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1.
Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a ML = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the ML = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.  相似文献   

2.
A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.  相似文献   

3.
There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.  相似文献   

4.
Summary. The Turkish Dilatancy Projects (TDP1 in 1979 and TDP2 in 1980) recorded small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault with closely-spaced networks of three-component seismometers in order to investigate the possibility of diagnosing dilatancy from its effects of shear-wave propagation. This paper examines the polarizations of shear wavetrains recorded in the shear-wave window immediately above the earthquake foci. Abrupt changes in the orientation and/or ellipticity of the shear-wave polarizations are almost always observed during the first few cycles following the initial shear-wave arrival on each seismogram. The horizontal projections of the polarizations of the first shear-wave arrivals at any given station show nearly parallel alignments with approximately the same orientations at each of the recording sites (with one exception). It is difficult to explain this uniform alignment over a wide area in terms of scattering at the irregular surface topography or by earthquake focal mechanisms. We demonstrate that the shear-wave splitting is likely to be the result of anisotropy in the region above the earthquake foci, which could produce polarizations displaying the observed alignments. The temporal change of the azimuth of alignment, observed at one locality between 1979 and 1980, may be due to the release of a local stress anomaly by a very near earthquake.  相似文献   

5.
Summary. Almost all shear-waves from local earthquakes recorded on closely-spaced three-component seismometer networks deployed near the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, in two experiments in 1979 and 1980, display shear-wave splitting. The observations are consistent with the presence of EDA (extensive-dilatancy anisotropy), distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks aligned by the regional stress field. Temporal changes in the stress-field, which may occur before an earthquake, may modify the geometry and possibly the orientation of the EDA-microcracks, and lead to corresponding changes in the behaviour of the split shear-waves. A third experiment was undertaken in 1984 to investigate EDA further and to search for possible temporal variations of the polarization of the leading split shear-wave and the time delay between split shear-waves. Observations indicate that the polarization alignments, which are parallel to the strike of the parallel vertical EDA-cracks, are unaltered between 1979 and 1984, implying that the direction of the regional stress field has not changed significantly. Temporal changes in the stress field are more likely to cause changes in the crack density and/or aspect ratio, which would result in a corresponding change in time delay between the split shear-waves. We examine observations of time delay in relation to their propagation path with respect to the crack geometry since it is then possible to separate the effects of changes in crack density and changes in aspect ratio. With this procedure, a small temporal variation of time delays is found between 1979 and 1984, consistent with a decrease in crack density, and consequently a relaxation of stress, in this time period. No evidence was found for any observable variation of time delay over a six month observation span in 1984. We suggest that analysis of repeated shear-wave VSPs offers a technique for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes.  相似文献   

6.
Summary. The section of the North Anatolian Fault lying near the city of Izmit, at the east of the Marmara Sea, has been identified as a seismic gap and the possible site of a future major earthquake. Previously published studies of records from an earthquake swarm within the gap (TDP1 and TDP2) provided the first evidence that shear-wave splitting occurs in earthquake source regions, a conclusion since verified by many studies at other locations. A third field study (TDP3) was mounted in the Izmit region during the summer of 1984. Observations were made over an eight-month period and included geomagnetic and geoelectric measurements in addition to a series of observations utilising dense arrays of three-component seismometers. Earthquake activity in the principal study area was monitored over a period of eight months. Records showed features similar to those observed in the earlier studies. In particular: (1) almost all shear waves emerging within the shear-wave window displayed shear-wave splitting; and (2) the polarizations of the first arriving (faster) split shear-waves showed sub-parallel alignments, characteristic of propagation through a distribution of parallel vertical cracks striking perpendicular to the minimum compressional stress.
These and other observations support the conclusion of earlier studies – that the upper crust is pervaded by distributions of micro-cracks aligned by stress, known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy. A search for time dependence in shear-wave phenomena has revealed temporal variations in the delays between the split shear-waves throughout the course of the TDP3 study, but as yet this has not been correlated with specific earthquake activity.  相似文献   

7.
53 local earthquakes recorded at 2.5 km depth in the Cajon Pass scientific borehole are analysed for shear-wave splitting. The time delays between the split shear waves can be positively identified for 32 of the events. Modelling these observations of polarizations and time delays using genetic algorithms suggests that the anisotropic structure near Cajon Pass has orthorhombic symmetry. The polarization of the shear waves and the inferred strike of the stress-aligned fluid-filled intergranular microcracks and pores suggests that the maximum horizontal compressional stress direction is approximately N13°W. This is consistent with previous results from earthquake source mechanisms and the right-lateral strike-slip motion on the nearby San Andreas Fault, but not with stresses measured within the uppermost 3 km of the borehole. This study suggests that the San Andreas Fault is driven by deeper tectonic stresses and the present understanding of a weak and frictionless San Andreas Fault may need to be modified. The active secondary faulting and folding close to the fault are probably driven by the relatively shallow stress as measured in the 3.5 km deep borehole.  相似文献   

8.
The basis for earthquake prediction   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Summary. Recent advances in understanding the behaviour of shear waves propagating in the crust make the routine prediction of earthquakes seem practicable. Accumulating evidence suggests that most of the Earth's crust is pervaded by distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks that are aligned by the contemporary stress-field so that the cracked rockmass is effectively anisotropic to seismic waves. This causes shear-waves to split, and shear-wave splitting is observed whenever shear-waves propagating along suitable raypaths in the crust are recorded by three-component instruments. These distributions of cracks are known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. Many characteristics of the crack- and stress-geometry can be monitored by analyzing shear-waves propagating through the cracked rockmass. Observations of temporal variations of the behaviour of shear-wave splitting in seismic gaps confirm these hypotheses, and suggest that stress changes before earthquakes may be monitored by analyzing shear-waves. In particular, monitoring earthquake preparation zones with three-component shear-wave vertical-seismic-profiles could lead to techniques for the routine prediction of earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
Summary. Three-component seismograms of small local earthquakes recorded in the Peter the First Range of mountains near Garm, Tadzhikistan SSR, display shear-wave splitting similar to that previously observed near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. The Peter the First Range is in a region of compressional tectonics, whereas the North Anatolian Fault is a comparatively simple strike-slip fault. Detailed analysis of the Turkish records suggests that the splitting is diagnostic of crack-induced anisotropy caused by vertical microcracks aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Preliminary examination of paper records from Garm shows that most shear waves arriving within the shear-wave window display shear-wave splitting, and that the polarizations of leading shear-waves are consistently aligned in a NE/SW direction. The area is complicated and the tectonics are not well-understood, but the NE/SW direction is approximately perpendicular to the compressional axis in many of the fault-plane mechanisms of the earthquakes. These earthquakes are usually at depths between 5 and 12 km, although there are some deeper events nearby.
Parallel shear-wave polarizations, such as those observed, are expected to indicate the strike of nearly vertical parallel microcracks, which would be aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Thus the shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicate that the directions of principal stress are reversed in the rock above the earthquake foci where thrust faulting is taking place.  相似文献   

10.
Summary. The polarizations of shear waves recorded by networks of digital three-component seismometers immediately above small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey display shear-wave splitting on almost all shear-wave seismograms recorded within the shear-wave window. This splitting is incompatible with source radiation-patterns propagating through simple isotropic structures but is compatible with effective anisotropy of the internal structure of the rock along the ray paths. This paper interprets the phenomena in terms of widespread crack-induced anisotropy. Distributions of stress-induced cracks model many features of the observations, and synthetic polarization diagrams calculated for propagation through simulated cracked rock are similar to the observed patterns. This evidence for widespread crack-induced anisotropy lends strong support to the hypothesis of extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) suggested by laboratory experiments in subcritical crack-growth. The crucial evidence confirming some form of EDA would be observations of temporal changes in shear-wave splitting as the stress field alters the crack density and crack geometry. There is some weak evidence for such temporal changes at one site, but further analysis of suitable digital three-component seismometer networks in seismic areas is required to confirm EDA.  相似文献   

11.
Crustal structure and local seismicity in western Anatolia   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Western Anatolia is one of the most seismically active continental regions in the world and much of it has been undergoing NS-directed extensional deformation since Early Miocene time. In a cooperative study, seismologists from Saint Louis University, USA and Dokuz Eylül University, Turkey, deployed five broad-band and 45 short-period seismic stations in western Anatolia between 2002 November and 2003 October. The present paper uses data collected by this network and the data from five permanent stations operated by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute to map the hypocentral distribution of local earthquakes and to determine crustal structure of western Anatolia. We obtained a 1-D P -wave crustal velocity model using a generalized scheme for simultaneously obtaining earthquake locations and a crustal velocity model. Our velocity model is characterized by crustal velocities that are significantly lower than average continental values. The low velocities may be associated with high crustal temperatures, a high degree of fracture, or the presence of fluids at high pore pressure in the crust. We located 725 local earthquakes and classified them in three categories. We found that the level of seismic activity in western Anatolia is higher than previously reported. Station delays resulting from the inversion process correlate with near-surface geology and the thickness of sediments throughout the region. The hypocentral distribution of the events indicates that peak seismicity for the region occurs at depths of about 10 km.  相似文献   

12.
We systematically analysed shear wave splitting (SWS) for seismic data observed at a temporary array and two permanent networks around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) Observatory at Depth. The purpose was to investigate the spatial distribution of crustal shear wave anisotropy around the SAF in this segment and its temporal behaviour in relation to the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield M 6.0 earthquake. The dense coverage of the networks, the accurate locations of earthquakes and the high-resolution velocity model provide a unique opportunity to investigate anisotropy in detail around the SAF zone. The results show that the primary fast polarization directions (PDs) in the region including the SAF zone and the northeast side of the fault are NW–SE, nearly parallel or subparallel to the SAF strike. Some measurements on the southwest side of the fault are oriented to the NNE–SSW direction, approximately parallel to the direction of local maximum horizontal compressive stress. There are also a few areas in which the observed fast PDs do not fit into this general pattern. The strong spatial variations in both the measured fast PDs and time delays reveal the extreme complexity of shear wave anisotropy in the area. The top 2–3 km of the crust appears to contribute the most to the observed time delays; however substantial anisotropy could extend to as deep as 7–8 km in the region. The average time delay in the region is about 0.06 s. We also analysed temporal patterns of SWS parameters in a nearly 4-yr period around the 2004 Parkfield main shock based on similar events. The results show that there are no appreciable precursory, coseismic, or post-seismic temporal changes of SWS in a region near the rupture of an M 6.0 earthquake, about 15 km away from its epicentre.  相似文献   

13.
i
The intervals between the arrivals of the same body wave phases from distant earthquakes at a close network of stations are compared with those expected from the known surface speeds of the phases. The arrival at the station on the island of Barbados is shown to be
2.94 = 0.34 s
later than expected relative to the other stations.
This is believed to be due to differences in crustal structure associated with the belt of negative gravity anomalies east of the West Indian arc.
A crustal section consistent with the seismic delays, gravity anomalies and seismic refraction profiles is presented.  相似文献   

14.
The earthquake swarm that struck Shadwan Island at the entrance of the Gulf of Suez in 2001 August included 408 events. Almost all of these events (94 per cent) were microearthquakes and only 6 per cent had small measurable magnitudes  (5.0 > M L≥ 3.0)  . Most of the earthquakes were weak and followed each other so closely in time that they could not be identified at more distant stations. The fault plane solutions of the strongest events of the swarm show almost identical focal mechanisms, predominately normal faulting with a significant sinistral strike-slip component for nodal planes trending NW–SE. A comparison with the mechanisms of the 1969 and 1972 events which took place 20 km north of the swarm epicentral region shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes. The azimuths of T -axes determined from focal mechanisms in this study are oriented in the NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field derived from borehole breakouts in the southern Gulf of Suez and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS results.
The source parameters of the largest  ( M L≥ 3.0)  events of the 2001 August Shadwan swarm have been estimated from the P -wave spectra of the Egyptian National Seismograph Network (ENSN). Averaging of the values obtained at different stations shows relatively similar source parameters, including a fault length of  0.65 ≤ L ≤ 2 km  , a seismic moment of  7.1 × 1012≤ Mo ≤ 3.0 × 1014 N m  and a stress drop of  0.4 ≤Δσ≤ 10  bar.  相似文献   

15.
The NW Scotland earthquake swarm of 1974   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Summary. A swarm of earthquakes occurred in the Kintail area of NW Scotland in 1974 August with magnitudes up to ML = 4.6 and reported intensities up to VI MM. One earthquake of the series was recorded by about 60 temporary stations of the LISPB refraction experiment in addition to the permanent LOWNET network. This allowed the determination of an accurate epicentre for that event which was then used as a control event to locate other earthquakes of the Kintail series. The events of that swarm had a strikeslip focal mechanism and seemed to be associated with the Strathconon Fault.  相似文献   

16.
A successfully stress-forecast earthquake   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  
A M = 5 earthquake in Iceland has been successfully 'stress forecast' by using variations in time delays of seismic shear wave splitting to assess the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. Local investigations suggested the approximate location of the forecast earthquake. We report the criteria on which this stress forecast was based.  相似文献   

17.
Earthquake prediction: a new physical basis   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  
Summary. Subcritical crack growth in the laboratory occurs slowly but progressively in solids subjected to low stresses at low strain rates. The cracks tend to grow parallel to the maximum compressive stress so that, when this stress is aligned over a large enough region, the cracks will also be aligned and possess effective seismic anisotropy. It is suggested that such subcritical crack growth produces extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) throughout earth-quake preparation zones. This process is a possible driving mechanism for earthquake precursors observed at substantial distances from impending focal zones, and provides, in the shear-wave splitting which has been observed in several seismic regions, a possible technique for monitoring the build-up of stress before earthquakes.  相似文献   

18.
We study the crustal structure of eastern Marmara region by applying the receiver function method to the data obtained from the 11 broad-band stations that have been in operation since the 1999 İzmit earthquake. The stacked single-event receiver functions were modelled by an inversion algorithm based on a five-layered crustal velocity model to reveal the first-order shear-velocity discontinuities with a minimum degree of trade-off. We observe crustal thickening from west (29–32 km) to east (34–35 km) along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), but we observe no obvious crustal thickness variation from north to south while crossing the NAFZ. The crust is thinnest beneath station TER (29 km), located near the Black Sea coast in the west and thickest beneath station TAR (35 km), located inland in the southeast. The average crustal thickness and S -wave velocity for the whole regions are  31 ± 2  km and  3.64 ± 0.15 km s−1  , respectively. The eastern Marmara region with its average crustal thickness, high heat flow value (101 ± 11 mW m−2) and with its remarkable extensional features seems to have a Basin and Range type characteristics, but the higher average shear velocities (∼3.64 km s−1) and crustal thickening from 29 to 35 km towards the easternmost stations indicate that the crustal structure shows a transitional tectonic regime. Therefore, we conclude that the eastern Marmara region seems to be a transition zone between the Marmara Sea extensional domain and the continental Anatolian inland region.  相似文献   

19.
Effects of the free surface on shear wavetrains   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Summary. The behaviour of shear-waves is of great importance in identifying and investigating seismic anisotropy in the Earth. However, shear wavetrains recorded at the Earth's surface do not always reflect the motion at depth, introducing practical problems of interpretation. Shear wavetrains incident on the surface of an isotropic half-space at angles less than critical (about 35°) are broadly preserved, but at greater angles substantial distortions can occur. For stations situated close to the source, as in local earthquake studies, the local SP phase, a radially polarized precursor to S , may occur. The behaviour at the surface of an anisotropic half-space is further complicated by the divergence of phase and energy propagation vectors. All of these complications suggest that detailed seismogram modelling is essential to any study of shear wave propagation in the Earth, and in particular to investigations of anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting.  相似文献   

20.
ScS wave splitting of deep earthquakes around Japan   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
ScS wave splitting of five deep earthquakes in subduction zones near Japan is investigated using horizontal seismograms recorded al JMA stations. For each earthquake, we clearly observe uniform ScS wave splitting in all stations over Japan, especially for the events located south of Honshu in 1982, 1984 and 1993. However, the directions of fast-polarized waves of these events differed by a maximum of about 50° from one another. The orientation of fast-polarized waves in the 1982 event was NNW-SSE; those in the two later events WNW-ESE. We also recognize this discrepancy in the results of the analysis of the 1971 Sea of Okhotsk event reported by Fukao (1984). The Sakhalin Islands event in 1990 reveals a linear particle motion without such a change in direction of the second arrivals, implying no anisotropy. These observations are interpreted as indicating an anisotropic region within the slab near the earthquake sources but not beneath the receivers, since the orientations of fast-polarized waves recorded at each station are not common to all the earthquakes. Furthermore, we consider that anisotropy exists non-uniformly within the slab. The event in 1982, which occurred in almost the same area as those in 1984 and 1993, showed a fast direction different from the events in 1984 and 1993. The 1982 event was 179 km deep, but the two later events were at 398 km and 360 km, respectively. The fast direction observed from the 1982 event is parallel to the fossil plate motion, whereas those from the events in 1984 and 1993 are parallel to the compression axis within the subducting slab. The depth of 400 km is a phase boundary, where olivine changes to β spinel. We consider that the most likely cause of the change in anisotropy direction is the re-orientation of crystals associated with the phase change of olivine to β spinel due to subduction of the slab.  相似文献   

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