共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Dongxiao Wang Yinghao Qin Xianjun Xiao Zuqiang Zhang Xiangyu Wu 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(9):1311-1322
A new ocean reanalysis, covering the period from 1990 to 2009, is evaluated against observational sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) data in reproducing the temporal characteristics of El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki. The new reanalysis assimilates the available SST, temperature–salinity profile, and satellite altimetry data sets into a global ocean model forced with surface boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction atmospheric reanalysis 2. Using the Ni?o 3 index and the improved El Ni?o Modoki index, to distinguish between El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki signals, our results show that the two time series in the new reanalysis are in agreement with those obtained from observations during the study period. A composite analysis method is used to demonstrate the temporal evolution of these two types of El Ni?o. The new reanalysis has the advantage of representing the strength and location of El Ni?o events better than the control run, with an increase in the spatial correlation, but El Ni?o variability in the reanalysis is weak in the eastern Pacific, particularly off the coast of South America. As for the El Ni?o Modoki events, the initiation, development, and termination of the warm SST anomalies all occur in the central Pacific. All main features associated with the warm SST anomaly pattern of El Ni?o Modoki are well represented in the reanalysis. Furthermore, using this new ocean reanalysis, we select two strong cases to investigate possible mechanisms that may lead to the different warm SST anomaly patterns. 相似文献
2.
da Silva DA Buzitis J Krahn MM Bícego MC Pires-Vanin AM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(2):175-183
This study reports the analysis of polycyclic aromatic compound (PAC) metabolites, as biomarkers of exposure to PACs in marine environment. PAC metabolites were measured in bile samples from 14 species of demersal fish caught in the São Sebastião Channel (SSC), SE Brazilian coastline. Naphthalene (NPH) equivalents, phenanthrene (PHN) equivalents, and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalents were quantified using a reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection method. For all samples, the means (±standard deviation, n = 37) of concentrations obtained for NPH, PHN, and BaP equivalents were, respectively, 290,000 ± 200,000 ng/g, 18,000 ± 14,000 ng/g, and 970 ± 1900 ng/g. These results indicate recent exposure of these fish to PACs in their environment. In addition, two species (Cyclichthys spinosus and Prionotus nudigula) of fish were analyzed in order to investigate local sources of PAC contamination in the SSC and the influence of the petroleum terminal in fish caught in remote areas. The results showed that these fish species potentially migrate along the channel, especially P. nudigula. Correlations among groups of PAC metabolites indicate the same petrogenic source for NPH and PHN equivalents and a combustion source (e.g., automobile, ships) for BaP equivalents. The ratio BaP/PHN equivalents (0.05 ± 0.07, n = 37) confirms the predominance of petrogenic PACs for contamination by these chemicals in this region. 相似文献
3.
J. Kelman A. de M. Vieira J. E. Rodriguez-Amaya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2000,14(2):123-138
Stochastic models are often fitted to historical data in order to produce streamflow scenarios. These scenarios are used
as input data for simulation/optimization models that support operational decisions for water resource systems. The streamflow
scenarios are sampled from probability distributions conditioned on the available information, such as recent streamflow data.
In this paper we introduce a procedure for further conditioning the probability distributions by considering the recent measurements
of climatic variables, such as sea temperatures, that are used to describe the occurrence of El Ni?o. We adopt an auto-regressive
model and use the “El Ni?o information” to refine the parameter estimation process for each time step. The corresponding methodology
is tested for the monthly energy time series, “inflowing” to the power plants of Colombia. This is a linear combination of
streamflow values for the 18 most important rivers of the country. 相似文献
4.
The area located inside the São Sebastião volcanic crater, at the southeast end of Terceira Island (Azores), is characterized by an important amplification of ground motion with respect to the surrounding area, as clearly demonstrated by the spatial distribution of the damage that occurred during the Terceira earthquake (the strongest earthquake felt in the Island during the recent decades — 01/01/1980 — M = 7.2). Geological and geophysical studies have been conducted, to characterize the volcanic crater and understand the different site effects that occurred in the village of São Sebastião. The complexity of the subsurface geology, with intercalations of compact basalt and soft pyroclastic deposits, is associated to extreme vertical and lateral velocity contrasts, and poses a serious challenge to different geophysical characterization methods. The available qualitative model did not allow a complete understanding of the site effects. A new seismic campaign has been designed and acquired, and a single, geologically consistent geophysical model has been generated integrating the existing and new data. The new campaign included two cross-line P-wave seismic refraction profiles, four short SH-wave seismic reflection profiles, and seven multichannel surface wave acquisitions. The integration and joint interpretation of geophysical and geological data allowed mutual validation and confirmation of data processing steps. In particular, the use of refraction, reflection and surface wave techniques allowed facing the complexity of a geology that can pose different challenges to all the methods when used individually: velocity inversions, limited reflectivity, and lateral variations. It is shown how the integration of seismic data from different methods, in the framework of a geological model, allowed the geometrical and dynamic characterization of the site. Correlation with further borehole information, then allowed the definition of a subsoil model for the crater, providing information that allowed a better understanding of the earthquake site effects in the São Sebastião village. The new near-surface geological model includes a lava layer within the soft infill materials of the crater. This new model matches closely with the damage distribution map, and explains the spatial variation of building stock performance in the 1980 earthquake. 相似文献
5.
在第二部分,我们研究了中等和较弱El Ni?o的衰减过程. 结果表明,对中等El Ni?o而言,在其发展阶段和盛期,负异常信号在西太平洋产生,但由于强度不足,在El Ni?o盛期之后迅速衰减,这是一种夭折的类西太平洋振子过程. 因此,与强El Ni?o不同,中等El Ni?o衰减进入平常态. 而较弱El Ni?o以截然不同的另一种方式进行位相转换,伴随东南太平洋副高的加强和西移,东风异常和海表温度负异常自赤道东太平洋向西扩展,这是一种平流模态过程,导致较弱El Ni?o衰减进入La Nia. 相似文献
6.
The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Nio had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts(WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Nio, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Nio events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Nio events, the 2015/2016 El Nio exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Nio to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Nio. 相似文献
7.
在第二部分,我们研究了中等和较弱El Ni(n)o的衰减过程. 结果表明,对中等El Ni(n)o而言,在其发展阶段和盛期,负异常信号在西太平洋产生,但由于强度不足,在El Ni(n)o盛期之后迅速衰减,这是一种夭折的类西太平洋振子过程. 因此,与强El Ni(n)o不同,中等El Ni(n)o衰减进入平常态. 而较弱El Ni(n)o以截然不同的另一种方式进行位相转换,伴随东南太平洋副高的加强和西移,东风异常和海表温度负异常自赤道东太平洋向西扩展,这是一种平流模态过程,导致较弱El Ni(n)o衰减进入La Ni(n)a. 相似文献
8.
利用Hadley中心的月平均海温资料、NCEP/NCAR和ERA-Interim逐日再分析大气环流数据等,详细对比了赤道大气季节内振荡(MJO)活动在东部型El Ni?o与中部型El Ni?o发展期间的异同点.结果表明,与传统的东部型El Ni?o发展前MJO明显偏强的特征相似,在中部型El Ni?o迅速发展前的春夏季,MJO动能亦较强且持续东传特征显著.这说明无论是东部型El Ni?o还是中部型El Ni?o,与MJO能量的突然增长相联系的低频纬向西风和低频对流活动的增强及其持续东传是激发El Ni?o的重要因素.但是,在中部型El Ni?o发展成熟的冬季至次年春季,热带中西太平洋MJO动能的强度突然再次增强,所占大气总扰动动能的比重也再次增大,热带MJO动能的逐日演变达到第二次峰值,且较第一次峰值更强;MJO从热带印度洋向赤道中东太平洋持续东传的特征也更为显著.这与在传统东部型El Ni?o盛期MJO能量和东传都明显减弱的特征表现出显著的差异.进一步分析指出,中部型El Ni?o成熟期海温正距平中心位置的西移以及由中部型El Ni?o激发的范围偏小、位置偏西的菲律宾附近异常反气旋环流可能是导致中部型El Ni?o盛期MJO活动显著增强的主要原因. 相似文献
9.
10.
本文利用1948-2010年Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS）NOAH陆面模式资料、GPCC月平均降水资料和NCAR/NCEP全球月平均再分析资料,采用滤波、距平合成和线性相关等方法,分析了El Niño成熟位相冬季欧亚大陆积雪异常的分布特征,研究了关键区积雪融化对后期春、夏季土壤湿度、土壤温度以及大气环流与降水的影响,揭示了El Niño事件通过关键区积雪储存其强迫信号并影响东亚夏季气候异常的机制和过程.主要结论如下：El Niño成熟阶段冬季伊朗高原、巴尔喀什湖东北部和青藏高原南麓区域是雪深异常的三个关键区,这些区域的雪深、雪融和土壤湿度有明显的正相关;这三个关键区雪深异常通过春季融雪将冬季El Niño信号传递给春、夏季局地土壤湿度,通过减少感热通量和增加潜热通量对大气环流产生影响;春末夏初伊朗高原土壤湿度异常对东亚夏季气候异常的影响最大,其引起的降水异常与El Niño次年夏季降水异常分布基本一致,春夏季青藏高原南麓和巴尔喀什湖附近土壤湿度也都明显增加,均会对中国华北降水增加有显著正贡献.总之,在利用El Niño事件研究和预测东亚夏季气候异常时,还应考虑关键区雪深异常对El Niño信号的存储和调制作用. 相似文献
11.
Czizeweski Anthea Pimenta Felipe Mendonça Saavedra Osvaldo Ronald 《Ocean Dynamics》2020,70(5):667-682
Ocean Dynamics - Marine resources are outstanding among renewable energy for their wide occurrence and diverse possibilities of exploitation. The tidal resource can be harnessed by the use of both... 相似文献
12.
13.
14.
2015年11—12月,全国接连发生七次大范围、持续性雾霾天气过程,其中,11月27日—12月1日的雾霾天气过程持续时间长达五天,成为2015年最强的一次重污染天气过程;12月19-25日重度雾霾再次发展,影响面积一度达到35.2万km~2.本文利用多种数据资料通过个例对比和历史统计详细分析了超强El Ni?o背景下雾霾天气频发的天气气候条件.其结果清楚表明:2015年11—12月欧亚中高纬度以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱,使得影响我国的冷空气活动偏少,我国中东部大部地区对流层低层盛行异常偏南风,大气相对湿度明显偏大,并且大气层结稳定,对流层底层存在明显逆温.上述大气环流条件使得污染物的水平和垂直扩散条件差,因此在有一定污染排放的情况下,造成了重度雾霾天气过程的频发.由此,超强El Ni?o事件所导致的大尺度大气环流异常是我国中东部,尤其华北地区冬季雾霾天气频发的重要原因之一. 相似文献
15.
基于近8年卫星观测的全球闪电资料, 对中国东南部和中南半岛各季节闪电密度距平场进行EOF分析发现, 在这一El Ni駉事件期间, 与NINO3区海表温度正距平升高的同时, 1997年春季该地区的闪电活动就出现了显著的正异常, 并一直持续到次年春季结束, 各季度的正异常区闪电密度距平百分率依次是89%, 30%, 45%, 498%和55%, 其中冬季变化幅度最大; 正异常区在冬、春季位于中国南部及其沿海地区, 而在夏、秋季位于中南半岛南部及泰国湾. 与正常年份相比, 各季闪电密度正距平中心位置显著偏西, 特别是冬、春季同时偏北. 另外, 中国南部地区的闪电密度和对流性降水量及高CAPE日数三项距平百分比的年际变化分析表明, 正异常区和黑潮主干区这三项的距平百分比之间两两相关; 在三项中, 闪电密度的相对变化率最大, 闪电活动对El Ni駉事件的响应最灵敏. 但是, 黑潮主干海域、青藏高原和西北、华北-东北等地区的闪电活动对El Ni駉事件的响应情况更为复杂和多样化. 相似文献
16.
Monthly indices of Southern Atmospheric Oscillation (SOI) and corresponding Wolf numbers, geoeffective solar flares, magnetic AE indices as well as daily average values of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF B z) and data on the wind characteristics at Antarctic stations Vostok, Leningradskaya, and Russkaya are analyzed. It is shown that a sharp decrease in the SOI indices, which corresponds to the beginning of El Nin’o (ENSO), is preceded one or two months before by a 20% increase in the monthly average Wolf numbers. In warm years of Southern Atmospheric Oscillation a linear relationship is observed between the SOI indices and the number of geoeffective solar flares with correlation coefficients p < ?0.5. It is shown that in warm years a change in the general direction of the surface wind to anomalous at the above stations is preceded one or two days before by an increase in the daily average values of IMF B z. An increase in the SOI indices is preceded one or two months before by a considerable increase in the monthly average values of the magnetic AE indices. 相似文献
17.
Silva PS Damatto SR Maldonado C Fávaro DI Mazzilli BP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(5):1130-1139
Ten sediment core samples with lengths ranging from 35 to 100 cm were collected in the Baixada Santista region and analyzed to determine As, Br, Co, Cr, Cs, Fe, Rb, Sb, Ta, Th, U, Zn and rare earths (Sc, Ce, Eu, La, Lu, Nd, Sm, Tb and Yb) level concentrations using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The studied region is located in the southeastern coast of São Paulo State and is comprised of a densely urbanized area, the largest industrial complex of the country, with a predominance of petrochemical and fertilizer plants. It is also home to Brazil’s most important and busiest port. The conclusions found that the As, La, Sm, Ne, Ce, Eu, Hf, Ta, Th, and U elements have a high background level in the region and that Fe and Zn were the main indicators of anthropogenic contribution in the sediments. 相似文献
18.
The state of knowledge and outstanding issues with respect to the global mean energy budget of planet Earth are described, along with the ability to track changes over time. Best estimates of the main energy components involved in radiative transfer and energy flows through the climate system do not satisfy physical constraints for conservation of energy without adjustments. The main issues relate to the downwelling longwave (LW) radiation and the hydrological cycle, and thus the surface evaporative cooling. It is argued that the discrepancy is 18% of the surface latent energy flux, but only 4% of the downwelling LW flux and, for various reasons, it is most likely that the latter is astray in some calculations, including many models, although there is also scope for precipitation estimates to be revised. Beginning in 2000, the top-of-atmosphere radiation measurements provide stable estimates of the net global radiative imbalance changes over a decade, but after 2004 there is “missing energy” as the observing system of the changes in ocean heat content, melting of land ice, and so on is unable to account for where it has gone. Based upon a number of climate model experiments for the twenty-first century where there are stases in global surface temperature and upper ocean heat content in spite of an identifiable global energy imbalance, we infer that the main sink of the missing energy is likely the deep ocean below 275?m depth. 相似文献
19.
Influence of SOI, DMI and Niño3.4 on South Australian rainfall 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Rezaul K. Chowdhury Simon Beecham 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):1909-1920
The influences of climate drivers (SOI, DMI and Niño3.4) on South Australian (SA) rainfall are investigated in this study. Recent records of monthly rainfall and climate driver index values from 1981 to 2010 were analysed for 53 rainfall stations, located across eight SA natural resources management (NRM) regions. The Pearson, Kendall and Spearman correlation tests were applied between rainfall and climate drivers and between the climate drivers themselves. Both SA summer (December to February) and autumn (March to May) rainfalls were found not significantly influenced by climate indices. Winter rainfall in the south and east parts of SA was found strongly influenced by both SOI and DMI, particularly in July and August. Both SOI and DMI are inter-correlated in winter. Spring rainfall was found significantly influenced by DMI in the south and east parts of SA, particularly in September and October. In terms of ENSO phenomena, whilst both SOI and Niño3.4 are correlated, SOI was found more to be influential than Niño3.4 for SA winter and spring rainfall. Outcomes of the study are useful for stochastic rainfall generation and for developing downscaling techniques to generate rainfall projections in the region. 相似文献
20.
基于日本“长风号”调查船在1997与1998年10个航次的CTD资料，采用改进逆方法及改进动力计算方法对东海黑潮的流速、流量进行计算. 1997年5月出现了El-Ni?o现象，东海黑潮流量在1997年夏季减少，1997年东海黑潮的平均流量也减少. 在1997年1月与6—7月，即El-Ni?o现象出现前后，东海环流的流态有些不同. 在1998年4至11月黑潮在PN断面出现多流核心的结构，特别在10—11月出现3个流核心，黑潮主流核的位置秋季时东移. 1995年与1998年都是东海黑潮异常年，这些异常现象可能与冲绳岛以南出现的反气旋涡的强度变化以及从El-Ni?o现象过渡到La-Ni?a现象有关. 相似文献