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1.
V. Letfus 《Solar physics》1994,149(2):405-411
Presuming a bimodal behaviour of even-odd solar cycle pairs (i.e., four modes designated asA, B, C, andD), we predict the amplitude of solar cycle 23. The bimodal properties include the dependence of maximum relative sunspot number (RM) on cycle rise time (TR) separately for odd-following and even cycles (both in two split modes), and the dependencies of odd-following on even cycles separately for cycle rise times and maximum relative sunspot numbers (each also split into two mode pairs). The procedure was first to identify the proper mode for cycle 22 (modeA), which then explicitly defines the mode for cycle 23 (modeC). The presumed mode-inherent relations were then used to estimate the rise time for cycle 23 (3.7 0.5 yr) and its maximum amplitude (195.1 17.1). A second estimate of maximum amplitude, based directly on a presumed mode-inherent relation between maximum amplitudes for even and odd cycle pairs, yields a somewhat lower value (181.3 44.3). Thus, the results of this analysis supports previous findings that cycle 23 may be one of the largest amplitude cycles ever observed. 相似文献
2.
Power spectral densities computed from low-latitude horizontal intensity of the Earth's magnetic field over two-year periods of declining phases of solar cycles 16 to 19 show a close relationship with the maximum relative sunspot number of the following solar cycles. The maximum sunspot number shows an exponential rise with the power density near 1/27 cd?1; maximum R z,however, increases linearly with power density near 1/14 cd?1. It is also shown that the rate of decline of sunspot number in a solar cycle is almost exactly related, linearly, to power spectral density for the preceding solar cycle. Power densities near 1/27 and 1/14 cd?1 in declining phase of solar cycle appear to be satisfactory indices for the maximum relative sunspot number of the following cycle and its rate of decline thereafter. 相似文献
3.
L. H. Deng J. Y. Song Y. Y. Xiang Y. K. Tang 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2011,32(3):401-409
The monthly sunspot numbers compiled by Temmer et al. and the monthly polar faculae from observations of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, for the interval of March
1954 to March 1996, are used to investigate the phase relationship between polar faculae and sunspot activity for total solar
disk and for both hemispheres in solar cycles 19, 20, 21 and 22. We found that (1) the polar faculae begin earlier than sunspot
activity, and the phase difference exhibits a consistent behaviour for different hemispheres in each of the solar cycles,
implying that this phenomenon should not be regarded as a stochastic fluctuation; (2) the inverse correlation between polar
faculae and sunspot numbers is not only a long-term behaviour, but also exists in short time range; (3) the polar faculae
show leads of about 50–71 months relative to sunspot numbers, and the phase difference between them varies with solar cycle;
(4) the phase difference value in the northern hemisphere differs from that in the southern hemisphere in a solar cycle, which
means that phase difference also existed between the two hemispheres. Moreover, the phase difference between the two hemispheres
exhibits a periodical behaviour. Our results seem to support the finding of Hiremath (2010). 相似文献
4.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
5.
1 ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅｉｓｕｓｕａｌｌｙｄｅｓｃｒｉｂｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓ.Ａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｏｆｈｉｓ ｔｏｒｉｃａｌｄａｔａｏｎｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓｈａｖｅｒｅｖｅａｌｅｄａｗｅａｌｔｈｏｆｉｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅ (ＨｏｎｇＱｉｎｆａｎｇ 1 990 ,1 994;ＺｈｏｎｇＳｈｕｈｕａ 1 991 ,1 995 ) .Ｔｈｅｓｏ ｃａｌｌｅｄ 1 1 ｙｅａｒｐｅ ｒｉｏ… 相似文献
6.
Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will
survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted
using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated
to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic
activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it
will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the
long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades. 相似文献
7.
Gui-Ming LeNational Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Center for Space Science Applied Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2004,4(6):578-582
Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990. 相似文献
8.
The existence of a 22-year heliomagnetic cycle was inferred long ago not only from direct measurements of the solar magnetic field but also from a cyclic variability of a number of the solar activity phenomena. In particular, it was stated (a rule derived after Gnevyshev and Ohl (1948) findings and referenced as the G–O rule in the following) that if sunspot number Rz cycles are organized in pairs of even–odd numbered cycles, then the height of the peak in the curve of the yearly-averaged sunspot numbers Rz-y is always lower for a given even cycle in comparison with the corresponding height of the following odd cycle. Exceptions to this rule are only cycles 4 and 8 which, at the same time, are the nearest even cycles to the limits of the so-called Dalton minimum of solar activity (i.e., the 1795–1823 time interval). In the present paper, we are looking for traces of the mentioned G–O rule in green corona brightness (measured in terms of the Fexiv 530.3 nm emission line intensity), using data covering almost five solar cycles (1943–1994). It was found that the G–O rule seems to work within the green-line corona brightness, namely, when coronal intensity measured in an extended solar middle-latitude zone is considered separately from the rest of the solar surface. On the other hand, the same G–O rule is valid at the photospheric level, as the heliographic latitudinal dependence of sunspot numbers (1947–1984) shows. 相似文献
9.
Forecasting the solar cycle is of great importance for weather prediction and environmental monitoring, and also constitutes
a difficult scientific benchmark in nonlinear dynamical modeling. This paper describes the identification of a model and its
use in the forecasting the time series comprised of Wolf’s sunspot numbers. A key feature of this procedure is that the original
time series is first transformed into a symmetrical space where the dynamics of the solar dynamo are unfolded in a better
way, thus improving the model. The nonlinear model obtained is parsimonious and has both deterministic and stochastic parts.
Monte Carlo simulation of the whole model produces very consistent results with the deterministic part of the model but allows
for the determination of confidence bands. The obtained model was used to predict cycles 24 and 25, although the forecast
of the latter is seen as a crude approximation, given the long prediction horizon required. As for the 24th cycle, two estimates
were obtained with peaks of 65±16 and of 87±13 units of sunspot numbers. The simulated results suggest that the 24th cycle
will be shorter and less active than the preceding one. 相似文献
10.
我们对第12周至第22周的太阳黑子月平均面积数进行统计分析,并与相应的太阳黑子月平均数相比较,结果表明太阳黑子月平均面积数活动周与太阳黑子月平均数活动周有一定的关系。在多数情况下,太阳黑子出现最大值的时间与太阳黑子面积数出现最大值的时间上不一致;太阳黑子平滑月平均数活动周上升期与太阳黑子平滑月平均面积数上升期在大多数情况下不相同;太阳黑子平滑月平均数活动周平均效果的瓦德迈尔效应(Waldmeiereffect)一般要比太阳黑子平滑平均面积数的活动周明显;文中还对太阳黑子平滑月平均面积数活动周的特征进行了分析。 相似文献
11.
We revised relative sunspot numbers in the time interval 1700–1748 for which Wolf derived their annual means. The frequency of daily observations, counting simultaneously the number of sunspots and the number of sunspot groups necessary for determinating Wolf's relative sunspot numbers, is in this time interval very low and covers, on average, 4.8% of the number of all days only. There also exist incomplete observations not convenient to determine relative sunspot numbers. To enlarge the number of daily relative sunspot numbers we used the nonlinear, two-step interpolation method derived earlier by Letfus (1996, 1999). After interpolation, the mean value increased to 13.8%. Waldmeier (1968) found that the scaling factor k can be derived directly from the observed number of spots f and from the number of sunspot groups g. From the observations made at Zürich (Wolf and his assistants, Wolfer), at Peckeloh, and at Moncalieri during the years 1861–1928, we derived a new, more correct empirical relation. The resulting annual relative sunspot numbers are given in Table II. However, only for 26 years (53.0%) from the total number of 49 years was it possible to derive annual relative sunspot numbers. The observations were missing for the other years. This corresponds with results of Wolf, which gives the annual relative sunspot numbers for all 49 years. For the years when the data were missing, he marked these values as interpolated or very uncertain ones. Most of the observations originate from two data series (Kirch, Plantade), for which Wolf derived a higher scaling factor (k=2.0) than followed from the newly derived relation (k=1.40). The investigated time interval covers four solar cycles. After our results, the height of the first cycle (No. –4), given by Wolf, should be lowered by about two-thirds, the following two cycles (Nos. –3 and –2) lowered by one-third, as given by Wolf, and only the height of the fourth one (No. –1) should be unchanged. The activity levels of the cycles, as represented by group sunspot numbers, are lower by about one-fourth and, in the case of the first one (No. –4) even by two-thirds of the levels derived by us. The group sunspot numbers, derived from a much greater number of observations, have also greater credibility than other estimates. The shapes of the cycles, as given by Wolf, can be considered only as their more or less idealized form. 相似文献
12.
Most of the present models and reconstructions of solar irradiance use the concept of Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) to account for the influence of sunspots on solar brightness. Since PSI is based on measured sunspot areas a firm database of such areas is essential. We show, however, that a significant disagreement exists between the data provided by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (from 1874 to 1976) and newer measurements provided by the observatories of Rome, Yunnan, Catania, and the US Air Force. The overlap of the time intervals over which sunspot areas were measured at Greenwich and Rome allows us to quantify the difference between the Greenwich and other data sets. We find that the various data sets differ, at least in a statistical sense, mainly by a correction factor of between 1.15 and 1.25.The revised time series of sunspot areas correlates well with the Zürich sunspot relative numbers over the last 120 years, with the relationship between sunspot areas and sunspot numbers changing only slightly from one cycle to the next. In particular, no indication exists for any extraordinary magnetic behavior of the Sun during the last 2 decades, as might falsely be concluded if the various sunspot area data sets are uncritically combined. There are, however, some indications that cycles 15 and 16 deviate from the rest. We expect that our results should have a significant influence on the reconstruction of the historical solar irradiance. 相似文献
13.
Li Kejun Gu Xiaoma Xiang Fuyuan Liu Xiaohua Chen Xuekun 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,317(4):897-901
Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle. 相似文献
14.
In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity. 相似文献
15.
We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24. 相似文献
16.
Series of 110 years of sunspot numbers and indices of geomagnetic activity are used with 17 years of solar wind data in order to study through solar cycles both stream and shock event solar activity. According to their patterns on Bartels diagrams of geomagnetic indices, stable wind streams and transient solar activities are separated from each other. Two classes of stable streams are identified: equatorial streams occurring sporadically, for several months, during the main phase of sunspot cycles and both polar streams established, for several years, at each cycle, before sunspot minimum. Polar streams are the first activity of solar cycles. For study of the relationship between transient geomagnetic phenomena and sunspot activity, we raise the importance of the contribution, at high spot number, of severe storms and, at low spot number, of short lived and unstable streams. Solar wind data are used to check and complete the above results. As a conclusion, we suggest a unified scheme of solar activity evolution with a starting point every eleventh year, a total duration of 17 years and an overlapping of 6 years between the first and the last phase of both successive series of phenomena: first, from polar field reversal to sunspot minimum, a phase of polar wind activity of the beginning cycle is superimposed on the weak contribution of shock events of the ending cycle; secondly, an equatorial phase mostly of shock events is superimposed on a variable contribution of short lived and sporadic stable equatorial stream activities; and thirdly a phase of low latitude shock events is superimposed on the polar stream interval of the following cycle. 相似文献
17.
Large-scale distribution of the sunspot activity of the Sun has been analyzed by using a technique worked out previously (Erofeev, 1997) to study long-lived, non-axisymmetric magnetic structures with different periods of rotation. Results of the analysis have been compared with those obtained by analyzing both the solar large-scale magnetic field and large-scale magnetic field simulated by means of the well-known flux transport equation using the sunspot groups as a sole source of new magnetic flux in the photosphere. A 21-year period (1964–1985) has been examined.The rotation spectra calculated for the total time interval of two 11-year cycles indicate that sunspot activity consists of a series of discrete components (modes) with different periods of rotation. The largest-scale component of the sunspot activity reveals modes with 27-day and 28-day periods of rotation situated, correspondingly, in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun, and two modes with rotation periods of about 29.7 days situated in both hemispheres. Such a modal structure of the sunspot activity agrees well with that of the large-scale solar magnetic field. Moreover, the magnetic field distribution simulated with the flux transport equation also reveals the same modal structure. However, such an agreement between the large-scale solar magnetic field and both the sunspot activity and simulated magnetic field is unstable in time; so, it is absent in the northern hemisphere of the Sun during solar cycle No. 20. Thus the sources of magnetic flux responsible for formation of the large-scale, rigidly rotating magnetic patterns appear to be closely connected, but are not identical with the discrete modes of the sunspot activity. 相似文献
18.
Intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The presence of intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity, at approximately 323 and 540 days, has been claimed by different authors. In this paper, we have performed a search for them in the historical records of two main indices of solar activity, namely, the daily sunspot areas (cycles 12–21) and the daily Zürich sunspot number (cycles 6–21). Two different methods to compute power spectra have been used, one of them being especially appropriate to deal with gapped time series. The results obtained for the periodicity near 323 days indicate that it has only been present in cycle 21, while in previous cycles no significant evidence for it has been found. On the other hand, a significant periodicity at 350 days is found in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number during cycles 12–21 considered all together, also having been detected in some individual cycles. However, this last periodicity must be looked into with care due to the lack of confirmation for it coming from other features of solar activity. The periodicity around 540 days is found in cycles 12, 14, and 17 in sunspot areas, while during cycles 18 and 19 it is present, with a very high significance, in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number. It also appears at 528 days in sunspot areas during cycles 12–21. On the other hand, it is important to note the coincidence between the asymmetry, favouring the northern hemisphere, of sunspot areas and solar flares during cycle 19, and the fact that the periodicity at 540 days was only present, with high significance, in that hemisphere during that solar cycle. 相似文献
19.
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and we conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97±15, to occur in January??C?February 2014 ± six months. 相似文献
20.
Hirokazu Yoshimura 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1995,316(3):175-186
We found an evidence that the solar cycle luminosity modulation of the Sun deduced from the total irradiance modulation which was measured by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on board of Nimbus 7 from November 16, 1978 to December 13, 1993 was not in phase with the solar cycle magnetic oscillation when we used the sunspot relative number as its index. The modulation was delayed in time behind the solar cycle magnetic oscillation by an amount of about 10.3 years on the order of length of one solar cycle. In order to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between the two quantities, we devised a method to extract characteristics which were proper to a particular solar cycle by defining a new index of the correlation called multiplied correlation index (MCI). We found that the characteristics of the ERB data time profile between solar cycles 21 and 22 were more similar to those of the solar cycle magnetic oscillation between solar cycles 20 and 21 than those between solar cycles 21 and 22 and thus the time profile of the luminosity modulation from the maximum phase of solar cycle 21 to the declining phase of the solar cycle 22 corresponded to the solar cycle magnetic oscillation from the maximum phase of solar cycle 20 to the declining phase of solar cycle 21. We interpret this phenomenon as an evidence that main features of the modulation is not caused by dark sunspots and bright faculae and plages on the surface of the Sun that should instantaneously affect the luminosity modulation but is caused by time-delayed modulation of global convection by the Lorentz force of the magnetic field of the solar cycle. The delay time of about 10.3 years is the time needed for the force to modify the flows of the convection and to modulate heat flow. Thus the delay time is a function of the strength of the magnetic field oscillation of the solar cycle which is represented by amplitude of the solar cycle. Accordingly, the delay time for other time intervals of the solar cycle magnetic oscillation with different amplitudes can be different from 10.3 years for the interval of the present analysis. 相似文献