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1.
Rivers display temporal dependence in suspended sediment–water discharge relationships. Although most work has focused on multi‐decadal trends, river sediment behavior often displays sub‐decadal scale fluctuations that have received little attention. The objectives of this study were to identify inter‐annual to decadal scale fluctuations in the suspended sediment–discharge relationship of a dry‐summer subtropical river, infer the mechanisms behind these fluctuations, and examine the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation climate cycles. The Salinas River (California) is a moderate sized (11 000 km2), coastal dry‐summer subtropical catchment with a mean discharge (Qmean) of 11.6 m3 s?1. This watershed is located at the northern most extent of the Pacific coastal North America region that experiences increased storm frequency during El Niño years. Event to inter‐annual scale suspended sediment behavior in this system was known to be influenced by antecedent hydrologic conditions, whereby previous hydrologic activity regulates the suspended sediment concentration–water discharge relationship. Fine and sand suspended sediment in the lower Salinas River exhibited persistent, decadal scale periods of positive and negative discharge corrected concentrations. The decadal scale variability in suspended sediment behavior was influenced by inter‐annual to decadal scale fluctuations in hydrologic characteristics, including: elapsed time since small (~0.1 × Qmean), and moderate (~10 × Qmean) threshold discharge values, the number of preceding days that low/no flow occurred, and annual water yield. El Niño climatic activity was found to have little effect on decadal‐scale fluctuations in the fine suspended sediment–discharge relationship due to low or no effect on the frequency of moderate to low discharge magnitudes, annual precipitation, and water yield. However, sand concentrations generally increased in El Niño years due to the increased frequency of moderate to high magnitude discharge events, which generally increase sand supply. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (ΔC) and severe (ΔS) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under ΔS. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (ΔS), fall (ΔS) and summer (ΔC) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.  相似文献   

3.
Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption of a constant relation between discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) over time. However, temporal variation in the sediment supply of a watershed results in shifts in this relation by increasing variability and by introducing nonlinearities in the form of hysteresis or a path‐dependent relation. In this study, we used a mixed‐effects linear model to estimate an average SSC–Q relation for different periods of time within the hydrologic cycle while accounting for seasonality and hysteresis. We tested the performance of the mixed‐effects model against the standard rating curve, represented by a generalized least squares regression, by comparing observed and predicted sediment loads for a test case on the Chilliwack River, British Columbia, Canada. In our analyses, the mixed‐effects model reflected more accurate patterns of interpolated SSC from Q data than the rating curve, especially for the low‐flow summer months when the SSC–Q relation is less clear. Akaike information criterion scores were lower for the mixed‐effects model than for the standard model, and the mixed‐effects model explained nearly twice as much variance as the standard model (52% vs 27%). The improved performance was achieved by accounting for variability in the SSC–Q relation within each month and across years for the same month using fixed and random effects, respectively, a characteristic disregarded in the sediment rating curve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

A hydrological drought magnitude (M T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L T ), as well as the mean drought duration (Lm ), in a characteristic drought length (Lc ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569.  相似文献   

5.
Headwater streams are critical components of drainage systems, directly connecting terrestrial and downstream aquatic ecosystems. The amount of water in a stream can alter hydrologic connectivity between the stream and surrounding landscape and is ultimately an important driver of what constituents headwater streams transport. There is a shortage of studies that explore concentration–discharge (C‐Q) relationships in headwater systems, especially forested watersheds, where the hydrological and ecological processes that control the processing and export of solutes can be directly investigated. We sought to identify the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of stream chemistry at three points along a forested headwater stream in Northern Michigan and utilize C‐Q relationships to explore transport dynamics and potential sources of solutes in the stream. Along the stream, surface flow was seasonal in the main stem, and perennial flow was spatially discontinuous for all but the lowest reaches. Spring snowmelt was the dominant hydrological event in the year with peak flows an order of magnitude larger at the mouth and upper reaches than annual mean discharge. All three C‐Q shapes (positive, negative, and flat) were observed at all locations along the stream, with a higher proportion of the analytes showing significant relationships at the mouth than at the mid or upper flumes. At the mouth, positive (flushing) C‐Q shapes were observed for dissolved organic carbon and total suspended solids, whereas negative (dilution) C‐Q shapes were observed for most cations (Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+) and biologically cycled anions (NO3?, PO43?, SO42?). Most analytes displayed significant C‐Q relationships at the mouth, indicating that discharge is a significant driving factor controlling stream chemistry. However, the importance of discharge appeared to decrease moving upstream to the headwaters where more localized or temporally dynamic factors may become more important controls on stream solute patterns.  相似文献   

6.
The increase in low flows (winter discharge and minimum monthly discharge), caused primarily by permafrost degradation, is common in high‐latitude permafrost regions, whereas the dynamics of low flows in high‐altitude permafrost regions remain largely unknown. Long‐term discharge data from 28 unregulated catchments in western China were analysed, and the findings showed that winter discharge/minimum monthly discharge significantly increased (p ≤ 0.1) in 82/82%, 55/64%, and 0/0% of the catchments in the higher‐latitude mountain permafrost regions (Tienshan Mountains), mid‐latitude mountain permafrost regions (Qilian Mountains), and mid‐ to low‐latitude plateau permafrost regions (the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers), respectively. The differences in permafrost type and the distribution of permafrost and alpine cold desert (which is similar to tundra) were found to be the main causes for the different responses in the low flows. The rate of change of low flows (winter discharge and minimum monthly discharge) was negatively and linearly correlated with permafrost coverage when coverage was less than 40% of the catchment area, whereas the low flows changed only slightly when the permafrost coverage exceeded 40%. A significant thickening of the active layer increased the low flows in the lower permafrost‐covered catchments, which are dominated by warm permafrost. However, in the higher permafrost‐covered catchments with cold permafrost and a cold climate, only an increase in permafrost temperature (without a notable thickening of the active layer) occurred, resulting in non‐significant changes in low flows.  相似文献   

7.
Since 1960, geomorphic effectiveness has been quantified by analytically combining measures of the frequency and the magnitude of geomorphic processes, most often for the case of sediment yield in rivers via the calculation of effective discharge, Qeff. Here we leverage the Qeff analysis approach to develop an alternative metric, the functional‐equivalent discharge Qfed, which is the discharge that will reproduce the magnitude of the sediment load generated by the full hydrologic distribution. Qfed is intended to be a more representative metric of hydrologic variability than Qeff: whereas Qeff provides a measure of the effectiveness of individual flow rates, Qfed incorporates a measure of the average effectiveness of the entire flow distribution. We develop an analytical approximation of Qfed based on relatively few parameters, apply the approach to a set of suspended sediment load data and describe how Qfed varies broadly with sediment and hydrologic conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Low‐flow characteristics can be estimated by multiple linear regressions or the index‐streamgage approach. The latter transfers streamflow information from a hydrologically similar, continuously gaged basin (‘index streamgage’) to one with a very limited streamflow record, but often results in biased estimates. The application of the index‐streamgage approach can be generalized into three steps: (1) selection of streamflow information of interest, (2) definition of hydrologic similarity and selection of index streamgage, and (3) application of an information‐transfer approach. Here, we explore the effects of (1) the range of streamflow values, (2) the areal density of streamgages, and (3) index‐streamgage selection criteria on the bias of three information‐transfer approaches on estimates of the 7‐day, 10‐year minimum streamflow (Q7, 10). The three information‐transfer approaches considered are maintenance of variance extension, base‐flow correlation, and ratio of measured to concurrent gaged streamflow (Q‐ratio invariance). Our results for 1120 streamgages throughout the United States suggest that only a small portion of the total bias in estimated streamflow values is explained by the areal density of the streamgages and the hydrologic similarity between the two basins. However, restricting the range of streamflow values used in the index‐streamgage approach reduces the bias of estimated Q7, 10 values substantially. Importantly, estimated Q7, 10 values are heavily biased when the observed Q7, 10 values are near zero. Results of the analysis also showed that Q7, 10 estimates from two of the three index‐streamgage approaches have lower root‐mean‐square error values than estimates derived from multiple regressions for the large regions considered in this study. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km2 watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long‐term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based on short‐term historical Ts observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (Ta) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in Ts. Models were developed for 61 sites in the southeastern USA using ≥18 months of observations and were validated at sites with longer periods of record. The Ts models were then used to estimate temporal changes in Ts at each site using both historical estimates and future Ta projections. Results suggested that the linear regression models adequately explained the variability in Ts across sites, and the relationships between Ts and Ta remained consistent over 37 years. We estimated that most sites had increases in historical annual mean Ts between 1961 and 2010 (mean of +0.11 °C decade?1). All 61 sites were projected to experience increases in Ts from 2011 to 2060 under the three climate projections evaluated (mean of +0.41 °C decade?1). Several of the sites with the largest historical and future Ts changes were located in ecoregions home to temperature‐sensitive fish species. This methodology can be used by resource managers for rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Stream temperature (Ts) is a key water quality parameter that controls several biological, ecological, and chemical processes in aquatic systems. In forested headwaters, exchanges of energy across air-water-streambed interfaces may influence Ts regimes, especially during storm events as the sources of runoff change over space and time. Analysis of the hysteretic behaviour of Ts during storm events may provide insights into rainfall-runoff responses, but such relationships have not been thoroughly investigated. As such, our objectives were to (a) quantify the variability of stream temperature hysteresis across seasons in different sub-regions and (b) investigate the relationship between the hysteretic response and catchment characteristics. Ts hysteresis during storm events was assessed based on the hysteresis index (HI), which describes the directionality of hysteresis loops, and the temperature response index (TRI), which indicates whether Ts increased or decreased during a storm event. We analysed Ts data from 10 forested headwater reaches in two sub-regions (McGarvey and West Fork Tectah) in Northern California. We also performed a clustering analysis to examine the relationship amongst HI, TRI, topographic metrics, and meteorological characteristics of the study areas. Overall, the hysteretic behaviour of Ts varied across seasons—the greatest HI occurred during spring and summer. Interestingly, in the McGarvey streams the variability in Ts hysteresis co-varied strongly with topographic metrics (i.e., upslope accumulative area, average channel slope, topographic wetness index). Comparatively, in West Fork Tectah the variability of Ts hysteresis co-varied most strongly with meteorological metrics (i.e., antecedent rainfall events, solar radiation, and air temperature). Variables such as the gradient between stream and air temperatures, slope, and wetted width were significant for both sub-regional hysteretic patterns. We posit that the drivers of Ts response during storms are likely dependent on catchment physiographic characteristics. Our study also illustrated the potential utility of stream temperature as a tracer for improving the understanding of hydrologic connectivity and shifts in the dominant runoff contributions to streamflow during storm events.  相似文献   

12.
In most lakes, phosphorus (P) is the nutrient controlling the trophic state. Thus, for effective control of eutrophication, the uncertainty in P-loading should be encoded as a probability density function (pdf). Specifically, the pdf of P-loading Y from non-point agricultural sources is sought by means of an event-based stochastic model.P-loading events are triggered by precipitation events (X1, X2, T), in which X1 is the rainfall amount, X2 the duration, and T the interarrival time between events. (X1, X2) are dependent random variables, while T is assumed to be exponentially distributed. The precipitation event causes runoff, which carries dissolved P into the lake with a concentration C1 and sediment yield, Z, which carries fixed or sorbed P into the lake in a fraction C2 of Z. Seasonal loading of P is calculated by adding random numbers of random variables. The model accounts separately for dissolved P and sorbed P. Explicit expressions are given for the mean and variance of each type of P-loadings. The case study of a sub-watershed of Lake Balaton, Hungary, is used to illustrate the methodology. Precipitation data, empirical rainfall-runoff-sediment yield relationships and a small number of observations of events are used to calibrate the model and estimate the means and variances of loading per event and per season. Then a simulation method is used to estimate complete pdf of these random variables. Use of the model for alternative methods of controlling P-loading is briefly discussed, as well as the economics of control.  相似文献   

13.
The western U.S. is experiencing shifts in recharge due to climate change, and it is currently unclear how hydrologic shifts will impact geochemical weathering and stream concentration–discharge (C–Q) patterns. Hydrologists often use C–Q analyses to assess feedbacks between stream discharge and geochemistry, given abundant stream discharge and chemistry data. Chemostasis is commonly observed, indicating that geochemical controls, rather than changes in discharge, are shaping stream C–Q patterns. However, few C–Q studies investigate how geochemical reactions evolve along groundwater flowpaths before groundwater contributes to streamflow, resulting in potential omission of important C–Q controls such as coupled mineral dissolution and clay precipitation and subsequent cation exchange. Here, we use field observations—including groundwater age, stream discharge, and stream and groundwater chemistry—to analyse C–Q relations in the Manitou Experimental Forest in the Colorado Front Range, USA, a site where chemostasis is observed. We combine field data with laboratory analyses of whole rock and clay x-ray diffraction and soil cation-extraction experiments to investigate the role that clays play in influencing stream chemistry. We use Geochemist's Workbench to identify geochemical reactions driving stream chemistry and subsequently suggest how climate change will impact stream C–Q trends. We show that as groundwater age increases, C–Q slope and stream solute response are not impacted. Instead, primary mineral dissolution and subsequent clay precipitation drive strong chemostasis for silica and aluminium and enable cation exchange that buffers calcium and magnesium concentrations, leading to weak chemostatic behaviour for divalent cations. The influence of clays on stream C–Q highlights the importance of delineating geochemical controls along flowpaths, as upgradient mineral dissolution and clay precipitation enable downgradient cation exchange. Our results suggest that geochemical reactions will not be impacted by future decreasing flows, and thus where chemostasis currently exists, it will continue to persist despite changes in recharge.  相似文献   

14.
Comparisons between snow water equivalent (SWE) and river discharge estimates are important in evaluating the SWE fields and to our understanding of linkages in the freshwater cycle. In this study, we compared SWE drawn from land surface models and remote sensing observations with measured river discharge (Q) across 179 Arctic river basins. Over the period 1988‐2000, basin‐averaged SWE prior to snowmelt explains a relatively small (yet statistically significant) fraction of interannual variability in spring (April–June) Q, as assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2). Averaged across all basins, mean R2s vary from 0·20 to 0·28, with the best agreement noted for SWE drawn from a simulation with the Pan‐Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) forced with data from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather‐Forecasts (ECMWF) Re‐analysis (ERA‐40). Variability and magnitude in SWE derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data are considerably lower than the variability and magnitude in SWE drawn from the land surface models, and generally poor agreement is noted between SSM/I SWE and spring Q. We find that the SWE versus Q comparisons are no better when alternate temporal integrations–using an estimate of the timing in basin thaw–are used to define pre‐melt SWE and spring Q. Thus, a majority of the variability in spring discharge must arise from factors other than basin snowpack water storage. This study demonstrates how SWE estimated from remote sensing observations, or general circulation models (GCMs), can be evaluated effectively using monthly discharge data or SWE from a hydrological model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Evan Pugh  Eric Gordon 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2048-2060
In regions of western North America with snow‐dominated hydrology, the presence of forested watersheds can significantly influence streamflow compared to areas with other vegetation cover types. Widespread tree death in these watersheds can thus dramatically alter many ecohydrologic processes including transpiration, canopy solar transmission and snow interception, subcanopy wind regimes, soil infiltration, forest energy storage and snow surface albedo. One of the more important causes of conifer tree death is bark beetle infestation, which in some instances will kill nearly all of the canopy trees within forest stands. Since 1996, an ongoing outbreak of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) has caused widespread mortality across more than 600,000 km2 of coniferous forests in western North America, including numerous Rocky Mountain headwaters catchments with high rates of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) mortality from mountain pin beetle (Dendroctonous ponderosae) infestations. Few empirical studies have documented the effects of MPB infestations on hydrologic processes, and little is known about the direction and magnitude of changes in water yield and timing of runoff due to insect‐induced tree death. Here, we review and synthesize existing research and provide new results quantifying the effects of beetle infestations on canopy structure, snow interception and transmission to create a conceptual model of the hydrologic effects of MPB‐induced lodgepole pine death during different stages of mortality. We identify the primary hydrologic processes operating in living forest stands, stands in multiple stages of death and long‐dead stands undergoing regeneration and estimate the direction of change in new water yield. This conceptual model is intended to identify avenues for future research efforts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Hydrologic models that rely on site specific linear and non‐linear regression water temperature (Tw) subroutines forced solely with observed air temperature (Ta) may not accurately estimate Tw in mixed‐use urbanizing watersheds where hydrogeological and land use complexity may confound common Tw regime assumptions. A nested‐scale experimental watershed study design was used to test Tw model predictions in a representative mixed‐use urbanizing watershed of the central USA. The linear regression Tw model used in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a non‐linear regression Tw model, and a process‐based Tw model that accounts for watershed hydrology were evaluated. The non‐linear regression Tw model tested at a daily time step performed significantly (P < 0.01) better than the linear Tw model currently used in SWAT. Both regression Tw models overestimated Tw in lower temperature ranges (Tw < 10.0 °C) with percent bias (PBIAS) values ranging from ?28.2% (non‐linear Tw model) to ?66.1% (linear regression Tw model) and underestimated Tw in the higher temperature range (Tw > 25.0 °C) by 3.2%, and 7.2%, respectively. Conversely, the process‐based Tw model closely estimated Tw in lower temperature ranges (PBIAS = 4.5%) and only slightly underestimated Tw in the higher temperature range (PBIAS = 1.7%). Findings illustrate the benefit of integrating process‐based Tw models with hydrologic models to improve model transferability and Tw predictive confidence in urban mixed‐land use watersheds. The findings in this work are distinct geographically and in terms of mixed‐land use complexity and are therefore of immediate value to land‐use managers in similarly urbanizing watersheds globally. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p < 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Lithological and hydrological influence on fluvial physical and chemical erosion was studied in a glacierized sedimentary basin with high evaporite presence. Suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS) and major ion concentrations were analysed for 2 years of different hydrologic condition: (i) 2009–2010, Q = 100% average; and (ii) 2010–2011, Q = 60% average. Annual hydrograph was simple regime‐type with one peak in summer related to snow melting. The intra‐annual SPM and TDS variations were directly and inversely associated to Q, respectively. Snow chemistry showed continental influence (Na+/Ca2+ = 0.17), and atmospheric input of TDS was <1% of the total exported flux. River water was highly concentrated in Ca2+ and SO42− (~4 mmol l−1) and in Na+ and Cl− (~3 mmol l−1). Ca2+/SO42− and Na+/Cl− molar ratios were ~1 and related to Q, directly and inversely, respectively. Major ion relationships suggest that river chemistry is controlled by evaporite (gypsum and halite) dissolution having a summer input from sulfide oxidation and carbonate dissolution, and a winter input from subsurface flow loaded with silicate weathering products. This variation pattern resulted in nearly chemostatic behaviour for Ca+, Mg2+ and SO42−, whereas Na+, Cl− and SiO2 concentrations showed to be controlled by dilution/concentration processes. During the 2009–2010 hydrological year, the fluxes of water, SPM and TDS registered in the snow melting–high Q season were, respectively, 71%, 92% and 67% of the annual total, whereas for equal period in 2010–2011, 56% of water, 86% of SPM and 54% of TDS annual fluxes were registered. The SPM fluxes for 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 were 1.19 × 106 and 0.79 × 106 t year−1, whereas TDS fluxes were 0.68 × 106 and 0.55 × 106 t year−1, respectively. Export rates for 2009–2010 were 484 t km2 year−1 for SPM and 275 t km2 year−1 for TDS. These rates are higher than those observed in glacierized granite basins and in non‐glacierized evaporite basins, suggesting a synergistic effect of lithology and glaciers on physical and chemical erosion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
This study explores the feasibility of an entirely satellite remote sensing (RS)‐based hydrologic budget model for a ground data‐constrained basin, the Rufiji basin in Tanzania, from the balance of runoff (Q), precipitation (P), storage change (ΔS), and evapotranspiration (ET). P was determined from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, ΔS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and ET from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the surface radiation budget, and the Atmosphere Infrared Radiation Sounder. Q was estimated as a residual of the water balance and tested against measured Q for a sub‐basin of the Rufiji (the Usangu basin) where ground measurements were available (R2 = 0.58, slope = 1.9, root mean square error = 29 mm/month, bias = 14%). We also tested a geographical information system (GIS)‐driven (ArcCN‐runoff) runoff model (R2 = 0.64, slope = 0.43, root mean square error = 39 mm/month). We conducted an error propagation analysis from each of the model's hydrologic components (P, ET, and ΔS). We find that the RS‐based model amplitude is most sensitive to ET and slightly less so to P, whereas the model's seasonal trends are most sensitive to ?S. Although RS–GIS‐driven models are becoming increasingly used, our results indicate that long‐term water resource assessment policy and management may be more appropriate than ‘instantaneous’ or short‐term water resource assessment. However, our analyses help develop a series of tools and techniques to progress our understanding of RS–GIS in water resource management of data‐constrained basins at the level of a water resource manager. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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