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If a particular distribution for kriging error may be assumed, confidence intervals can be estimated and contract risk can be assessed. Contract risk is defined as the probability that a block grade will exceed some specified limit. In coal mining, this specified limit will be set in a coal sales agreement. A key assumption necessary to implement the geostatistical model is that of local stationarity in the variogram. In a typical project, data limitations prevent a detailed examination of the stationarity assumption. In this paper, the distribution of kriging error and scale of variogram stationarity are examined for a coal property in northern West Virginia. 相似文献
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The aim of this paper is to present a fast method based on bootstrapping, for simulating recoverable reserves for input to financial Monte Carlo simulations. In mining, the three parameters defining recoverable reserves are the cutoff grade, z, the ore tonnage above cutoff, T, and the metal quantity above cutoff, Q. After introducing the concept of 3-dimensional QTz curves, the statistical technique called bootstrapping is reviewed and applied to a set of South African gold grades. As selective mining is carried out on blocks not points, these curves have to be calculated for blocks. The QTz curves obtained by bootstrapping are compared to those obtained by conditionally simulating the same deposit. The procedure has been extended to incorporate geologists' ideas of the likely size of the ore volume. Lastly, the recoverable reserves obtained by bootstrapping are compared with those obtained by traditional risk analysis (base case ± 10% or 20%). 相似文献
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建立了多层次多指标的矿区生态系统健康综合评价体系,并给出矿区生态系统健康等级标准以及相应评价指标的量值。应用物元概念和可拓集合关联函数,并采用层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,构建矿区生态系统健康的可拓评价模型。将该模型应用于大同矿区的生态系统健康评价。通过关联度计算,得出该矿区生态系统健康的综合关联度为-0.023,健康等级为Ⅲ级,属于合格水平。该可拓学评价方法能够准确、科学地区分矿区生态系统健康的等级,为矿区生态系统保护措施的制定提供依据,具有实用性。 相似文献
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选择平顶山煤田二矿、十矿和十二矿51个钻孔的隔水层厚度、断层复杂程度、含水层水压、含水层单位涌水量、采高5个因素为评价因子,以层次分析法和灰色关联分析法计算的常权权重为基础,应用变权理论确定各指标因子的变权权重;分别利用物元可拓法、模糊可变集理论、突变理论、模糊综合评价法,对煤层底板突水危险性进行评价并确定突水危险性等级。与实际开采情况的对比分析证明,模糊可变集理论是最适宜研究区的底板突水危险性评价方法,评价结果与开采实际较为吻合。模糊可变集理论的评价表明,二矿、十矿、十二矿带压区内安全区占比分别为4.08%、14.30%、0,低威胁区占比分别为76.91%、83.14%、85.78%,高威胁区占比分别为19.01%、2.56%、14.22%,研究区内暂无危险区。 相似文献
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克里格法在离子吸附型稀土矿勘查储量估算中的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
我国在离子吸附型稀土矿勘查工作中,一般采用地质块段法估算储量,块段法是将矿体划分为不同厚度的块段投影到水平或垂直方向上,块段的划分、各块段的面积和厚度、品位都会影响储量估算结果。本文以赣南某离子吸附型稀土矿床作为研究对象,基于先期勘探钻孔数据资料,运用三维建模软件创建了该矿床钻孔数据库,建立了矿区内矿体的三维DTM模型;采用克里格法对矿体进行稀土氧化物品位分析,将克里格法的储量计算结果与块段法的储量计算结果作对比分析。结果显示,克里格法计算的矿体体积比块段法增加了11.8%,稀土氧化物储量增加了15%,与实际勘探数据相比较,克里格法的计算结果基本合理,且具有快速、准确、方便的特点。本文利用自主开发的以克里格法为基础的三维数字矿山经济评价系统中价格-边界品位敏感性分析模块,动态设置边界品位,灵活圈定不同价格下经济可采的矿体边界,如当精矿的市场价格从10万元/吨变化为12万元/吨时,通过计算获得了此矿山经济可采矿体的空间扩展范围。基于克里格法的三维估算系统能够帮助矿山选择合理的采矿工程布置,有利于满足矿山动态管理的需要以及保证矿产资源的合理利用。 相似文献
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通过对硬岩型铀矿坑口堆浸法的工艺流程分析，总结出坑口堆浸成本由矿石开采费用、主要原材料费用等14项要素组成，并建立了地质经济评价模型。运用该经济模型编写的坑口堆浸地质经济评价程序，对资源铀矿田和鹿井铀矿田的部分铀矿床进行了坑口堆浸地质经济评价。静态评价结果表明，在坑口堆浸总成本中，矿石开采费用占了相当份额，其次是土建工程及设备设施摊销费用、原材料费用。利用该经济评价模型开发的计算机软件，可以进行辅助决策，帮助决策人员科学地确定某一开发成本下坑口堆浸的矿石平均品位。 相似文献
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隧道水害危险性评价是一个非线性复杂的不确定系统问题。首先,针对其评价指标参数具有不确定性、模糊性和随机性等特点,在充分考虑岩溶隧道水害危险性评价指标关联性的基础上,提出了基于Jousselme距离的指标信度测度动态赋权理论,实现不同的实例、不同的指标实测值对整个系统的动态赋权,降低实际工作中由于指标实测值误差或错误导致评价结果偏差的风险;其次,运用云理论优化集对联系度,与所得权重加权得出系统综合云联系度,并与等级评价区间期望加权平均得到危险值,同时生成对应的等级云图判定隧道水害危险性等级,进而判定岩溶隧道水害危险状态,实现水害危险等级判定的可视化;再次,基于大气降水为岩溶隧道水害主要来源的视角,选取年均降水量、入渗系数、汇水面积、渗透系数和单位涌水量5项指标作为集对云评价指标,并以6条典型岩溶隧道为样本数据进行模型检验,发现评价结果与其他方法的评价结果相吻合,证明了该模型的可靠性和有效性。最后,将模型应用于京珠高速公路媲双坳岩溶隧道水害事故中,评价结果与实际情况相符,采取与评价等级相对应的处治措施,取得了良好的水害治理效果,表明该模型具有工程实用价值,评价流程可操作性强,为岩溶隧道水害的预测和防治提供参考。 相似文献
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Ali Akbar Daya 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2014,83(5):567-576
Most significant iron ore deposits in Iran are located in Central Iran Zone. These deposits belong to the Bafq mining district. The Bafq mining district is located in the Early Cambrian Kashmar-Kerman volcanic arc of Central Iran. Linear estimation of regionalized variables (for example by inverse distance weighting or ordinary Kriging) results in relatively high estimation variances, i.e. the estimates have very low precision. Assessment of project economics (or other critical decision making) based on linear estimation is therefore risky. Non-linear estimation methods like disjunctive kriging perform better and the lower estimation variance allows less risky economic decision-making. Another advantage of disjunctive kriging is that it allows estimation of functions of the primary variable, which here is the grade (Fe %) of the ore. In particular it permits estimation of indicator functions defined using thresholds on the primary variable. This paper is devoted to application of disjunctive kriging method in Choghart North Anomaly iron ore deposit in Central Iran, Yazd province, Iran. In this study, the Fe concentration of Choghart North Anomaly iron ore deposit was modelled and estimated. The exploration data consists of borehole samples measuring the Fe concentration. A Gaussian isofactorial model is fitted to these data and disjunctive kriging was used to estimate the regionalized variable (Fe %) at unsampled locations and to assess the probabilities that the actual concentrations exceed a threshold value at a given location. Consequently a three dimensional model of probability of exceeding a threshold value and the estimated value are provided by disjunctive kriging to divide the ore into an economic and uneconomic part on the basis of estimation of indicator functions using thresholds grades defined on point support. The tools and concepts are complemented by a set of computer programs that are applied to the case study. The study showed that disjunctive kriging can be applied successfully for modeling the grade of an ore deposit. Results showed that the correlation between the estimated value and real value at locations close to each other is 81.9%. 相似文献
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Ali Parhizkar Mohamad Ataei Parviz Moarefvand Vamegh Rasouli 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2012,5(6):1279-1288
Many of the open-pit mines suffer from the lack of reconciliation between estimated and actual grades. In a mining operation, grade reconciliation is the comparison between the values of the estimated grade calculated in exploration stage and the actual grade obtained from more reliable data such as blast holes?? samples. Many different factors affect the degree of reconciliation in a mining operation. In this paper, the factors related to estimated grade which affect the reconciliation process in the exploration stage of the orebody are investigated. These factors constitute the sources of uncertainty for the upcoming phases of the mining life. Among these parameters, the inherent variability, statistical uncertainty, and systematic uncertainty are the most important factors. In this work, these parameters are studied in further detail, and, accordingly, for each of these uncertainties, a correction factor is determined in the proposed model. The model was applied to the study of real data taken from an iron open-pit mine in Iran. The results of the case study indicated that the systematic uncertainty, inherent variability, and statistical uncertainty are, in order, the main sources of uncertainty on grade reconciliation process. Applying the correction factors to estimated grade values has increased the amount of grade reconciliation from 10%, at original condition, to 50%, at new condition, in the case study. 相似文献
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Xiaojing Liu Jiquan Zhang Donglai Ma Yulong Bao Zhijun Tong Xingpeng Liu 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1393-1409
The traditional studies on drought disaster risk were based on the ground point data, which were unable to realize the continuity of space and the timeliness. It is shown that the monitoring and evaluation precision on drought were reduced significantly. However, remote sensing data in adequate spatial and temporal resolution can overcome these limitations. It can better monitor the crop in large area dynamically. This study presents a methodology for dynamic risk analysis and assessment of drought disaster to maize production in the northwest of Liaoning Province based on remote sensing data and GIS from the viewpoints of climatology, geography and disaster science. The model of dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster was established based on risk formation theory of natural disaster, and the expression of risk by integrating data came from sky, ground and space. The risk indexes were divided into four classes by data mining method, and the grade maps of drought disaster risk were drawn by GIS. It is shown that the spatial and temporal risk distributions of maize at each growth stage changed over time. The model has been verified against reduction in maize yield caused by drought. It demonstrated the reasonability, feasibility and reliability of the model and the methodology. The dynamic risk assessment of regional drought disaster for maize can be used as a tool, which can timely monitor the status (the possibility and extent of drought) and trends of regional drought disaster. The results obtained in this study can provide the latest information of regional drought disaster and the decision-making basis of disaster prevention and mitigation for government management and farmers. 相似文献
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Bo Fan 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):643-656
Traditional methods for site selection fail to give reasonable weight to the potential risk grade of different locations. Consequently, site selection does not highlight locations with higher risk grades. Thus, a hybrid analytical method for the site selection of emergency response centers is proposed. First, spatial predicates are incorporated into emergency event analysis. These spatial predicates describe the spatial relationships between emergency locations and surrounding objects. A spatial data association mining method is then developed to identify the correlation rules that contain emergency information and geographical factors. Such rules act as the weight adding mechanism on different urban buildings, such that every spatial object is assigned a risk grade based on these rules. Furthermore, a simulated annealing algorithm is developed by incorporating the weight adding method to locate the optimal sites for emergency centers. A series of experiments is conducted, and the results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed hybrid method. 相似文献
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The recent global scenario in the mineral sector may be characterized by rising competitiveness, increasing production costs and a slump in market price. This has pushed the mineral sector in general and that in the developing countries in particular to a situation where the industry has a limited capacity to sustain unproductive costs. This, more often than not, results in a situation where the industry fails to ensure environmental safeguards during and after mineral extraction. The situation is conspicuous in the Indian coal mining industry where more than 73% production comes from surface operations. India has an ambitious power augmentation projection for the coming 10 years. A phenomenal increase in coal production is proposed from the power grade coalfields in India. One of the most likely fall-outs of land degradation due to mining in these areas would be significant reduction of agricultural and other important land-uses. Currently, backfilling costs are perceived as prohibitive and abandonment of land is the easy way out. This study attempts to provide mine planners with a mathematical model that distributes generated overburden at defined disposal options while ensuring maximization of backfilled land area at minimum direct and economic costs. Optimization has been accomplished by linear programming (LP) for optimum distribution of each year’s generated overburden. Previous year’s disposal quantity outputs are processed as one set of the inputs to the LP model for generation of current year’s disposal output. From various geo-mining inputs, site constants of the LP constraints are calculated. Arrived value of economic vectors, which guide the programming statement, decides the optimal overburden distribution in defined options. The case example (with model test run) indicates that overburden distribution is significantly sensitive to coal seam gradient. The model has universal applicability to cyclic system (shovel–dumper combination) of opencast mining of stratified deposits. 相似文献
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Xavier Emery 《Mathematical Geosciences》2008,40(6):671-688
An important aspect in mineral resource evaluation is the reduction of variance when post-processing the grade distributions
defined on the support (volume) of the available data into distributions defined on the support of the proposed selective
mining units. Although the volume-variance relationship is well understood for the estimation of global grade distributions,
it is still an unsolved issue for local estimation studies based on non-parametric geostatistical methods, such as indicator
kriging, for which the support correction is not inherent to the method. To clarify this relationship, the local change of
support problem is examined in the scope of two parametric models (multi-Gaussian and discrete Gaussian models). It is shown
that the variance reduction factor between point and block-support local distributions depends on the block being considered
and is less than the global variance reduction factor. As a consequence, post-processing the local point-support grade distributions
on the basis of the latter systematically understates the importance of the change of support at the local scale and makes
selective mining appear more economically attractive than it really is. In the light of these results, a methodology is proposed
to post-process the local point-support distributions obtained via non-parametric (indicator) methods into block-support distributions.
An application to simulated data indicates that this methodology provides an accurate estimation at the block support when
dealing with diffusion-type random fields. 相似文献
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全国六大优质无烟煤生产基地之一的永夏煤田,自20世纪70年代初,就陆续开展了煤炭资源的勘查工作,随着区内各矿区勘查阶段和勘查程度的逐步深入,部分矿区已相继建井开采。而针对整个煤田的水文地质及其开采技术条件的分析与评价,目前为止还没有一个完整的综合性成果。通过对区内各矿区、各勘查阶段成果及部分矿井开采资料的汇总和综合研究,认为区内的次级褶皱、断裂构造发育中等,构造复杂程度属中等;三煤组为砂岩裂隙水充水类型,水文地质条件属简单类型,二2煤层为底板砂岩裂隙充水和石炭系上统太原组灰岩裂隙岩溶水充水类型,水文地质条件属简单偏中等类型;煤层顶、底板总体属稳定-中等稳定;区内瓦斯普遍偏低,仅局部地段富集;除局部地段为二级高温区、地温增温异常外,其余大部为地温正常区和一级高温区。该研究为煤田或矿区的总体规划、矿井建设以及矿床开采中加强开采技术条件管理等方面,提供了基础性资料。 相似文献
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INTRODUCTIONThe study of surface subsidence resulting fromunderground mining holds significance in view ofbeneficial effects on national economy and people’sliving conditions.As is known,a large quantity ofminerals need to be exploited for modernization con-struction.Mining leads to surface subsidence,someunderground engineering and production facilities aredestroyed accordingly,which blocks the developmentof production and retards people’s living standard.To solve this contradiction,su… 相似文献
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Ascending mining method is a widely used method in China for coal mine safety. To determine whether ascending mining method can eliminate or reduce the outburst risk or not in Xinzyao Mine, China, a numerical model was built by FLAC3D software to investigate the fracture evolution and accumulation and dissipation law of energy during the process of ascending mining. And a dual water blocking system was used to verify the fracture evolution obtained from the numerical model. The results show that FLAC3D model can predict the fracture evolution in overburden with a reasonable error. The height of water-conducting fractured zone of no. 14-3 coal seam is about 82.5 m, and it increases by 27 % after no. 12-2 coal seam is mined. The largest energy accumulated in no. 12-2 coal seam is about 32.5 kJ/m3 when mining it directly. The energy accumulated in no. 12-2 coal seam decreases by more than 40 % when ascending mining method is adopted. Ascending mining method can effectively eliminate the outburst risk of the upper coal seam. The research is helpful for the determination of ascending mining method and the further study of the prevention mechanism of rock burst. 相似文献