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1.
Migration, remittances and regional development in Southern Morocco   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Hein de Haas 《Geoforum》2006,37(4):565-580
Although Morocco has evolved into one of the world’s leading emigration countries, the systematic study of the developmental impact of migration in migrant-sending regions in Morocco and the Maghreb has been relatively neglected after a temporary surge of pessimistic studies in the 1970s. Empirical work from this region has therefore been largely absent from the lively theoretical debate on migration and development. This study attempts to re-establish this link through qualitative research and a survey among 507 non-migrant, internal and international migrant households in the Moroccan Todgha oasis. The study shows that international migration and remittances have significantly contributed to economic development, improved standards of living and enabled the partial emancipation of subaltern ethnic groups. International migrant households invest more than others in housing, agriculture and other enterprises. Risk spreading and income stabilisation rather than increasing incomes seem to be the prime rationale behind internal migration, although internal migration tends to facilitate the education and international migration of younger household members. Remittance expenditure and investments have stimulated the diversifying and urbanising regional economy and have triggered a counter-flow of “reverse” internal migration. However, several structural constraints prevent the high development potential of migration from being fully realised.  相似文献   

2.
Land cover and vegetation in Lake Baikal basin (LBB) are considered to be highly susceptible to climate change. However, there is less information on the change trends in both climate and land cover in LBB and thus less understanding of the watershed sensitivity and adaptability to climate change. Here we identified the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in climate (from 1979 to 2016), land cover, and vegetation (from 2000 to 2010) in the LBB. During the past 40 years, there was a little increase in precipitation while air temperature has increased by 1.4 °C. During the past 10 years, land cover has changed significantly. Herein grassland, water bodies, permanent snow, and ice decreased by 485.40 km2, 161.55 km2 and 2.83 km2, respectively. However, forest and wetland increased by 111.40 km2 and 202.90 km2, respectively. About 83.67 km2 area of water bodies has been converted into the wetland. Also, there was a significant change in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the NDVI maximum value was 1 in 2000, decreased to 0.9 in 2010. Evidently, it was in the mountainous areas and in the river basin that the vegetation shifted. Our findings have implications for predicting the safety of water resources and water eco-environment in LBB under global change.  相似文献   

3.
The 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 damaged the ecology of northwestern Sichuan, China. This study assessed ecological changes within a few years of the earthquake through satellite observations of vegetation dynamics in the earthquake area. As an ecological indicator, the fractional vegetation cover was extracted using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index based on multi-year Landsat images and was validated using airborne images. We found that the entire mountainous disaster area had recovered by 68.45 % 3 years after the 2008 earthquake. After rapid recovery of vegetation in 2009, the recovery process slowed. The vegetation recovery rate (VRR) in the area heavily damaged by landslides was slightly lower but nearly that of the entire disaster area. In addition, because of differences in the proportions of soil and rock in the damaged areas, recovery of vegetation in the southwest portion of the study area was slower than in the northeast areas. Topographic analysis of vegetation recovery patterns indicated that damage to vegetation was closely related to slope, while recovery of vegetation was more sensitive to elevation. The landscape analysis showed that the recovery rate (65.21 %) of the excellent vegetation cover type was slower than the overall VRR. This study suggests that vegetation recovery is a slow ecological process and that ecological restoration should be implemented in mountainous regions affected by the earthquake.  相似文献   

4.
The spatial distribution of vegetation pattern and vegetation cover fraction (VCF) was quantified with remote sensing data in the Hailiutu River basin, a semiarid area in North China. The moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer normalized different vegetation index (NDVI) values for 4 years from 2008 to 2011 and field observation data were used to assess the impact of climate factors, landform and depth to water table on vegetation distribution at large scale. In the VCF map, 74 % of the study area is covered with low and low–medium density vegetation, 24 % of the catchment is occupied by medium–high and high-density vegetation, and 2 % of area is bare soil. The relationship between NDVI and climate factors indicated that NDVI is correlated with relative humidity and precipitation. In the river catchment, NDVI increases gradually from landform of sand dune, eolian sand soil to river valley; 92.4 % of low NDVI from 0.15 to 0.3 is mostly distributed in sand dunes and the vegetation type is shrubs. Crops, shrubs and some dry willows dominate in eolian sand soil and 82.5 % of the NDVI varies between 0.2 and 0.35. In the river valley, 70.4 % of NDVI ranges between 0.25 and 0.4, and grass, dry willow and some crops are the main plants. Shrubs development of Korshinsk peashrub and Salix psammophila are dependent on groundwater by analyzing NDVI response to groundwater depth. However, NDVI of Artemisia desertorum had little sensitivity to groundwater.  相似文献   

5.
Historical and exact information about the land use/land cover change is very important for regional sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to determine the rapid changes in land use/land cover (LULC) pattern due to agriculture expansion, environmental calamities such as flood and government policies over Upper Narmada basin, India. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite images for years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 were used to analyze and monitor the changes in LULC with an overall accuracy of more than 85%. Results revealed a potential decrease in natural vegetation (? 9.52%) due to the expansion of settlement (+ 0.52%) and cropland (+ 9.43%) from 1990 to 2015. In the present study, Cellular Automata and Markov (CA–Markov), an integrated tool was used to project the short-term LULC map of year 2030. The projected LULC (2030) indicated the expansion of built-up area along with the cropland and degradation in the vegetation area. The outcomes from the study can help as a guiding tool for protection of natural vegetation and the management of the built-up area. Additionally, it will help in devising the strategies to utilize every bit of land in the study area for decision makers.  相似文献   

6.
Biological soil crusts (BSCs) perform essential ecosystem functions in arid and semi-arid ecosystems worldwide. The formation, development, and distribution of BSCs are influenced by changes in multiple environmental factors, including changes in the vascular plant community. The influence of changes in vegetation factors on BSC cover in 8-, 12-, and 16-year-old rehabilitated grasslands were studied in the hilly area of the Chinese Loess Plateau. The rate of degradation of BSCs underneath litter (P < 0.01) and the degradation cover of BSCs (P < 0.05) differed significantly between the 8- and 16-year-old successions. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that the main vegetation factors influencing the dynamics of BSC cover differed among the 8-, 12-, and 16-year-old rehabilitated grasslands. Basal cover, phytomass, and litter cover were the main vegetation factors influencing the dynamics of BSC cover on 8-year-old rehabilitated grassland. Phytomass, litter thickness, and litter cover were the main factors influencing the dynamics of BSC cover on 12-year-old rehabilitated grassland. On 16-year-old rehabilitated grassland, Pielou evenness index, litter thickness, and litter biomass were the main vegetation factors influencing degradation of BSC cover underneath litter, whereas basal cover, litter thickness, and litter biomass were the main vegetation factors influencing the degradation cover of BSCs. At particular stages of herbaceous succession, vegetation factors can have a large influence on changes in the community’s basal cover and litter, which are key factors influencing changes in BSC cover. The degradation of BSCs underneath litter may be a result of complicated eco-physiological processes.  相似文献   

7.
This study discusses vegetation recovery and land cover change with reference to the Chiufenershan landslide, a major disaster caused by the Chichi earthquake, 21 September 1999. Image classification technology, landscape indicators from multi-temporal remotely sensed data and a field survey provide the data. Image differencing methods and threshold values coupled with pre- and post-quake satellite images were used. Multi-temporal images in combination with various vegetation indices were drawn on to classify land cover patterns and discuss differences and suitability of indices. Landscape indicators and field investigations fed into an investigation of vegetation recovery and landscape change. The study results show that the best image classification system is original wavebands coupled with a cropping management factor index (CMFI). The land cover analysis shows that areas of forest and grass are increasing and areas of landslide are decreasing. From the field investigation, because the left and right sides of the landslide area were not disturbed by the earthquake, their calculated similarity index is the highest (30.08%). Miscanthus floridulus is the most dominant pioneer plant at the landslide collapse area with an importance value index (IVI) of 63.6%.  相似文献   

8.
Despite the growing recognition that poverty and environmental degradation remain a threat to achieving sustainable development goals, poverty–environment relationship is rarely explored. Crucial is the changing geography of the Lake Bosomtwe basin of Ghana. In this paper we examine how intensive and extensive fishing and farming in the name of livelihood sustainability, poverty reduction and human well-being undermine ecological health within the lake basin by subjecting data collected from 250 respondents to factor analysis. From a geo-referenced and processed classification of remotely sensed and GIS images over three periods using the maximum likelihood classifier algorithm, the results showed that, built up areas within the lake basin increased from 543.64 ha in 1986 to 7682.97 ha in 2008. Dense forest and rangeland decreased from 8698.95 and 22,660.88 ha over the same period to 1416.33 and 8577.99 ha in 2008 respectively. Other indicators such as water levels and fish stock also saw drastic reduction. The results further showed that major changes in the ecological landscape of the basin over the years are the outcomes of both direct and indirect drivers such as slash and burn agriculture, unregulated development of tourism facilities, overfishing, use of illegal fishing gear, poverty, annual overturn, climate change, market and institutional failures. Hence, a paradigm shift from the traditional site level forest restoration efforts to a landscape level, and a “conservation first principle” as a top priority in planning for the future, as well as focus on non-farm activities to reduce pressure on the natural capital are required.  相似文献   

9.
In India, as a result of development, the demand for water is increasing both in urban and rural areas. This may increase tensions and disputes over sharing of water resources. For water demand management, it is crucial to know the details of actual water use on a household level. Therefore, this paper explores the pattern of domestic water consumption in semi-arid Dhani Mohabbatpur village of Hisar district in Haryana state of India, to improve the understanding of how local communities in the region relate to water, based on questionnaires and interview surveys of 763 households. The study has examined the households daily and activity wise water consumption, sources, quality, duration, frequency of water supply, distance of different sources and the level of awareness about rainwater harvesting. Results of the study revealed that the daily average water consumption for the village was found to be 117.0 l per person per capita per day (SD = 35.8). Washing of clothes consumes the highest amount of water, whereas 85 % of the households are using government water supplies with very safe water quality. However, 77 % households are not satisfied with duration of water supply and 86 % do not have awareness about rainwater harvesting technology. This needs to be addressed immediately by changing public perception through media and by organizing public awareness programs. It is hoped that the results of the study would benefit the policy and planning executives in India in optimizing the existing water resources for rural development.  相似文献   

10.
The sustainability of water resources mainly depends on planning and management of land use; a small change in it may affect water yield largely, as both are linked through relevant hydrological processes, explicitly. However, human activities, especially a significant increase in population, in-migration and accelerated socio-economic activities, are constantly modifying the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. The impact of such changes in LULC on the hydrological regime of a basin is of widespread concern and a great challenge to the water resource engineers. While studying these impacts, the issue that prevails is the selection of a hydrological model that may be able to accommodate spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin with higher accuracy. Therefore, in the present study, the capabilities of variable infiltration capacity hydrological model to hydrologically simulate the basin under varying LULC scenarios have been investigated. For the present analysis, the Pennar River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, which falls under a water scarce region in India, has been chosen. The water balance components such as runoff potential, evapotranspiration (ET) and baseflow of Pennar Basin have been simulated under different LULC scenarios to study the impact of change on hydrological regime of a basin. Majorly, increase in built-up (13.94% approx.) and decrease in deciduous forest cover (2.44%) are the significant changes observed in the basin during the last three decades. It was found that the impact of LULC change on hydrology is balancing out at basin scale (considering the entire basin, while routing the runoff at the basin outlet). Therefore, an analysis on spatial variation in each of the water balance components considered in the study was done at grid scale. It was observed that the impact of LULC is considerable spatially at grid level, and the maximum increase of 265 mm (1985–2005) and the decrease of 48 mm (1985–1995) in runoff generation at grid were estimated. On the contrary, ET component showed the maximum increase of 400 and decrease of 570 mm under different LULC change scenario. Similarly, in the base flow parameter, an increase of 70 mm and the decrease of 100 mm were observed. It was noticed that the upper basin is showing an increasing trend in almost all hydrological components as compared to the lower basin. Based on this basin scale study, it was concluded that change in the land cover alters the hydrology; however, it needs to be studied at finer spatial scale rather than the entire basin as a whole. The information like the spatial variation in hydrological components may be very useful for local authority and decision-makers to plan mitigation strategies accordingly.  相似文献   

11.
Desertification is the major environmental threat in the arid and semiarid regions. The soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) was used as an indicator to monitor the desertification change in Egypt. A multi-temporal satellite data of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer were used to estimate SAVI and land surface temperature. Also, Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 and climatic data were used for the analysis. This research focuses on assessing the trend of the vegetation cover change in the seasons of January, March, June, September, and December for the years 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011. The magnitude of the vegetation cover change in periods 2002–2005, 2005–2008, and 2008–2011 at ≤100 and >100 m elevation was analyzed. A major increase in the vegetation cover that occurred in the period 2002–2005 was about 3,400 km2, as a result of two national megaprojects (Toshka Project and El-Salam Canal). In contrast, vegetation cover decreased by 5,500 km2 in March during the period 2005–2008, coinciding with the period when the management of the megaprojects failed. Vegetation cover changed again by 1,500 km2 in the period of 2008–2011, and the vegetated areas in the Nile Delta were affected by the sea level rising which was responsible for the soil salinization. Three sites were chosen in this investigation (Kom Ombo, El-Oweinat, and Nile Delta) in order to observe the difference of desertification dynamics and to understand the relationship between the vegetation cover distribution and other environmental variables. Anti-desertification policies and advanced agricultural management are highly required in Egypt to decrease any environmental crises and food shortage.  相似文献   

12.
Empirical multivariate predictive models represent an important tool to estimate gully erosion susceptibility. Topography, lithology, climate, land use and vegetation cover are commonly used as input for these approaches. In this paper, two multivariate predictive models were generated for two gully erosion processes in San Giorgio basin (Italy) and Mula River basin (Spain) using only topographical attributes as independent variables. Initially, nine models (five for San Giorgio and four for Mula) with pixel sizes ranging from 2 to 50 m were generated, and validation statistics were calculated to estimate the optimal pixel size. The best models were selected based on model performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve and the generalized cross-validation. The best pixel size was 4 m in the San Giorgio basin and 20 m in the Mula basin. The finest resolution was not necessarily the best; rather, the relationship between digital elevation model resolution and size of the landform was important. The two selected models showed an excellent performance with AUC values of 0.859 and 0.826 for San Giorgio and Mula, respectively. The Topographic Wetness Index and the general curvature were identified as key topographical attributes in San Giorgio and Mula basins, respectively. Both attributes were related to the processes observed in the field and described in the literature. Finally, maps of gully erosion susceptibility were produced for each basin. These maps showed that 22 and 20 % of San Giorgio and Mula basins, respectively, present favourable conditions for the development of gullies.  相似文献   

13.
To increase children’s resilience to disasters, it is important to expand our understanding of what increases their vulnerability. One household factor that has been tied to disaster resilience in general is the extent to which households have prepared themselves. In the context of wildfire preparedness, the current study examined whether households with very young, young, or teenage children differ in the extent to which they prepare their household compared to childless households. A two-wave survey study amongst Australian residents of wildfire-prone areas (N wave1 = 998, N wave2 = 514) found that households with young (under twelve years old) and very young (under six years old) children had prepared their properties less for wildfires compared to childless households at the start of the wildfire season, but they had caught up in property preparedness by the end of it. However, households with younger children also performed fewer disaster-planning actions than childless households. This difference remained significant throughout the season. The former group also reported lower motivation to prepare, greater perceived difficulty in preparing, and greater lack of time to prepare than childless households. The majority of these findings were explained by the younger age of the adult parents rather than the presence of younger children per se. An exception was that those with young and very young children reported a greater lack of time to prepare than childless adults of a similar age. We discuss practice and public policy implications that follow from this research.  相似文献   

14.
This research selected water soil erosion indicators (land cover, vegetation cover, slope) to assess the risk of soil erosion, ARCMAP GIS ver.9.0 environments and ERDAS ver.9.0 were used to manage and process satellite images and thematic tabular data. Landsat TM images in 2003 were used to produce land/cover maps of the study area based on visual interpreting method and derived vegetation cover maps, and the relief map at the scale of 1:50,000 to calculate the slope gradient maps. The area of water soil erosion was classified into six grades by an integration of slope gradients, land cover types, and vegetation cover fraction. All the data were integrated into a cross-tabular format to carry out the grid-based analysis of soil erosion risk. Results showed that the upper basin of Miyun Reservoir, in general, is exposed to a moderate risk of soil erosion, there is 715,848 ha of land suffered from water soil erosion in 2003, occupied 46.62% of total area, and most of the soil erosion area is on the slight and moderate risk, occupied 45.60 and 47.58% of soil erosion area, respectively.  相似文献   

15.
The magnitude and extent of eutrophication was assessed at 27 segments in 23 estuaries in the Southern California Bight (SCB) between October 2008 and 2009. We applied thresholds from the existing assessment frameworks from both the European Union and the U.S. National Eutrophication Assessment to measurements of three indicators [macroalgae biomass and cover, phytoplankton biomass, and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration] to categorize eutrophic condition in each estuary. Based on these frameworks, a large fraction of segments had moderate or worse eutrophic condition—78 % based on macroalgae, 39 % for phytoplankton, and 63 % for DO. Macroalgal biomass exceeding 70 g dw m?2 and 25 % cover was found at 52 % of sites during any sampling event and in 33 % of segments for 8 weeks or longer, a duration found to negatively impact benthic infauna. Duration of hypoxic events (DO?<?4 mg L?1) was typically short, with most events less than one day; although 53 % of segments had at least one event longer than 24 h. Assessment frameworks of eutrophic condition are likely to evolve over time as the body of literature on eutrophication grows, including aspects such as the applicability of indicators in specific habitat types, indicator thresholds, and how event frequency and duration are incorporated. This paper informs this debate by discussing how eutrophic conditions in SCB estuaries are categorized using different indicators and thresholds. To this end, categorization of estuarine eutrophic condition was found to be very sensitive to the type of threshold, how data are integrated to represent duration or spatial extent, and how indicators are used as multiple lines of evidence.  相似文献   

16.
Land use/land cover (LU/LC) that are significant elements for the interconnection of human activities and environment monitoring can be useful to find out the deviations of saving a maintainable environment. Remote sensing is a very useful tool for the affair of land use or land cover monitoring, which can be helpful to decide the allocation of land use and land cover. Supervised classification-maximum likelihood algorithm in GIS was applied in this study to detect land use/land cover changes observed in Kan basin using multispectral satellite data obtained from Landsat 5 (TM) and 8 (OLI) for the years 2000 and 2016, respectively. The main aim of this study was to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover changes in Kan basin of Tehran over the period 2000–2016. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique was applied to Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2016. The Kan basin was classified into five major LU/LC classes including: Built up areas, garden, pasture, water and bare-land. Change detection analysis was performed to compare the quantities of land cover class conversions between time intervals. The results revealed both increase and decrease of the different LU/LC classes from 2000 to 2016. The results indicate that during the study period, built-up land, and pastures have increased by 0.2% (76.4 km2) and 0.3% (86.03 km2) while water, garden and bare land have decreased by 0, 0.01% (3.62 km2) and 0.4% (117.168 km2), respectively. Information obtained from change detection of LU/LC can aid in providing optimal solutions for the selection, planning, implementation and monitoring of development schemes to meet the increasing demands of human needs in land management.  相似文献   

17.
Changes of land cover in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin from 1985 to 2005   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Land cover is closely related to environmental changes and socioeconomic development. Land-cover change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is different from that in the lowlands; however, a detailed land-cover change in areas such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR) basin in the TP has not been reported. To fill this gap, the current study explores the land-cover change between 1985 and 2005 in the YTR basin. The results show that only 1 % of the land cover in the YTR basin changed during this time period. The most significant land-cover changes included increases in forest and built-up areas as well as decreases in grassland, water and wetland areas. By percentage, the most rapid land-cover change occurred for built-up areas with an annual variation of 2.07 %. There was an obvious vertical distribution pattern for land-cover types in the YTR basin; from low to high, the average altitudes were forest, farmland, built-up, grassland, water and wetland, and bare land. The average altitude and slope for most land-cover types did not vary over the past 20 years. However, the average altitude and slope of built-up significantly decreased, especially in the zone between 3,500 and 4,000 m. The water and wetland area in altitudes above 4,500 m increased; however, they decreased in the zone between 3,500 and 4,000 m. Natural factors cause most land-cover changes, whereas the increasing intensity of human activities cause some changes to built-up and farmland. Additional attention should be paid to the study of the mechanism of land-cover change in the TP.  相似文献   

18.
The ecological water conveyance project that pipes water from Daxihaizi reservoir to lower reaches of Tarim River has been implemented ten times since 2000. After ecological water conveyance, restoration has taken place for vegetation along the dried-up lower reaches of the Tarim River. The changes of vegetation fluctuated yearly due to ecological water conveyance. In order to reveal the detailed process of vegetation changes, remote sensing images from 1999 to 2010 were all classified individually into vegetated and non-vegetated areas using the soil-adjusted vegetation index threshold method. Then inter-annual changes of vegetation over a period of 12 years were obtained using a post-classification change detection technique. Finally, spatial–temporal changes distribution of vegetation cover and its response to ecological water conveyance were analyzed. The results indicate: (1) vegetation area increased by 8.52 % overall after ecological water conveyance. Vegetation between 2003 and 2004 increased dramatically with 45.87 % while vegetation between 2002 and 2003 decreased dramatically with 17.83 %. (2) Vegetation area gain is greater than vegetation loss during 1999–2000, 2001–2002, 2003–2004 and 2009–2010 periods. Although vegetation restoration is obvious from 1999 to 2010, vegetation loss also existed except for the periods above. It indicates that vegetation restoration fluctuated due to ecological water conveyance. (3) Spatial distribution of vegetation restoration presented “strip” distribution along the river and group shaper in the lower terrain area, while spatial distribution of vegetation loss mainly located in the upper reaches of river and area far away from the river. (4) Vegetation restoration area had a positive relative with total ecological water conveyance volume. The scheme and season of ecological water conveyance had also influenced the vegetation restoration. The vegetation change process monitoring, based on continuous remote sensing data, can provide the spatial–temporal distribution of vegetation cover in a large-scale area and scientific evidences for implementing ecological water conveyance in the lower Tarim River.  相似文献   

19.
The installation of a rural settlement complex in the watershed stream Indaiá has promoted changes in land-use and vegetation cover dynamics; however, the effects of intensive agriculture and cattle farming in rural settlements on soil loss rates are not well known. Predictive models implemented in geographic information systems have proven to be effective tools for estimating erosive processes. The erosion predictive model Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) is a useful tool for analyzing, establishing and managing soil erosion. RUSLE has been widely used to estimate annual averages of soil loss, by both interrill and rill erosion, worldwide. Therefore, the aim of this work was to estimate the soil loss in the watershed stream Indaiá, using the RUSLE model and geoprocessing techniques. To estimate soil loss, the following factors were spatialized: erosivity (R), erodibility (K), topography (LS), land-use and management (C) and conservation practices (P); the annual soil loss values were calculated using the RUSLE model equation. The estimated value of soil loss in the hydrographic basin ranged from 0 to 4082.16 Mg ha?1 year?1 and had an average value of 47.81 Mg ha?1 year?1. These results have demonstrated that 68.16 % of the study area showed little or no soil loss based on the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO 1980) classification. When comparing the average value of soil loss obtained using the RUSLE model with the Natural Potential for Erosion, a 16-fold reduction in soil was found, which highlighted the fact that vegetation cover (C factor) has a greater influence than other factors (R, K and LS) on soil loss prediction attenuation. These results lead to the conclusion that soil loss occurs by different methods in each settlement in the basin and that erosive processes modeled by geoprocessing have the potential to contribute to an orderly land management process.  相似文献   

20.
Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.  相似文献   

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