共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in the conterminous United States for the period 1994–2007. Results
include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their unique spatial distributions. An analysis of
historical hazard event data illustrate that, on average, 35 people reportedly die from rip currents each year in the United
States. Also, similar to other hazard events where unique differences in gender vulnerability have been found, men are over
six times more likely to fall victim to a deadly rip current than females. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern
United States, with a nonuniform spatial distribution along other Atlantic, Pacific, and Great Lakes coastlines. Physical
vulnerabilities are suggested as the primary cause for the unique fatality distribution found. Temporally, summer season weekends
are shown to have the more fatalities than any other time of the year. A classification scheme was developed to categorize
synoptic-scale weather conditions present during deadly rip current events. More than 70% of all rip current fatalities are
associated with onshore winds. Specifically, a rip current fatality is most likely when a surface high pressure system creates
these onshore winds. The quality of the fatality reporting database available for researchers is also assessed. 相似文献
2.
Most U.S. metropolitan regions have experienced urban “sprawl,” or the outward spreading of urban development from city centers.
For cities lying in areas prone to severe weather, the sprawl phenomenon exposes greater numbers of developed areas and inhabitants
to a variety of thunderstorm hazards. This study’s principal goal is to determine how urbanization growth patterns affect
a region’s vulnerability to severe weather events. To assess how sprawl may impact vulnerability to tornadoes, hail, and convective
wind events, an analysis examining potential loss may be utilized. This study employs two distinct approaches to examine how
the Atlanta area’s rapid and extensive development during the latter half of the twentieth Century has affected its overall
potential exposure to thunderstorm hazards. First, archived census data are used to estimate overall impacts from hypothetical
significant tornado, nontornadic convective wind, and hail events occurring at different time periods throughout several locations
in the Atlanta metropolitan region. Second, economic factors are integrated into the analysis, which assists in determining
how these hypothetical severe event scenarios may have changed from a cost standpoint if they were to occur in 2006 as opposed
to 1960. 相似文献
3.
The unique characteristics of Small Island Developing States and structural vulnerabilities they face in terms of development
have earned them particular consideration in the development agenda. This article sheds light on some of the vulnerabilities
that these countries face, making particular reference to their environmental and economic vulnerabilities. It then highlights
the ambiguous role that international migration plays in the recreation of those vulnerabilities. 相似文献
4.
Reported avalanche fatalities in the United States increased markedly through the latter half of the twentieth century, a
result of the increasing popularity of winter sports. Despite this increase, the literature concerning US avalanche fatalities
is sparse. This paper presents a comparison of three US databases containing avalanche fatality information: Storm Data, the West Wide Avalanche Network (WWAN) dataset, and the National Avalanche Database (NAD). The frequency of avalanche fatalities,
their temporal trends, spatial distributions, and the demographic characteristics of the victims were analyzed in each database
for the years 1998–2009 for the US mountainous west. The data were then pooled to arrive at an estimate of avalanche fatality
frequency in the United States for the study period. While the results indicate a considerable amount of overlap between the
datasets, Storm Data reports fewer avalanche fatalities than both the WWAN and NAD datasets. All three datasets report a maximum of fatalities
in January and display three spatial maxima: the Rocky Mountains of west-central Colorado, the intermountain region from central
Utah through Idaho to west-central Montana, and the northern Cascade Ranges of Washington; however, a large void appears in
the Storm Data records in the vicinity of the Montana maximum. These maxima result from a juxtaposition of avalanche hazard in these mountainous
environments with a high concentration of winter sports activities. 相似文献
5.
Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing
lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About
80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused
by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities,
estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and
2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland
fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions
significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and
4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation
holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland
counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along
the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them. 相似文献
6.
The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and increase in near-surface air temperatures may have an impact on severe weather events in the United States. Output from some numerical modeling simulations suggests that the atmosphere over mid-latitude land areas could become more unstable in the future thereby supporting an increase in convective activity. However, despite the numerical simulation results, empiricists have been unable generally to identify significant increases in overall severe storm activity as measured in the magnitude and/or frequency of thunderstorms, hail events, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter storm activity across the United States. There is evidence that heavy precipitation events have increased during the period of historical records, but for many other severe weather categories, the trends have been downward over the past half century. Damage from severe weather has increased over this period, but this upward trend disappears when inflation, population growth, population redistribution, and wealth are taken into account. 相似文献
7.
Landfalling tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes. This study investigates how hazardous these tornadoes are to human
life by analyzing the resultant casualties, which includes fatalities and injuries. From 1995 to 2009, 63 tropical cyclones
made landfall in the United States producing a reported 1,139 tornadoes. Most tornadoes resulted in no casualties but a few
extreme cases indicate that the potential exists for a substantial number of casualties. Temporal and spatial analyses indicate
that most casualties occur when and where the physical risk of tornadoes is elevated. 相似文献
8.
Fatalities from tornadoes have declined dramatically over the last century in the United States. Despite the overall reduction
in tornado lethality, fatalities from mobile homes remain high. In fact, research suggests that the likelihood of a fatality
in a mobile home is ten times or more than that in a permanent home. This study examines possible explanations of the mobile
home tornado problem, including the potential for concentration of these homes in tornado prone states, the relation to Fujita
Scale rating, and incidence during the day. We find that mobile home fatalities are concentrated in the Southeastern US, significantly
more likely in weaker tornadoes, and occur disproportionately at night. 相似文献
9.
There is a general consensus that Small Island Developing States are among the most vulnerable to experience climate injustices. Vulnerability studies of climate change effects on communities have often focused on differences between communities given these climate injustices. However, there is a need to also focus on vulnerability within communities, referred to here as comparative vulnerabilities. Climate justice therefore becomes even more important with more focused attention given to the nuances within groups that fall within the vulnerable category. This article examines comparative vulnerabilities for the fishing community in Jamaica. A survey of 241 fishers from Old Harbour Bay, the largest fishing village in Jamaica, was conducted to examine the level of vulnerability of different fishers to climate change. A vulnerability index was constructed for the community and then comparative vulnerabilities were determined based on socio-demographic characteristics. Overall for the sample 46.9% of respondents would be considered as experiencing a comparatively high level of vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability was influenced by a number of socio-demographic variables with unique profiles emerging for groups that can be ranked as low, moderate, and high vulnerability. The paper therefore argues that within vulnerable populations there are comparative vulnerabilities based on economic factors and social capital, which must be taken into consideration for adaptation strategies to be implemented. Given these comparative vulnerabilities a more targeted approach to coping and adaptation strategies can then be taken. This will assist in building resilience of these communities that must now adjust to a new normal with climate change effects currently occurring. 相似文献
10.
On the evening of 22 May 2011, an EF-5 tornado tore a path six miles long across Joplin, Missouri, USA, killing 162 people as it passed through the heart of the city. This tornado stands as the deadliest single tornado to hit the United States since modern recordkeeping began in 1950, surpassing the tornado of 8 June 1953 that claimed 116 lives in Flint, Michigan. The record number of deaths caused by the single tornado in Joplin was far higher than the average annual number of US tornado deaths over the last three decades. This study explores the reasons for the high number of fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado. Questionnaire surveys administered among tornado survivors and informal discussions with emergency management personnel and others suggest that five reasons are associated with the high number of tornado fatalities experienced in Joplin: (1) the sheer magnitude of this event; (2) its path through commercial and densely populated residential areas; (3) the relatively large size of damage area; (4) the physical characteristics of affected homes in Joplin; and (5) the fact that some residents ignored tornado warnings. Several recommendations are offered, the implementation of which should reduce future tornado fatalities not only in Joplin, but elsewhere in the United States. 相似文献
11.
Motor vehicles historically have been dangerous locations to shelter in during tornado events. Throughout the twentieth century, motor vehicle design has become safer while tornado forecasting has become better understood. Despite such advances, tornado fatalities in motor vehicles still occur today, and some events periodically result in high numbers of deaths (e.g., ten motor vehicle occupants were killed by a single tornado in Garland, Texas, in 2015). We seek to examine all US tornado-induced motor vehicle fatalities documented between 1991 and 2015. Our findings indicate that motor vehicle fatalities have not significantly changed during this study period. We attribute annual fatality totals to persons lacking awareness of impending dangers coupled with numbers of significant tornado events for a given year. We find most fatalities result when vehicles are lofted or passengers are ejected, and this most typically occurs at the EF3–EF5 intensity thresholds. Fatalities that occur at weaker tornado winds (EF0–EF2) are most often attributed to collapsing debris (mostly trees) on vehicles. Spatially, motor vehicle fatalities are greatest in the Deep South and southern Great Plains regions where overall tornado and nighttime tornado frequencies are greatest. Some of the largest motor vehicle fatality events have resulted from tornadoes not being distinctly visible to motorists; such events have been characterized by tornadoes occurring at night or by tornadoes not appearing as “classic funnels.” 相似文献
12.
High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 %) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 % in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 %). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (13 %), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 % each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 %) followed by July (29 %) and September (20 %). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US$ between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US$ in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time. 相似文献
13.
Debris flows cause significant damage and fatalities throughout the world. This study addresses the overall impacts of debris flows on a global scale from 1950 to 2011. Two hundred and thirteen events with 77,779 fatalities have been recorded from academic publications, newspapers, and personal correspondence. Spatial, temporal, and physical characteristics have been documented and evaluated. In addition, multiple socioeconomic indicators have been reviewed and statistically analyzed to evaluate whether vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by debris flows. This research provides evidence that higher levels of fatalities tend to occur in developing countries, characterized by significant poverty, more corrupt governments, and weaker healthcare systems. The median number of fatalities per recorded deadly debris flow in developing countries is 23, while in advanced countries, this value is only 6 fatalities per flow. The analysis also indicates that the most common trigger for fatal events is extreme precipitation, particularly in the form of large seasonal storms such as cyclones and monsoon storms. Rainfall caused or triggered 143 of the 213 fatal debris flows within the database. However, it is the more uncommon and catastrophic triggers, such as earthquakes and landslide dam bursts, that tend to create debris flows with the highest number of fatalities. These events have a median fatality count >500, while rainfall-induced debris flows have a median fatality rate of only 9 per event. 相似文献
14.
The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet
impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact
on the Earth’s surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed
studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similar-sized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward
probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine
the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of ~USD 200,000/year, a rate
of ~0.3 fatalities/year and ~1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values
when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme
event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this “nightmare” scenario would lead to ~USD 1.5 trillion
of property loss, ~3.9 millions of fatalities and ~4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once
every ~30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example. 相似文献
15.
High winds are one of the nation’s leading damage-producing storm conditions. They do not include winds from tornadoes, winter
storms, nor hurricanes, but are strong winds generated by deep low pressure centers, by thunderstorms, or by air flow over
mountain ranges. The annual average property and crop losses in the United States from windstorms are $379 million and windstorms
during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km 2. In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western
US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between
10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses >$379 million and windstorms
during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km 2. In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western
US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between
10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses >1
million, labeled catastrophes, during 1952–2006 totaled 176, an annual average of 3.2. Catastrophic windstorm losses were
highest in the West and Northwest climate regions, the only form of severe weather in the United States with maximum losses
on the West Coast. Most western storms occurred in the winter, a result of Pacific lows, and California has had 31 windstorm
catastrophes, more than any other state. The national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952–2006 has
a flat trend, but their losses display a distinct upward trend with time, peaking during 1996–2006. 相似文献
16.
Tropical cyclone (TC) disasters have frequently caused casualties in the coastal areas of China. According to the statistics of dead and missing people due to TCs from 1951 to 2014, the number of fatalities has been significantly decreasing over time. However, deadly TC events have still caused great losses of life in recent years, which are characterized as significant abrupt fluctuations superimposed along the downward trend of the long-term fatality time series. The numbers of fatalities caused by TC disasters are influenced by variables such as the intensity of TC hazards, the population exposed to TCs and the vulnerability of people to TC hazards. It is thus of great significance to analyze their temporal characteristics and understand the forces driving these changes. First, the time series of the TC wind, precipitation, spatial distribution of population, fatality and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures of China from 1951 to 2014 are reconstructed. Second, the improved power dissipation index, total precipitation, integrated intensity and index of exposed population are calculated, and the population vulnerability indices, including mean and relative fatality rates, are derived. Third, the change trend of each index is detected using the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the main driving factors of the long-term change trend and fluctuations of the TC fatalities are analyzed by a negative binomial regression model and standard deviation statistics. It is found that the decrease in vulnerability based on the improvement in structural and non-structural measures is the main driving force of the decreases in fatalities over the past six decades. Although the total population and exposure have increased dramatically in the coastal areas of China, their contributions to the increase in the fatality risk were counteracted by the decrease in vulnerability. Abrupt and catastrophic disasters were mostly caused by TCs with hazards of high intensity that surpassed the capacity of structural measures; the lack of forecasting or early warning, as well as improper emergency response actions, may also have triggered the great loss of lives. To reduce the fatalities of future TCs, especially those that may exceed the capacity of structural measures, the enhancement of non-structural measures and the adaptation of resilience strategies should be priorities for future people-centered disaster management. 相似文献
17.
This study aimed to reveal the temporal statistics, formation mechanisms, suitable land/sea surface (LS/SS) and upper-level atmospheric conditions, and predictability of thundersnow (TSSN) events that occurred between 2000 and 2021 in the Marmara Region with atmospheric stability indexes. Aviation reports from 11 airports were analyzed throughout the period, and no TSSN events were found at four airports. A total of 19 TSSN events were identified, and six events were found in 2015, when the sea-effect snow (SES) mechanisms were observed four times. The majority of TSSN events were of very short duration (0–1 h), and no significant trend was observed in terms of intraday distribution. SES mechanism was observed in 17 of the 19 TSSN events, and the dominance of northern flows was detected at all airports and at the sub-inversion upstream levels. In terms of air-sea interaction, suitable temperature differences between the SS and 850/700 hPa (17 °C and 27 °C on average), and the transfer of heat-moisture fluxes from the SS to the upper-atmosphere were possible in almost all TSSN events. In this way, meteorological parameters were sufficient for the formation and strengthening of the convective layer. In addition, the presence of directional wind shear and the observation of inversion layers restricting convective movements at higher levels instead of near the surface ensured that the moisture requirement, lifting mechanism, and unstable atmospheric conditions required for the formation of TS were provided. The CAPE values were very low for winter TSs. Total Total Index and TQ Index produced the most appropriate results for TSSN prediction. 相似文献
18.
Obtaining an accurate initial state is recognized as one of the biggest challenges in accurate model prediction of convective
events. This work is the first attempt in utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Doppler radar data in a numerical
model for the prediction of mesoscale convective complexes around Chennai and Kolkata. Three strong convective events both
over Chennai and Kolkata have been considered for the present study. The simulation experiments have been carried out using
fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5) version
3.5.6. The variational data assimilation approach is one of the most promising tools available for directly assimilating the
mesoscale observations in order to improve the initial state. The horizontal wind derived from the DWR has been used alongwith
other conventional and non-conventional data in the assimilation system. The preliminary results from the three dimensional
variational (3DVAR) experiments are encouraging. The simulated rainfall has also been compared with that derived from the
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The encouraging result from this study can be the basis for further
investigation of the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity data in 3DVAR system. The present study indicates that Doppler
radar data assimilation improves the initial field and enhances the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) skill. 相似文献
19.
Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience. 相似文献
20.
It has been recognized that wildfire, followed by large precipitation events, triggers both flooding and debris flows in mountainous regions. The ability to predict and mitigate these hazards is crucial in protecting public safety and infrastructure. A need for advanced modeling techniques was highlighted by re-evaluating existing prediction models from the literature. Data from 15 individual burn basins in the intermountain western United States, which contained 388 instances and 26 variables, were obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). After randomly selecting a subset of the data to serve as a validation set, advanced predictive modeling techniques, using machine learning, were implemented using the remaining training data. Tenfold cross-validation was applied to the training data to ensure nearly unbiased error estimation and also to avoid model over-fitting. Linear, nonlinear, and rule-based predictive models including naïve Bayes, mixture discriminant analysis, classification trees, and logistic regression models were developed and tested on the validation dataset. Results for the new non-linear approaches were nearly twice as successful as those for the linear models, previously published in debris flow prediction literature. The new prediction models advance the current state-of-the-art of debris flow prediction and improve the ability to accurately predict debris flow events in wildfire-prone intermountain western United States. 相似文献
|
