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1.
A novel approach for upscaling land-surface parameters based on inverse stochastic surface-vegetation-atmosphere transfer
(SVAT) modelling is presented. It allows estimation of effective parameters that yield scale invariant outputs e.g. for sensible
and latent heat fluxes and evaporative fraction. The general methodology is used to estimate effective parameters for the
Oregon State University Land-Surface Model, including surface albedo, surface emissivity, roughness length, minimum stomatal
resistance, leaf area index, vapour pressure deficit factor, solar insolation factor and the Clapp–Hornberger soil parameter.
Upscaling laws were developed that map the mean and standard deviation of the distributed land-surface parameters at the subgrid
scale to their corresponding effective parameter at the grid scale. Both linear and bi-parabolic upscaling laws were obtained
for the roughness length. The bi-parabolic upscaling law fitted best for the remaining land-surface parameters, except surface
albedo and emissivity, which were best fitted with linear upscaling laws. 相似文献
2.
Sensitivity of evapotranspiration E and root zone soil moisture content θ to the parameterization of soil water retention Ψ(θ) and soil water conductivity K(Ψ), as well as to the definition of field capacity soil moisture content, is investigated by comparing Psi1-PMSURF and Theta-PMSURF models. The core of PMSURF (Penman–Monteith Surface Fluxes) consists of a 3-layer soil moisture prediction module based on Richard’s equation in combination with the Penman–Monteith concept for estimating turbulent heat fluxes. Psi1- PMSURF and Theta-PMSURF differ only in the parameterization of the moisture availability function Fma. In Psi1,Fma is parameterized by using Ψ(θ) and K(Ψ) hydrophysical functions; in Theta, Fma is parameterized by using hydrophysical parameters: the field capacity θf and wilting point θw soil moisture contents. Both Psi1 and Theta are based on using soil hydrophysical data, that is, there is no conceptual difference between them in the parameterization of E even if in Psi1Fma depends on 12 parameters, while in Theta only on two soil/vegetation parameters. Sensitivity tests are performed using the Cabauw dataset. Three soil datasets are used: the vG (van Genuchten), CH/vG (Clapp and Hornberger/van Genuchten) and CH/PILPS (Clapp and Hornberger/Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes) datasets. The vG dataset is used in van Genuchten’s parameterization, while in Clapp and Hornberger’s the CH/vG and CH/PILPS datasets are used. It is found that the consistency of soil hydrophysical data in the simulation of transpiration is quite important. The annual sum of E obtained by Psi1EPsi1, differs from the annual sum of E obtained by Theta, ETheta, because of the inconsistency between the fitting parameters of Ψ(θ) and K(Ψ) and the θf, and not because of the differencies in the parameterization of Fma. Further, θf can be estimated not only on the basis of using soil hydrophysical functions (the θf so obtained is θSoilf) but also on the basis of analysing the transpiration process (the θfso obtained is θtrf). θtrf values estimated from the condition ETheta ≈ EPsi1 are in acceptable accordance with the θSoilf values proposed by Wösten and co-workers. The results are useful in optimizing the parameterization of transpiration in land-surface schemes. 相似文献
3.
Incorporating organic soil into a global climate model 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Organic matter significantly alters a soil’s thermal and hydraulic properties but is not typically included in land-surface
schemes used in global climate models. This omission has consequences for ground thermal and moisture regimes, particularly
in the high-latitudes where soil carbon content is generally high. Global soil carbon data is used to build a geographically
distributed, profiled soil carbon density dataset for the Community Land Model (CLM). CLM parameterizations for soil thermal
and hydraulic properties are modified to accommodate both mineral and organic soil matter. Offline simulations including organic
soil are characterized by cooler annual mean soil temperatures (up to ∼2.5°C cooler for regions of high soil carbon content).
Cooling is strong in summer due to modulation of early and mid-summer soil heat flux. Winter temperatures are slightly warmer
as organic soils do not cool as efficiently during fall and winter. High porosity and hydraulic conductivity of organic soil
leads to a wetter soil column but with comparatively low surface layer saturation levels and correspondingly low soil evaporation.
When CLM is coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model, the reduced latent heat flux drives deeper boundary layers, associated
reductions in low cloud fraction, and warmer summer air temperatures in the Arctic. Lastly, the insulative properties of organic
soil reduce interannual soil temperature variability, but only marginally. This result suggests that, although the mean soil
temperature cooling will delay the simulated date at which frozen soil begins to thaw, organic matter may provide only limited
insulation from surface warming. 相似文献
4.
AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT——PART Ⅰ:LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS“OFF-LINE”TESTS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSES 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on the existing land-surface schemes and models,an improved Land-surface Process Model(LPM-ZD)has been developed.It has the following major characteristics:(1)The combination of physical equations and empirical analytical formulae are used to construct the governing equations of soil temperature and moisture.Higher resolution of model level and physical equations are adopted for the upper soil layers,and for the lower soil layers,lower resolution of model level is adopted and empirical analytical formulae are used.(2)In land surface hydrological process,the sub-grid distribution of rainfall and its effects are taken into account.(3)A simple snow cover submodel has been used,which includes effects of snow cover on soil thermodynamics and hydrology,as well as albedo.By use of this model and three groups of point observation data,a series of "off-line" tests have been carried out.The simulation results indicate that land-surface process model has good performance and can well simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of land surface processes for many kinds of land surface covers(forest,grass,crops and desert) in different climate zone.The results simulated by the model are consistent with the observations.Later,by use of one group of observation data and the model,a series of sensitivity experiments have been done.It is shown that the model is much sensitive to some parameters,such as initial soil moisture,vegetation physical parameters as well as the proportion of the grid covered with rain.Therefore it is much important for land-surface process model to define these parameters as accurately as possible. 相似文献
5.
The impact of climate change on the hydrology of continental surfaces is critical for human activities but the response of
the surface to this perturbation may also affect the sensitivity of the climate. This complex feedback is simulated in general
circulation models (GCMs) used for climate change predictions by their land-surface schemes. The present study attempts to
quantify the uncertainty associated with these schemes and what impact it has on our confidence in the simulated climate anomalies.
Four GCMs, each coupled to two different land-surface schemes, are used to explore the spectrum of uncertainties. It is shown
that, in this sample, surface processes have a significant contribution to our ability to predict surface temperature changes
and perturbations of the hydrological cycle in an environment with doubled greenhouse gas concentration. The results reveal
that the uncertainty introduced by land-surface processes in the simulated climate is different from its impact on the sensitivity
of GCMs to climate change, indeed an alteration of the surface parametrization with little impact on model climate can affect
sensitivity significantly. This result leads us to believe that the validation of land-surface schemes should not be limited
to the current climate but should also cover their sensitivity to variations in climatic forcing.
Received: 24 June 1999 / Accepted: 20 April 2000 相似文献
6.
In this study the influence of land-surface parameters on latent heat fluxes simulated with the numerical weather prediction model Lokalmodell (LM) of the German Meteorological Service is investigated. The area of interest is the LITFASS area during the LITFASS-2003 campaign. Based on simulations with varying soil and vegetation properties, we confirm that simulated latent heat fluxes strongly depend on soil moisture and leaf area index. Both parameters are difficult to obtain from in situ measurements with sufficient spatial resolution over heterogeneous land surfaces. Therefore, a procedure is proposed to determine area average values of soil moisture from time domain reflectometer measurements performed at a limited number of sites. The area averages cover the 7 × 7 km2 grid cells of the LM around Lindenberg (south-east of Berlin). Furthermore, satellite inferred plant parameters from NOAA–AVHRR are used to initialise model runs; the derived vegetation parameters show notable differences with those in the standard input of LM. The latent heat fluxes from the LM are compared with the aggregated eddy-covariance-measurements, and while the operational LM shows a strong overestimation of latent heat fluxes, it is demonstrated that the application of land-surface parameters derived from measurements can significantly reduce the deviation between the simulated and measured latent heat fluxes. 相似文献
7.
Using data from the intensive observation period (May–June 2000) of the NWC-ALIEX (The Field Experiment on Interaction between Land and Atmosphere in Arid Region of North-west China), the characteristics and mechanisms of some key land-surface process over Gobi in a typical arid region of north-west China are analyzed and several parameters of land-surface processes are calculated. The weighted mean of the surface albedo over a typical arid region of the Dunhuang Gobi is calculated using the relative reflection as a weighting factor, and its value is 0.255 ± 0.021. After removing the influence of precipitation, the mean soil heat capacity over a typical arid region of the Dunhuang Gobi is 1.12 × 106 J m-3 K-1,which is smaller than that observed in the Heihe (China) River basin Field Experiment (HEIFE). The mean soil heat diffusivity and conductivity are about half of those observed in HEIFE. 相似文献
8.
土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟中的参数敏感性分析和优化 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
使用一种复杂洗牌算法 (SCE-UA, Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm) 对Noah陆面模式中的参数进行敏感性分析和优化,其中水文参数采取直接优化和优化土壤成份的形式,侧重于研究两种水文参数给出方法对土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟的敏感性。结果表明:将土壤湿度和土壤温度作为判据,模式中水文参数敏感性最高,水文参数对土壤湿度的敏感性要高于对土壤温度的敏感性。表层土壤湿度作为判据对土壤水文参数优化后,可以改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟,加入深层土壤湿度同时作为判据后,优化使土壤温度的模拟变差。当土壤成份作为优化的参数,表层和深层土壤湿度作为判据,优化能够同时改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟。单独使用土壤温度作为判据不能达到优化水文参数的目的。将土壤成份作为优化的参数后,土壤湿度和土壤温度的多判据优化效果最好,且减少不敏感参数的个数后对优化结果的影响总体不大。基于以上结果,将土壤成份作为优化水文参数的方法能够更好的考虑不同水文参数之间的约束关系,优化后的水文参数具有很好的一致性,优化效果较直接优化水文参数更好。 相似文献
9.
The World Climate Research Programme Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes (PILPS) is an on-going
international intercomparison of land surface schemes designed for use in climate modelling and weather prediction. The five
phases of PILPS are described in this work with an indication of the status of each. Phase 0 documented the status of land
surface schemes. Phase 1 performed a series of off-line tests using synthetic atmospheric forcing. Phase 2 exploited observational
data in off-line tests. Phase 3 was comprised of coupled tests within the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)
project and finally Phase 4 will consider the performance of land-surface schemes when coupled to their host climate models
in fully coupled evaluations. Results from Phase 1 indicate that there is a wide range among models. Phase 2 indicates that
while some models are consistent with observations, there remains a large range among models and that many diverge greatly
from observations. PILPS phases 2(a) and 2(b) results suggest that individual land-surface schemes capture specific aspects
of the complex system with reasonable accuracy but no one scheme captures the whole system satisfactorily and consistently.
In Phase 3 the intercomparison of PILPS schemes as a component of global atmospheric circulation models is being conducted
jointly with the AMIP as diagnostic subproject number 12. Preliminary results suggest that results differ by about the same
range as in the offline experiments in Phases 1 and 2. Phase 4 will couple selected land-surface schemes to the USA's National
Center for Atmospheric Research climate system model and to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology limited area model.
Received: 24 October 1995 / Accepted: 28 May 1996 相似文献
10.
11.
The new MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle (MOCAGE) three-dimensional multiscale chemistry and transport model (CTM) has been applied to study heavy pollution episodes observed during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The model considers the troposphere and lower stratosphere, and allows the possibility of zooming from the planetary scale down to the regional scale over limited area subdomains. Like this, it generates its own time-dependent chemical boundary conditions in the vertical and in the horizontal. This paper focuses on the evaluation and quantification of uncertainties related to chemical and transport modelling during two intensive observing periods, IOP2 and IOP4 (June 20–26 and July 10–14, 2001, respectively). Simulations are compared to the database of four-dimensional observations, which includes ground-based sites and aircraft measurements, radiosoundings, and quasi-continuous measurements of ozone by LIDARs. Thereby, the observed and modelled day-to-day variabilities in air composition both at the surface and in the vertical have been assessed. Then, three sensitivity studies are conducted concerning boundary conditions, accuracy of the emission dataset, and representation of chemistry. Firstly, to go further in the analysis of chemical boundary conditions, results from the standard grid nesting set-up and altered configurations, relying on climatologies, are compared. Along with other recent studies, this work advocates the systematic coupling of limited-area models with global CTMs, even for regional air quality studies or forecasts. Next, we evaluate the benefits of using the detailed high-resolution emissions inventory of ESCOMPTE: improvements are noticeable both on ozone reactivity and on the concentrations of various species of the ozone photochemical cycle especially primary ones. Finally, we provide some insights on the comparison of two simulations differing only by the parameterisation of chemistry and using two state-of-the-art chemical schemes for regional photochemical modelling. Regional air quality modelling is found to be highly sensitive to the emission inventory dataset and also to the vertical and horizontal boundary conditions and detailed representation of chemistry. Interestingly enough, they infer the same range of errors compared to total model errors. 相似文献
12.
干旱区天气、气候数值模拟的研究进展 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
干旱区的气候模拟有着很强特殊性。气候模式是研究和探讨干旱区形成物理机制的有效手段和工具。介绍了近年来国内外干旱气候数值模拟和试验的研究与进展．总结和评述了陆面过程中地表反照率、土壤湿度、植被状况的参数化和对气候的影响．讨论和阐述陆面过程在气候模拟中的重要性。对干旱区的气候和天气灾害的数值模式模拟研究作了一些评述，并对干旱区数值模拟的有关问题进行了讨论和展望。指出干旱区陆面过程的深入研究和干旱区陆面参数的标定，是改进干旱区气候模拟的重要途径。 相似文献
13.
Brian P. Reen David R. Stauffer Kenneth J. Davis Ankur R. Desai 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,120(2):275-314
The importance of soil moisture inputs and improved model physics in the prediction of the daytime boundary-layer structure during the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997 (SGP97) is investigated using the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model MM5. This is Part II of a two-part study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed boundary-layer structure. Part I focuses on observations and utilizes a simple model while Part II uses observations and MM5 modelling. Soil moisture inputs tested include a lookup table based on soil type and season, output from an offline land-surface model (LSM) forced by atmospheric observations, and high-resolution ( 800 m) airborne microwave remotely sensed data. Model physics improvements are investigated by comparing an LSM directly coupled with the MM5 to a simpler force-restore method at the surface. The scale of land surface heterogeneities is compared to the scale of their effects on boundary-layer structure.The use of more detailed soil moisture fields allowed the MM5 to better represent the large-scale (hundreds of km) and small-scale (tens of km) horizontal gradients in surface-layer weather and, to a lesser degree, the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, which was evaluated against observations measured by differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The benefits of coupling an LSM to the MM5 were not readily evident in this summertime case, with the model having particular difficulty simulating the timing of maximum surface fluxes while underestimating the depth of the mixed layer. 相似文献
14.
William P. Kustas Martha C. Anderson John M. Norman Fuqin Li 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,122(1):167-187
In many land-surface models using bulk transfer (one-source) approaches, the application of radiometric surface temperature
observations in energy flux computations has given mixed results. This is due in part to the non-unique relationship between
the so-called aerodynamic temperature, which relates to the efficiency of heat exchange between the land surface and overlying
atmosphere, and a surface temperature measurement from a thermal-infrared radiometer, which largely corresponds to a weighted
soil and canopy temperature as a function of radiometer viewing angle. A number of studies over the past several years using
multi-source canopy models and/or experimental data have developed simplified methods to accommodate radiometric–aerodynamic
temperature differences in one-source approaches. A recent investigation related the variability in the radiometric–aerodynamic
relation to solar radiation using experimental data from a variety of landscapes, while another used a multi-source canopy
model combined with measurements over a wide range in vegetation density to derive a relationship based on leaf area index.
In this study, simulations by a detailed multi-source soil–plant–environment model, Cupid, which considers both radiative
and turbulent exchanges across the soil–canopy–air interface, are used to explore the radiometric–aerodynamic temperature
relations for a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem under a range of leaf area/canopy cover, soil moisture and meteorological conditions.
The simulated radiometric-aerodynamic temperatures indicate that, while solar radiation and leaf area both strongly affect
the magnitude of this temperature difference, the relationships are non-unique, having significant variability depending on
local conditions. These simulations also show that soil–canopy temperature differences are highly correlated with variations
in the radiometric–aerodynamic temperature differences, with the slope being primarily a function of leaf area. This result
suggests that two-source schemes with reliable estimates of component soil and canopy temperatures and associated resistances
may be better able to accommodate variability in the radiometric–aerodynamic relation for a wider range in vegetated canopy
cover conditions than is possible with one-source schemes. However, comparisons of sensible heat flux estimates with Cupid
using a simplified two-source model and a one-source model accommodating variability in the radiometric-aerodynamic relation
based on vegetation density gave similar scatter. On the other hand, with experimental data from the shrubland site, the two-source
model generally outperformed the one-source scheme. Clearly, vegetation density/leaf area has a major effect on the radiometric–aerodynamic
temperature relation and must be considered in either one-source or two-source formulations. Hence these adjusted one-source
models require similar inputs as in two-source approaches, but provide as output only bulk heat fluxes; this is not as useful
for monitoring vegetation conditions. 相似文献
15.
Y. Shao M. Sogalla M. Kerschgens W. Brücher 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(3-4):157-181
Summary
In this paper, we examine the effects of land-surface heterogeneity on the calculation of surface-energy and momentum fluxes
in a meso-scale atmospheric model. A series of numerical experiments has been carried out with a combination of different
resolutions for the atmosphere and the land surface, which allows an examination of the aggregation and dynamic effects associated
with land-surface heterogeneity. The numerical results show that for a given atmospheric model resolution, increased land-surface
resolution leads to better estimates of surface-energy and momentum fluxes, and for a given land-surface resolution, increased
atmospheric model resolution also improves the estimates of these fluxes. This latter result contradicts the prevailing view
that subgrid variation in atmospheric data plays only a minor role in estimating the fluxes. It is also shown that subgrid
land-surface heterogeneity leads to increased turbulent fluctuations. The responsible mechanisms of this effect are both the
subgrid variation of surface-energy fluxes and their impact upon the development of convective cells. It is suggested that
subgrid atmospheric motions induced by surface heterogeneity may be an important factor which needs to be considered in subgrid
closure schemes for atmospheric models.
Received August 28, 2000/Revised June 1, 2001 相似文献
16.
A. A. M. Holtslag G. J. Steeneveld B. J. H. van de Wiel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(2):361-376
At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results
is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS).
In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme,
in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant
parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer
models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic
winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than
two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface
scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat
fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures
are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As
such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude
of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role. 相似文献
17.
Uncertainties in simulating the seasonal mean atmospheric water cycle in Equatorial East Africa are quantified using 58 one-year-long experiments performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Tested parameters include physical parameterizations of atmospheric convection, cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer, land-surface model and radiation schemes, as well as land-use categories (USGS vs. MODIS), lateral forcings (ERA-Interim and ERA40 reanalyses), and domain geometry (size and vertical resolution). Results show that (1) uncertainties, defined as the differences between the experiments, are larger than the biases; (2) the parameters exerting the largest influence on simulated rainfall are, in order of decreasing importance, the shortwave radiation scheme, the land-surface model, the domain size, followed by convective schemes and land-use categories; (3) cloud microphysics, lateral forcing reanalysis, the number of vertical levels and planetary boundary layer schemes appear to be of lesser importance at the seasonal scale. Though persisting biases (consisting of conditions that are too wet over the Indian Ocean and the Congo Basin and too dry over eastern Kenya) prevail in most experiments, several configurations simulate the regional climate with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
18.
两次暴雨过程模拟对陆面参数化方案的敏感性研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选取发生在江西和福建境内的两次暴雨个例,利用NCEP再分析资料在对暴雨发生前、后的环境场和物理量场进行诊断和对比分析的基础上,采用中尺度模式WRF V3.3,通过数值模拟探讨了陆面过程对两次暴雨过程的可能影响及其相关的物理过程。结果表明,2012年5月12日江西大暴雨主要受大尺度环流和中尺度天气系统影响,具有范围大、持续时间长等特点,属于大尺度降水为主的暴雨;而2011年8月23日福建暴雨发生在副热带高压控制下的午后,局地下垫面强烈的感热和潜热通量使低层大气不稳定性增强,触发了此次对流性降水为主的暴雨。通过资料诊断分析,可以判断陆面过程对福建暴雨个例的影响程度明显强于江西暴雨个例。通过关闭地表通量试验发现,陆面过程对暴雨模拟十分重要,尤其是对于该个例中对流性降水的发生起到关键性的作用。通过陆面参数化方案的敏感性试验发现,两次暴雨过程对陆面参数化方案均较为敏感。江西暴雨对陆面过程的敏感性主要体现在对流降水的模拟上,而福建暴雨则体现在大尺度降水的模拟方面,即福建暴雨对陆面参数化方案的敏感性强于江西暴雨。敏感性产生机制与降水类型关系紧密,大尺度降水对陆面过程的敏感性主要来源于不同参数化模拟的中高空对流系统的差异,而对流降水的敏感性则与不同参数化模拟的地表通量的差异有关。通过陆面参数的扰动试验进一步发现,相比于地表粗糙度和最小叶孔阻抗,土壤孔隙度和地表反照率则是影响对流降水对陆面过程敏感的关键因子,这在本质上与地表通量是否受到扰动有关。地表通量较风场而言,受扰动引起变化的空间范围广、时间响应快,变化具有明显规律性。所得结果可为深入理解陆面过程影响暴雨等天气过程和改进数值模式对暴雨的模拟能力提供一定的参考。 相似文献
19.
A simple methane model is presented in which lifetime changes are expressed as a function of CH4 concentration and emissions of NOx CO and NMHCs. The model parameters define the relative sensitivities of lifetime to these determining factors. The parameterized model is fitted to results from five more complex atmospheric chemistry models and to 1990 IPCC concentration projections. The IPCC data and four of the five models are well fitted, implying that the models have similar relative sensitivities. However, overall sensitivities of lifetime to changes in atmospheric composition vary widely from model to model. The parameterized model is used to estimate the history of past methane emissions, lifetime changes and OH variations, with estimates of uncertainties. The pre-industrial lifetime is estimated to be 15–34% lower than today. This implies that 23–55% of past concentration changes are due to lifetime changes. Pre-industrial emissions are found to be much higher (220–330 TgCH4/y) than the best estimate of present natural emissions (155 TgCH4/y). The change in emissions since pre-industrial times is estimated to lie in the range 160–260 TgCH4/y, compared with the current best guess for anthropogenic emissions of 360 TgCH4/y. These results imply either that current estimates of anthropogenic emissions are too high and/or that there have been large changes in natural emissions. 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios are used to give projections of future concentration and lifetime changes, together with their uncertainties. For any given emissions scenario, these uncertainties are large. In terms of future radiative forcing and global-mean temperature changes over 1990–2100 they correspond to uncertainties of at least ±0.2 Wm–2 and ± 0.1° C, respectively. 相似文献