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1.
We relocate 81 large nuclear explosions that were detonated at the Balapan and Degelen Mountain subregions of the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan during the years 1978 to 1989. The absolute locations of these explosions are available, as well as very accurate estimates of their origin times. This ground truth information allows us to perform a detailed analysis of location capability. We use a sparse network of stations with highly accurate first arrival picks measured using a waveform cross-correlation method. These high quality data facilitate very accurate location estimates with only a few phases per event. We contrast two different approaches: 1) a calibration-based approach, where we achieve improved locations by using path corrections, and 2) a model-based approach, where we achieve improved locations by relocating in a recently published global 3-D P-velocity model. Both methods result in large improvements in accuracy of the obtained absolute locations, compared to locations obtained in a 1-D reference earth model (ak135). The calibration-based approach gives superior results for this test site, in particular when arrival times from regional stations are included. Estimated locations remain well within a 1000 km2 region surrounding the ground truth locations when the path corrections for the Balapan and Degelen Mountain subregions are interchanged, but even for the short separation between these two regions, we find variations in the path corrections that cause systematic mislocations. The model-based approach also results in substantially reduced mislocation distances and has the distinct advantage that it is, in principle, transportable to other source regions around the world.  相似文献   

2.
—?We test how well low-magnitude (m bLg 1.8 to 2.6), 25-ton chemical explosions at Balapan, Kazakhstan, can be located using IMS stations and standard earth models, relying on precisely determined relative arrival times of nearly similar, regional and teleseismic waveforms. Three 1997 Balapan explosions were recorded by a number of currently reporting and surrogate IMS stations. Three regional stations and two teleseismic arrays yielded consistent waveforms appropriate for relative picking. Master-event locations based on the AK135 model and ground-truth information from the first, shallowest and best-recorded explosion, fell under 1 km from known locations, for depths constrained to that of the master event. The resulting 90% confidence ellipses covered 12–13?km2 and contained the true locations; however, results for depth constrained to true depth were slightly less satisf actory. From predictions based on ground truth, we found a P g -coda phase at Makanchi, Kazakhstan to be misidentified and poorly modeled. After accounting for this, 90% ellipses shrank to 2–3?km2 and true-depth mislocation vectors became more consistent with confidence-ellipse orientations. These results suggest that a high level of precision could be provided by a tripartite array of calibration shots in cases where models are poorly known. We hope that the successful relocation of these small Balapan shots will support the role of calibration explosions in verification monitoring and special event studies, including on-site inspection.  相似文献   

3.
—?The IASPEI91 global travel-time curves are used as the default for event location at the Prototype International Data Center (PIDC). In order to improve event location, a 1-D Baltic travel-time model was implemented at the PIDC in 1997 for locating events using regional phases from Fennoscandian stations. Where a single model is insufficient for characterizing the regional geology, path-dependent corrections, or Source Specific Station Corrections (SSSCs), are more appropriate for event locations. We have developed SSSCs for regional phases at the Fennoscandian stations by interpolating travel times through different 1-D models. SSSCs for stations NRIS and SPITS are also derived, given the fact that paths from both stations to high latitude events are within the Fennoscandia regionalization as Baltic.¶Validation testing of the SSSCs demonstrates that using SSSCs in event location is superior to not using SSSCs, a nd, in most cases, to using the 1-D model directly when locating events. For a ground-truth data set which includes events in the Baltic Shield with location accuracy better than 2?km, the average improvement in location due to SSSCs is 9?km, and the median coverage ellipse is reduced by 2710?km2 (from 3830 to 1120?km2). These results are similar to those obtained using the 1-D Baltic model. For a CEB (Calibration Event Bulletin) data set which includes events along the North Atlantic oceanic ridge and in central/southern Europe, using SSSCs the ridge events move closer to the ridge axis, and the European events move closer to CEB locations than 1-D Baltic locations. For a constrained JHD (Joint Hypocenter Determination) data set of events in the Novaya Zemlya region, when using SSSCs or the 1-D Baltic model, relative to the JHD locations mislocations are less or similar to those without SSSCs. All coverage ellipses are smaller but sti ll contain the JHD solutions.¶Our SSSCs are strongly dependent on the 1-D regional models and regionalization. Future development in 1-D velocity models and travel-time curves should improve such SSSCs, event locations, and uncertainties. It is hoped that the implementation and demonstration of SSSCs in the PIDC software will encourage these further developments. These SSSCs were implemented at the PIDC for Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) location in April 1999.  相似文献   

4.
—?An important requirement for a comprehensive seismic monitoring system is the capability to accurately locate small seismic events worldwide. Accurate event location can improve the probability of determining whether or not a small event, recorded predominantly by local and regional stations, is a nuclear explosion. For those portions of the earth where crustal velocities are not well established, reference event calibration techniques offer a method of increased locational accuracy and reduced locational bias.¶In this study, data from a set of mining events with good ground-truth data in the Powder River Basin region of eastern Wyoming are used to investigate the potential of event calibration techniques in the area. Results of this study are compared with locations published in the prototype International Data Center's Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). A Joint Hypocenter Determination (JHD) method was applied to a s et of 23 events. Four of those events with superior ground-truth control (mining company report or Global Positioning System data) were used as JHD reference events. Nineteen (83%) of the solutions converged and the resulting set of station-phase travel-time corrections from the JHD results was then tested. When those travel-time corrections were applied individually to the four events with good ground-truth control, the average locational error reduced the original REB location error from 16.1?km to 5.7?km (65% improvement). The JHD locations indicated reduced locational bias and all of the individual error ellipses enclosed the actual known event locations.¶Given a set of well-recorded calibration events, it appears that the JHD methodology is a viable technique for improving locational accuracy of future small events where the location depends on arrival times from predominantly local and/or regional stations. In this specific case, the International Associ ation of Seismology and the Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI) travel-time tables, coupled with JHD-derived travel-time corrections, may obviate the need for an accurately known regional velocity structure in the Powder River Basin region.  相似文献   

5.
In the quantitative evaluation of radar-rainfall products (maps), rain gauge data are generally used as a good approximation of the true ground rainfall. However, rain gauges provide accurate measurements for a specific location, while radar estimates represent areal averages. Because these sampling discrepancies could introduce noise into the comparisons between these two sensors, they need to be accounted for. In this study, the spatial sampling error is defined as the ratio between the measurements by a single rain gauge and the true areal rainfall, defined as the value obtained by averaging the measurements by an adequate number of gauges within a pixel. Using a non-parametric scheme, the authors characterize its full statistical distribution for several spatial (4, 16 and 36 km2) and temporal (15 min and hourly) scales.  相似文献   

6.
The accuracy of automatic procedures for locating earthquakes is influenced by several factors such as errors in picking seismic phases, network geometry, modeling errors and velocity model uncertainties. The main purpose of this work is to improve the performances of the automatic procedure employed for the “quasi-real-time” location of seismic events in North Western Italy by developing a procedure based on a waveform similarity analysis and by using only one seismic station.To detect “earthquake families” a cross-correlation technique was applied to a data set of seismic waveforms recorded in the period 1985-2002, in a small test area (1600 km2) located in the South Western Alps (Italy). Normalized cross-correlation matrices were calculated using about 2700 seismic events, selected on the basis of the signal to noise ratio, manually picked and located by using the Hypoellipse code. The waveform similarity analysis, based on the bridging technique, allowed grouping about 65% of the selected events into 80 earthquake families (multiplets) located inside the area considered. For each earthquake family a master event is selected, manually re-picked and re-located by using Hypoellipse code. Having chosen a reference station (STV) on the basis of the completeness of the available data set, an automatic procedure has been developed with the aim of cross-correlating new seismic recordings (automatically picked) to the waveforms of the events belonging to the detected families. If the new event is proved to belong to a family (on the basis of the cross-correlation values), its hypocenter co-ordinates are defined by the location of the master event of the associated family. The performance of the proposed procedure is tested and demonstrated using a data set of 104 selected earthquakes recorded in the period January 2003-June 2004 and located in the test area. The automatic procedure is able to locate, associating events with the multiplets detected by the waveform similarity analysis, about 50% of the test events, almost independently of the accuracy of the automatic phase picker and without the biasing of the network geometry and of the velocity model uncertainties.  相似文献   

7.
Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km2 basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km2 scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km2 (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.  相似文献   

8.
The large green-tide events that occurred in the Yellow Sea in 2008 (3489 km2) and 2009 (4994 km2) are shown to be novel events preceded only once by a much smaller event in 2007 (82 km2). The blooms originated in the coastal area of Jiangsu province and spread north-east towards the Shandong Peninsula. The blooms grew at different rates and mesoscale variability in surface winds explained the differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of blooms in 2008 and 2009. The 2009 bloom was tracked to its origin immediately offshore of extensive intertidal flats between Yancheng and Nantong where recent rapid expansion of Porphyra aquaculture has occurred. We review published hypotheses which have been advanced to explain the occurrence of blooms and in light of our findings, we conclude that the accumulation and disposal of waste Ulva prolifera from Porphyra aquaculture rafts is the most likely cause of the blooms.  相似文献   

9.
This paper presents 19 months of stable isotope (δ2H and δ18O) data to enhance understanding of water and solute transport at two spatial scales (2.3 km2 and 122 km2) in the agricultural Lunan catchment, Scotland. Daily precipitation and stream isotope data, weekly lake and spring isotope data and monthly groundwater isotope data revealed important insights into flow pathways and mixing of water at both scales. In particular, a deeper groundwater flow path significantly contributes to total streamflow (25-50%). Upstream lake isotope dynamics, susceptible to evaporative fractionation, also appeared to have an important influence on the downstream isotope composition. This unique tracer data set facilitated the conceptualization of a lumped catchment-scale flow-tracer model. The incorporation of hydrological, mixing and fractionation processes based on these data improved simulations of the stream δ2H isotope response at the catchment outlet from 0.37 to 0.56 for the Nash-Sutcliffe statistic. The stable isotope data successfully aided model conceptualization and calibration in the quest for a simple water and solute transport model with improved representation of process dynamics.  相似文献   

10.
We calculated statistical average of thermal data to speculate regional thermal structure of the forearc area of the Japanese Islands. The three thermal statistical averages show a difference of a high thermal regime in the western part of forearc inner zone and a low in the Kanto forearc outer zone. The Kanto zone marks 18 K km−1 for mean geothermal gradient, 44 mW m−2 for mean heat flow, while the western inner zone shows 27 K km−1 for mean geothermal gradient, 63 mW m−2 for mean heat flow. The geothermal gradients of the Nobi Plain and the Osaka Plain in the western inner zone are 29 and 36 K km−1, respectively, while the value of the Kanto Plain in the Kanto zone is 21 K km−1. Taking account of the effect of accumulation of sediments, we see the difference in the thermal regime between the plains and conclude that the difference is significant. Heat flux in the crust depends on the volume of granite rich in radioactive elements. There are few granitic rocks in the Kanto zone, while granitic rocks are dominant in the western inner zone. The heat flow of 20 mW m−2 is attributed to the granitic rocks of about 8 km in thickness. There are two oceanic plate subductions of the Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate under the Kanto zone, while only the Philippine Sea plate has been subducting under the western inner zone. The model simulation based on thermal and subduction model shows a heat flow ranging 50-60 mW m−2 in the southwest Japan forarc area and a low value of about 20 mW m−2 in the northeast Japan forearc area. The heat flux from the cooling oceanic lithosphere depends on the age of plate. The Shikoku Basin, a part of the Philippine Sea plate, off the western inner zone is 15-30 Ma, while the Pacific plate off the Kanto zone is 122-132 Ma. Theoretically, heat flux values of 15 and 50 Ma oceanic plates range 60-120 mW m−2 and those of 122-132 Ma could be about 10 mW m−2. If the heat flux contribution from the Philippine Sea plate under the Kanto zone is smaller than the plate under the western inner zone, there could be a thermal regime difference in order of several tens of mW m−2. Conclusively, the cause of the difference of heat flux could be the uneven granitic rocks distribution and/or the difference of heat flux between the two subducting plate.  相似文献   

11.
Seasonal variations in the inorganic carbon system in the Pearl River estuary are examined based on data from five surveys during the spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. Both total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TAlk) values in the freshwater end-members are high in the dry season (>2700 μmol kg−1 for DIC and >2400 μmol kg−1 for TAlk) and substantially lower in the wet season (DIC and TAlk were ∼1000 and 700 μmol kg−1, respectively). Riverine DIC flux and drainage basin weathering rates, however, are significantly higher in the wet season (611×109 mol yr−1 and 13.6×105 mol km−2 yr−1) than in the dry season (237×109 mol yr−1 and 5.3×105 mol km−2 yr−1).  相似文献   

12.
The Mascota volcanic field is located in the Jalisco Block of western Mexico, where the Rivera Plate subducts beneath the North American Plate. It spans an area of ∼ 2000 km2 and contains ∼ 87 small cones and lava flows of minette, absarokite, basic hornblende lamprophyre, basaltic andesite, and andesite. There are no contemporary dacite or rhyolite lavas. New 40Ar/39Ar ages are presented for 35 samples, which are combined with nine dates from the literature to document the eruptive history of this volcanic field. The oldest lavas (2.4 to 0.5 Ma) are found in the southern part of the field area, whereas the youngest lavas (predominantly < 0.5 Ma) are found in the northern portion. On the basis of these ages, field mapping, and the use of ortho aerial photographs and digital elevation models, it is estimated that a combined volume of 6.8 ± 3.1 km3 erupted in the last 2.4 Myr, which leads to an average eruption rate of ∼ 0.003 km3/kyr, and an average volume per eruptive unit of < 0.1 km3. The dominant lava type is andesite (2.1 ± 0.9 km3), followed by absarokite (1.6 ± 0.8 km3), basaltic andesite (1.2 ± 0.5 km3), basic hornblende lamprophyre (1.0 ± 0.4 km3), and minette (0.9 ± 0.5 km3). Thus, the medium-K andesite and basaltic andesite comprise approximately half (49%) of the erupted magma, with twice as much andesite as basaltic andesite, and they occur in close spatial and temporal association with the highly potassic, lamprophyric lavas. There is no time progression to the type of magma erupted. A wide variety of evidence indicate that the high-MgO (8–9 wt.% ) basaltic andesites (52–53% wt.% SiO2) were formed by H2O flux melting of the asthenopheric arc mantle wedge, whereas the mafic minettes and absarokites were formed by partial melting (induced by thermal erosion) of depleted lithospheric mantle containing phlogopite-bearing veins. There is only limited differentiation of the potassic magmas, with none more evolved than 55.4 wt.% SiO2 and 4.4 wt.% MgO. This may be attributable to rapid crystallization of the mantle-derived melts in the deep crust, owing to their low volumes. Thus, the andesites (58–63 wt.% SiO2) are notable for being both the most voluminous and the most evolved of all lava types in the Mascota volcanic field, which is not consistent with their extraction from extensively crystallized (60–70%), low-volume intrusions. Instead, the evidence supports the origin of the andesites by partial melting of amphibolitized, mafic lower crust, driven by the emplacement of the minettes, absarokites, and the high-Mg basaltic andesites.  相似文献   

13.
A swarm of ≈ 9500 hybrid earthquakes preceded the 12–13 July 2003 dome collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Most events had nearly identical waveforms and cross-correlation was applied to measure inter-event periods as well as phase arrival times to determine accurate relative location. Hypocenter depths were shallow (< 3 km), and relative locations were confined to a radius of < 150 m. This small source volume is consistent with the observed waveform similarity. Changes in inter-event periods and energy release, measured from the seismic records, showed that the volcano evolved through several energetic states, possibly linked to cyclic magma movement. Shorter inter-event periods were linked to higher energy release rates and possibly reflect increased pressurization during periods of low extrusion rates.  相似文献   

14.
As marine debris levels continue to grow worldwide, defining sources, composition, and distribution of debris, as well as potential effects, becomes increasingly important. We investigated composition and abundance of man-made, benthic marine debris at 1347 randomly selected stations along the US West Coast during Groundfish Bottom Trawl Surveys in 2007 and 2008. Anthropogenic debris was observed in 469 tows at depths of 55-1280 m. Plastic and metallic debris occurred in the greatest number of hauls followed by fabric and glass. Mean density was 67.1 items km−2 throughout the study area but was significantly higher south of 36°00′N latitude. Mean density significantly increased with depth, ranging from 30 items km−2 in shallow (55-183 m) water to 128 items km−2 in the deepest depth stratum (550-1280 m). Debris densities observed along the US West Coast were comparable to those seen elsewhere and provide a valuable backdrop for future comparisons.  相似文献   

15.
The use of commercial microwave radio networks which are a part of cellular communication infrastructure for mapping of the near-the-ground rainfall is challenging for many reasons: the network geometry in space is irregular, the distribution of links by frequencies and polarizations is inhomogeneous, and measurements of rain-induced attenuation are distorted by quantization. A non-linear tomographic model over a variable density grid is formulated, and its applicability and performance limits are studied by means of a simulated experiment using a model of a real microwave network. It is shown that the proposed technique is capable to accurately measure integrated near-the-ground rainfall amounts over the area of 3200 km2 with a bias smaller than 10%. In urban area, where the density of microwave links is high, the average correlation in space between the simulated model and reconstructed rainfall fields reaches 0.89 over the variable density grid with average cell size of 5.7 km2 and 0.74 when interpolated into the rectangular grid with pixel size 0.775 × 0.775 km2, for the quantization interval of 0.1 dB.  相似文献   

16.
High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km2. Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km2 catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km2. However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.  相似文献   

17.
Intense Mediterranean precipitation can generate devastating flash floods. A better understanding of the spatial structure of intense rainfall is critical to better identify catchments that will produce strong hydrological responses. We focus on two intense Mediterranean rain events of different types that occured in 2002. Radar and rain gauge measurements are combined to have a data set with a high spatial (1 × 1 km2) and temporal (5 min) resolution. Two thresholds are determined using the quantiles of the rain rate values, corresponding to the precipitating system at large and to the intense rain cells. A method based on indicator variograms associated with the thresholds is proposed in order to automatically quantify the spatial structure at each time step during the entire rain events. Therefore, its variability within intense rain events can be investigated. The spatial structure is found to be homogeneous over periods that can be related to the dynamics of the events. Moreover, a decreasing time resolution (i.e., increasing accumulation period) of the rain rate data will stretch the spatial structure because of the advection of rain cells by the wind. These quantitative characteristics of the spatial structure of intense Mediterranean rainfall will be useful to improve our understanding of the dynamics of flash floods.  相似文献   

18.
In late June 2008, just weeks before the opening of the Beijing Olympics, a massive green-tide occurred covering about 600 km2 along the coast of Qingdao, host city for Olympic sailing regatta. Coastal eutrophication was quickly attributed with the blame by the international media and some scientists. However, we explored an alternative hypothesis that the cause of the green-tide was due to the rapid expansion of Porphyra yezoensis aquaculture along the coastline over 180 km away from Qingdao, and oceanographic conditions which favoured rapid growth of the bloom and contributed to transport of the bloom north into the Yellow Sea and then onshore northwest to Qingdao. At its peak offshore, the bloom covered 1200 km2 and affected 40,000 km2. This is the largest green-tide ever reported, the most extensive translocation of a green-tide and the first case of expansive seaweed aquaculture leading to a green-tide. Given similar oceanographic conditions to those that occurred in 2008, these green-tides may re-occur unless mitigation measures such as those proposed here are taken.  相似文献   

19.
The unmodeled effects of lateral heterogeneity are a primary cause of event mislocation in routine methods. Approaches that account for the effect of lateral heterogeneity on travel times are commonly used in specialized studies, but some methods have recently been developed that are suitable for routine location. A variety of changes to the routine procedures have been suggested by other authors. These proposed changes are shown to be compatible to with the use of 3D travel time predictions. 3D empirical travel times are discussed in a routine context. This one step approach, based on direct use of a database of the most reliable previous observations, is shown to be suitable as an additional final step in routine procedures to give a supplementary high accuracy location. The empirical travel time approach is tested on a reference dataset of 155 ground truth events and shown to reduce epicentral mislocation by 45%. The approach is found to be particularly effective at reducing large mislocations. Improvement is demonstrated for every region represented in the dataset but particularly large improvements are shown for events in Europe, USA and Japan.  相似文献   

20.
Georges Bank is one of the world’s most productive marine ecosystems, but the lack of accurate broad-scale sediment maps presently limits habitat assessments and spatial fisheries management. From 1999 to 2009 we surveyed 36,669 km2 of Georges Bank using 2.8 and 0.6 m2 quadrats viewed with live underwater video (video quadrats). The sediment types observed in 61,604 quadrats were used to map and evaluate spatial structure of local surficial sediment coarseness, dominance, heterogeneity, and maximum size characteristics at a 1 km2 spatial resolution. Sand dominated sediment covered 62% of the study area, and there was a logarithmic decline in coverage by larger, coarser and more heterogeneous sediments. Gravel dominated sediments covered 38% of the study area and were more than twice as abundant as previously estimated. A 12,890 km2 swath of gravel dominated seabed stretched from Cape Cod to northeastern Georges Bank consistent with estimates of prehistoric glacial extent. Within the swath there were 14 large gravel outcrops (15–2743 km2) . This work increases the spatial resolution of sediment information available for habitat assessments and spatial fisheries management on Georges Bank by two orders of magnitude. The four sediment characteristics we evaluated support further detailed investigations of the Bank’s benthos, including the influences of surficial sediment characteristics on species and community distributions, and more spatially accurate estimates of seabed roughness. Finally, this work demonstrates the use of video quadrats as an alternative to traditional grab sampling and modern acoustic sampling for continental shelf-scale mapping.  相似文献   

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