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1.
Geological studies show evidence for temporal clustering of large earthquakes on individual fault systems. Since post-seismic deformation due to the inelastic rheology of the lithosphere may result in a variable loading rate on a fault throughout the interseismic period, it is reasonable to expect that the rheology of the non-seismogenic lower crust and mantle lithosphere may play a role in controlling earthquake recurrence times. We study this phenomenon using a 2-D, finite element method continuum model of the lithosphere containing a single strike-slip fault. This model builds on a previous study using a 1-D spring-dashpot-slider analogue of a single fault system to study the role of Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation in producing non-periodic earthquakes. In our 2-D model, the seismogenic portion of the fault slips when a predetermined yield stress is exceeded; stress accumulated on the seismogenic fault is shed to the viscoelastic layers below and recycled back to the seismogenic fault through viscoelastic relaxation. We find that random variation of the fault yield stress from one earthquake to the next can cause the earthquake sequence to be clustered; the amount of clustering depends on a non-dimensional number, W , called the Wallace number defined as the standard deviation of the randomly varied fault yield stress divided by the effective viscosity of the system times the tectonic loading rate. A new clustering metric based on the bimodal distribution of interseismic intervals allows us to investigate clustering behaviour of systems over a wide range of model parameters and those with multiple viscoelastic layers. For models with   W ≥ 1  clustering increases with increasing W , while those with   W ≤ 1  are unclustered, or quasi-periodic.  相似文献   

2.
We use GPS displacements collected in the 15 months after the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake  ( M w 7.6)  to evaluate whether post-seismic deformation is better explained by afterslip or viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. We find that all viscoelastic models tested fail to fit the general features in the post-seismic GPS displacements, in contrast to the satisfactory fit obtained with afterslip models. We conclude that afterslip is the dominant mechanism in the 15-month period, and invert for the space–time distribution of afterslip, using the Extended Network Inversion Filter. Our results show high slip rates surrounding the region of greatest coseismic slip. The slip-rate distribution remains roughly stationary over the 15-month period. In contrast to the limited coseismic slip on the décollement, afterslip is prominent there. Maximum afterslip of 0.57 m occurs downdip and to the east of the hypocentral region. Afterslip at hypocentral depths is limited to the southern part of the main shock rupture, with little or no slip on the northern section where coseismic slip was greatest. Whether this results from along strike variations in frictional properties or dynamic conditions that locally favour stable sliding is not clear. In general, afterslip surrounds the area of greatest coseismic slip, consistent with post-seismic slip driven by the main shock stress change. The total accumulated geodetic afterslip moment is  3.8 × 1019 N m  , significantly more than the seismic moment released by aftershocks,  6.6 × 1018 N m  . Afterslip and aftershocks appear to have different temporal evolutions and some spatial correlations, suggesting that aftershock rates may not be completely controlled by the rate of afterslip.  相似文献   

3.
A comparison is performed between predictions of coseismic and post-seismic deformations, based on two different earth models. The main purpose of this work is to clarify in a rigorous manner the role of sphericity in the assessment of both residual deformations and large-scale post-seismic motions. The two models considered in this study are commonly employed for predictions of post-seismic deformations. They exhibit the common feature of a layered viscoelastic structure but differ in their global geometrical features, the first being characterized by a flat-earth approximation and the second by a spherical geometry. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, we wish to assess the influence of sphericity in predictions of post-seismic deformations, especially in the far field of major earthquakes. Second, we wish to elucidate the potential role of stress migration in earthquake triggering over great distances.  相似文献   

4.
We combine Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements with forward modelling of viscoelastic relaxation and after-slip to study the post-seismic deformation of the 1997 Umbria-Marche (Central Apennines) moderate shallow earthquake sequence. Campaign GPS measurements spanning the time period 1999–2003 are depicting a clear post-seismic deformation signal. Our results favour a normal faulting rupture model where most of the slip is located in the lower part of the seismogenic upper crust, consistent with the rupture models obtained from the inversion of strong motion data. The preferred rheological model, obtained from viscoelastic relaxation modelling, consists of an elastic upper crust, underlain by a transition zone with a viscosity of 1018 Pa s, while the rheology of deeper layers is not relevant for the observed time-span. Shallow fault creep and after-slip at the base of the seismogenic upper crust are the first order processes behind the observed post-seismic deformation. The deep after-slip, below the fault zone at about 8 km depth, acting as a basal shear through localized time-dependent deformation, identifies a rheological discontinuity decoupling the seismogenic upper crust from the low-viscosity transition zone.  相似文献   

5.
The   M w γ 9.0  2004 December 26 Sumatra-Andaman and   M w = 8.7  2005 March 28 Nias earthquakes, which collectively ruptured approximately 1800 km of the Andaman and Sunda subduction zones, are expected to be followed by vigorous viscoelastic relaxation involving both the upper and lower mantle. Because of these large spatial dimensions it is desirable to fully account for gravitational coupling effects in the relaxation process. We present a stable method of computing relaxation of a spherically-stratified, compressible and self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The solution is cast in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion of viscoelastic normal modes. For simple layered viscoelastic models, which include a low-viscosity oceanic asthenosphere, we predict substantial post-seismic effects over a region several 100s of km wide surrounding the eastern Indian Ocean. We compare observed GPS time-series from ten regional sites (mostly in Thailand and Indonesia), beginning in 2004 December, with synthetic time-series that include the coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 2004 December 26 and 2005 March 28 earthquakes. A viscosity structure involving a biviscous (Burgers body) rheology in the asthenosphere explains the pattern and amplitude of post-seismic offsets remarkably well.  相似文献   

6.
The 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake profoundly altered the state of stress in a large volume surrounding the ∼1400 km long rupture. Induced mantle flow fields and coupled surface deformation are sensitive to the 3-D rheology structure. To predict the post-seismic motions from this earthquake, relaxation of a 3-D spherical viscoelastic earth model is simulated using the theory of coupled normal modes. The quasi-static deformation basis set and solution on the 3-D model is constructed using: a spherically stratified viscoelastic earth model with a linear stress–strain relation; an aspherical perturbation in viscoelastic structure; a 'static' mode basis set consisting of Earth's spheroidal and toroidal free oscillations; a "viscoelastic" mode basis set; and interaction kernels that describe the coupling among viscoelastic and static modes. Application to the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake illustrates the profound modification of the post-seismic flow field at depth by a slab structure and similarly large effects on the near-field post-seismic deformation field at Earth's surface. Comparison with post-seismic GPS observations illustrates the extent to which viscoelastic relaxation contributes to the regional post-seismic deformation.  相似文献   

7.
Destructive upper crustal earthquakes in Central America are often located between active volcanic centres—a geometric relationship that we study using finite element Coulomb failure stress (CFS) models that incorporate the rheologically heterogeneous nature of the volcanic arc. Volcanoes are simulated as mechanically weak zones within a stronger crust. We find that deformation of the volcanic centres within a regional stress field dominated by dextral shear causes stress increases in surrounding crust, with a maximum CFS change between neighbouring volcanoes. This increase in CFS enhances the probability of fault slip on arc-normal faults that are located between volcanic centres; for example, the Tiscapa fault, which ruptured during the 1972 December 13,   M s   6.2 Managua earthquake. The amount of stress increase due to long-term (100 yr) volcano shearing is on the order of 0.1–0.6 bars, similar to values estimated for subduction zone earthquakes.  相似文献   

8.
A large nearly vertical, normal faulting earthquake ( M w = 7.1) took place in 1997 in the Cocos plate, just beneath the ruptured fault zone of the great 1985 Michoacan thrust event ( M w = 8.1). Dynamic rupture and resultant stress change during the 1997 earthquake have been investigated on the basis of near-source strong-motion records together with a 3-D dynamic model.
Dynamically consistent waveform inversion reveals a highly heterogeneous distribution of stress drop, including patch-like asperities and negative stress-drop zones. Zones of high stress drop are mainly confined to the deeper, southeastern section of the vertical fault, where the maximum dynamic stress drop reaches 280 bars (28 MPa). The dynamically generated source time function varies with location on the fault, and yields a short slip duration, which is caused by a short scalelength of stress-drop heterogeneities. The synthetic seismograms calculated from the dynamic model are generally consistent with the strong-motion velocity records in the frequency range lower than 0.5 Hz.
The pattern of stress-drop distribution appears, in some sense, to be consistent with that of coseismic changes in shear stress resulting from the 1985 thrust event. This consistency suggests that the stress transfer from the 1985 event to the subducting plate could be one of the possible mechanisms that increased the chance of the occurrence of the 1997 earthquake.  相似文献   

9.
The GRACE satellite mission has been measuring the Earth's gravity field and its temporal variations since 2002 April. Although these variations are mainly due to mass transfer within the geofluid envelops, they also result from mass displacements associated with phenomena including glacial isostatic adjustment and earthquakes. However, these last contributions are difficult to isolate because of the presence of noise and of geofluid signals, and because of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution (>400 km half-wavelength). In this paper, we show that a wavelet analysis on the sphere helps to retrieve earthquake signatures from GRACE geoid products. Using a wavelet analysis of GRACE geoids products, we show that the geoid variations caused by the 2004 December ( M w= 9.2) and 2005 March ( M w= 8.7) Sumatra earthquakes can be detected. At GRACE resolution, the 2004 December earthquake produced a strong coseismic decrease of the gravity field in the Andaman Sea, followed by relaxation in the area affected by both the Andaman 2004 and the Nias 2005 earthquakes. We find two characteristic timescales for the relaxation, with a fast variation occurring in the vicinity of the Central Andaman ridge. We discuss our coseismic observations in terms of density changes of crustal and upper-mantle rocks, and of the vertical displacements in the Andaman Sea. We interpret the post-seismic signal in terms of the viscoelastic response of the Earth's mantle. The transient component of the relaxation may indicate the presence of hot, viscous material beneath the active Central Andaman Basin.  相似文献   

10.
The M w 5.4 Roermond earthquake of 1992 April 13 was one of the strongest events during the last 500 years in Central Europe. For the period March–May 1992, we collected records of 194 continuously operating well-level sensors, mostly located within 120  km of the epicentre. Nearly all wells penetrate unconfined or poorly confined Quaternary deposits with high hydraulic conductivities. 81 out of 194 raw data sets show a significant dynamic or step-like response of centimetre amplitude to the passage of seismic waves. Precursory anomalies are not obvious in these records. Coseismic well-level fluctuations could reflect a redistribution of stress and pore pressure in the brittle crust. Systematic analyses of such fluctuations may improve our knowledge of the role of pore fluids in crustal rheology and earthquake mechanics. The rather high number of individual observational records for a single event allows a regional correlation of the signs and amplitudes of the coseismic steps to changes in volume strain caused by the earthquake. The coseismic strain field at the surface was calculated for a homogeneous and a layered half-space. The results show reasonable agreement in the sign of the well-level steps but the amplitudes predicted from the wells' volumetric strain responses are much smaller than those that were recorded. Clearly, the coseismic well-level steps cannot be explained by volume strain changes, as derived from linear elastic models.  相似文献   

11.
10 M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939–1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1–10 bar, equivalent to 3–30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ≥ 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.  相似文献   

12.
A moderate earthquake of   M w= 6.8  occurred on 2003 December 10. It ruptured the Chihshang Fault in eastern Taiwan which is the most active segment of the Longitudinal fault as a plate suture fault between the Luzon arc of the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate. The largest coseismic displacements were 13 cm (horizontal) and 26 cm (vertical). We analyse 40 strong motion and 91 GPS data to model the fault geometry and coseismic dislocations. The most realistic shape of the Chihshang fault surface is listric in type. The dipping angle of the seismic zone is steep (about 60°–70°) at depths shallower than 10 km and then gradually decreases to 40°–50° at depths of 20–30 km. Thus the polygonal elements in Poly3D are well suited for modelling complex surfaces with curving boundaries. Using the strong motion data, the displacement reaches 1.2 m dip-slip on the Chihshang Fault and decreases to 0.1 m near surface. The slip averages 0.34 m, releasing a scalar moment of 1.6E26 dyne-cm. For GPS data, our model reveals that the maximal dislocation is 1.8 m dip-slip. The dislocations decrease to 0.1 m near the surface. The average slip is 0.48 m, giving a scalar moment of 2.2E26 dyne-cm. Regarding post-seismic deformation, a displacements of 0.5 m were observed near the Chihshang Fault, indicating the strain had not been totally released, as a probable result of near-surface locking of the fault zone.  相似文献   

13.
We systematically analysed shear wave splitting (SWS) for seismic data observed at a temporary array and two permanent networks around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) Observatory at Depth. The purpose was to investigate the spatial distribution of crustal shear wave anisotropy around the SAF in this segment and its temporal behaviour in relation to the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield M 6.0 earthquake. The dense coverage of the networks, the accurate locations of earthquakes and the high-resolution velocity model provide a unique opportunity to investigate anisotropy in detail around the SAF zone. The results show that the primary fast polarization directions (PDs) in the region including the SAF zone and the northeast side of the fault are NW–SE, nearly parallel or subparallel to the SAF strike. Some measurements on the southwest side of the fault are oriented to the NNE–SSW direction, approximately parallel to the direction of local maximum horizontal compressive stress. There are also a few areas in which the observed fast PDs do not fit into this general pattern. The strong spatial variations in both the measured fast PDs and time delays reveal the extreme complexity of shear wave anisotropy in the area. The top 2–3 km of the crust appears to contribute the most to the observed time delays; however substantial anisotropy could extend to as deep as 7–8 km in the region. The average time delay in the region is about 0.06 s. We also analysed temporal patterns of SWS parameters in a nearly 4-yr period around the 2004 Parkfield main shock based on similar events. The results show that there are no appreciable precursory, coseismic, or post-seismic temporal changes of SWS in a region near the rupture of an M 6.0 earthquake, about 15 km away from its epicentre.  相似文献   

14.
The Ethiopian side of central Afar was struck in August 1989 by the largest seismic sequence (three 6.1 ≤ M s ≤ 6.3 events, 15 with M s or m b ≥ 5.0) since that of Serdo in 1969. Using the Djibouti seismological network, we relocated 297 of the events of that sequence. As most of the large events took place outside the network, we assessed the accuracy and stability of earthquake relocations by using three different velocity models and two relocation codes to try to relate individual shocks to distinct faults and surface breaks. A majority of the events apparently occurred underneath the floor of the Dôbi graben, an area about 45  km long and 15  km wide, rupturing boundary and inner floor faults, in agreement with the surface cracks and scarps that we mapped in the area. The relocation shows that the principal events propagated about 50  km northwestwards along the graben in the first 40  hr. A day and a half after the beginning of the sequence, smaller events ( M ≤ 4) started to propagate more than 55  km eastwards, towards Asal Lake. Using two three-component stations installed near the Ethiopian border, we could determine reliable depths for 21 events. The depths are compatible with a seismogenic crust about 14  km thick in the Dôbi and Hanle graben area. Although the Dôbi sequence ruptured about 50  km of the fault array extending from Serdo to Asal, where the regional stress was released by earthquakes in 1969 and 1978, respectively, a seismic gap about 50  km long still subsists along the northern part of the Gaggade region (Der'êla half-graben).  相似文献   

15.
By inversion analysis of the baseline changes and horizontal displacements observed with GPS (Global Positioning System) during 1990–1994, a high-angle reverse fault was detected in the Shikoku-Kinki region, southwest Japan. The active blind fault is characterized by reverse dip-slip (0.7±0.2  m yr−1 within a layer 17–26  km deep) with a length of 208±5  km, a (down-dip) width of 9±2  km, a dip-angle of 51°±2° and a strike direction of 40°±2° (NE). Evidence from the geological investigation of subfaults close to the southwestern portion of the fault, two historical earthquakes ( M L=7.0, 1789 and 6.4, 1955) near the centre of the fault, and an additional inversion analysis of the baseline changes recorded by the nationwide permanent GPS array from 18 January to 31 December 1995 partially demonstrates the existence of the fault, and suggests that it might be a reactivation of a pre-existing fault in this region. The fact that hardly any earthquakes ( M L>2.0) occurred at depth on the inferred fault plane suggests that the fault activity was largely aseismic. Based on the parameters of the blind fault estimated in this study, we evaluated stress changes in this region. It is found that shear stress concentrated and increased by up to 2.1 bar yr−1 at a depth of about 20  km around the epicentral area of the 1995 January 17  Kobe earthquake ( M L=7.2, Japan), and that the earthquake hypocentre received a Coulomb failure stress of about 5.6 bar yr−1 during 1990–1994. The results suggest that the 1995  Kobe earthquake could have been induced or triggered by aseismic fault movement.  相似文献   

16.
Statistical study of the occurrence of shallow earthquakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Summary. The time—space-magnitude interaction of shallow earthquakes has been investigated for three catalogues: worldwide ( M ≥ 7.0), Southern and Northern California ( M ≥ 4.0) and Central California ( M ≥ 1.5). The earthquake sequences are considered as a multi-dimensional stochastic point process; the estimates of the parameters for a branching model of the seismic process are obtained by a maximum-likelihood procedure. After applying magnitude—time and magnitude—distance scaling, the pattern of relationship among earthquakes of different magnitude ranges is almost identical. The number of foreshocks diminishes as the magnitude difference between the main shock and the foreshocks increases, while the magnitude distribution of aftershocks has the opposite property. The strongest aftershocks are likely to occur at the beginning of the sequence; later they migrate away with velocities of the order of km/day. The sequences which are composed of smaller aftershocks last longer and there are indications that they remain essentially in the focal region. Foreshocks also appear to migrate, but in this case, toward the main shock. The rate of occurrence of dependent shocks increases as t -1 as the origin time of the main shock is approached, effectively making every earthquake a multi-shock event. This interaction of earthquakes was modelled by a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The statistical inversion of simulated catalogues was undertaken to derive the information we would be able to retrieve from actual data, as well as possible errors of estimates. The possibility of using these results as a tool for seismic risk prediction is discussed and evaluated.  相似文献   

17.
Morphological analysis of the Fortore River coastal plain and the Lesina Lake coastal barrier integrated with radiocarbon age data indicates that the evolution of the coastal landscape has been strongly affected by a number of strong earthquakes and related tsunamis which occurred during the last 3000 years. The first seismic event struck this coastal area in the V century BC. It produced strong erosion of the Fortore River coastal plain and significant emersion of Punta delle Pietre Nere, as well as the large tsunami responsible for the development of the Sant'Andrea washover fan. The second event occurred in 493 AD; it induced severe erosion of the Fortore River coastal plain and triggered the large tsunami that hit the Lesina Lake coastal barrier, producing the Foce Cauto washover fan. Then later in 1627, an earthquake was responsible for the further coseismic uplift of Punta delle Pietre Nere, the subsidence of Lesina village area and the development of a tsunami which produced two washover fans.Morphological analysis points out that seismic events strong enough to control the morphological evolution of local coastal landscapes show a statistical return period of about 1000 years. These major events produced important coseismic vertical movements and large tsunamis. However, the correct identification of the tectonic structure responsible for the generation of these strong earthquakes is still an unsolved problem.  相似文献   

18.
We present the results of body waveform modelling studies for 17 earthquakes of M w ≥5.7 occurring in the South Island, New Zealand region between 1918 and 1962, including the 1929 M s = 7.8 Buller earthquake, the largest earthquake to have occurred in the South Island this century. These studies confirm the concept of slip partitioning in the northern South Island between strike-slip faulting in southwestern Marlborough and reverse and strike-slip faulting in the Buller region, but indicate that the zone of reverse faulting is quite localized. In the central South Island, all historical earthquakes appear to be associated with strike-slip faulting, although recent (post-1991) reverse faulting events suggest that slip partitioning also occurs within this region. The difference between historical and recent seismicity in the central South Island may also reflect stress readjustment occurring in response to the 1717 ad rupture along the Alpine fault. Within the Fiordland region (southwestern South Island) none of the historical earthquakes appears to have occurred along the Australian/Pacific plate interface, but rather they are associated with complex deformation of the subducting plate as well as with deformation of the upper (Pacific) plate. Two earthquakes in the Puysegur Bank region south of the South Island suggest that strike-slip deformation east of the Puysegur Trench is playing a major role in the tectonics of the region.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
The Pisco earthquake ( M w 8.0; 2007 August 15) occurred offshore of Peru's southern coast at the subduction interface between the Nazca and South American plates. It ruptured a previously identified seismic gap along the Peruvian margin. We use Wide Swath InSAR observations acquired by the Envisat satellite in descending and ascending orbits to constrain coseismic slip distribution of this subduction earthquake. The data show movement of the coastal regions by as much as 85 cm in the line-of-sight of the satellite. Distributed-slip model indicates that the coseismic slip reaches values of about 5.5 m at a depth of ∼18–20 km. The slip is confined to less than 40 km depth, with most of the moment release located on the shallow parts of the interface above 30 km depth. The region with maximum coseismic slip in the InSAR model is located offshore, close to the seismic moment centroid location. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 1.23 × 1021 Nm ( M w 8.06), consistent with seismic estimates. The slip model inferred from the InSAR observations suggests that the Pisco earthquake ruptured only a portion of the seismic gap zone in Peru between 13.5° S and 14.5° S, hence there is still a significant seismic gap to the south of the 2007 event that has not experienced a large earthquake since at least 1687.  相似文献   

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