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1.
Retrospective modeling of the sequences of shallow-focus weak earthquakes (M ~ 2.0–3.0) in Southern Sakhalin for the period of 2003–2014 is conducted using the method of self-developing process and the catalogue data of the local network. Mathematical models of the nonlinear increase of the cumulative shocks before strong (M = 4.6–6.2) events are constructed. Short-term forecasts of the parameter T 0 (origin time of strong aftershocks) are obtained with a high degree of accuracy. The stability of the solutions obtained by varying the duration of the observation interval of catalogue data is shown. A gradual decrease in the error in the prediction of the T 0 parameter is achieved as we approach the end of the processing interval to the time of the main shock. Although the errors in prediction in the retrospective version are no more than one day, the real evaluation of the accuracy can only be obtained in the practice of real predictions. Meanwhile, we have demonstrated the possibility in principle of the short-term prediction of strong shallow-focus earthquakes in Southern Sakhalin. 相似文献
2.
V. I. Isaev R. Yu. Gulenok O. S. Isaeva G. A. Lobova 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2008,2(3):191-204
The zones of deconsolidation and consolidation in the lower parts of the sedimentary cover and in the basement are considered as an important exploration indicator of oil-gas accumulation zones. The described zones are mapped using geodensity modeling (in a gravity field) in the MZ-PZ basement and Cretaceous deposits of South Sakhalin, as well as in the pre-Jurassic basement and plate complex of the central part of West Siberia. It was found that the most promising zones are confined to the Central Sakhalin Fault and Krasnoleninsk arch in Sakhalin and to the Visim megaswell in the West Siberian plate. Recent prospecting drilling revealed that deconsolidation zones are correlated with hydrocarbon reservoirs. The presented technique of geodensity modeling can be applied for petroleum-geological explorations of structures formed in different geological and tectonic settings. 相似文献
3.
The stress state of the sedimentary rocks in the oil-and-gas fields of Sakhalin is estimated and analyzed; data from exploratory boreholes in the eastern Pacific (San-Andreas fault zone) are considered. The vertical and limiting horizontal stresses are calculated for different depths. The maximum sublateral compression can exceed the vertical stress by a factor of 1.2–4 on average in northern and southern Sakhalin. It is shown that the limiting horizontal stress and the maximum shear stress grow as the depth increases. 相似文献
4.
地震中长期预测研究的进展和方向 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
综述了地震中长期预测的研究历史和发展现状、存在问题及发展方向。地震中长期预测研究大体可以发为确定性预测研究和概率性预测研究两个主要发展阶段。已有的预测模型和方法在地昨发模式、不确定性分析、断裂之间的相互作用、单一学科面临的资料缺乏等方面存在许多问题。今后一个时期内,地震中长期预测研究的主要发展方向粉：建立地震复发模式、建立大陆板内地震复发间隔的通用概率分布模型、活动断裂定量研究资料的应用,不确定性 相似文献
5.
L. N. Poplavskaya T. V. Nagornykh O. A. Mel’nikov D. A. Safonov Kim Chun Un 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2012,6(2):164-172
The results of the instrumental and macroseismic studies are reported for the tangible earthquake with intensity of up to
5–6 and amplitude of MLH = 4.8 that occurred near the western coast of Sakhalin Island. The main parameters of the Kostromskoe
earthquake have been estimated in two versions: (1) based on the data from the local network of digital stations located in
southern Sakhalin, and (2) from the complex of local, regional, and global observations. It has been noted that the development
of the local network in southern Sakhalin allowed the seismic regime in the earthquake area to be investigated in more detail
and the mechanisms of both the individual weak and group events to be derived. The acquired data on the dislocation style
of the main shock and aftershocks in the days following the event were used for the geological-tectonic interpretation of
the Kostromskoe earthquake. 相似文献
6.
2013年4月20日MS 7.0级芦山地震是2008年汶川地震以后龙门山断裂带的又一个灾难性的地质事件。文中回顾了对芦山地震的成功中期预测并给出了预测的依据。2012年11月25日上午,中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会讨论中国西南地区中期地震预测问题。专业委员会主任耿庆国回顾了2012年4月作出的中期预测,认为2012年5月至2013年5月期间,在我国西南地区可能存在MS 7~8级地震。参加会议的委员们同意这一时间预测和震级预测,但是在震中位置预测方面存在不同意见。文章第一作者在会上作了一个报告,并展示了确切的震中预测位置图,即位于四川省雅安与康定连线的中间位置。这一预测的依据主要有两个方面：一方面,雅安西侧与汶川两地,具有两个特征相同的独立的卫星重力局部高异常;二是汶川(5·12)大震只是释放了龙门山断裂带北东段的能量和应力,这导致能量和应力在龙门山断裂带南西段,特别是南西端与重力异常突变叠加区(即中上地壳密度突变区)的加速积累和集中。芦山地震震中位于雅安芦山,与预测震中位置仅相差80 km,发震时间在2013年5月前。芦山地震中期预测的成功给予我们很多启示。作为一种地质过程,地震应该有其自身的规律可循;成功的地震预测需要多方面观测信息的综合分析,正是基于此,目前迫切需要国家的或者国际的具有综合分析经验的专家组和有效的前兆信息平台;卫星重力异常数据的处理和更新将有助于缩小强震预测的包围圈。 相似文献
7.
This work briefly discusses the main features of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Special attention is paid to the identification and quantification of uncertainties related to seismic source characteristics and seismic engineering models for prediction of strong ground motions. The principal seismic models and the results of PSHA application for detailed seismic zoning of urban territories in Sakhalin Island are presented. 相似文献
8.
This paper discusses the results of long-term monitoring observations on the chemical and isotopic composition of free gases
in gryphons of the South Sakhalin mud volcano on Sakhalin Island. It was shown that during seismic activation in the region,
the chemical composition of free gases changes, whereas the isotopic composition of carbon in methane and carbon dioxide remains
constant. A possible interpretation of the obtained data was suggested. The depth of the gas reservoir that supplies the South
Sakhalin mud volcano was estimated as well. 相似文献
9.
S. M. Saprygin 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2008,2(2):158-164
Detailed seismic zoning of Sakhalin based on seismological, tectonic, geomorphological, hydrogeological, and other data is discussed. It is shown that strong crustal earthquakes occurred at the boundary between the Eurasian and Okhotsk plates and their recurrence in Central Sakhalin is equal to the duration of the tectonic cycle (75 years). This boundary in North Sakhalin is marked by the Upper-Piltun fault, which was the epicenter of the 1995 Neftegorsk earthquake with an intensity of 9. The analysis of paleosoils in the fault zone showed that such events repeat with an interval of 400 years. The development of large oil and gas reservoirs on the Sakhalin shelf will be accompanied by intensification of the seismicity, which can reach a magnitude of M = 6.0–6.5 in the Lunskoye field. 相似文献
10.
Doklady Earth Sciences - A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is applied, for the first time in the case of Sakhalin Island, using a regional ground motion prediction equation in terms of the... 相似文献
11.
We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.
相似文献12.
Yaeko Igarashi 《Quaternary Science Reviews》1996,15(10):989-995
At present, Larix gmelini is a main component of taiga developed in north Sakhalin, northeast China and east Siberia. During the interval from ∼11.8 to 12.4 ka BP, pollen assemblages from north Hokkaido, Japan, are dominated by Larix. Pollen assemblages of this Lateglacial climatic reversal, known as the “Kenbuchi Stadial”, are similar to pollen assemblages from the Last Glacial Maximum in north Hokkaido. Vegetation of Hokkaido inferred from these pollen assemblages — open taiga composed of Larix gmelini, Pinus pumila and Picea jezoensis and/or Picea glehnii — may have been like that of north Sakhalin today. Comparison of these fossil pollen assemblages from Hokkaido with pollen assemblages from modern surface samples in Sakhalin suggests that ∼ 11.8 to 12.4 ka BP, temperatures relative to today were at least 9°C lower in January and 7°C lower in August, and that annual precipitation was at least 735 mm lower than present. 相似文献
13.
We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost. 相似文献
14.
Sakhalin Island is the only region in the Russian Far East where mud volcanism is manifested on land. The South Sakhalin mud volcano is located in the south of the island in the zone of the Central Sakhalin Fault (upthrow-thrust). The horizontal and vertical displacements of the earth’s surface after this mud volcano erupted in 2011 are revealed for the first time based on the GPS observation data. On the basis of the inversion of the measured displacements for the homogeneous elastic half-space, a model of the finite spherical eruption source is constructed. The coordinates, depth, and possible size of the source are defined and the volumes of the erupted clay rock, water, and gas are estimated. 相似文献
15.
地震学中非线性预测方法的初步研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
介绍了近年来地震预测学中非线性理论和非线性方法的研究趋势和最新研究进展。在非线性数学模型的研究中，较为成功地将非线性门限模型，指数模型、具有长程关联自回归模型等应用于地震的中期预测上，在分形研究上，明确地取代了以往的一些经验结果，使对地震的活动的经验统计关系上升到分形的理论，在研究地震的动力学机制中，以多滑块－弹簧模型为代表，模拟地壳上地震断层运动机制和事实，建立了粘滑摩擦情况下的参数动力学方程。 相似文献
16.
传统机器学习算法已广泛应用于矿产预测,但面对地质大数据的高维稀疏、不平衡小样本等特性仍缺乏有效处理和分析的方法,设计适合地质大数据特点的机器学习算法是智能矿产预测亟需解决的新问题。本文以内蒙古浩布高地区的铅锌多金属矿产预测为例,提出了一种面向地质大数据的半监督协同训练矿产预测模型。首先对研究区地质找矿信息和地球化学异常信息进行定量分析,提取断裂构造、二叠系地层、燕山期侵入岩、地层与岩体接触带、围岩蚀变及Pb、Zn、Sn、Cu地球化学异常共9种找矿因子。然后利用递归特征消除法优选找矿因子组合,不包括Sn异常在内的8个找矿因子组合被选为最优组合。最后,利用支持向量机和随机森林算法作为基分类器进行半监督协同训练矿产预测,绘制成矿概率分布图。ROC曲线和预测度曲线分析结果表明,半监督协同训练模型的AUC值和预测效率都高于随机森林和支持向量机模型。研究结果也为大数据环境下的智能矿产预测提供了一种新的思路。 相似文献
17.
The first tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone represents a separate complex region of the lithosphere. It has a pinnate structure with a backbone belt of current deformation, which is a concentrator of largest earthquakes, and branching, repeatedly reactivated large and small faults. In its vertical section, the seismic zone is tree-like, the stem and the branches being faults of different size ranks which can generate earthquakes when reactivated. The real-time short-period fault motions and the respective seismicity occurring at a certain time and in certain places are triggered by strain waves, which disturb the metastable state of the faulted lithosphere subject to regional stress. The modeling work includes developing general requirements for tectonophysical models of continental rifts and special methods for identifying the faults that become active within short historic time spans, as well as techniques for locating potential events in space and time in specific active faults. The methods and model testing for medium-term earthquake prediction are described by the example of the well-documented Baikal seismic zone, which is the most active part of the Baikal rift system. The tectonophysical model for the Baikal zone is statistically supported by field data, and this allows estimating the velocities and periods of strain waves for different zone segments and faults, with implications for nearest-future earthquake prediction. 相似文献
18.
V. M. Grannik 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2016,470(2):1019-1022
It has been determined that the Rozhdestvenka Formation of the West Sakhalin Terrane composed of Late Mesozoic igneous rocks is a fragment of the accretionary prism of the Rebun–Kabato–Moneron–Samarga island-arc system. Volcanic eruptions, as well as destruction of the Rebun–Kabato–Moneron–Samarga island-arc and the East Sikhote-Alin volcano plutonic marginal continental belt, were the sources of pyroclastic and clastic material entering the sedimentary basin, where the Pobedinsk and Krasnoyarka suites of the West Sakhalin Terrane were formed. 相似文献
19.
E. P. Terekhov A. V. Mozherovsky M. T. Gorovaya I. B. Tsoy N. G. Vashchenkova 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2010,4(3):260-273
This paper reports and discusses the composition of the rocks of the Kotikovo Group (the Uchir, Zaslonovskaya, Turovskay,
and Ol’don formations) of the Terpeniya Peninsula (East Sakhalin). It is suggested that the Cenozoic deposits unconformably
overlay the Maastrichtian-Danian rocks with basal conglomerates at the base. Two main stages were distinguished in the Late
Cretaceous-Paleogene evolution of this area on the basis of our study. The first stage was responsible for the formation of
the Maastrichtian-Danian volcaniclastic and volcanogenic-sedimentary rocks of the Uchir Group, while the second stage produced
the Paleocene-Eocene sedimentary rocks of the Zaslonovskaya, Turovskaya, and Ol’don formations. The end of the first stage
(at the boundary of the Uchir and Zaslonovskaya formations) was marked by a change in the tectonic regime. This was expressed
in the weakening of the volcanic activity, the uplift of the territory, and the exposure of new provenances to erosion. During
the second, Early Paleogene stage, the area of the East Sakhalin Mountains, the Terpeniya Peninsula, and the submarine Terpeniya
Ridge represented a shallow-water marine sedimentary basin representing the western flank of the Cenozoic Pogranichnyi Basin.
The formation of the anticlinal East Sakhalin Mountains-Terpeniya Peninsula-submarine Terpeniya Ridge structure occurred during
the Late Cenozoic period of the East Sakhalin evolution. 相似文献
20.
L. G. Bragina 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2009,17(4):430-442
The work is aimed at summarizing data on Late Cretaceous radiolarians from the Crimean and West Sakhalin mountains. The Cenomanian-lower Coniacian stratigraphic interval of the Crimean Mountains yields 215 radiolarian species, and 80 concurrent species are known from the West Sakhalin Maintains. According to results of comparative analysis, there are 62 species in common from two regions, i.e., most of the species occurring in the West Sakhalin Mountains are also known from southerly regions, which is a good premise for correlation. 相似文献