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1.
There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/BMSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/FMSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.  相似文献   

2.
Fish biomass is a critical component of fishery stock assessment and management and it is often estimated from ocean primary production（OPP）. However, the relationship between the biomass of a fish stock and OPP is always complicated due to a variety of trophic controls in the ecosystem. In this paper, we examine the quantitative relationship between the biomass of chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） and net primary production（NPP） in the southern East China Sea（SECS）, using catch and effort data from the Chinese mainland large light-purse seine fishery logbook and NPP derived from remote sensing. We further discuss the mechanisms of trophic control in regulating this relationship. The results show a significant non-linear relationship exists between standardized CPUE（Catch-Per-Unit-Effort） and NPP（P〈0.05）. This relationship can be described by a convex parabolic curve, where the biomass of chub mackerel increases with NPP to a maximum and then decreases when the NPP exceeds this point. The results imply that the ecosystem in the SECS is subject to complex trophic controls. We speculate that the change in abundance of key species at intermediate trophic levels and/or interspecific competition might contribute to this complex relationship.  相似文献   

3.
应用Catch-MSY模型评估印度洋蓝枪鱼资源   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Catch-MSY模型可仅依靠渔获量数据进行渔业资源评估,在数据缺乏状况下能暂时替代标准资源评估模型。本研究以印度洋蓝枪鱼(Makaira nigricans)为例,根据有、无信息的内禀增长率r和环境容纳量K的先验分布,设立15组情景进行模型灵敏度分析、资源评估和预测。结果表明,参数r和K呈强烈的负相关,而最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield,MSY)与参数r呈正相关;数据时间序列长度对评估结果影响有限,而模型对起止年渔获量较为敏感。资源状况评估表明,印度洋蓝枪鱼资源生物量状况良好,即B2015/BMSY大于1;而开发状况除其中两种情景外,均为过度捕捞,即F2015/FMSY大于1。资源预测表明,为使未来10年内B/BMSY>1的概率超过50%,需将渔获量缩减至当前渔获量的90%(13.86 kt);考虑到该模型在数据缺乏状况下会更加保守,若将当前渔获量的100%～110%(15.40～16.94 kt)设为管理目标,则未来5年内B/BMSY >1的概率超过50%。  相似文献   

4.
Schools of horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis, sardine Sardinops sagax and round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi were surveyed by conventional echo-integration along systematic transects. The transects were surveyed twice, in opposite directions. Clupeoid biomass was concentrated in a few dense aggregations, whereas horse mackerel were less dense and distributed over larger areas. The influence of aggregation patterns of the different species on the precision of the acoustic estimates was analysed with respect to spatial variability and diurnal effects. Isotropic variograms computed from values of acoustic back-scattering strength showed little or no structure for all three species. Indicator variograms showed relatively large structures (>15 miles) for all three species at the lowest cut-off level, confirming the influence of high values on the variograms. The autocorrelation range decreased with an increase in cut-off value for horse mackerel, whereas variograms of sardine and round herring showed no structure at larger cut-off values. There were large variances in estimated biomass for sardine (77%) and round herring (90%) between surveys, whereas biomass estimates of horse mackerel were relatively similar between surveys.  相似文献   

5.
Short-lived species are extremely dependent on the seasonal and interannual variability of environmental conditions, and determining their stock status is often difficult. This study investigates the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on the stock of octopus Octopus vulgaris in Senegalese waters over a 10-year period from 1996 to 2005. Monthly catches-at-age were estimated based on catch-at-weight data and a polymodal decomposition constrained by a given growth curve. Octopus recruitments and fishing mortalities were then estimated using a catch-at-age analysis performed on a monthly basis. Yield and biomass per recruit were simulated using a Thompson and Bell model and used to generate a diagnostic of the fishery's impacts. Results indicate that the high interannual and seasonal variability of the octopus stock biomass is linked to the spring recruitment event, the annual intensity of which was significantly correlated with the coastal upwelling index and sea surface temperature. Yield per recruit varied seasonally but remained almost unchanged from one year to the next. Even when catches vary strongly according to recruitment, the octopus stock appears to be consistently fully exploited, or slightly overexploited in some years. In this context of environmental variability, usual indicators such as the maximum yield per recruit, and the related fishing mortality and spawning potential ratio, remain useful for fisheries management purposes.  相似文献   

6.
Research surveys of Cape horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis abundance on the south coast of South Africa are complicated because changes in the species' vertical and horizontal distribution limit the value of stock assessments based a single survey method. Annual bottom trawl surveys conducted in spring provide estimates of the abundance of fish close to the bottom over trawlable grounds. Between 1991 and 1994, hydroacoustic surveys conducted in spring have been used to estimate the pelagic portion of the stock, as well as the portion over untrawlable grounds. These two research datasets, as well as data from purse-seine, mid water and bottom trawl commercial landings, are reviewed to elucidate distribution patterns of horse mackerel and their migratory and spawning strategies. The problems and advantages of bottom trawl and acoustic surveys are discussed in the context of fluctuations in estimates of the size of the stock between 1991 and 1994 and the prevailing environmental conditions. It is concluded that combined acoustic and bottom trawl surveys are the only effective means of surveying horse mackerel, and that effort should be concentrated east of 22°E to assess the spawner stock. It is suggested that research effort directed at improving understanding of exchanges between West Coast (including Namibia) and South Coast population of horse mackerel, as well as of the role of vertical migrations in modulating these exchanges, would be beneficial.  相似文献   

7.
张畅  陈新军 《海洋学报》2019,41(2):99-106
澳洲鲐（Scomber australasicus）是西北太平洋重要的中上层经济鱼类,生命周期相对较短,资源量受补充量影响明显,了解澳洲鲐太平洋群系补充量状况对掌握其资源量及确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文利用产卵场1（30°~32°N,130°~132°E）海表面温度（sea surface temperature,SST1）、产卵场2（34°~35°N,138°~141°E）海表面温度（SST2）、索饵场（35°~45°N,140°~160°E）海表面温度（SST3）、潮位差（tidal range,TR）、太平洋年代际涛动（Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）和亲体量（spawning stock biomass,SSB）6个影响因子任意组合与补充量构建多个模型,运用贝叶斯模型平均法（Bayesian model averaging,BMA）分析各个环境因子对资源补充量的解释能力,并预测其补充量的变化。结果表明,SSB对补充量具有最长期且稳定的解释能力,其次是SST3,PDO、TR、SST2、SST1也对补充量模型具有一定的解释能力。SST3是环境因子中影响最大的因子,可能是由于补充群体在索饵场内生活时间较长,索饵场温度对仔鱼或鱼卵的生长存活有较大的影响。研究认为,基于BMA的组合预报综合考虑了各个模型的优势,优于单一模型,可用于澳洲鲐资源补充量的预测。  相似文献   

8.
Recent studies have provided evidence that the Cape horse mackerel Trachurus trachwus capensis in South African waters is a unit stock. Therefore, an age and growth study of the entire stock throughout its distributional range was undertaken in 1988/89. Growth is described by the equation

Lt = 487,989 (1 – e?0.556(t – 0,229)) mm.  相似文献   

9.
The vertical distribution and migration of the Cape horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis were investigated on the basis of midwater and bottom trawl collections taken over diel cycles at two sites on South Africa's south coast. Attempts were also made to investigate the relationship between bottom trawl catch rates and acoustic abundance estimates. During the first cycle, horse mackerel were dispersed in midwater during the night, and towards sunrise they coalesced into schools and migrated to the seabed where they remained throughout the day. During that cycle, horse mackerel did not appear to feed, despite the prevalence of potential food, mainly Calanus copepods and euphausiid larvae, in the water column. In contrast, during the second cycle, horse mackerel remained near the seabed during the 24-h experiment, but they exhibited a marked feeding periodicity, with most feeding taking place in the late afternoon. They appeared to select for larger copepods in the water column. Several reasons are advanced to explain the difference in the vertical migratory behaviour of horse mackerel between the two sites, on the basis of the vertical distribution of their potential prey. Diel differences in acoustic estimates of horse mackerel abundance were significantly reduced after applying an acoustic deadzone correction factor. Trawl catches, however, could not be reconciled with acoustic estimates during the day, when horse mackerel were too close to the bottom for effective echo-integration.  相似文献   

10.
The northern Benguela stock of sardine Sardinops sagax used to be considered one of the major clupeoid stocks of the world; it supported an average annual catch of >700 000 tons throughout the 1960s. The stock has been in a depressed state for more than two decades, as demonstrated by annual catches that averaged around 50 000 tons between 1978 and 1989 and only slightly more in the 1990s. It has experienced fluctuations in abundance of several orders of magnitude during the most recent decade. Population size increased until 1992, when the acoustic estimate of biomass was about 750 000 tons. Catches increased accordingly, averaging 100 000 tons between 1992 and 1995, but from 1992 to 1996 the stock was in decline and the lowest annual catch in the history of the fishery was taken in 1996. Although there was a small increase during the last three years of the decade, the stock remains seriously depleted. Survey-based recruitment indices suggest that the changes in the 1990s were initiated by fluctuations in recruitment, but the decline was almost certainly exacerbated by continued fishing. Poor recruitment and decreasing catch rates between 1993 and 1996 in a number of other key resources suggest that system-wide environmental changes were an important factor in the decline of the sardine stock at that time. Anomalous oceanographic conditions, such as extensive hypoxic shelf waters in 1993/94 and a Benguela Niño in 1995, support this conclusion.  相似文献   

11.
In the existing management procedure for the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis resource, an initial Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is set at the start of the fishing season in January, before the year's recruitment of 0-year-old fish, an important component of the catch, is known. Recruitment is therefore assumed to be equal to the observed median. This TAC may be revised in May or June, after the actual recruitment has been estimated. This procedure incorporates a risk that, if recruitment is below the median, the stock could be adversely depleted before the mid-year recruitment survey. A simulation approach is used in this paper to assess the possible benefits, in terms of average annual catch and interannual fluctuations in catch, of three different methods of predicting recruitment earlier in the season, if such methods were available. The results show that the average annual catch could be increased theoretically by up to 48 per cent if a very precise prediction (CV = 0,1) could be made at the start of the fishing season. In practice, more modest improvements of 21 per cent by prerecruit surveys undertaken in March each year, or 16 per cent by means of a two-class ordinal prediction with 70 per cent success, may be attainable. However, these improvements would result in increased interannual fluctuations in catch, a situation which may be detrimental to the fishing industry.  相似文献   

12.
Direct surveys of Cape anchovy Engraulis capensis spawner and recruit biomass in South African coastal waters were made with a 38-kHz calibrated echo-sounder and custom-built digital echo-integrator. The spawning surveys were conducted each November between 1983 and 1985, predominantly on the Agulhas Bank. Recruit surveys were conducted in autumn 1985 and 1986, mainly on the West Coast. The spawning fish were widely distributed across the continental shelf, whereas recruit concentrations were highest close inshore. Employing a target strength per kilogramme expression for herring Clupea harengus, the spawning biomass in 1984 was estimated at 1,06 million tons and that in 1985 at 0,98 million tons. Similarly, recruit biomass in May/June 1985 and June 1986 was estimated at 310 and 466 thousand tons respectively. From an analysis of error in the latter two estimates, it was considered approximately 80 per cent certain that the recruitment in 1986 was greater than in 1985. The estimates of spawning biomass are 3–4 times higher than earlier estimates made by Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) of commercial catch data, and suggest that the stock is less seriously threatened by present catch levels than was indicated by VPA. It is concluded from the distribution and age structure of the spawning population that the VPA estimates are invalid because of the failure of commercial vessels to sample the major part of the adult population.  相似文献   

13.
The recruitment rate of Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, was studied to test the hypothesis that long-term environmental variation (regime shifts) had a significant impact on density-dependent processes governing the anchovy recruitment during the period 1963–2004. On the basis of previous defined regimes and turning points for the Humboldt Current System, we identified two groups of years for increased recruitment of anchoveta (1963–1971 and 1986–2004), and one unfavorable period (1972–1985). A common intercept and significantly different slopes were found when the recruitment rate was plotted as a function of the spawning stock biomass during those groups of years, suggesting that density-dependent effects on recruitment were affected during different climate regimes. The favorable (unfavorable) regime was characterized by higher (lower) zooplankton volumes, and with a higher frequency of colder (warmer) waters. Dome-shaped relationships between recruitment rate, spawning stock biomass and SST, were detected with a Generalized Additive Model for the favorable regime. Thus, recruitment could be explained by non-linear effects of environmental variables. Ultimately, climatic regimes are affecting the density-dependent effects on recruitment of anchoveta and the mechanisms involved may be associated with changes in the carrying capacity of the spawning habitat of anchoveta off Peru, which in turn are related with the effects of cold and warm regimes.  相似文献   

14.
A particle-size spectrum model is used to estimate standing stocks of some pelagic fish from measurements of phytoplankton chlorophyll in two exploited regions in southern Africa (southern Benguela and off South West Africa/Namibia) and in two unexploited regions (the Agulhas Bank and off the eastern Cape Province). The model is based on the assumption that equal biomasses occur in logarithmically equal size classes in the pelagic marine environment. Phytoplankton, with an equivalent spherical diameter ranging from 1 to 128 μm, occupy 21 size classes on the logarithmic scale. Two different size ranges are assumed for some commercial, pelagic fish species, equivalent to exploitation with two different purse-seine mesh sizes. A mesh of 12,7 mm would catch 8 size classes of pilchard, horse mackerel and anchovy whereas a mesh of 32 mm would catch only 3,3 size classes of pilchard and horse mackerel. From the model, the potential biomass of these commercial pelagic fish is estimated, after allowing for the presence of other commercial and non-commercial fish and other taxa in the exploited size range. Total pelagic fish production is estimated by assuming constant turnover rates of 1·y?1 and 1,5·y?1 when exploited with 32 and 12,7 mm mesh nets respectively. Consideration of the maximum and mean reported catches in the exploited areas indicates that only some 25 per cent of pelagic fish production is exploitable by man. On this basis, the unexploited Agulhas Bank region may yield some 400 000 metric tons (wet) of pelagic fish of the species considered, and the East Coast region some 90 000 tons. Exploitation in these regions cannot be recommended, because the Agulhas Bank is an important spawning ground for many pelagic species, and the fish in both regions probably act as a reserve buffer for the heavily exploited pelagic resource of the Western Cape.  相似文献   

15.
The validity of abundance estimates from hydroacoustic surveys relies, inter alia, on the ability of the fishing gear on the research vessel to sample non-selectively. This study compares the length frequencies of Cape horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis taken in Namibian waters by the R.V. Welwitchia and commercial midwater trawlers. Results indicate that the length distributions of catches taken by the Welwitchia were significantly different from those from commercial trawlers, with a greater proportion of fish >25 cm being sampled by the latter. Also, the biomass estimated per length-class from hydroacoustic surveys over the period 1994–2000 was compared with those from annual landings of the commercial fishery. The length distribution of horse mackerel in purse-seine catches compares favourably with those from the research vessel. However, comparisons with the midwater trawl catches indicated that the length frequencies obtained from research vessels during the years 1994–1997 underestimated the number of large fish in the population and biased the biomass in those years. From 1998 to 2000 the bias was negligible. The magnitude of the error varied between years, but it remained fairly low. To compensate for this bias, length distribution data from midwater trawlers should be integrated into the acoustic biomass calculation procedure.  相似文献   

16.
Evidence supports the hypothesis that two climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Japan/East Sea, have affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources from 1960 to 2000. Changes in both mixed layer depth (MLD) and primary production were detected in the Japan/East Sea after 1976. The 1976 regime shift appears to have caused the biomass replacement with changes in catch production of major exploited fisheries resources, including Pacific saury, Pacific sardine and filefish. Both fisheries yield and fish distribution are reflected in these decadal fluctuations. In the 1960s and 1990s, common squid dominated the catches whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, it was replaced by walleye pollock. In the post-1988 regime shift, the distribution of horse mackerel shifted westward and southward and its distributional overlap with common mackerel decreased. The habitat of Pacific sardine also shifted away from mackerel habitats during this period. To evaluate changes in the organization and structure of the ecosystem in the Japan/East Sea, a mass-balanced model, Ecopath, was employed. Based on two mass-balanced models, representing before (1970–75) and after (1978–84) the 1976 regime shift, the weighted mean trophic level of catch increased from 3.09 before to 3.28 after. Total biomass of species groups in the Japan/East Sea ecosystem increased by 15% and total catch production increased by 48% due to the 1976 regime shift. The largest changes occurred at mid-trophic levels, occupied by fishes and cephalopods. The dominant predatory species shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the 1976 regime shift. It is concluded that the climatic regime shifts caused changes in the structure of the ecosystem and the roles of major species, as well as, large variations in biomass and production of fisheries resources.  相似文献   

17.
东海南部海洋净初级生产力与鲐鱼资源量变动关系的研究   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  
官文江  陈新军  高峰  李纲 《海洋学报》2013,35(5):121-127
海洋初级生产力决定海洋渔业资源的潜在产量,我国应用海洋初级生产力方法估算渔业资源量亦已取得不少研究成果,但海洋生态系统中的营养控制机制复杂多样,将影响海洋初级生产力与鱼类资源量的关系。本文利用中国大型灯光围网渔业在东海南部渔场的鲐鱼(Scomber japonicus)捕捞数据与海洋净初级生产力的遥感资料分析了鲐鱼资源量变化与净初级生产力的关系,探讨了其生态系统营养控制机制。研究结果表明,净初级生产力与标准化CPUE(Catch Per Unit Effort)不存在显著的线性关系(P>0.05),但呈显著非线性关系(P<0.05),且这种非线性关系表现为倒抛物线,即鲐鱼资源量随净初级生产力的增加而提高,但当净初级生产力进一步增加,鲐鱼资源量则呈下降趋势。净初级生产力与标准化CPUE呈显著的倒抛物线关系表明生态系统存在上行控制机制,但并非受该机制完全控制。种间竞争或浮游动物资源量的变动均可能引起鲐鱼资源的相对丰度与净初级生产力呈倒抛物线关系。  相似文献   

18.
There were climatic regime shifts over the North Pacific in 1976 and 1988 which affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters. Precipitation in Korean waters showed a decadal scale climatic jump, especially of Ullungdo Island, reflecting the regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific. The variation was also detected in East Asian atmospheric systems. The Aleutian Low and North Pacific High Pressure Systems showed substantial changes in 1976 and around 1987–89. 1976 was an unusually warm year for Korea; mean sea surface temperature (SST) was higher than ‘normal’ and was accompanied by a northward shift in the thermal front. Post 1976, the volume transport of the Kuroshio Current increased and higher seawater and air temperatures persisted until 1988. Other shifts occurred after 1976 such as an increase in mixed layer depth (MLD) and biological changes in the ecosystem of Korean waters including decreases in spring primary production and an increase in autumn primary production. Primary production increased again after 1988, and was followed by a significant increase in zooplankton biomass after 1991. The 1976 regime shift was manifested by a decreased biomass and production of saury, but an increase in biomass and production of sardine and filefish in Korean waters. After 1988, recruitment, biomass, and production of sardine collapsed while those of mackerel substantially increased. Based on these observations, hypotheses on the relationship between the climate-driven oceanic changes and changes in fisheries resources were developed and are discussed.  相似文献   

19.
The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F 0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F 4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F 40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F 0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.  相似文献   

20.
An age-structured population model was used to examine the variability of yield created by randomly fluctuating recruitment success in the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis stock. Three different harvesting strategies were examined: (1) constant age-specific pattern of fishing mortality, (2) constant quota with effort limitation and (3) annual quota adjustments by means of an F msy procedure. Variable recruitment was generated by a stochastic stock-recruit relationship, and mean yields, mean spawner biomasses and probability distributions of yield were calculated at each exploitation level after 150 projections from the population structure of anchovy in 1981. Under conditions of constant fishing mortality, the variability of yield increased continuously as the exploitation rate was increased. The maximum average yield (MAY) is the stochastic equivalent of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of deterministic models, but an attempt to sustain this MAY by a constant quota resulted in a very high risk of stock collapse. An Fmsy policy based on pre-season adult biomass resulted in more variable yields than were obtained at the equivalent constant fishing mortality at age. Stability of yield therefore demanded the acceptance of lower average yields than could be attained in the long term by quota adjustment. It was considered that the South African purse-seine industry could not cope with the wide fluctuations of yield necessary to attain MAY. Specific management policies sufficiently robust to withstand both fluctuating recruitment success and the uncertainties in the parameters of working population models would be required.  相似文献   

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