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1.
The North-Andean subduction zone generates recurrent tsunamigenic earthquakes. The seismicity is usually considered to be segmented because of different specific morphological features of the Nazca Plate driving the subduction motion. Most of the recent powerful earthquakes in the margin were located in its northern part. To the south, the region of the Gulf of Guayaquil, only (undocumented) three events in 1901, 1933 and 1953 were possibly powerful and tsunamigenic. Here we are interested in the tsunami signature due to local seismicity. Two realistic earthquake scenarios (Mw = 7 and Mw = 7.5) taking into account the hypothesized segmentation of the area are proposed. Their return period is supposed to be intra-centenary. Then, a larger magnitude unsegmented Mw = 8 scenario is computed (half-millennium return period). The interior of the Gulf of Guayaquil as well as the Santa Elena Peninsula are sheltered areas including numerous coastal infrastructures and the city of Guayaquil. It is predicted that potential flooding would occur at high tide only for both segmented and unsegmented scenarios in (1) south of Playas with however only a few centimeters of wave height and (2) Chanduy (a few meters). Both are important zones of coastal farms.  相似文献   

2.
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.  相似文献   

3.
As a first step towards the development of inundation maps for the northwestern Indian Ocean, we simulated the near-field inundation of two large tsunami in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). The tsunami scenarios were based on large historical earthquakes in the region. The first scenario included the rupture of about 500 km of the plate boundary in the eastern MSZ, featuring a moment magnitude of Mw 8.6. The second scenario involved the full rupture of the plate boundary resulting from a Mw 9 earthquake. For each scenario, the distribution of tsunami wave height along the coastlines of the region is presented. Also, detailed runup modeling was performed at four main coastal cities in the region for the second scenario. To investigate the possible effect of splay fault branching on tsunami wave height, a hypothetical splay fault was modeled which showed that it can locally increase the maximum wave height by a factor of 2. Our results showed that the two tsunami scenarios produce a runup height of 12-18 m and 24-30 m, respectively. For the second scenario, the modeled inundation distance was between 1 and 5 km.  相似文献   

4.
The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M S(40) and M S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.  相似文献   

5.
Two earthquakes were recorded by 20 ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) deployed in the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) area during a three-dimensional seismic survey in 2010. Their magnitudes (both M b = 4.4) and hypocenters have been determined by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) only using land seismic stations onset times. After the frequency analysis and the band-pass filtering of the OBSs’ data, 7 and 13 P-phase onset times from OBSs were successfully picked for these two events, respectively. Then these two events were relocated by HYPOSAT program with onset times together from OBSs and land seismic stations using different velocity models. These relocation experiments confirm both the importance of adding OBSs’ onset data and the need to apply a local oceanic velocity model for the location of these two events happened on the SWIR. This research has accumulated a wealth of experience for earthquakes observation and research using OBSs in the ocean.  相似文献   

6.
We present here new data from the MALISAR surveys that focus on two areas of the northern Ligurian margin where we reveal recent and active deformation. A set of N60°E scarps that are oblique to the margin is seen at the foot of the continental slope. These correspond to cumulated reverse-strike slip faulting that is consistent with the present-day kinematics of earthquakes. At the north-western margin, the Marcel Fault appears at the surface as a 10-km-long scarp trending N60°E. Several earthquakes of moderate magnitude (3.8 < ML < 4.6) have focal mechanisms consistent with the geometry and the kinematics of, and have been located around, the Marcel Fault. At the north-eastern margin, offshore of Imperia, the major feature is a large promontory that is bound by a network of N60°E faults on its southern side. The structures and the deflection of the drainage network are consistent with a recent uplift of the Imperia Promontory. No surface ruptures have been identified in the epicentre area of the 1887 Ligurian earthquake (the major historical regional event: MW ~6.5?C6.7), although the Imperia Fault network has the necessary characteristics to account for this earthquake. Therefore, from the present study, we propose that the rupture, as a reverse-strike slip faulting of a few or all of the segments belonging to the Imperia Fault network, was the source of the 1887 event. These MALISAR data have allowed identification of an 80-km-long transpressive system of Plio-Quaternary faults. The question of the potential activation of all of these faults during a single event is now of major concern, which has led to reappraisal of the regional seismic hazard as moderate to high.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

The characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska and the relative significance of earthquake sources for establishing seismic design inputs at a typical site for engineering purposes are discussed. Earthquake sources in the complex tectonic environment can be divided into two groups: (a) a subduction zone that underlies the entire region (maximum magnitude M = 8.5); and (b) individual thrust and strike‐slip faults associated with the plate motions (maximum magnitude M = 6 to 7.5). The sources of either group and individual earthquake events can be represented as planar surfaces for consistency with the physical process and a mathematically tractable computational scheme.

Although the area is very active seismically, the degree of activity of individual sources varies significantly. Therefore, even for sources with the same maximum earthquakes, different magnitudes may apply for a selected design return period. The area is considered to be a “seismic gap.”; No great earthquakes have occurred in nearly 80 years. Estimates based on a temporally varying seismic function such as the semi‐Markov model indicate that the probability of occurrence of a great earthquake in the near future is significantly higher than the average probability inferred from a statistical analysis of historical seismicity data of the entire region.

Separate attenuation relationships should be used for calculating ground motions due to earthquakes on the dipping subduction zone in the northern portion of the gulf. The dominant earthquake source for almost the entire Gulf of Alaska region is the subduction zone that contributes over 80 percent of the seismic exposure at a typical site. The dominant magnitude range is Ms = 6.5 to 7.5. “Gap filling”; earthquakes (Ms = 7.5 to 8.25) contribute a little over a third of the seismic exposure at a typical site. Deterministic assessments of ground motion values using the maximum earthquake on the subduction zone at the closest distance yield values significantly higher than those calculated for even 500‐year return periods. Estimated 100‐year return period accelerations in the area range from 180 to 340 cm/sec2.  相似文献   

8.
The features of the seismic regime before the strongest earthquakes of Taiwan in the late 20th (Chi-Chi on September 21, 1999, Mw = 7.6) and the early 21st century (March 31, 2002, Mw = 7.4) are analyzed. Based on 1990–1999 and 1994–2002 data, respectively, retrospective analysis of three seismic regime parameters are studied: the total annual number of earthquakes NΣ in the range of ML = 2.5–5.5 and Mw = 3.0–7.0; the total annual quantity of released seismic energy ΣE, J; and angular coefficient b of earthquake recurrence graphs. Two explicit subperiods are revealed in the course of the seismic regime: quiescence in 1990–1996 before the Chi-Chi earthquake and in 1994–1997 before the March 2002 earthquake; in 1997–1999 and 1998–2002, respectively, seismic activation is observed. Due to the predominance of weak earthquakes during the Chi-Chi earthquake preparation, factor b appeared relatively higher (–1.16 on average); in contrast, before the March 2002 earthquake, due to the occurrence of foreshocks with Mw = 6.8–7.0, the factor b values appeared relatively lower (–0.55 and–0.74 for the quiescence and activation subperiods, respectively). Despite the fundamental difference in the seismotectonic situation between the domains where two mainshocks occurred and significantly difference energy ranges of the initial seismic events, the analysis results are similar for both earthquakes. In both cases, the mainshock occurred at the peak of released energy, which can be considered a coincidence. Solid verification of this positive tendency requires the accumulation of seismological statistics.  相似文献   

9.
Three time-series sediment traps were deployed in the Japan Trench at 40°26′N, 144°28′E, from October 1994 to May 1995. The depths were approximately 1, 4.2 and 6.8 km and the water depth was 7150 m. There were large mass fluxes in spring at 1 and 4.2 km depths, whereas increased fluxes appeared from 27 December 1994 to 29 January 1995, at 4.2 and 6.8 km depths. The 1994 Sanriku-Oki earthquake (Mw=7.7) occurred on 28 December 1994, at 40°27′N, 143°43′E, adjacent to the study site. Distinct increases in non-biogenic material were observed at both 4.2 and 6.8 km just after the earthquake; the material seems to have originated from the surface sediments, though differing Mn/Al of particulate materials at the two depths imply a difference in their source areas. Analysis indicates that the main part of the increased particulate fluxes at 6.8 km depth derived from the sediment on the eastern slope of the Japan Trench.  相似文献   

10.
台湾岛1999年9月21日在南投发生7.6级地震前有出现地震条带现象,在2005年工作的基础上继续用地震条带方法对2004年12月台东海外7.0级地震、2006年12月高雄海外7.2级地震和2016年2月6日高雄6.7级地震前的地震图像进行分析发现,这3次地震前也存在ML5.5级以上地震条带现象,说明近年来台湾岛及邻近海域强地震前都有地震条带出现.对这些条带形成的原因进行分析后认为:EN向地震条带是受菲律宾板块挤压形成的,沿台湾岛东部海岸排列的地震条带是受台湾岛东部的地震断层影响形成的,沿琉球海沟方向排列的地震条带是受琉球海沟断裂带影响形成的.研究结果对台湾岛及邻近海域的地震预报具有参考意义.  相似文献   

11.
2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。  相似文献   

12.
This study delineates the formation of a warm pool (>34°C) of air to the west (downwind) of the active volcano of the Barren Island during October–November 2005. Barren Island is located in the Sumatra–Andaman region, about 135 km east of Port Blair, and lies within the Burma microplate, the southern tip of which experienced a submarine earthquake (M w 9.3) causing a tsunami in December 2004. Barren Island is the only volcano, which has shown sustained eruptive activity since shortly after the Great Sumatran Earthquake of December 2004. Our observations require further corroboration to relate how submarine earthquakes activate volcanoes and how far these thermal emissions influence climate changes. Because it links global warming and climate changes to the frequent emissions from a volcano activated by submarine earthquakes, this case study is of special interest to the earth-ocean-atmosphere sciences community.  相似文献   

13.
Some characteristics of seismicity in Southern California are studied. It is found that ring-shaped seismicity structures with threshold magnitudes Mth of 4.1, 4.1, and 3.8 formed prior to three large (M w > 7.0) earthquakes in 1992, 1999, and 2010, respectively. The sizes of these structures are several times smaller than for intracontinental strike-slip events with similar magnitudes. Two ring-shaped structures are identified in areas east of the city of Los Angeles, where relatively large earthquakes have not occurred for at least 150 years. The magnitudes of large events which can occur in the areas of these structures are estimated on the basis of the previously obtained correlation dependence of ring sizes on magnitudes of the strike-slip earthquakes. Large events with magnitudes of M w = 6.9 ± 0.2 and M w = 8.6 ± 0.2 can occur in the area to the east of the city of Los Angeles and in the rupture zone of the 1857 great Fort Tejon earthquake, respectively. We believe that ring-structure formation, similarly to the other regions, is connected with deep-seated fluid migration.  相似文献   

14.
The Japanese islands are positioned near the subduction zones, and large earthquakes have repeatedly occurred in marine areas around Japan. However, the number of permanent earthquake observatories in the oceans is quite limited. It is important for understanding generation of large earthquakes to observe seismic activities on the seafloor just above these seismogenic zones. An ocean bottom cabled seismometer (OBCS) is the best solution because data can be collected in real-time. We have developed a new compact OBCS system. A developed system is controlled by a microprocessor, and signals from accelerometers are 24-bit digitized. Clock is delivered from the global positioning system receiver on a landing station using a simple dedicated line. Data collected at each cabled seismometer (CS) are transmitted using standard Internet Protocol to landing stations. The network configuration of the system adopts two dual methods. We installed the first practical OBCS system in the Japan Sea, where large earthquakes occurred in past. The first OBCS system has a total length of 25 km and 4 stations with 5 km interval. Installation was carried out in August 2010. The CSs and single armored optical submarine cable were buried 1 m below the seafloor to avoid a conflict with fishing activity. The data are stored on a landing station and sent to Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo by using the Internet. After the installation, data are being collected continuously. According to burial of the CSs, seismic ambient noises are smaller than those observed on seafloor.  相似文献   

15.
The source mechanism of the tsunami generated by the earthquake of 17 October, 1966 off the coast of central Peru was inferred by studying the seismic and oceanic phenomena associated with this event. The seismic mechanism was deduced from geologic structure, seismic intensities, energy releases, spatial distribution of aftershocks, and fault-plane solutions. Using this information and empirical relationships of seismic parameters, the fault length, azimuthal orientation of the tsunamigenic area, and initial tsunami height, were obtained. From the tsunami arrival times at selected stations and from a reverse wave-refraction technique, the limits of the tsunami-generating area were estimated. Using these source dimensions, an estimate of the tsunami energy was obtained. The spatial distribution of aftershocks associated with the main earthquake and the earthquake strain-release pattern correlated well with known seismotectonic trends and the seismic-velocity structure anomalies which are characteristic of thrust fault systems at continent-ocean boundaries. The investigation revealed that the tsunamigenic area was on the continental shelf off Peru, northwest of Lima, in the western part of an active seismic belt between the Andean Mountain block and the Peru-Chile trench. This area is considered to be one of three distinct seismic zones in the Peruvian upper mantle and has been responsible for a number of tsunamigenic earthquakes within recorded history. The aftershock distribution and strain-release patterns suggest that the earthquake fault was a seaward extension of a fault system which has a pronounced surface expression in the Tertiary formations of the area near Ancon, Peru. The limits of the tectonic displacements and the tsunami-generating area were determined by a reverse wave-refraction method, refracting waves from Chimbote, Callao-Lima, San Juan, and Honolulu. The investigation revealed that the tsunami was generated by displacements of crustal blocks with a total area of 13,000 sq. km. Seismic and water motion data indicated that the uplifted portion of the crustal block was on the continental side of the rift. The energy of the main earthquake was estimated to be 1.122·1023 ergs. The energy of the aftershocks was estimated to be 2.357·1020 ergs. The tsunami energy was calculated to be 6.8·1019 ergs, or 11,650 of the earthquake energy.  相似文献   

16.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构...  相似文献   

17.
Signals from the tsunami waves induced by the March 11, 2011 moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and from subsequent resonances were detected as radial velocity variability by a high-frequency ocean surface radar (HF radar) installed on the eastern coast of the Kii Channel, at a range of about 1000 km from the epicenter along the eastern to southern coasts of Honshu Island. A time–distance diagram of band-passed (9–200 min) radial velocity along the beam reveals that the tsunami waves propagated from the continental shelf slope to the inner channel as progressive waves for the first three waves, and then natural oscillations were excited by the waves; and that the direction of the tsunami wave propagation and the axis of the natural oscillations differed from that of the radar beam. In addition, spectral analyses of the radial velocities and sea surface heights obtained in the channel and on the continental shelf slope suggest complex natural oscillation modes excited by the tsunami waves.  相似文献   

18.
We conducted a detailed investigation of seismic activity from January 2011 to February 2013 along the Nankai trough off the Kii Peninsula, central Japan, by using data obtained from the DONET ocean-bottom observation network. The hypocenters are mostly within the subducting Philippine Sea (PHS) plate, although a few are along the plate boundary or in the sedimentary wedge below the Kumano forearc basin. The seismic activity can be separated into events above and below 20 km depth, which corresponds approximately to the Moho. The hypocenter distributions are distinctly different for these groups. The seismic activity in the oceanic crust can be further separated into three clusters. Most of the seismic activity recorded in our data represents aftershocks of the 2004 off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes (M JMA = 7.1, 7.4, and 6.5), which occurred in the PHS plate. The hypocenter distribution in the oceanic crust correlates well with the location of the Paleo-Zenisu ridge, which is formed by a chain of seamounts that is subducting beneath the forearc basin. The hypocenters in the uppermost mantle are aligned on a plane dipping to the southeast, consistent with the existence of a thrust fault cutting through the lithosphere of the oceanic plate. The focal mechanisms of the earthquakes show that the axis of compressive stress in the PHS plate is oriented N–S, almost perpendicular to the direction of plate convergence, indicating a complex tectonic regime in this region. These results suggest that intraplate shortening may be occurring in the subducting oceanic plate.  相似文献   

19.
2017年9月8日4时49分（UTC），墨西哥瓦哈卡州沿岸海域（15.21°N，93.64°W）发生Mw8.2级地震，震源深度30 km。强震在该海域引发海啸，海啸对震源附近数百千米范围内造成了严重影响。位于太平洋上的多个海啸监测网络捕捉到了海啸信号并详细记录了此次海啸的传播过程。本文选用了近场2个DART浮标和6个验潮站的水位数据，通过潮汐调和分析和滤波分离出海啸信号，对近场海啸特征值进行了统计分析，并采用小波变换分析方法进一步分析了海啸的波频特征。基于Okada弹性位错理论断层模型计算得到了强震引发的海底形变分布，并采用MOST海啸模式对本次海啸事件近场传播特征进行了模拟，模拟结果与观测吻合较好。最后，基于实测和模拟结果，详细分析了此次地震海啸的近场分布特征，发现除受海啸源的强度和几何分布特征影响外，近岸海啸波还主要受地形特征控制，在与特定地形相互作用后波幅产生放大效应，会进一步加剧海啸造成的灾害。  相似文献   

20.
Seismicity characteristics in the areas of Sarez Lake and the Nurek water reservoir are studied. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges (0–33 and 34–70 km) formed prior to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015 (M w = 7.2). Seismicity rings cross each other near the Usoi Dam, which formed after the strong earthquake in 1911 and led to the formation of Sarez Lake, and near the epicenter of the Pamir earthquake. In addition, three out of the four strongest events (М ≥ 6.0) recorded in the Pamir region at depths of more than 70 km since 1950 have occurred near Sarez Lake. An aggregate of the data allows us to conclude that the Pamir earthquake, despite its very large energy, refers to events related to induced seismicity. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges also formed in the Nurek water reservoir area. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the self-organization processes of a geological system, which result in the ascent of deep-seated fluids. In this respect, the lithosphere is gradually adapting to the additional load related to the filling of the water reservoir. The difference between Nurek Dam (and many other hydroelectric power stations as well) and Usoi Dam is the permanent vibration in the former case due to water falling from a height of more than 200 m. Such an effect can lead to gradual stress dissipation, resulting in the occurrence of much weaker events when compared to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015, in the areas of artificial water reservoirs.  相似文献   

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