– is presented. It is shown that for individual active regions these tracers do not possess visible similarity but averaging
by time over the solar cycle, or by latitude, reveals similarities in their behavior. The main property of the data set is
antisymmetry over the solar equator. Considering the evolution of helical properties over the solar cycle we find signatures
of a possible sign change at the beginning of the cycle, though more systematic observational data are required for a definite
confirmation. We discuss the role of both tracers in the context of solar dynamo theory. 相似文献
18.
In this study we present the new R and I light curve solutions for the eclipsing binary systems RW CrB and VZ Leo, which for
VZ Leo is the first one in the literature. Our new observations have been analyzed using the Wilson-Devinney code from which
new geometric and photometric elements are derived. The geometry of both stars is that of a semi-detached binary system where
the secondary component fills its Roche lobe while the primary component is well inside. In the case of RW CrB, asymmetry
in the light curve was explained by a spot model. The orbital period changes of both systems were studied and the results
indicated a period decrease which can be explained by angular momentum loss. We also investigated the possibility of pulsations
of the primary components since these systems are mentioned as candidates of δ Sct type pulsation. However, a time-series analysis of the residual curves in the filter I does not indicate any evidence
of periodic light variation for both systems. Finally, we compared the results obtained for both binary stars to those of
similar systems. 相似文献
19.
B. Viswanathan R. Shanmugavel S. P. Bagare N. Rajamanickam P. Sriramachandran 《Solar physics》2009,257(2):261-269
High-resolution Fourier transform spectrometer sunspot umbral spectra obtained at the National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak
were used to identify molecular rotational lines arising from the infrared band systems of CrH and CrD molecules. Measurement
of the equivalent width used the Gaussian-profile approximation method, which is suitable especially for faint lines. Equivalent
widths are measured for an adequate number of best lines of the A – X (0,0) band of CrH and the A – X (0,0;1,0) bands of CrD
and, thereby, the effective rotational temperatures are estimated. 相似文献
20.
A new algorithm is presented that automatically detects filaments on the Sun in full-disc Hα images. Pre-processing of Hα images includes corrections for limb darkening and foreshortening. Further, by applying suitable intensity and size thresholds, filaments are extracted, while other solar features, e.g. sunspots and plages, are removed. Filament attributes such as their position on the solar disc, total area, length, and number of fragments are determined. In addition, every filament is also labelled with a unique number for identification. The algorithm is capable of following a particular filament through successive images, which allows us to detect their changes and disappearance. We have analysed ten cases of filament eruption from different observatories, and the results obtained are presented. The algorithm will eventually be integrated with an upcoming telescope at the Udaipur Solar Observatory for real-time monitoring of activated/eruptive filaments. This aspect should prove to be of particular importance in studies pertaining to space weather. 相似文献