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1.
There is a growing research interest on the transdisciplinary measurement of vulnerability to climatic hazards from the perspective of integrated river basin management. However, the incorporation of stakeholders’ participation, local knowledge and locally spatial characteristics into the process of such vulnerability assessment is one of the challenges faced by decision-makers, especially in developing countries. This article proposes a novel methodology for assessing and communicating vulnerability to policymaking at the river basin level through a case study of Tachia River basin in Taiwan. The authors used a multicriteria decision analysis to develop an integrated vulnerability index applied to a participatory geographic information system (GIS) to map vulnerability to climatic hazards. Using a GIS-based spatial statistics technique and multivariate analysis, we test the degree to which vulnerabilities are spatially autocorrelated throughout the river basin, explain why clustering of vulnerable areas occurs in specific locations, and why some regions are particularly vulnerable. Results demonstrate that vulnerable areas are spatially correlated across the river basin. Moreover, exposure, biophysical sensitivity, land uses and adaptive capacity are key factors contributing to the formation of localized ‘hot spots’ of similarly and particularly vulnerable areas. Finally, we discuss how the findings provide direction for more effective approaches to river basin planning and management. 相似文献
2.
Community level adaptation to climate change: The potential role of participatory community risk assessment 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
This paper explores the value of using community risk assessments (CRAs) for climate change adaptation. CRA refers to participatory methods to assess hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities in support of community-based disaster risk reduction, used by many NGOs, community-based organizations, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent. We review the evolution of climate change adaptation and community-based disaster risk reduction, and highlight the challenges of integrating global climate change into a bottom-up and place-based approach. Our analysis of CRAs carried out by various national Red Cross societies shows that CRAs can help address those challenges by fostering community engagement in climate risk reduction, particularly given that many strategies to deal with current climate risks also help to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Climate change can also be explicitly incorporated in CRAs by making better use of CRA tools to assess trends, and by addressing the notion of changing risks. However, a key challenge is to keep CRAs simple enough for wide application. This demands special attention in the modification of CRA tools; in the background materials and trainings for CRA facilitators; and in the guidance for interpretation of CRA outcomes. A second challenge is the application of a limited set of CRA results to guide risk reduction in other communities and to inform national and international adaptation policy. This requires specific attention for sampling and care in scaling up qualitative findings. Finally, stronger linkages are needed between organizations facilitating CRAs and suppliers of climate information, particularly addressing the translation of climate information to the community level. 相似文献
3.
Hurricane preparedness as anticipatory adaptation: A case study of community businesses 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Peter D. Howe 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):711-720
This paper examines adaptation to current storm surge flood risk as one indicator of anticipatory adaptation to climate change impacts. Focusing on community businesses, a web-based survey obtained information on hurricane preparedness and risk perceptions in Sarasota County, Florida. A model of current precautionary action that utilized previously identified business characteristics predictive of business preparedness and post-disaster recovery, a spatial variable indicating storm surge exposure, and items measuring the risk perception and information-seeking behavior of business owners explained a majority of the variance in current levels of preparedness. Use of online risk information sources and the geographic distribution of customers and were the strongest predictors of preparedness. Results indicate that the adaptive capacity of businesses may vary significantly with types of businesses, locations, and socio-cognitive characteristics of business owners. To encourage overall community resilience, risk communication efforts should be targeted based on specific elements that predict business preparedness. 相似文献
4.
Siri Veland Richard Howitt Dale Dominey-Howes Frank Thomalla Donna Houston 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):314-326
The challenge of reaching common understanding of the processes and significance of environmental change amounts to a procedural vulnerability in climate change research that hinders successfully translating knowledge into equitable and effective adaptation policy. This article presents findings from research with Indigenous participants in West Arnhem, Australia, and identifies a procedural vulnerability to climate change research, where perceptions of change and their meaning have their context in Dreaming that supersedes and parallels Western scientific discourses of hazard and risk, but that are marginalised in studies and policies on climate change. This paper argues that moves to adapt remote Indigenous Australian communities to climate change risk missing the mark if they (a) assume that a strong reliance on particular ecosystem configurations makes Indigenous cultures universally vulnerable to environmental change, (b) do not recognise cosmologically embedded risks that are determined by Indigenous capacity to take care of country, and (c) do not recognise colonisation as an ongoing disaster in Indigenous Nations, and therefore treat secondary disasters such as poverty, ill health and welfare dependence as primary contributors to high climate change vulnerability. Procedural vulnerabilities contribute to policy failure, and in Australian contexts pose a risk of conceiving solutions to climate change vulnerability that involve moving people out of the way of environmental risks as they are conceived within colonial traditions, while moving them into the way of risks as conceived through the eyes of remote Indigenous communities. This research joins recent publications that encourage researchers and policy-makers to epistemologically ground proof risk assessments and to listen and engage in conversations that create ways of ‘seeing with both eyes’, while not being blind to the hazards of colonisation. 相似文献
5.
Jun A. Zhang Kristina B. Katsaros Peter G. Black Susanne Lehner Jeffrey R. French William M. Drennan 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,128(2):173-189
Boundary-layer secondary circulations or ‘roll vortices’ can have a significant influence on the turbulent exchange of momentum,
sensible heat and moisture throughout the hurricane boundary layer. In this study, analyses of data from a WP-3D aircraft
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are presented. As part of the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea
Transfer (CBLAST)-hurricane experiment sponsored through the Office of Naval Research and NOAA’s annual hurricane research
program, flights were conducted to investigate energy exchange across the air–sea interface. We present the first in-situ
aircraft-based observations of rolls in the hurricane boundary layer and investigate their influence on energy and momentum
exchange. The rolls detected in Hurricane Isidore (year 2002) have a characteristic wavelength of about 900 m, in good agreement
with analyses of data from a synthetic aperture radar image captured by the Canadian Space Agency’s RADARSAT satellite in
the same storm. Our analyses of the airborne data suggest that roll vortices may be a significant factor modulating the air–sea
momentum exchange. 相似文献
6.
Environmental change is significantly altering hydrological systems worldwide, with substantial impacts for the people who live on floodplains and depend on rivers for their livelihoods and lifeways. Amazonia is a region significantly affected by these changes, particularly more severe flooding. This paper proposes a multi-scalar approach to vulnerability, applying it empirically to the analysis of household vulnerability to the 2011 flood—the second largest flood event along the Ucayali River in 30 years—in terms of exposure, impacts, and responses. Locally relevant indicators for assets, social identity, and social networks at the community and household levels are used to examine their role in shaping flood vulnerability, the interplay of community-level and household-level factors, and differential vulnerability across exposure, impacts, and responses to the same hazard event. We find that the most common impacts of severe flooding in rural Amazonia are on agriculture and that fishing is the dominant response strategy. This study suggests that covariate shocks, like floods, can have distinct idiosyncratic impacts and responses among households. We demonstrate that more integrated approaches to vulnerability analysis offer potential for better understanding differential vulnerabilities within populations as well as for drawing comparisons across hazard events and different settings. 相似文献
7.
Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram 总被引：29，自引：1，他引：29
Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schröter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments. 相似文献
8.
This paper seeks to clarify and refine the assertion that vulnerability exists as both a material, condition and discursive construct. Building off of previous scholarship analyzing the production of, vulnerabilities, we present a conceptual framework that illuminates how material vulnerabilities are translated into political vulnerabilities and ossified in the policy realm. We argue that specifying components of, and relationships between, the material and political aspects of vulnerability will result in a more sophisticated articulation of vulnerability as a recursive process. In order to achieve this level of analysis we propose a spatial–historical analytic approach that blends point-in-time and, empirically driven analysis with robust historical and political economic analysis. We use the largest urban wildfire – in terms of dwellings lost – in California's history to show how the persistent disconnection between material and political forms of vulnerability has, over time, resulted in contradictory landscapes where homes are intentionally placed in landscapes vulnerable to wildfires with reduced fire protection. Spatial historical analysis of the Tunnel Fire reveals how representations of vulnerability oftentimes deviate from lived experiences, engendering responses of exploitation, ignorance, mobilization and resistance. This framework also recognizes how these responses can create new vulnerabilities while also maintaining, deepening and diminishing existing material conditions. Finally, relational analysis illuminates how factors generating vulnerability in fire areas also contribute to and reinforce vulnerabilities within other parts of cities like Oakland, California. 相似文献
9.
James D. Ford Tristan Pearce Frank Duerden Chris Furgal Barry Smit 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):177-191
We identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada's Inuit population adapt to climate change. The policy responses are based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities. A consistent approach was used in each case study where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climatic risks and adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. This conceptualization focuses on the biophysical and human determinants of vulnerability and how they are influenced by processes and conditions operating at multiple spatial-temporal scales. Case studies involved close collaboration with community members and policy makers to identify conditions to which each community is currently vulnerable, characterize the factors that shape vulnerability and how they have changed over time, identify opportunities for adaptation policy, and examine how adaptation can be mainstreamed. Fieldwork, conducted between 2006 and 2009, included 443 semi-structured interviews, 20 focus groups/community workshops, and 65 interviews with policy makers at local, regional, and national levels. Synthesizing findings consistent across the case studies we document significant vulnerabilities, a function of socio-economic stresses and change, continuing and pervasive inequality, and magnitude of climate change. Nevertheless, adaptations are available, feasible, and Inuit have considerable adaptive capacity. Realizing this adaptive capacity and overcoming adaptation barriers requires policy intervention to: (i) support the teaching and transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills, (ii) enhance and review emergency management capability, (iii) ensure the flexibility of resource management regimes, (iv) provide economic support to facilitate adaptation for groups with limited household income, (v) increase research effort to identify short and long term risk factors and adaptive response options, (vi) protect key infrastructure, and (vii) promote awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation among policy makers. 相似文献
10.
本文从雷电致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体方面研究雷电灾害风险评估及区划方法,根据自然灾害系统理论和自然灾害风险评估理论,以福建省三明市为例,利用气象探测资料、地理信息数据、社会经济发展规模、人口密度、土地利用现状以及雷电灾情等数据,采用统计方法、灾情解析、调查问卷确定权重等方法,建立起评价指标与风险评估的定量关系,利用GIS技术将易损性构成要素进行图层叠置,在GIS平台上将所有数据落实到1km×1km的格栅上进行处理,各地的雷电灾害易损性便以1km×1km的单元进行计算量化,最终得到精细化的雷电灾害易损性风险区划图,完成基于GIS图层叠置法的精细化雷电灾害易损度区划模型研究,形成较科学的雷电灾害风险评估及区划技术方法体系,具有很好的应用推广价值,为发展智慧气象,提升防雷减灾公共服务能力提供科学参考,对开展雷电监测、预警、预报以及防雷减灾研究都具有重要意义。 相似文献
11.
Joshua W. Busby Kerry H. Cook Edward K. Vizy Todd G. Smith Mesfin Bekalo 《Climatic change》2014,124(4):717-731
Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan. 相似文献
12.
江西省山洪灾害风险区划初步研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过应用地理信息系统技术编制山洪灾害风险区划的方法,以江西省分县小流域地理底图为基础,对影响山洪灾害形成与发展的暴雨气候、地形坡度、河网分布等因子进行分析和叠加,完成了江西省山洪灾害危险性评价图。以人口密度、GDP、耕地面积作为指标进行易损性分析,并借助GIS工具,将危险性评价图与易损性评价图进行叠加,完成了江西省山洪灾害风险区划研究。区划结果表明:GIS方法能有效地对影响山洪灾害形成与发展的因子数据进行空间分析。该风险区划图可通过对山洪易发区的规划决策而减轻山洪灾害的影响,同时也为当地居民提供了灾害的风险信息。 相似文献
13.
Feeling affected by climate change related disasters has the potential to mobilize belief in climate change, concern about the issue, and support for mitigation policies – even when accounting for the effects of physically living through a disaster. In this study we use a two-wave survey design where respondents in the United States were interviewed before and after Hurricane Florence to better understand who feels affected by such disasters. First, we find that being worried about climate change increases the feeling of being affected by the hurricane among those who regularly discuss climate change. Second, we find that those who are high in perspective taking are more likely to feel affected. However, those who are high in empathic concern, but feel obligated to help victims of disasters, are less likely to feel affected. This suggests that hurricanes may cause a collapse of compassion, where those who are especially sensitive to the suffering of others down-regulate their emotional response to costly disasters. 相似文献
14.
15.
This paper reviews the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight—thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP)—and identify critical climate vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in mean conditions and extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabilities severe enough to halt development of any of the technologies mentioned, although we do find a potential value in exploring options for making PV cells more heat-resilient and for improving the design of cooling systems for CSP. 相似文献
16.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(2):228-237
A mail survey of community water systems (CWS) managers in South Carolina and in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin addresses perceptions of climate vulnerabilities. Managers report the nature of vulnerabilities to 10 weather and climate events. More detailed analysis of droughts, lightning strikes, and floods shows that the most significant concerns reflect financial and technological challenges. Neither water system size nor water source is a consistent indicator of perceived vulnerability. Regarding droughts, the expected severity of impacts relates significantly to experience with prior droughts, expectations of financial problems, and difficulty meeting water quality requirements. In order for vulnerability analysis to better inform adaptation processes, further research is needed into the management challenges resulting from the interaction of diverse climate events, technological systems, and public expectations. 相似文献
17.
Atmospheric turbulence is an important factor in the modelling of wind forces on structures and the losses they produce in
extreme wind events. However, while turbulence in non-hurricane winds has been thoroughly researched, turbulence in tropical
cyclones and hurricanes that affect the Gulf and Atlantic coasts has only recently been the object of systematic study. In
this paper, Florida Coastal Monitoring Program surface wind measurements over the sea surface and open flat terrain are used
to estimate tropical cyclone and hurricane wind spectra and cospectra as well as integral length scales. From the analyses
of wind speeds obtained from five towers in four hurricanes it can be concluded with high confidence that the turbulent energy
at lower frequencies is considerably higher in hurricane than in non-hurricane winds. Estimates of turbulence spectra, cospectra,
and integral turbulence scales presented can be used for the development in experimental facilities of hurricane wind flows
and the forces they induce on structures. 相似文献
18.
AIRS资料质量控制对飓风路径模拟的影响试验 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
对WRFDA模式中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案进行了检验,并以美国Earl飓风为例进行数值试验,研究了质量控制方案对飓风路径模拟的影响。试验结果表明:WRFDA模式中11条质量控制原则对红外高光谱AIRS亮温资料的同化效果影响很大,不论是加入逐条质量控制原则,还是缺席某条质量控制原则,飓风路径的模拟情况都比不上控制试验;而在所有质量控制原则都加入之后,在大部分模拟时段内同化试验中模拟的飓风路径偏差都要小于控制试验,而且同化试验中最大路径偏差也小于控制试验。不同的质量控制原则对观测资料的过滤能力也不一样,其中地表发射率Jacobian分量检测、临边检测、云检测和SST检测等4个质量控制原则剔除卫星资料数量相对较多。本文中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案的对比试验,可以为中国发展红外高光谱卫星系统提供非常有益的借鉴和参考。 相似文献
19.
Social identity, perception and motivation in adaptation to climate risk in the coffee sector of Chiapas, Mexico 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Most investigation into climate adaptation to date has focused on specific technological interventions and socio-economic aspects of adaptive capacity. New perspectives posit that socio-cognitive factors may be as or more important in motivating individuals to take adaptive actions. Recent research indicates that incorporating insights from motivation theory can enhance theorization of adaptive capacity. Yet unexplored, and what we propose here, is the addition of social identity to models of adaptive capacity and adaptation. To apply this conceptual framework, the first author undertook in-depth interviews with a sample of farmers who had participated in broader surveys the previous year to explore their perceptions of their social identity, climate-related information and its sources, and climate risk. These interviews elicited compelling evidence that social identity mediates between risk perception and adaptation through its influence on motivation. Interviews revealed significant links between social identity and perception of information, risk perception and adaptation, of which the most salient were the relative credibility and legitimacy of information sources (related to us vs. them social group differentiation); the role of coffee organizations; and ethnicity and geographic marginalization. Strong in-group identity and perceptions of potentially influential out-groups such as the scientific community appear to particularly influence perception and use of information. These findings have rich policy implications for adaptation management and merit further investigation to identify how, where and why social identity plays a role in climate-risk perception, motivation and adaptation in other geographic areas of vulnerability worldwide. 相似文献
20.
利用2009~2018年内江市5个县（市、区）的闪电定位资料,结合内江市各乡镇、街道为单元的行政区域社会经济资料和基础地理信息资料,采用风险指数法、GIS自然断点法、加权综合评价法等数量化方法,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度、承灾体脆弱性三个方面确定11个评价指标进行综合分析,在GIS技术支持下,开展内江市雷电灾害风险分析和评估,编制内江市雷电灾害风险区划图,从而为全市建设发展、产业布局提供参考。 相似文献