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1.
Raymond A. Assel 《Climatic change》1991,18(4):377-395
Statistical ice cover models were used to project daily mean basin ice cover and annual ice cover duration for Lakes Superior and Erie. Models were applied to a 1951–80 base period and to three 30-year steady double carbon dioxide (2 × CO2) scenarios produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), and the Oregon State University (OSU) general circulation models. Ice cover estimates were made for the West, Central, and East Basins of Lake Erie and for the West, East, and Whitefish Bay Basins of Lake Superior. Average ice cover duration for the 1951– 80 base period ranged from 13 to 16 weeks for individual lake basins. Reductions in average ice cover duration under the three 2 × CO2 scenarios for individual lake basins ranged from 5 to 12 weeks for the OSU scenario, 8 to 13 weeks for the GISS scenario, and 11 to 13 weeks for GFDL scenario. Winters without ice formation become common for Lake Superior under the GFDL scenario and under all three 2 × CO2 scenarios for the Central and East Basins of Lake Erie. During an average 2 × CO2 winter, ice cover would be limited to the shallow areas of Lakes Erie and Superior. Because of uncertainties in the ice cover models, the results given here represent only a first approximation and are likely to represent an upper limit of the extent and duration of ice cover under the climate change projected by the three 2 × CO2scenarios. Notwithstanding these limitations, ice cover projected by the 2 × CO2 scenarios provides a preliminary assessment of the potential sensitivity of the Great Lakes ice cover to global warming. Potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of a 2 × CO2 warming include year-round navigation, change in abundance of some fish species in the Great Lakes, discontinuation or reduction of winter recreational activities, and an increase in winter lake evaporation. 相似文献
2.
Recent Trends In Laurentian Great Lakes Ice Cover 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A 39-winter (1963–2001) record of annual maximum ice concentration (AMIC), the maximum fraction of lake surface area covered by ice each year, is analyzed for each Great Lake. Lake Erie has the largest median AMIC (94%) followed by Lakes Superior (80%), Huron(63%), Michigan (33%), and Ontario (21%). The frequency distributionof AMICs is negatively skewed for Lakes Superior and Erie and positively skewed for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Temporal and spatial patterns of typical and extreme AMICs is presented within the context of long-term average air temperatures and lake bathymetry. The variation of spatially averaged ice concentration with discrete depth ranges are discussed for each lake for the upper and lower end of the typical range of AMIC values. In general, ice concentration decreases with increasing depth ranges for a given winter. A decrease in the gradient of ice concentration with depths was also observed with an increase in the AMIC from winter 1983 to winter 1984. A temporal trend in the AMICs supports the hypothesis of three ice cover regimes over the past 39 winters. Approximately 44% of the highest quartile (10 highest) AMICs for the Great Lakes occurred during the 6-winter period:1977–1982 providing evidence of a higher ice cover regime during thisperiod relative to the 14 winters before them (1963–1976) and the 19 winters after them (1983–2001). Winter 1998 established new low AMIC extremes,and the AMIC averaged over the 1998–2001 winters is the lowest for theperiod of record on four of the five Great Lakes. These recent trends taken together are noteworthy as they may be harbingers of a period of even lower AMICs in the 21st Century. 相似文献
3.
Climate change impacts on Laurentian Great Lakes levels 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Holly C. Hartmann 《Climatic change》1990,17(1):49-67
Scenarios of water supplies reflecting CO2-induced climatic change are used to determine potential impacts on levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes and likely water management policy implications. The water supplies are based on conceptual models that link climate change scenarios from general circulation models to estimates of basin runoff, overlake precipitation, and lake evaporation. The water supply components are used in conjunction with operational regulation plans and hydraulic routing models of outlet and connecting channel flows to estimate water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Three steady-state climate change scenarios, corresponding to modeling a doubling of atmospheric CO2, are compared to a steady-state simulation obtained with historical data representing an unchanged atmosphere. One transient climate change scenario, representing a modeled transition from present conditions to doubled CO2 concentrations, is compared to a transient simulation with historical data. The environmental, socioeconomic, and policy implications of the climate change effects modeled herein suggest that new paradigms in water management will be required to address the prospective increased allocation conflicts between users of the Great Lakes.GLERL Contribution No. 645. 相似文献
4.
This paper represents an attempt to combine the output of several models that deal with future climatic, hydrologic and economic conditions in the Great Lakes and makes some predictions about the possible impact of one scenario of 2 × CO2 climate on Great Lakes shipping. It is realized that there is a great deal of uncertainty in all the models and that improvements are continually being made. Data from a General Circulation Model of future temperature and precipitation in the Great Lakes basin, a Great Lakes levels and flows model from the Canada Centre for Inland Waters and an International Joint Commision's Great Lakes economic model modified by the University of Wisconsin were used. The 1900–1976 period of lake levels and flows was used. The hydrologic model indicated that future mean lake levels may be reduced by one-half meter, and that the extreme low levels of the mid 1960's could occur 77% of the time in the future. No ice cover is predicted for any lake except Erie, permitting an eleven month shipping season. Five scenarios of future impact on shipping were evaluated. It was found that mean annual shipping costs may increase by 30% and the frequency of years when costs exceed those of the period of low lake levels (1963–65) could rise to 97%. Possible policy options in a future with climatically induced lower lake levels could include regulation to keep levels artificially high by diversions into the system, or increased dredging of the connecting channels. 相似文献
5.
Paleo-reconstructed hydrologic records offer the potential to evaluate water resources system performance under conditions that may be more extreme than seen in the historical record. This study uses a stochastic simulation framework consisting of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model (NHMM) to simulate the climate state using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)-reconstructed data, and K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) to resample observational net basin supply magnitudes for the Great Lakes of North America. The method was applied to generate 500 plausible simulations, each with 100 years of monthly net basin supply for the Upper Great Lakes, to place the observed data into a longer temporal context. The range of net basin supply sequences represents what may have occurred in the past 1,000 years and which can occur in future. The approach was used in evaluation of operational plans for regulation of Lake Superior outflows with implications for lake levels of Superior, Michigan, Huron and Erie, and their interconnecting rivers. The simulations generally preserved the statistics of the observed record while providing new variability statistics. The framework produced a variety of high and low net basin supply sequences that provide a broader estimate of the likelihood of extreme lake levels and their persistence than with the historical record. The method does not rely on parametrically generated net basin supply values unlike parametric stochastic simulation techniques, yet still generates new variability through the incorporation of the paleo-record. The process described here generated new scenarios that are plausible based on the paleo and historic record. The evaluation of Upper Great Lakes regulation plans, subject to these scenarios, was used to evaluate robustness of the regulation plans. While the uncertain future climate cannot be predicted, one can evaluate system performance on a wide range of plausible climate scenarios. 相似文献
6.
Abstract Large enough to include many oceanic phenomena, the Laurentian Great Lakes are more accurately described as inland seas. With the exception of the shallow Western Basin of Lake Erie, the lakes are thermally stratified in summer, homogeneous in winter, with average temperatures passing through the temperature of maximum density of fresh water (4°C) in both the spring and the fall. The circulation is mainly powered by the wind but is strongly modified by thermal stratification and basin geometry. Effects of the earth's rotation are present in all large‐scale flows. Current speeds are typically 10 cm s?1; they are too small, with rare exceptions, to present difficulties to navigation but a knowledge of the patterns of water movement is essential for interpreting the behaviour of these valuable lakes as complex ecosystems. This paper will review more than a century of physical study of the Great Lakes. 相似文献
7.
Bernd Zolitschka 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):229-232
Annually laminated, non-glacial lake sediments from Lake Holzmaar (Eifel, western Germany) were investigated using large Merkt thin sections. The absolute age of varve intervals with variations in thickness and composition were correlated to climatic changes recorded by glacier fluctuations in the Alps. Back to 8800 years VT (varve time = varve years before 1950) glacier advances coincide with sedimentation rate minima; prior to 8800 years VT they coincide with sedimentation rate maxima. The early and middle Holocene sediments suggest a periodicity of about 1000 years for cold/warm cycles. A sequence of 512 varve-thickness measurements was subjected to spectral analysis. These provide apparent evidence for a 11-year sun-spot cycle.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program. 相似文献
8.
Peter J. Sousounis 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1993,64(3):261-290
Observations of lake-effect storms that occur over the Great Lakes region during late autumn and winter indicate a high sensitivity to ambient wind speed and direction. In this paper, a two-dimensional version of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) model is used to investigate the wind speed effects on lake-effect snowstorms that occur over the Great Lakes region.Theoretical initial conditions for stability, relative humidity, wind velocity, and lake/land temperature distribution are specified. Nine different experiments are performed using wind speeds ofU=0, 2, 4,..., 16 m s–1. The perturbation wind, temperature, and moisture fields for each experiment after 36 h of simulation are compared.It is determined that moderate (4–6 m s–1) wind speeds result in maximum precipitation (snowfall) on the lee shore of the model lake. Weak wind speeds (0U<4 m s–1) yield significantly higher snowfall amounts over the lake along with a spatially concentrated and intense response. Strong wind speeds (6<U16 m s–1), yield very little, if any, significant snowfall, although significant increases in cloudiness, temperature, and perturbation wind speed occur hundreds of kilometers downwind from the lake. 相似文献
9.
Abstract We have made a preliminary study of cloud‐to‐ground lightning over southern Ontario and the adjoining Great Lakes region. The lightning data set, using magnetic direction finding, is sufficiently accurate to study lightning climatology. Cloud‐to‐ground flash totals have been found for the three warm seasons 1989–91. A large variation in flash total, lightning‐day frequency and number of high flash density storms occurs over the area, with the maximum in southwestern Ontario. The area of the maximum also has a strong diurnal cycle and relatively few positive flashes. Several physical causes may contribute to this. Lake areas usually have slightly fewer flashes than nearby land areas and warm water usually has more flashes than cold water. The Great Lakes do produce more lightning than ocean areas. Convergence lines of lake breezes and other lake circulations can, however, be sites for storms with intense lightning. High surface temperature and moisture leads to an increase in lightning generation. Over land, upslope flow increases lightning‐producing storms and downslope flow decreases them. High flash density storms may be favoured by smooth rather than rough ground, and by open farmland rather than forest. On the other hand, there does not seem to be a clear urban effect increasing lightning in the Great Lakes 相似文献
10.
Quantitative estimates of full glacial temperatures in equatorial Africa from palynological data* 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
This paper presents a new reconstruction of the mean annual temperature obtained from a high altitude pollen sequence in equatorial Africa (3°28S, 29°34E, 2240 m). It has been achieved with an extended modern African reference data set by adding spectra from 228 new sites and using another selection for pollen taxa. The purpose of this paper is to test how the obtained temperature value depends upon the availability of modern analogues. The results are in good agreement with those previously published, reinforcing the validity of the method. The mean standard error is reduced by 0.3°C. The mean temperature for the Holocene appears + 1.4°C warmer than the present and the last glacial maximum (25-18 kyrs BP) cooling is better specified at – 3 ± 1.9° C, a conservative value, more consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature in the equatorial ocean.Contribution to Clima Locarno - Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program 相似文献
11.
Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Is the prospect of possible climate change relevant to water resources decisions being made today? And, if so, how ought that prospect be considered? These questions can be addressed by decision analysis, which we apply to two investments in the Great Lakes region: a regulatory structure for Lake Erie, and breakwaters to protect Presque Isle State Park, PA. These two decisions have the elements that potentially make climate change relevant: long lived, "one shot" investments; benefits or costs that are affected by climate-influenced variables; and irreversibilities. The decision analyses include the option of waiting to obtain better information, using Bayesian analysis to detect whether climate change has altered water supplies. The analyses find that beliefs about climate change can indeed affect optimal decisions. Furthermore, ignoring the possibility of climate change can lead to significant opportunity losses—in the cases here, as much as 10% or more of the construction cost. Yet the consequences of climate uncertainty for Great Lakes management do not appear to be qualitatively different from those of other risks, and thus do not deserve different treatment. The methods of sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, and decision analysis, all of which are encouraged under US federal guidelines for water planning, are applicable. We recommend increased use of decision trees and Bayesian analysis to consider not only climate change risks, but also other important social and environmental uncertainties. 相似文献
12.
A one-month experiment was performed at Amsterdam Island in January 1998, to investigate the factors controlling the short-term variations of atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMS) and its oxidation products in the mid-latitudes remote marine atmosphere. High mixing ratios of DMS, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) have been observed during this experiment, with mean concentrations of 395 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) (standard deviation, = 285, n = 500), 114 pptv ( = 125, n = 12) and 3 pptv ( = 1.2, n = 167), respectively. Wind speed and direction were identified as the major factors controlling atmospheric DMS levels. Changes in air temperature/air masses origin were found to strongly influence the dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO)/DMS and SO2/DMS molar ratios, in line with recent laboratory data. Methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO4
2–) mean concentrations in aerosols during this experiment were 12.2± 6.5 pptv (1, n=47) and 59 ± 33 pptv (1, n=47), respectively. Evidence of vertical entrainment was reported following frontal passages, with injection of moisture-poor, ozone-rich air. High MSA/ nss-SO4
2– molar ratios (mean 0.44) were calculated during these events. Finally following frontal passages, few spots in condensation nuclei (CN) concentration were also observed. 相似文献
13.
In 1900 the city of Chicago began diverting sizable amounts of water from Lake Michigan to move its sewage down the Illinois River. This diversion launched a series of continuing legal controversies involving Illinois as a defendant against claims by the federal government, various lake states, and Canada who wanted the diversion stopped or drastically reduced. During the past 96 years extended dry periods have lowered the lake levels. Using these dry periods as surrogates for future conditions, their effects on the past controversies were examined as analogs for what might occur as a result of climate change from an enhanced Greenhouse effect. The results reveal that changing socioeconomic factors including population growth will likely cause increased water use, and Chicago will seek additional water from the Great Lakes. New priorities for water use will emerge as in the past. Drier future conditions will likely lead to enhanced diversions from the Great Lakes to serve interests in and outside the basin. Future lower lake levels (reflecting a drier climate) will lead to conflicts related to existing and proposed diversions, and these conflicts would be exacerbated by the consequences of global warming. In any event, a warmer, drier climatic regime will challenge existing laws and institutions for dealing with Great Lakes water issues. 相似文献
14.
Recent studies of potential climatic change on Great Lakes fisheries (e.g. Meisner , 1987; Magnuson , 1990; Regieret al., 1990) and our general ignorance of the natural variability of the basic physical properties of the Great Lakes (McCormick, 1990) have demonstrated the need for a long-term observation program which is representative of the lake-wide environment. In April 1990 a site was established in Lake Michigan to continuously monitor the offshore thermal structure and vertical velocity profile. The site is located near the center of the lake's southern basin in 160 m of water. Temperature is measured at 16 depths (winter) to 28 depths (summer), and the horizontal velocity components are measured at 5 levels which allows us to characterize the offshore environment with high temporal resolution. The goals of this effort are to provide basic physical measurements to better describe the flow of energy through the lake ecosystem and to provide a basis against which future change can be better gauged. 相似文献
15.
Abstract This study reports on the implementation of an interactive mixed‐layer/thermodynamic‐ice lake model coupled with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). For this application the CRCM, which uses a grid mesh of 45 km on a polar stereographic projection, 10 vertical levels, and a timestep of 15 min, is nested with the second generation Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated output. A numerical simulation of the climate of eastern North America, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, is then performed in order to evaluate the coupled model. The lakes are represented by a “mixed layer” model to simulate the evolution of the surface water temperature, and a thermodynamic ice model to simulate evolution of the ice cover. The mixed‐layer depth is allowed to vary spatially. Lake‐ice leads are parametrized as a function of ice thickness based on observations. Results from a 5‐year integration show that the coupled CRCM/lake model is capable of simulating the seasonal evolution of surface temperature and ice cover in the Great Lakes. When compared with lake climatology, the simulated mean surface water temperature agrees within 0.12°C on average. The seasonal evolution of the lake‐ice cover is realistic but the model tends to underestimate the monthly mean ice concentration on average. The simulated winter lake‐induced precipitation is also shown, and snow accumulation patterns on downwind shores of the lakes are found to be realistic when compared with observations. 相似文献
16.
On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
A new method is proposed to estimate future net basin supplies and lake levels for the Laurentian Great Lakes based on GCM projections of global climate change. The method first dynamically downscales the GCM simulation with a regional climate model, and then bias—corrects the simulated net basin supply in order to be used directly in a river—routing/lake level scheme. This technique addresses two weaknesses in the traditional approach, whereby observed sequences of climate variables are perturbed with fixed ratios or differences derived directly from GCMs in order to run evaporation and runoff models. Specifically, (1) land surface—atmosphere feedback processes are represented, and (2) changes in variability can be analyzed with the new approach. The method is demonstrated with a single, high resolution simulation, where small changes in future mean lake levels for all the upper Great Lakes are found, and an increase in seasonal range—especially for Lake Superior—is indicated. Analysis of a small ensemble of eight lower resolution regional climate model simulations supports these findings. In addition, a direct comparison with the traditional approach based on the same GCM projections used as the driving simulations in this ensemble shows that the new method indicates smaller declines in level for all the upper Great Lakes than has been reported previously based on the traditional method, though median differences are only a few centimetres in each case. 相似文献
17.
Great Lakes Hydrology Under Transposed Climates 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Thomas E. Croley II Frank H. Quinn Kenneth E. Kunkel Stanley a. Changnon 《Climatic change》1998,38(4):405-433
Historical climates, based on 43 years of daily data from areas south and southwest of the Great Lakes, were used to examine the hydrological response of the Great Lakes to warmer climates. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory used their conceptual models for simulating moisture storages in, and runoff from, the 121 watersheds draining into the Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in, and evaporation from, each lake. This transposition of actual climates incorporates natural changes in variability and timing within the existing climate; this is not true for General Circulation Model-generated corrections applied to existing historical data in many other impact studies. The transposed climates lead to higher and more variable over-land evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture and runoff with earlier runoff peaks since the snow pack is reduced up to 100%. Water temperatures increase and peak earlier. Heat resident in the deep lakes increases throughout the year. Buoyancy-driven water column turnover frequency drops and lake evaporation increases and spreads more throughout the annual cycle. The response of runoff to temperature and precipitation changes is coherent among the lakes and varies quasi-linearly over a wide range of temperature changes, some well beyond the range of current GCM predictions for doubled CO2 conditions. 相似文献
18.
Thomas E. Croley II 《Climatic change》1990,17(1):27-47
The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory has developed conceptual daily models for simulating moisture storages in and runoff from the 121 watersheds draining into the Laurentian Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in and evaporation from each lake. We combine these components as net basin supplies for each lake to consider climate change scenarios developed from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). Recent scenarios of a doubling of atmospheric Co2, available from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Oregon State University are considered by making changes in historical meteorological data similar to the changes observed in the GCMs, observing the impact of the changed data in the model outputs, and comparing outputs to model results using unchanged data, representing comparison to an unchanged atmosphere. This study indicates a 23 to 51% reduction in net basin supplies to all the Great Lakes; there is significant variation in the components of these supplies among the three GCMs. The basins various moisture storages become dryer and the lakes are warmer with associated hydrological impacts.GLERL Contribution NO. 646. 相似文献
19.
20.
P Ciais J R Petit J Jouzel C Lorius N I Barkov V Lipenkov V Nicolaïev 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):169-177
In the interpretation of the Antarctic deep ice-core data, little attention has been given to the Holocene part of the records. As far as translation of the stable isotope content in terms of temperature is concerned, this can be understood because expected temperature changes may be obscured by isotopic noise of various origins and because no 14C dating has yet been available for this type of sequence. In this article, we focus on the Dome C and Vostok cores and on a new 850-m long ice core drilled out at Komsomolskaïa by the Soviet Antarctic Expeditions. These three sites are located in East Antarctica, on the Antarctic plateau, in a region essentially undisturbed by ice-flow conditions, so that their detailed intercomparison may allow us to identify the climatically significant isotopic signal. Our results compare well with the proximal records of Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and support the existence of a warmer climatic optimum between 10 and 6 ka y BP. Maximum temperatures are reached just at the end of the last deglaciation, which confirms previous observations at high latitudes, in contrast with later dates for the Atlantic and hypsithermal optima in Europe and North America.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program 相似文献