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Summary. Present-day plate motions imply that about 240 km3 of oceanic lithosphere is created by sea-floor spreading and destroyed by subduction per year. A greater volume of asthenosphere will be dragged along by plate motions. Given the fluxes generated at plate boundaries, the horizontal direction and net rate of counterflow required to maintain mass balance is determined globally by a simple analytical model. Time-dependent calculations indicate that the motions are approximately valid in the hotspot reference frame over the past 5 Myr. Under most plates, the model return flow is opposite to the lithospheric motion in the hotspot frame. The counterflow dominates the resisting stresses to plate motion, so driving force models based on plate drag alone are not valid where the directions of plate motion and counterflow differ. The most marked departure of the two directions is under the North American plate. The model counterflow directions indicate that the sources of mantle hotspots are not located within the asthenosphere. Model flux balances demonstrate exchange of material between asthenospheric reservoirs located beneath different plates. Suggestions of southward asthenospheric motion under the North Atlantic, based on physical features around Iceland and strontium isotope geochemistry, are consistent with the direction of flow predicted by the model.  相似文献   

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Complexity in a cellular model of river avulsion   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
We propose a new model of river avulsion that emphasizes simplicity, self-organization, and unprogrammed behavior rather than detailed simulation. The model runs on a fixed cellular grid and tracks two elevations in each cell, a high elevation representing the channel (levee) top and a low one representing the channel bottom. The channel aggrades in place until a superelevation threshold for avulsion is met. After an avulsion is triggered a new flow path is selected by steepest descent based on the low values of elevation. Flow path depends sensitively on floodplain topography, particularly the presence of former abandoned channels. Several behavioral characteristics emerge consistently from this simple model: (1) a tendency of the active flow to switch among a small number of channel paths, which we term the active channel set, over extended periods, leading to clustering and formation of multistory sand bodies in the resulting deposits; (2) a tendency for avulsed channels to return to their previous paths, so that new channel length tends to be generated in relatively short segments; and (3) avulsion-related sediment storage and release, leading to pulsed sediment output even for constant input. Each of these behaviors is consistent with observations from depositional river systems. A single-valued threshold produces a wide variety of avulsion sizes and styles. Larger “nodal” avulsions are rarer because pre-existing floodplain topography acts to steer flow back to the active channel. Channel stacking pattern is very sensitive to floodplain deposition. This work highlights the need to develop models of floodplain evolution at large time and space scales to complement the improving models of river channel evolution.  相似文献   

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Implications of a percolation model for earthquake 'nucleation'   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
A percolation model is applied to the explanation of some of the qualitative and quantitative aspects associated with the recent observations of earthquake 'nucleation'. An additional assumption is introduced that nucleation starts at the critical point of percolation. The model explains the order of magnitude of the seismic moment release during the nucleation, the dependence of the seismic moment of the main shock on the duration of the nucleation process, and the observation that the fraction of the moment release during the nucleation has no systematic variation with the size of the main shock. The model also suggests that the source time function of the nucleation phase may be complex, and also that not all earthquakes are accompanied by a nucleation process, which is supported by observational results. By assuming that there exists a scale invariance associated with the criticality, a Widom scaling model is proposed to describe the electromagnetic emission during earthquake rupture.  相似文献   

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??This article discusses the integration of two models, namely, the Physical Forest Fire Spread (PhFFS) and the High Definition Wind Model (HDWM), into a Geographical Information System-based interface. The resulting tool automates data acquisition, preprocesses spatial data, launches the aforementioned models and displays the corresponding results in a unique environment. Our implementation uses the Python language and Esri’s ArcPy library to extend the functionality of ArcMap 10.4. The PhFFS is a simplified 2D physical wildland fire spread model based on conservation equations, with convection and radiation as heat transfer mechanisms. It also includes some 3D effects. The HDWM arises from an asymptotic approximation of the Navier–Stokes equations, and provides a 3D wind velocity field in an air layer above the terrain surface. Both models can be run in standalone or coupled mode. Finally, the simulation of a real fire in Galicia (Spain) confirms that the tool developed is efficient and fully operational.  相似文献   

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Damage and rheology in a fibre-bundle model   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
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Spatial interaction: a statistical mechanism model   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
1 IntroductionSpatial interaction is an important problem in modern geography. A. Wilson (1970) has deduced the mathematical formulation of spatial interaction from the principle of maximum entropy; but the mechanism is not clear. In the past 10 years the basis of the model of maximum entropy is challenged, since one considers geographical system as an open system. In an open system, it is meanless for the entropy of the system to reach maximum. The basic aspect of this paper, which is based …  相似文献   

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Larsen, T. & Ugland, K. I. (Polar Research 2 n.s., 117–118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case lor polar bears. Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar bear biologists. An APL programme for such projections is available.  相似文献   

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SWH双源蒸散模型模拟效果验证及不确定性分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
SWH模型是在经典Shuttleworth-Wallace双源蒸散模型的基础上发展起来的蒸散模型。过去的研究结果表明在站点尺度上SWH模型表现出较高模拟精度,但有关模型对主要参数及驱动变量的敏感性以及模型模拟的不确定性来源等缺乏深入理解与认识。本文通过与51个陆地生态系统站点多年的蒸散观测数据对比,在季尺度、年尺度上验证了全国范围内SWH模型的模拟效果,并分析了关键参数和驱动变量对模型不确定性的贡献大小。结果表明:SWH模型在区域尺度上取得了较好的模拟效果,模拟蒸散与实测值R2均在0.75以上。模型各参数中,冠层导度估算涉及的两个参数对蒸散模拟不确定性影响较大;驱动数据中,归一化植被指数对蒸散模拟不确定性影响较大。尽管部分数据(如降水)因插补存在较大的误差,但总体上气候驱动数据对蒸散模拟的不确定性的贡献仍低于NDVI。  相似文献   

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On the nutations of a more realistic earth model   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
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The paper describes the development of a new methodological approach for simulating geographic processes through the development of a data model that represents a process. This methodology complements existing approaches to dynamic modelling, which focus on the states of the system at each time step, by storing and representing the processes that are implicit in the model. The data model, called nen, focuses existing modelling approaches on representing and storing process information, which provides advantages for querying and analysing processes. The flux simulation framework was created utilizing the nen data model to represent processes. This simulator includes basic classes for developing a domain specific simulation and a set of query tools for inquiring after the results of a simulation. The methodology is prototyped with a watershed runoff simulation.  相似文献   

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A plutonic porphyry gold deposit model is proposed that is imilar to the plutonic porphyry copper deposit model. However, unlike the plutonic porphyry copper deposit model, the proposed model is deficient in copper and contains less than 1 percent total sulfides. In the proposed model, gold is accompanied by scheelite, molybdenite, arsenopyrite, a variety of bismuth sulfides, tellurides, and native bismuth. The host rock varies from granite to granodiorite stock. Most of the ore is in the pluton. Deposits cited as examples of the proposed model are the Mokrsko deposit in Czechoslovakia, the Fort Knox deposit in the United States, and the Dublin Gulch deposit in Canada. In each of these deposits, pervasive potassic or phyllic alteration zones accompany the gold ore, which is disseminated in quartz-rich stockworks, veinlet swarms, and veins. Tonnages of gold-bearing material are large, but grades are low in the cited deposits. The proposed model is distinct from other gold deposit models because of the low Cu to Au ratio and the association of Au, Bi, W, and Mo.  相似文献   

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Curie-temperature depth estimation using a self-similar magnetization model   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
The Earth's crust is magnetized down to the Curie-temperature depth at about 10 to 50 km. This limited depth extent of the crustal magnetization is discernible in the power spectra of magnetic maps of South Africa and Central Asia. At short wavelengths, the power increases as rapidly towards longer wavelengths as expected for a self-similar magnetized crust with unlimited depth extent. Above wavelengths of about 100 km the power starts increasing less rapidly, indicating the absence of deep-seated sources. To quantify this effect we derive the theoretical power spectrum due to a slab carved out of a self-similar magnetization distribution. This model power spectrum matches the power spectra of South Africa and Central Asia for a self-similarity parameter of β = 4 and Curie temperature depths of 15 to 20 km.  相似文献   

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