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1.
To project potential habitat changes of 57 fish species under global warming, their suitable thermal habitat at 764 stream gaging stations in the contiguous United States was studied. Global warming was specified by air temperature increases projected by the Canadian Centre of Climate Modelling General Circulation Model for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The aquatic thermal regime at each gaging station was related to air temperature using a nonlinear stream temperature/air temperature relationship.Suitable fish thermal habitat was assumed to be constrained by both maximum temperature and minimum temperature tolerances. For cold water fishes with a 0 °C lower temperature constraint, the number of stations with suitable thermal habitat under a 2×CO2 climate scenario is projected to decrease by 36%, and for cool water fishes by 15%. These changes are associated with a northward shift of the range. For warm water fishes with a 2 °C lower temperature constraint, the potential number of stations with suitable thermal habitat is projected to increase by 31%. 相似文献
2.
To simulate effects of projected climate change on water temperature characteristics of small lakes in the contiguous U.S., a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water temperature model is applied. In cold regions the model simulates ice and snow cover on a lake. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area, maximum depth, and Secchi depth as a measure of radiation attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data. Weather records from 209 stations in the contiguous U.S. for the period 1961–1979 were used to represent present climate conditions. The projected climate change owing to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. The simulated water temperature and ice characteristics are related to the geometric and trophic state lake characteristics and to geographic location. By interpolation, the sensitivity of lake water temperature characteristics to latitude, longitude, lake geometry and trophic status can therefore be quantified for small lakes in the contiguous U.S. The 2× CO2 climate scenario is projected to increase maximum and minimum lake surface temperatures by up to 5.2°C. (Maximum surface water temperatures in lakes near the northern and the southern border of the contiguous U.S. currently differ by up to 13°C.) Maximum temperature differences between lake surface and lake bottom are projected to increase in average by only 1 to 2°C after climate warming. The duration of seasonal summer stratification is projected to be up to 66 days longer under a 2×CO2 climate scenario. Water temperatures of less than 8°C are projected to occur on lake bottoms during a period which is on the order of 50 days shorter under a 2×CO2 climate scenario. With water temperature change projected to be as high as 5.2°C, ecological impacts such as shifts in species distributions and in fish habitat are most likely. Ice covers on lakes of northern regions would also be changed strongly. 相似文献
3.
In Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, rice constitutes a major export on which the economy of the whole country depends. Climate change could affect rice growth and development and thus jeopardize Thailand's wealth. Current climatic conditions in Thailand are compared to predictions from four general circulation models (GCMs). Temperature predictions correlate well with the observed values. Predictions of monthly rainfall correlate poorly. Virtually all models agree that significant increases in temperature (from 1 to 7 °C) will occur in the region including Thailand following a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The regional seasonality and extent of the rise in temperature varies with each model. Predictions of changes in rainfall vary widely between models. Global warming should in principle allow a northward expansion of rice-growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season now constrained by low temperatures. The expected increase in water-use efficiency due to enhanced CO2 might decrease the water deficit vulnerability of dryland rice areas and could make it possible to slightly expand them.The research described in this article has been funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract # 68-C8-0006 to ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc. It has been subjected to the Agency's peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. 相似文献
4.
The OSU global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model has been used to investigate a 2xCO2-induced climate change. A previous analysis of the simulated 2xCO2–1xCO2 temperature differences showed that the CO2-induced warming penetrated into the ocean and thereby caused a delay in the equilibration of the climate system with an estimatede-folding time of 50–75 years. The objective of the present study is to determine by what pathways and through which physical processes the simulated ocean general circulation produces the penetration of the CO2-induced warming into the ocean.A global-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the ocean gains heat at a rate of 3 W/m2 due to the CO2 doubling, and that this heat penetrates downward into the ocean predominantly through the reduction in the convective overturning. A zonal-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the surface warming increases from the tropics toward the midlatitudes of both hemispheres and gradually penetrated into the deeper ocean, with a greater penetration in the subtropics and midlatitudes than in the equatorial region. The zonal-mean heat budget analysis also shows that the CO2-induced warming of the ocean occurs predominantly through the down-ward transport of heat, with the meridional heat flux being only of secondary importance. In the tropics the penetration of the CO2-induced heating is minimized by the upwelling of cold water. In the subtropics the heating is transported down-ward more readily by the downwelling existing there. In the high latitudes the suppressed convection plays the dominant role in the downward penetration of the CO2-induced heating. The latter result should be considered as tentative, however, as the ocean component of the coupled model employed a prescribed surface salinity field and did not include the mechanism of brine rejection when sea water freezes into sea ice. 相似文献
5.
The effect of projected global climate change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 on water temperatures in five streams in Minnesota was estimated using a deterministic heat transport model. The model calculates heat exchange between the atmosphere and the water and is driven by climate parameters and stream hydrologic parameters. The model is most sensitive to air temperature and solar radiation. The model was calibrated against detailed measurements to account for seasonally variable shading and wind sheltering. Using climate projections from the GISS, GFDL and OSU GCMs as input; stream temperature simulations predict a warming of freely flowing river reaches by 2.4 °C to 4.7 °C when atmospheric CO2 doubles. In small shaded streams water temperatures are predicted to rise by an additional 6 °C in summer if trees along stream banks should be lost due to climate change or other human activities (e.g. logging). These projected water temperature changes have significant consequences for survival and growth of fishes. Simulation with the complete heat budget equations were also used to examine simplified water temperature/air temperature correlations. 相似文献
6.
L. D. Danny Harvey 《Climatic change》1989,15(3):339-341
A coupled carbon cycle-climate model is used to compute global atmospheric CO2 and temperature variation that would result from several future CO2 emission scenarios. The model includes temperature and CO2 feedbacks on the terrestrial biosphere, and temperature feedback on the oceanic uptake of CO2. The scenarios used include cases in which fossil fuel CO2 emissions are held constant at the 1986 value or increase by 1% yr–1 until either 2000 or 2020, followed by a gradual transition to a rate of decrease of 1 or 2% yr–1. The climatic effect of increases in non-CO2 trace gases is included, and scenarios are considered in which these gases increase until 2075 or are stabilized once CO2 emission reductions begin. Low and high deforestation scenarios are also considered. In all cases, results are computed for equilibrium climatic sensitivities to CO2 doubling of 2.0 and 4.0 °C.Peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 400–500 ppmv and global mean warming after 1980 of 0.6–3.2 °C occur, with maximum rates of global mean warming of 0.2–0.3 °C decade–1. The peak CO2 concentrations in these scenarios are significantly below that commonly regarded as unavoidable; further sensitivity analyses suggest that limiting atmospheric CO2 to as little as 400 ppmv is a credible option.Two factors in the model are important in limiting atmospheric CO2: (1) the airborne fraction falls rapidly once emissions begin to decrease, so that total emissions (fossil fuel + land use-induced) need initially fall to only about half their present value in order to stabilize atmospheric CO2, and (2) changes in rates of deforestation have an immediate and proportional effect on gross emissions from the biosphere, whereas the CO2 sink due to regrowth of forests responds more slowly, so that decreases in the rate of deforestation have a disproportionately large effect on net emission.If fossil fuel emissions were to decrease at 1–2% yr–1 beginning early in the next century, emissions could decrease to the rate of CO2 uptake by the predominantly oceanic sink within 50–100 yrs. Simulation results suggest that if subsequent emission reductions were tied to the rate of CO2 uptake by natural CO2 sinks, these reductions could proceed more slowly than initially while preventing further CO2 increases, since the natural CO2 sink strength decreases on time scales of one to several centuries. The model used here does not account for the possible effect on atmospheric CO2 concentration of possible changes in oceanic circulation. Based on past rates of atmospheric CO2 variation determined from polar ice cores, it appears that the largest plausible perturbation in ocean-air CO2 flux due to changes of oceanic circulation is substantially smaller than the permitted fossil fuel CO2 emissions under the above strategy, so tieing fossil fuel emissions to the total sink strength could provide adequate flexibility for responding to unexpected changes in oceanic CO2 uptake caused by climatic warming-induced changes of oceanic circulation. 相似文献
7.
The water balance model KAUSHA (Halldin, 1989) was applied to a 100-year-old beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest in northern Germany. Overall, a satisfying agreement between modelled evapotranspiration values and independent micrometeorological measurements (Bowen ratio energy balance method) could be observed, although for rainy days KAUSHA showed a tendency to overestimate evapotranspiration. The model was used to predict the effects of a climate warming on the water budgets of the forest. It is shown that a temperature increase of 2°C due to a rising CO2 content of the atmosphere will not change the yearly totals of evapotranspiration significantly, but could have serious effects on the soil water balance during the vegetation period. Because under climate change conditions a higher amount of the available soil water has already been evaporated in winter and spring, soil water content will limit the transpiration of the trees from July to September much more strongly. Therefore, the yield of beech forest might also suffer from drought effects. It can be concluded that a better knowledge of the seasonal distribution of rainfall under climate change conditions is indispensable for predicting effects of rising temperatures and CO2 concentrations on ecosystems. 相似文献
8.
Summary In this paper we briefly describe the characteristics and the performance of our 1-D Muenster Climate Model. The model system consists of coupled models including gas cycle models, an energy balance model and a sea level rise model. The chemical feedback mechanisms among greenhouse gases are not included. This model, which is a scientifically-based parameterized simulation model, is used here primarily to help assess the effectiveness of various plausible policy options in mitigating the additional man-made greenhouse warming and the resulting sea level rise.For setting priorities it is important to assess the effectiveness of the various measures by which the greenhouse effect can be reduced. To this end we take a Scenario Business-as-Usual as a reference case (Leggett et al., 1992) and study the mitigating effects of the following four packages of measures: The Copenhagen Agreements on CFC, HCFC, and halon reduction (GECR, 1992), the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan of the Climate Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament on CO2 reduction (ECGP, 1990), a detailed reduction scheme for energy-related CO2 (ECGP, 1990), and a preliminary scheme for CH4, CO, and N2O reduction (Bach and Jain, 1992–1993).The required reduction depends, among others, on the desired climate and ecosystem protection. This is defined by the Enquete-Commission and others as a mean global rate of surface temperature change of ca. 0.1 °C per decade — assumed to be critical to many ecosystems — and a mean global warming ceiling of ca. 2 °C in 2100 relative to 1860.Our results show that the Copenhagen Agreements, the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan, the energy-related CO2 reduction scheme, and the CH4 and N2O reduction schemes could mitigate the anthropogenic greenhouse warming by ca. 12%, 6%, 35%, and 9% respectively. Taken together, all four packages of measures could reduce the man-made greenhouse effect by more than 60% until 2100; i.e. over the climate sensitivity range 2.5 °C (1.5 to 4.5) for 2 × CO2, the warming could be reduced from 3.5 °C (2.4 to 5.0) without specific measures to 1.3 °C (0.9 to 2.0) with the above packages of measures; and likewise, the mean global sea level rise could be reduced from 65 cm (46 to 88) without specific measures to 32 cm (22 to 47) with the above measures.Finally, the model results also emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO2 in mitigating additional man-made greenhouse warming. According to our preliminary estimates, CH4 could in the short term make a sizable contribution to the reduction of the greenhouse effect (because of its relatively short lifetime of 10 yr), as could N2O in the medium and long term (with a relatively long lifetime of 150 yr).With 7 Figures 相似文献
9.
Increased hurricane intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The impact of CO2-induced global warming on the intensities of strong hurricanes is investigated using the GFDL regional high-resolution hurricane
prediction system. The large-scale initial conditions and boundary conditions for the regional model experiments, including
SSTs, are derived from control and transient CO2 increase experiments with the GFDL R30-resolution global coupled climate model. In a case study approach, 51 northwest Pacific
storm cases derived from the global model under present-day climate conditions are simulated with the regional model, along
with 51 storm cases for high CO2 conditions. For each case, the regional model is integrated forward for five days without ocean coupling. The high CO2 storms, with SSTs warmer by about 2.2 °C on average and higher environmental convective available potential energy (CAPE),
are more intense than the control storms by about 3–7 m/s (5%–11%) for surface wind speed and 7 to 24 hPa for central surface
pressure. The simulated intensity increases are statistically significant according to most of the statistical tests conducted
and are robust to changes in storm initialization methods. Near-storm precipitation is 28% greater in the high CO2 sample. In terms of storm tracks, the high CO2 sample is quite similar to the control. The mean radius of hurricane force winds is 2 to 3% greater for the composite high
CO2 storm than for the control, and the high CO2 storms penetrate slightly higher into the upper troposphere. More idealized experiments were also performed in which an initial
storm disturbance was embedded in highly simplified flow fields using time mean temperature and moisture conditions from the
global climate model. These idealized experiments support the case study results and suggest that, in terms of thermodynamic
influences, the results for the NW Pacific basin are qualitatively applicable to other tropical storm basins.
Received: 20 July 1998/Accepted: 24 December 1998 相似文献
10.
Based on model computations, the regeneration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) was studied at the northern timber line in Finland (70°N) in relation to elevating temperature and atmospheric CO2. If a transient increase of 4°C was assumed during the next 100 years, the length of growing season increased from the current 110–120 days to 150–160 days. This was associated with ca. 5°C increase in the soil temperature over June–August with larger variability in temperature and deeper freezing of the soil due to the reduced depth and duration of the snow cover. At the same time, the moisture content of the surface soil decreased ca. 10% and was more variable, due to less infiltration of water into the soil as a consequence of the enhanced evapotranspiration and deeper freezing of the soil. The temperature elevation alone, or combined with elevating CO2, increased flowering and the subsequent seed crop of Scots pine with a decrease in the frequency of zero crops. In both cases, temperature elevation substantially increased the success of regeneration in terms of the number of seedlings produced after each seed crop. The increasing number of mature seeds was mainly responsible for the enhanced regeneration, but increasing soil temperature also increased the success of regeneration. The soil moisture was seldom limited for seed germination. In terms of the density of seedling stands, and the height and diameter growth of the seedlings, the establishment of a seedling stand was substantially improved under the combined elevation of temperature and CO2 in such a way that the temperature increased the number of mature seeds and enhanced germination of seeds and CO2 increased seedling growth. Even under the changing climatic conditions, however, the growth of the seedling stands was slow, which indicated that the northward advance of the timber line would probably be very slow, even though regeneration was no longer a limiting factor. 相似文献
11.
S. A. Saseendran K. K. Singh L. S. Rathore S. V. Singh S. K. Sinha 《Climatic change》2000,44(4):495-514
The CERES-Rice v3. crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for its suitability to simulate rice production in the tropical humid climate Kerala State of India, is used for analysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the state. The plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century, taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5°C, and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day, over the state of Kerala in the decade 2040–2049 with respect to the 1980s. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO2 about 460 PPM by the middle of the next century are also used in the crop model simulation. On an average over the state with the climate change scenario studied, the rice maturity period is projected to shorten by 8% and yield increase by 12%. When temperature elevations only are taken into consideration, the crop simulations show a decrease of 8% in crop maturity period and 6% in yield. This shows that the increase in yield due to fertilisation effect of elevated CO2 and increased rainfall over the state as projected in the climate change scenario nearly makes up for the negative impact on rice yield due to temperature rise. The sensitivity experiments of the rice model to CO2 concentration changes indicated that over the state, an increase in CO2 concentration leads to yield increase due to its fertilisation effect and also enhance the water use efficiency of the paddy. The temperature sensitivity experiments have shown that for a positive change in temperature up to 5°C, there is a continuous decline in the yield. For every one degree increment the decline in yield is about 6%. Also, in another experiment it is observed that the physiological effect of ambient CO2 at 425 ppm concentration compensated for the yield losses due to increase in temperature up to 2°C. Rainfall sensitivity experiments have shown that increase in rice yield due to increase in rainfall above the observed values is near exponential. But decrease in rainfall results in yield loss at a constant rate of about 8% per 2 mm/day, up to about 16 mm/day. 相似文献
12.
A frequently made assumption in simple models of long-term climatic behavior (e.g. ‘energy balance’ models) is that, owing to instability engendered by the ice-albedo feedback, the climatic system (surface temperature, in particular) can exhibit multiple steady states within the paleoclimatologically observed range of temperature. Here we show that, for a more comprehensive model than an energy balance model, the CCM1 general circulation model, such a bimodality does not exist for present values of the solar constant and atmospheric CO2 even if one excludes the existence of a seasonal cycle of radiative forcing. Thus, no evidence is found to support the whole class of ice-age theories tuned to present CO2 levels that depend on this bimodality. As a corollary, support is found for the idea that surficial temperature and snow-sea-ice cover are essentially ‘slaved’, fast-response, climatic variables that equilibrate uniquely with the prescribed external forcing and the slow-response climatic variables (e.g. the ice sheets and deep ocean state). It is also implied that, although care should be exercised in the choice of initial conditions to minimize computer time, the selection of initial conditions is not likely to affect the final outcome of general circulation model studies of climate for fixed (near-present) values of the solar constant and CO2 forcing. 相似文献
13.
T. M. Lenton M. S. Williamson N. R. Edwards R. Marsh A. R. Price A. J. Ridgwell J. G. Shepherd S. J. Cox 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(7-8):687-711
A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8–3.3°C and predict atmospheric CO2 close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO2 emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100–15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO2 approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420–5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5–12.5°C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year−1. Under ‘business as usual’, the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year−1. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6°C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4–10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources. 相似文献
14.
B. G. Hunt 《Climatic change》2009,97(3-4):389-407
A multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to determine whether climatic conditions approximate to those experienced by the medieval Norse settlers in Greenland could be identified. The aim of this analysis was to see whether such conditions could be replicated by the natural climatic variability in this unforced simulation, in order to counteract claims that the current observed global warming is merely another example of this type of climatic regime. This view has been expressed in the media in an attempt to refute the existence of a CO2-induced global warming. A 291-year period of above-average temperature followed by a 41-year cooler period were identified in one millennium of the simulation, and subsequently used as an analogue of conditions representative of the time of the Norse settlements. Considerable interannual variability existed in both these periods, but with noticeable positive and negative surface temperature anomalies in the warm and cold periods respectively. Thus the warm period was not a time of uniform benign conditions. Above-average precipitation was also associated with the warm period, and these climatic conditions would have enhanced pasture growth and hay production (the only crop the Norse produced) thereby sustaining the livelihood of the Norse Greenlanders. The climatic conditions associated with the cold period in the model were probably sufficient to limit the survival prospects of the settlers, especially when other, probably more critical, deleterious factors are taken into account. The temperature anomalies replicated in the simulation are similar to the limited proxy data, but may be smaller in magnitude: nevertheless they appear to be sufficiently large to have affected the viability of the Norse Greenlanders. After considering possible climatic mechanisms that could have contributed to these warm and cold periods it was concluded that they are simply a consequence of stochastic influences generated by nonlinear processes in the simulation. Thus this simulation provides no support for the contention that the current global warming is a manifestation of conditions prevailing during the Norse settlements in Greenland. 相似文献
15.
A Water Balance Model for a Subarctic Sedge Fen and its Application to Climatic Change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wayne R. Rouse 《Climatic change》1998,38(2):207-234
A model to calculate the water balance of a hummocky sedge fen in the northern Hudson Bay Lowland is presented. The model develops the potential latent heat flux (evaporation) as a function of net radiation and atmospheric temperature. It is about equally sensitive to a 2% change in net radiation and a 1°C change in temperature. The modelled potential evaporation agrees well with the Priestley–Taylor formulation of evaporation under conditions of a non-limiting water supply. The actual evaporative heat flux is modelled by expressing actual/potential evaporation as a function of potential accumulated water deficit. Model evaporation agrees well with energy balance calculations using 7 years of measured data including wet and dry extremes. Water deficit is defined as the depth of water below reservoir capacity. Modelled water table changes concur with measurements taken over a 4 year period. When net radiation, temperature and precipitation measurements are available the water balance can be projected to longer time periods. Over a 30 year interval (1965–1994) the water balance of the sedge fen showed the following. During the growing season, there was an increase in precipitation, no change in temperature and a decrease in net radiation, evapotranspiration and water deficit. There was also a decrease in winter snow depths. The fen was brought back to reservoir capacity during final snowmelt every year but one. Summer rainfall was the most important single factor affecting the water balance and the ratio actual/potential evaporation emerged as a linear function of rainfall amount. A 2 × CO2 climate warming scenario with an annual temperature increase of 4°C and no precipitation change indicates lesser snow amounts and a shorter snow cover period. A greater summer water deficit, triggered mainly by greater evaporation during the month of May, is partially alleviated by lesser evaporation magnitudes in July. The greater water deficit would be counterbalanced by a 23% increase in summer rainfall. On average, the fen's water reservoir would still be recharged after winter snowmelt but the ground would remain at reservoir capacity for a shorter time. The warming scenario with a 10% decline in summer rainfall would create a large increase in the longevity and severity of the water deficit and this would be particularly evident during drier years. The carbon budget and peat accumulation and breakdown rates are strongly affected by changes in the water balance. Some evidence implies that greater water deficits lead to an increase in net carbon emissions. This implies that the sedge peatland could lose biomass under such conditions. An example is given where increased water deficit results in large decreases in local wetland streamflow. 相似文献
16.
Sensitivity of evapotranspiration of cotton and sorghum in west Texas to changes in climate and CO2 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary In regions such as west Texas where water is scarce, changes in the water balance may have a significant impact on agricultural production and management of water resources. We used the mechanistic soil-plant-atmosphere simulation model ENWATBAL to evaluate changes in soil water evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) in cotton and grain sorghum that may occur due to climate change and elevated CO2 in west Texas. Climatic and plant factors were varied individually, and in combination, to determine their impact onE andT. Of the climatic factors,E was most sensitive to changes in vapor pressure, andT to changes in irradiance. Simulations suggest that if warming is accompanied by higher humidity, the impact of climate change may be minimal. However, if the climate becomes warmer and less humid,ET may increase substantially. Simulations also suggest that enhanced growth due to elevated CO2 may have a greater impact onET than climatic change.With 9 Figures 相似文献
17.
Noah S. Diffenbaugh 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(2-3):237-251
In order to test the sensitivity of regional climate to regional-scale atmosphere-land cover feedbacks, we have employed a regional climate model asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model, focusing on the western United States as a case study. CO2-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks resulted in statistically significant seasonal temperature changes of up to 3.5°C, with land cover change accounting for up to 60% of the total seasonal response to elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. In many areas, such as the Great Basin, albedo acted as the primary control on changes in surface temperature. Along the central coast of California, soil moisture effects magnified the temperature response in JJA and SON, with negative surface soil moisture anomalies accompanied by negative evaporation anomalies, decreasing latent heat flux and further increasing surface temperature. Additionally, negative temperature anomalies were calculated at high elevation in California and Oregon in DJF, MAM and SON, indicating that future warming of these sensitive areas could be mitigated by changes in vegetation distribution and an associated muting of winter snow-temperature feedbacks. Precipitation anomalies were almost universally not statistically significant, and very little change in mean seasonal atmospheric circulation occurred in response to atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. Further, the mean regional temperature sensitivity to regional-scale land cover feedbacks did not exceed the large-scale sensitivity calculated elsewhere, indicating that spatial heterogeneity does not introduce non-linearities in the response of regional climate to CO2-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. 相似文献
18.
L. D. D. Harvey 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(7):491-500
This work uses an energy balance climate model (EBCM) with explicit infrared radiative transfer, parametrized tropospheric
temperature and humidity profiles, and separate stratosphere, troposphere, and surface energy balances, to investigate claims
that a downward redistribution of tropospheric water vapor in response to surface warming could serve as a strong negative
feedback on climatic change. A series of sensitivity tests is carried out using: (1) a variety of relationships between total
precipitable water in the troposphere and temperature; (2) feedbacks between surface temperature and the vertical distribution
of tropospheric water vapor at low latitudes; and (3) feedback between surface temperature or meridional temperature gradient
and lapse rate. Fixed relative humidity (RH) enhances the global mean surface temperature response to a CO2 doubling by only 50% compared to fixed absolute humidity, giving a response of 1.8 K. When water vapor is assumed to be redistributed
downward between 30°S–30°N such that a 1 K surface warming reduces total precipitable water above 600 hPa by 10%, the global
mean surface air temperature response is reduced to 1.2 K. Assuming a stronger downward redistribution in relation to surface
temperature change has a rapidly diminishing marginal effect on global mean and tropical surface temperature response, while
slightly increasing the warming at high latitudes due to the parametrized dependence of middle-to-high latitude lapse rate
on the meridional temperature gradient. A modest downward water vapor redistribution, such that absolute humidity in the upper
troposphere at subtropical latitudes is constant as total precipitable water increases, can reduce the tropical temperature
sensitivity to less than 1 K, while increasing the equator-to-pole amplification of the surface air temperature response from
a factor of about three to a factor of four. However, it is concluded that whatever changes in future GCM response might occur
as a result of new parametrizations of subgrid-scale processes, they are exceedingly unlikely to produce a climate sensitivity
to a CO2 doubling of less than 1 K even if there is a strong downward shift in the water vapor distribution as climate warms.
Received: 23 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 November 1999 相似文献
19.
Recent research has suggested that warmer conditions, that may result from increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, may induce the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Miller and de Vernal 1992) through the impact of warmer temperature on the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere and thus on precipitation. In this study we examine this possibility by using a coupled energy balance climate-thermo-dynamic sea ice model. Results indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions of CO2 induced warming.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil 相似文献
20.
R. C. Balling Jr. R. S. Cerveny T. A. Miller S. B. Idso 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1991,46(3-4):181-184
Summary An analysis of data pertaining to the period 1861–1986 reveals that (1) a 1 °C rise in the mean annual air temperature of the British Isles has historically been associated with a 35% drop in the percentage of days that the United Kingdom has experienced cyclonic flow, and (2) a 2 °C increase in the mean annual air temperature over the sea to the north has typically been matched by a 60% drop in the percentage of days that the isles have experienced cyclonic flow originating from that source region. These findings raise significant questions about the oft-reported claim that CO2-induced global warming will lead to an increase in world storminess.With 3 Figures 相似文献