共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
L. I. Lobkovsky A. B. Rabinovich E. A. Kulikov A. I. Ivashchenko I. V. Fine R. E. Thomson T. N. Ivelskaya G. S. Bogdanov 《Oceanology》2009,49(2):166-181
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared. 相似文献
2.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
3.
Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations
of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events).
Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data
of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian
coast of the Black Sea. 相似文献
4.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(3-4):705-712
Analysis of sea-level data obtained from the Atlantic Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) sea-level station at Takoradi, Ghana, West Africa, clearly reveals a tsunami signal associated with the Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean. The tsunami arrived at this location on 27 December 2004 at approximately 01:38 UTC (which is close to the expected tsunami arrival time at that site), after travelling for more than 24 hours. The first wave was negative (trough), in contrast with the South African stations where the first wave was mainly positive (crest). The dominant observed period at Takoradi was about 42 minutes. The maximum trough-to-crest wave height (41cm) was observed on 28 December at 00:15 UTC. There were two distinct tsunami 'bursts', separated in time by about 14 hours, the larger being the second burst. A small residual lowering of the sea level (～15cm) during the tsunami and for several days afterwards, and a delayed (～4.5 days) lowering of seawater temperature (up to ～4.5°C), was observed, possibly indicating the presence of internal waves through the Gulf of Guinea associated with propagating tsunami waves. The prominent tsunami signal found in the Takoradi record suggests that tsunami waves could also be found at other sites off the West African coast. 相似文献
5.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构... 相似文献
6.
Hirofumi Hinata Satoshi Fujii Keita Furukawa Tomoya Kataoka Masafumi Miyata Takashi Kobayashi Masahiro Mizutani Takahiro Kokai Nobuyoshi Kanatsu 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011
Signals from the tsunami waves induced by the March 11, 2011 moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and from subsequent resonances were detected as radial velocity variability by a high-frequency ocean surface radar (HF radar) installed on the eastern coast of the Kii Channel, at a range of about 1000 km from the epicenter along the eastern to southern coasts of Honshu Island. A time–distance diagram of band-passed (9–200 min) radial velocity along the beam reveals that the tsunami waves propagated from the continental shelf slope to the inner channel as progressive waves for the first three waves, and then natural oscillations were excited by the waves; and that the direction of the tsunami wave propagation and the axis of the natural oscillations differed from that of the radar beam. In addition, spectral analyses of the radial velocities and sea surface heights obtained in the channel and on the continental shelf slope suggest complex natural oscillation modes excited by the tsunami waves. 相似文献
7.
The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M S(40) and M S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms. 相似文献
8.
2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。 相似文献
9.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider
ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m.
It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the
coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic
zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of
the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close
to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In
the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the
initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of
generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the
west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more
pronounced. 相似文献
10.
Amr Z. Hamouda 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2010,31(3):197-214
Scenarios of tsunami effects represent a very useful technique for the definition and evaluation of tsunami hazard and risk
for the Egyptian coast. This paper is an attempt to develop different worst scenarios of tsunamigenesis toward the Egyptian
Coast for five segment localities along three different sub-regions (Hellenic Arc, Cyprean Arc and Levantine Coast) in the
eastern Mediterranean Sea. These segments are the southwest Hellenic Arc, southeast Hellenic Arc, northeast Hellenic Arc,
west of Cyprean Arc and Levantine. For each of them, the scenario takes into account a seismic fault capable of generating
an earthquake with magnitude equal to or larger than the highest magnitude registered in that region in historical times.
Then the ensuing tsunamis are simulated numerically, highlighting the basic features of the wave propagation and roughly identifying
the coastal sectors that are expected to suffer the heaviest tsunami effects. The output data indicated that the first wave
of tsunamis from different segments attacked the nearest reference localities (city located nearest each segment) along the
Egyptian shore between 28 and 50 min after an earthquake. Tsunamis from these earthquake scenarios produced maximum run-up
heights ranging from 1.7 to 9.4 m at the shore. A Beirut Thrust scenario (Levantine segment) included the fact that only a
small portion of the fault extended out into the sea, leading to a small effective tsunami source area. In contrast, the southwest
Hellenic Arc segment (as in the A.D. 365 earthquake) has high displacement (15 m) and a long extensional fault, forming a
highly effective tsunami source area. 相似文献
11.
基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。 相似文献
12.
Eguchi Takao Fujinawa Yukio Fujita Eisuke Iwasaki Sin-Iti Watabe Isao Fujiwara Hiroyuki 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1998,20(2):73-94
We installed a real-time operating regional observation network of Ocean-Bottom-Seismometers, connected to an electro-optical fiber communication cable, at the Sagami trough subduction zone, just south of the Tokyo metropolitan area, central Japan. The network, called ETMC, has six seismic observation sites at approximately 20 km spacing. In addition, there are three tsunami observation sites along the ETMC network to monitor the propagation process of tsunamis around the Sagami trough region.The on-line data from the ETMC has been improving the detection capability of smaller-magnitude earthquakes even at areas close to the margin of the trough. The ETMC data analyzing system, which has a function of real-time digital filtering for each seismic channel, can read the arrival times of P- and S-waves precisely, constraining well the automatic on-line hypocenter locations. The network has been providing useful information regarding the bending and downgoing process of the Philippine sea plate at the Sagami trough subduction zone.The pressure sensors of the installed network have a detection capability of tsunami wave trains with an amplitude of less than 1 cm. For example, the sensors recorded the full time history of tsunami wave trains, with mm order resolution, originating from a tsunami earthquake with 5.7 MW and the tsunami magnitude of 7.5 occurred near Tori Shima (Tori Is.) of the Izu-Bonin Is. arc on September 4, 1996. The maximum amplitude of the tsunami signals on the trough-floor was approximately 1 cm (P-P), in contrast with approximately 20 cm (0-P) at a coastal site on Izu-Oshima, near the trough. Also, the pressure sensors observed tsunamis due to a large tsunami earthquake (7.1 MW) at the northern New Guinea, on July 17, 1998. 相似文献
13.
Modeling the near-field effects of the worst-case tsunami in the Makran subduction zone 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As a first step towards the development of inundation maps for the northwestern Indian Ocean, we simulated the near-field inundation of two large tsunami in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). The tsunami scenarios were based on large historical earthquakes in the region. The first scenario included the rupture of about 500 km of the plate boundary in the eastern MSZ, featuring a moment magnitude of Mw 8.6. The second scenario involved the full rupture of the plate boundary resulting from a Mw 9 earthquake. For each scenario, the distribution of tsunami wave height along the coastlines of the region is presented. Also, detailed runup modeling was performed at four main coastal cities in the region for the second scenario. To investigate the possible effect of splay fault branching on tsunami wave height, a hypothetical splay fault was modeled which showed that it can locally increase the maximum wave height by a factor of 2. Our results showed that the two tsunami scenarios produce a runup height of 12-18 m and 24-30 m, respectively. For the second scenario, the modeled inundation distance was between 1 and 5 km. 相似文献
14.
Abstract A necessary stage in calculations for prediction purposes is the study of the tsunami recurrence function which yields mean recurrence of tsunami with maximum wave height not greater than a specified level h. The major problem in using these functions for prediction purposes is the fact that a well‐grounded approximation of empirical data on wave heights is difficult to obtain, because the mathematical model for prediction is an extrapolation of this function for tsunami heights whose recurrence remains uncertain. We shall show that the natural relation of observable tsunamis statistics to extremum statistics leads to the discovery of at least two and possibly three temporal scale intervals with different tsunami modes. It has also been clarified that for the 10 years < T < 103 years range of time periods, which is the most important one for tsunami wave height prediction purposes, the tsunami recurrence is described by two parameters: frequency A of occurrence of large tsunamis and coefficient k of wave ampliflcation near the shore. As an example, a diagram of tsunami hazard zoning of the eastern Honshu coast has been plotted. 相似文献
15.
2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生Mw8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。 相似文献
16.
深圳海域潮汐海啸波耦合数值研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
以COMCOT海啸模式和TPXO7.1全球潮汐模式为基础,采用三层嵌套网格,建立了南海海啸与潮汐耦合计算模型,分析深圳海域海啸和潮汐相互作用。潮汐计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,高、低潮位平均误差小于15 cm,20 cm;在潮汐验证的基础上,以马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸源为案例,进行8.0,9.0级地震海啸与潮汐耦合情景模拟计算,计算结果表明,9级地震海啸在深圳海域外海波高为140~150 cm,如先行波为正波发生在高潮时将产生异常高潮位,负波发生在低潮时将产生异常低潮位,线性叠加计算结果偏大,在25.0 cm之内,到达时间差异小于6 min。 相似文献
17.
S. A. Beisel V. K. Gusiakov L. B. Chubarov Yu. I. Shokin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):508-519
Results of a numerical simulation of the action of distant tsunamis on the coast of the Russian Far East are presented. It is shown that waves generated by focuses of the strongest M9 earthquakes in the region of South Chilean coast, as well as in the region of Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, are most dangerous for this coast. Other tsunamigenic zones of the Pacific Ocean, by virtue of their geographical position, orientation of focuses, and absence of pronounced channels (submarine ridges) along paths of tsunami propagation are not dangerous for it even at a limit magnitude of submarine subduction earthquakes. The simulation results are compared with historical data about manifestations of distant tsunamis on the Russian Far East coast. 相似文献
18.
19.
Hideo Watanabe 《Journal of Oceanography》1972,28(6):229-241
The tide-gauge records of large tsunamis are classified into three types, A, B and C. The “A” type record is made up of one or a few large waves near the wave front. The “B” type record consists of one or a few wave groups. The “C” type is the combination of the “A” and “B” types. The data used are; the Kamchatka Tsunami of Nov. 4, 1952, the Aleutian Tsunami of March 9, 1957, the Chilean Tsunami of May 22, 1960 and the Alaska Tsunami of March 28, 1964. The A type occurs mostly at isolated islands in the Pacific Ocean and occasionally at continental coasts. The B type is mostly distributed on the continental coast and along the island-arc. The distribution of the C type differs from tsunami to tsunami. The relation between the delay time of the maximum wave and the the travel time of the wave front is as follows:
- For the wave of the A type and the head wave of C type, the delay time (t D ) is constant for all travel times.
- For the first wave group of B and C types, the delay time (T 1) is constant or slow decreases with travel time. For the second and third wave groups of B and C types, the definite decrease of delay times (T 2 andT 3) with travel time is observed.
20.
渤海海域地震海啸灾害概率性风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
渤海作为我国地震活动性最为活跃的近海,其地震海啸风险不可忽视。本文应用概率性海啸风险评估方法对渤海周边区域的海啸风险进行评估。根据历史地震目录建立了渤海区域的震级-频率关系,基于蒙特卡洛算法随机生成了一套10万年的地震目录,最终通过对地震事件的海啸数值模拟及最大波幅的统计分析给出了环渤海区域典型重现期的最大波幅分布以及重点城市的海啸波幅曲线。评估结果表明,渤海地区海啸风险主要集中在渤海湾和莱州湾周边,波幅可达到1~3 m,辽东湾地区海啸风险较低。 相似文献