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1.
影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟。本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险。通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发海啸过程的模拟。该方法将数量庞大的地震海啸情景转化为有限的单位源水位扰动的传播计算,利用单位扰动源的传播演进数据库,计算目标位置的水位波动过程,可以很大程度上降低大规模情景模拟的计算负担。基于大规模情景模拟,结合各情景出现的概率,客观地给出了南海主要岛礁的海啸波高重现期,为海岛防灾减灾提供参考。研究结果表明,大多数目标岛礁处百年一遇的海啸波高不超过0.4 m。南海内不同位置处的海啸风险有较大差异,东沙群岛附近百年一遇的海啸波高超过0.6 m,而西沙的永乐群岛和南沙群岛的海啸波高显著低于其他区域。 相似文献
2.
“3.11”日本地震海啸及南海和琉球群岛假想地震海啸对福建近海影响的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
福建地处西北太平洋沿岸,在环太平洋地震带附近,是海啸灾害潜在风险区.＂3.11＂日本地震海啸,福建沿岸验潮站就监测到其海啸波.利用CTSU地震海啸数值模式,模拟了＂3.11＂日本地震海啸对福建近海的影响,模拟结果与实况较吻合.同时,利用该数值模式模拟分析了可能来自于琉球群岛和南海附近海域的地震海啸对福建近海的影响,分析表明,如果在琉球群岛海域（28.0°N,129.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4.5 h左右抵达福建北部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达2 m;如果在马尼拉海沟附近海域（17.5°N,119.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4 h左右抵达福建南部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达3 m,均会给福建沿海地区带来灾害性影响.为此,本文亦针对性提出了防范地震海啸的一些措施与建议,为福建省海洋防灾减灾提供参考. 相似文献
3.
Numerical simulation of the earthquake and tsunami of November 15, 2006, and the spectral analysis of the distribution of
the wave fields in the basin made it possible to analyze in detail the tsunami generation by a seismic source and the pattern
of the wave propagation through the Bussol Strait, as well as to estimate the influence of this strait on the further propagation
of the waves in the basin of the Sea of Okhotsk and the near-field zones of the Kurile and Japanese Islands. 相似文献
4.
Amr Z. Hamouda 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2010,31(3):197-214
Scenarios of tsunami effects represent a very useful technique for the definition and evaluation of tsunami hazard and risk
for the Egyptian coast. This paper is an attempt to develop different worst scenarios of tsunamigenesis toward the Egyptian
Coast for five segment localities along three different sub-regions (Hellenic Arc, Cyprean Arc and Levantine Coast) in the
eastern Mediterranean Sea. These segments are the southwest Hellenic Arc, southeast Hellenic Arc, northeast Hellenic Arc,
west of Cyprean Arc and Levantine. For each of them, the scenario takes into account a seismic fault capable of generating
an earthquake with magnitude equal to or larger than the highest magnitude registered in that region in historical times.
Then the ensuing tsunamis are simulated numerically, highlighting the basic features of the wave propagation and roughly identifying
the coastal sectors that are expected to suffer the heaviest tsunami effects. The output data indicated that the first wave
of tsunamis from different segments attacked the nearest reference localities (city located nearest each segment) along the
Egyptian shore between 28 and 50 min after an earthquake. Tsunamis from these earthquake scenarios produced maximum run-up
heights ranging from 1.7 to 9.4 m at the shore. A Beirut Thrust scenario (Levantine segment) included the fact that only a
small portion of the fault extended out into the sea, leading to a small effective tsunami source area. In contrast, the southwest
Hellenic Arc segment (as in the A.D. 365 earthquake) has high displacement (15 m) and a long extensional fault, forming a
highly effective tsunami source area. 相似文献
5.
2011年3月11日日本宫城县以东太平洋海域发生Mw9.0级特大地震,造成了地表的严重错位并引发海啸。文中利用位于日本及周边国家的IGS站和国家海洋局GPS业务站观测数据,采用作者研制的精密单点定位(PPP)软件UniP,对此次地震的GPS数据响应进行了研究。结果表明:(1)GPS观测数据能清晰、连续地记录震时地表形变的过程,我国CHAN,NCST等站点水平方向的震时最大位移在10 cm以内,高程方向的震时最大位移在15 cm以内,且形变以可恢复性的弹性形变为主。(2)我国距震中较远,受此次日本地震的影响较小,且大部分站点是在东坐标方向出现不同程度的震后永久性位移。其中CHAN站点的震后位移最为明显,东向形变量为(1.8±0.11)cm;NCST、NLHT站点次之,东向形变量分别为(1.1±0.26)cm和(1.0±0.18)cm。(3)地震波传输到国家海洋局GPS业务站NCST、NLHT等的时间约为10 min,比海啸在深海的传播速度快约14倍,可为海啸预警提供所需的时间差。这些结果显示出GPS能够为地震监测和动力学特征研究提供有价值的基础资料,也表明中国沿海GPS业务观测系统在海底地震监测、海啸预警服务中的应用潜力。 相似文献
6.
印尼附近海域地震海啸发生的构造背景综述 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
2004年12月26日在印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛以西海域发生的里氏9级地震,引发了历史上第五大地震海啸,引起了地学界的高度关注。印度尼西亚西部位于环太平洋地震带和地中海-喜马拉雅地震带结合部位,处于洋壳和陆壳的汇聚边界以及弧状压缩构造格局中。苏门答腊陆缘NW—SE向延伸约1600km,苏门答腊俯冲带源于印度-澳大利亚和欧亚板块3°N的汇聚。苏门答腊弧前区沿着平行于俯冲海沟的两大走滑断裂——苏门答腊大断裂和明打威断裂向北运动。本文对印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛附近海域的地质背景、大地构造特征和地震活动评估等进行了综述,对该海域产生大地震的深部动力学机制进行了分析,并从地质、地球物理资料的获取与分析角度出发,对区域灾害模型进行了探讨。 相似文献
7.
南海海啸在泰国湾海域的共振响应 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
马尼拉海沟具备引发地震海啸的条件,是南中国海主要的潜在海啸发生区。南中国海西南部泰国湾海域和纳土纳海域地形复杂、多独立的半封闭水域,海啸波极易在该区域形成水波共振,加剧其灾害影响。采用COMCOT海啸模型模拟了马尼拉海沟断裂带发生9.3级地震时引发海啸的长时间传播过程,并基于水波共振理论分析其在不同尺度下的共振特性。结果表明,海啸波在曼谷湾至邦加—勿里洞岛间引起了明显的纵向第一、二模态(3 360.0 min、1 440.0 min)水波共振,在泰国湾至邦加—勿里洞岛之间引起了明显的纵向第二、三、四模态(775.4 min、560.0 min、373.3 min)共振,而在泰国湾至印度尼西亚沿岸引起了明显的纵向第二、三、五、七模态(1 008.0 min、630.0 min、373.3 min、252.0 min)水波共振。此外,海啸波不仅在泰国湾引起了明显的纵向第一、三、四模态(560. 0 min、252. 0 min、179. 4 min)共振,还在其横向出现了明显的第一、二、三模态(480.0 min、252.0 min、179.4 min)共振。 相似文献
8.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
9.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构... 相似文献
10.
This study was conducted to determine the stability of a quay wall under the combined action of an earthquake and tsunami. Adopting the limit equilibrium method, the stability of the quay wall was assessed for both the sliding and overturning modes under passive and active conditions. The variation in the stability of the quay wall was determined by parametric studies, including those for the tsunami wave height, seismic acceleration coefficient, internal friction angle of soil, wall friction angle, and pore water pressure ratio. The stability of the wall was also compared with the case of no earthquake and tsunami forces. When the earthquake and tsunami were considered simultaneously, the stability of the wall under the passive condition decreased significantly. The critical mode of the quay wall under the earthquake and tsunami forces was found to be that of the overturning mode. In the active condition, the safety factors for sliding and overturning increased, because the tsunami acted as a resisting force. However, it should be noted that, if a tsunami wave spills over the quay wall and then flows backward to the wall active condition, the tsunami no longer acts as a resisting force. 相似文献
11.
L. I. Lobkovsky A. B. Rabinovich E. A. Kulikov A. I. Ivashchenko I. V. Fine R. E. Thomson T. N. Ivelskaya G. S. Bogdanov 《Oceanology》2009,49(2):166-181
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared. 相似文献
12.
George Pararas-Carayannis 《Marine Geology》1974,17(4):235-247
The source mechanism of the tsunami generated by the earthquake of 17 October, 1966 off the coast of central Peru was inferred by studying the seismic and oceanic phenomena associated with this event. The seismic mechanism was deduced from geologic structure, seismic intensities, energy releases, spatial distribution of aftershocks, and fault-plane solutions. Using this information and empirical relationships of seismic parameters, the fault length, azimuthal orientation of the tsunamigenic area, and initial tsunami height, were obtained. From the tsunami arrival times at selected stations and from a reverse wave-refraction technique, the limits of the tsunami-generating area were estimated. Using these source dimensions, an estimate of the tsunami energy was obtained. The spatial distribution of aftershocks associated with the main earthquake and the earthquake strain-release pattern correlated well with known seismotectonic trends and the seismic-velocity structure anomalies which are characteristic of thrust fault systems at continent-ocean boundaries. The investigation revealed that the tsunamigenic area was on the continental shelf off Peru, northwest of Lima, in the western part of an active seismic belt between the Andean Mountain block and the Peru-Chile trench. This area is considered to be one of three distinct seismic zones in the Peruvian upper mantle and has been responsible for a number of tsunamigenic earthquakes within recorded history. The aftershock distribution and strain-release patterns suggest that the earthquake fault was a seaward extension of a fault system which has a pronounced surface expression in the Tertiary formations of the area near Ancon, Peru. The limits of the tectonic displacements and the tsunami-generating area were determined by a reverse wave-refraction method, refracting waves from Chimbote, Callao-Lima, San Juan, and Honolulu. The investigation revealed that the tsunami was generated by displacements of crustal blocks with a total area of 13,000 sq. km. Seismic and water motion data indicated that the uplifted portion of the crustal block was on the continental side of the rift. The energy of the main earthquake was estimated to be 1.122·1023 ergs. The energy of the aftershocks was estimated to be 2.357·1020 ergs. The tsunami energy was calculated to be 6.8·1019 ergs, or of the earthquake energy. 相似文献
13.
14.
Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Mohammad Heidarzadeh Moharram D. Pirooz Nasser H. Zaker Ahmet C. Yalciner Mohammad Mokhtari Asad Esmaeily 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(8-9):774-786
Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524. 相似文献
15.
Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Can Elmar BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)
1 .IntroductionTurkeywasstruckbytwomajorearthquakeeventsonAugust 1 7thandNovember 1 2th ,1 999,namedIzmit (Mw=7.4 )andD櫣ｚｃｅ (Mw=7.2 )earthquakes,respectively .ThestationsoperatedbytheGeneralDirectorateofDisasterAffairs,theKandilliObservatoryandEarthquakeResearchInstituteofIstanbulTechnicalUniversitymeasuredatleast 2 7stronggroundmotionsfortheIzmitearthquakewithin 2 0 0kmofthefault.AsignificantsegmentofthefaultrupturedintheareabetweenthewestofGolcukandtheeastofLakeSapanca .Inthesou… 相似文献
16.
2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生Mw8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。 相似文献
17.
Bathing beaches are usually the first to suffer disasters when tsunamis occur, owing to their proximity to the sea. Several large seismic fault zones are located off the coast of China. The impact of each tsunami scenario on Chinese bathing beaches is different. In this study, numerical models of the worst tsunami scenarios associated with seismic fault zones were considered to assess the tsunami hazard of bathing beaches in China. Numerical results show that tsunami waves from the Pacific Ocean could affect the East China Sea coast through gaps between the Ryukyu Islands. The Zhejiang and Shanghai coasts would be threatened by a tsunami from Ryukyu Trench, and the coasts of Hainan and Guangdong provinces would be threatened by a tsunami from the Manila Trench. The tsunami hazard associated with the Philippine Trench scenario needs particular attention. Owing to China’s offshore topography, the sequential order of tsunami arrival times to coastal provinces in several tsunami scenarios is almost the same. According to the tsunami hazard analysis results, Yalongwan Beach and eight other bathing beaches are at the highest hazard level. A high-resolution numerical calculation model was established to analyze the tsunami physical characteristics for the high-risk bathing beaches. To explore mitigating effects of a tsunami disaster, this study simulated tsunami propagation with the addition of seawalls. The experimental results show that the tsunami prevention seawalls constructed in an appropriate shallow water location have some effect on reducing tsunami hazard. Seawalls separated by a certain distance work even better. The analysis results can provide a scientific reference for subsequent preventive measures such as facility construction and evacuation. 相似文献
18.
在COMCOT海啸数学模型中加入潮汐边界条件,建立了东中国海天文潮与海啸耦合数学模型。在琉球海沟内侧设计震级为7.6级的海底地震,根据地震板块的错动方向不同,设计正波先行与负波先行两种海啸波,通过调整海啸波发生时间,使海啸波波峰遭遇温州湾天文高潮位。将天文潮与海啸耦合模型计算结果与线性叠加计算结果进行比较,结果表明:无论正波先行还是负波先行,天文潮与海啸耦合计算相比线性叠加的结果,海啸波的到达时间均有所提前;而从海啸波波高来看,线性叠加的计算结果则比耦合计算结果偏高。 相似文献
19.
应用内外解匹配的方法和驻相法推导了柱坐标系下地震引起的水面波动方程的解,即推导了地震海啸波生成与传播的理论方程,并对越洋地震海啸理论方程进行了求解。基于Boussinesq方程出发,建立了二维越洋海啸波传播数学模型,并对越洋海啸进行了数值计算,计算方法采用有限差分方法,差分格式采用交替方向隐格式(Alternating Direction Implicit即ADI方法)。利用越洋海啸计算模式对发生在大洋中的地震海啸进行了模拟,将数值模拟结果与地震海啸波理论方程的计算结果进行了比较,两种计算结果吻合较好。 相似文献
20.
Abstract Marine positioning is relevant for several aspects of tsunami research, observation, and prediction. These include accurate positioning of instruments on the ocean bottom for determining the deep‐water signature of the tsunami, seismic observational setups to measure the earthquake parameters, equipment to determine the tsunami characteristics during the propagation phase, and instruments to map the vertical uplift and subsidence that occurs during a dip‐slip earthquake. In the accurate calculation of coastal tsunami run‐up through numerical models, accurate bathymetry is needed, not only near the coast (for tsunami run‐up) but also in the deep ocean (for tsunami generation and propagation). If the bathymetry is wrong in the source region, errors will accumulate and will render the numerical calculations inaccurate. Without correct and detailed run‐up values on the various coastlines, tsunami prediction for actual events will lead to false alarms and loss of public confidence. 相似文献