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1.
E. Papadimitriou V. Karakostas M. Tranos B. Ranguelov D. Gospodinov 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2007,96(5):911-924
Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity
to populated centers. The long recurrence intervals, of the order of several hundred years as suggested by previous investigations,
imply that the twentieth century activation along the southern boundary of the sub-Balkan graben system, is probably associated
with stress transfer among neighbouring faults or fault segments. Fault interaction is investigated through elastic stress
transfer among strong main shocks (M ≥ 6.0), and in three cases their foreshocks, which ruptured distinct or adjacent normal fault segments. We compute stress
perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed
for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in
the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were
calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account
both the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. We
evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modeling
results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbors and reduced the
stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic
hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes. 相似文献
2.
We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk. 相似文献
3.
以山东郯城1668年大地震为例,以前人地表地质调查结果为约束,利用弹性位错理论初步获取了该地震的同震破裂模型;在此基础上,基于粘弹性分层模型分析了该地震的同震和震后形变,同时以主震断层为接收断层计算了库仑应力分布,进一步讨论了地幔不同粘滞性系数对地表形变和库仑应力变化的影响。计算结果显示,该地震是一个右旋走滑为主兼有一定逆冲性质的地震,其同震位移巨大,能量释放较彻底;同震破裂造成震中郯城县西北、东北和南部部分断层库仑应力增加,而震后形变使得这些断层库仑应力进一步增加,在单县、宿迁和日照等地,地震后350 a库仑应力变化量达到+1bar-+1MPa量级;地幔粘滞性系数不同,形变量和库仑应力变化达到稳定的时间不同,但最终趋于稳定的数值基本一致。 相似文献
4.
Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years. 相似文献
5.
The Maule, Chile, (Mw 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the Mw 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), Mw 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), Mw 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior. 相似文献
6.
建筑物的地震安全性是城市规划和建设过程首先要回答的问题。我国城市地震安全性评价的方法理论多针对地上建筑物,而对地下空间的地震安全性研究较为薄弱,严重滞后于城市发展对地下空间的需求。活断层是诱发地震、导致建筑物破坏的的直接因素。考虑到空间关系上,地下空间与断层之间的交互关系为相交或相离。因此,本文将地下空间分为两类:与断层相交的地下空间称为跨断层地下空间,远离断层的地下空间称为远离断层地下空间。本文尝试将断裂带同震地表破裂、地震峰值加速度、地震烈度等地表地震安全性评价考量的要素与地下空间埋藏深度建立联系,并在此基础上总结基于震害统计的地下空间地震安全性评价方法。最后,本文选取地下空间利用需求较高的深圳和北京地区为实例进行介绍。 相似文献
7.
The M w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake occurred on April 11, 2012 near the NW junction of three plates viz. Indian, Australian and Sunda plate, which caused widespread coseismic displacements and Coulomb stress changes. We analyzed the GPS data from three IGS sites PBRI, NTUS & COCO and computed the coseismic horizontal displacements. In order to have in-depth understanding of the physics of earthquake processes and probabilistic hazard, we estimated the coseismic displacements and associated Coulomb stress changes from two rectangular parallel fault geometries, constrained by Global Positioning System (GPS) derived coseismic displacements. The Coulomb stress changes following the earthquake found to be in the range of 5 to ?4 bar with maximum displacement of ～11 m near the epicenter. We find that most of the aftershocks occurred in the areas of increased Coulomb stress and concentrated in three clusters. The temporal variation of the aftershocks, not conformed to modified Omori’s law, speculating poroelastic processes. It is also ascertained that the spatio-temporal transient stress changes may promote the occurrence of the subsequent earthquakes and enhance the seismic risk in the region. 相似文献
8.
震级-频度分布（FMD）是地震学研究中最重要的经验公式之一,相关系数b是构造学和地震危险性评估的重要因子,具有表征前震和余震的特性。辽宁省地震多发生在金州断裂附近,自1975年海城7.3级地震发生后,与金州断裂交汇的海城河—大洋河断裂开启活跃模式,其东南端岫岩附近在1999年又发生5.6级地震。近年来盖州附近地震活动也在增强。因此,本文利用b值空间分布特征对海城及其邻区的应力分布特点进行研究。震源定位准确与否直接影响b值计算,双差定位后的数据与常规目录相比具有更高的精度,但是完整性有一定下降。本文收集了中国地震台网1981—2005年的辽宁省地震目录,并进行双差定位,比较分析了常规目录数据和双差数据的b值分布差异,认为在地震密集区,双差定位后的数据可以被用来获得更准确的b值。对主要研究区进行网格划分,使用双差数据,得到b值的水平和垂直分布特征。结果表明：b值为0.6~1.8,随深度增加而降低;岫岩和盖州震区具有较低的b值,意味着具有较高的地震危险性;浑河震区与海城河—大洋河断裂东南方向具有较高的b值,说明该区域未来发生大地震的概率很低;与金州断裂交汇区域的b值在1.0附近,说明该地区应力暂时处于稳定状态,未来具有较低的地震危险性。 相似文献
9.
Post-glacial tectonic faults in the eastern Swiss Alps occur as single lineaments, clusters of faults or extensive fault zones consisting of several individual faults aligned along the same trend. The orientation of the faults reflects the underlying lithology and the pre-existing structures (joints, pervasive foliations) within these lithologies. Most post-glacially formed faults in the area around Chur, which undergoes active surface uplift of 1.6 mm/year, trend E–W and cut across Alpine and glacial features such as active screes and moraines. Additionally, there are NNW and ENE striking faults reactivating pervasive Alpine foliations and shear zones. Based on a comparison with the nodal planes of recent earthquakes, E–W striking faults are interpreted as active faults. Because of very short rupture lengths and mismatches of fault location with earthquake distribution, magnitude and abundance, the faults are considered to be secondary faults due to earthquake shaking, cumulative deformation in post- or interseismic periods or creep, and not primary earthquake-related faults. The maximum of recent surface uplift rates coincides with the youngest cooling of the rocks according to apatite fission-track data and is therefore a long-lived feature that extends well into pre-glacial times. Isostatic rebound owing to overthickened crust or to melting of glacial overburden cannot explain the observed surface uplift pattern. Rather, the faults, earthquakes and surface uplift patterns suggest that the Alps are deforming under active compression and that the Aar massif basement uplift is still active in response to ongoing collision. 相似文献
10.
活动断裂的变形特征及其大地震复发周期的估算 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
活动断裂是晚更新世10~12万年以来一直在活动, 现在正在活动, 未来一定时期内仍会发生活动的各类断裂。活动断裂控制着大地震的发生,是不同类型地震的发震构造。从活动断裂的变形特征来看,不同性质的活动断裂具有不同的发震构造模型,研究这些问题对认识强震的发震条件,划分潜在的震源区或地震危险区,评估发震构造和发震地点具有重要的意义。基于国内外对不同类型活动断裂的认识,结合近10年来在青藏高原地区对活动断裂的研究,总结了活动断裂的基本变形特征和对大地震复发周期估算的认识。研究表明,东昆仑断裂库塞湖段类似2001年Ms 8.1级大地震的强震复发周期为250～350年,阿尔金断裂康西瓦段类似Ms 7.4大地震的强震复发周期为370～500年,而在青藏高原东缘的龙门山地区,类似2008年5月12日Ms 8.0汶川大地震的强震复发周期为3000～6000年。这些结果可能暗示着走滑断裂大地震的复发周期远短于逆冲断裂大地震的长复发周期,这是值得高度重视和深入研究的新课题。 相似文献
11.
A simplified tectonic scheme for hazard purposes was recently adopted for northeastern Italy, introducing large generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. This scheme considers only major faults with documented seismic activity. In the present analysis, a different tectonic scheme, with linear elements as seismogenic sources, is presented. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done with the fault rupture model, its most important advantage being the recognition that the length of fault rupture during an earthquake is an important consideration in probabilistic calculations of seismic hazard. Moreover, some structures with no associated seismicity but with notable neotectonic activity are considered, and their contribution to the results investigated. Important uncertainties such as those in the maximum possible magnitude of future earthquakes, in the location of the fault, in the focal depth, and in the attenuation law are accounted for in the calculations and their influence studied. The results identify a seismic belt running from Lake Garda to Friuli and along the Yugoslav coast and are very similar to those already known for Friuli, with the largest values corresponding to the zone around Gemona. Some slight differences in the shape of the areas of equal acceleration are probably due to the delineation of the seismic sources of the proposed model. For a cautious elaboration, some neotectonic lines without present seismicity were added into the fault model. Their contribution is negligible in the areas of highest acceleration, but increases remarkably in the areas where acceleration is not expected to exceed the medium values. 相似文献
12.
A moderate-sized (Mw 5.3) earthquake occurred in the Dead Sea basin on February 11, 2004. A rigorous seismological analysis of the main shock and numerous aftershocks suggests that seismogenic structure was a secondary, antithetic fault within the Dead Sea fault system. The main shock is well located using all available regional seismic stations, and 43 aftershocks were precisely located relative to the main shock using a double difference algorithm. The first motion, focal mechanism for this earthquake demonstrates NNW–SSE and ENE–WSW striking nodal planes, and the aftershocks distribution is consistent with the latter — indicating a right-lateral sense of displacement. This orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly oriented geological faults around the Dead Sea basin — these structures are likely antithetic faults within the transform system. Although moderate in size, earthquakes that occur very close to the large Dead Sea fault system warrant consideration in the earthquake hazard assessment of the region: For example, owing to the proximity to the main fault, moderate earthquakes such as this may produce static changes in Coulomb stress along the main fault. 相似文献
13.
Areas of low strain rate are typically characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The earthquake catalogs for these regions
do not usually include large earthquakes because of their long recurrence periods. In cases where the recurrence period of
large earthquakes is much longer than the catalog time span, probabilistic seismic hazard is underestimated. The information
provided by geological and paleo-seismological studies can potentially improve seismic hazard estimation through renewal models,
which assume characteristic earthquakes. In this work, we compare the differences produced when active faults in the northwestern
margin of the València trough are introduced in hazard analysis. The differences between the models demonstrate that the introduction
of faults in zones characterized by low seismic activity can give rise to significant changes in the hazard values and location.
The earthquake and fault seismic parameters (recurrence interval, segmentation or fault length that controls the maximum magnitude
earthquake and time elapsed since the last event or Te) were studied to ascertain their effect on the final hazard results. The most critical parameter is the recurrence interval,
where shorter recurrences produce higher hazard values. The next most important parameter is the fault segmentation. Higher
hazard values are obtained when the fault has segments capable of producing big earthquakes. Finally, the least critical parameter
is the time elapsed since the last event (Te), when longer Te produces higher hazard values. 相似文献
14.
A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the
world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure
of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided
into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved
by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory,
and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology
used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been
identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern
of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into
transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction,
etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed
on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably
decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include
concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO
zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source.
Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical
and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database
that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required
for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic
earthquake effects in a predetermined location. 相似文献
15.
This article is devoted to evaluating destructive earthquakes (magnitude >6) of Iran and determining properties of their source parameters. First of all, a database of documented earthquakes has been prepared via reliable references and causative faults of each event have been determined. Then, geometric parameters of each fault have been presented completely. Critical parameters such as Maximum Credible Rupture, MCR, and Maximum Credible Earthquake, MCE, have been compiled based on the geometrical parameters of the earthquake faults. The calculated parameters have been compared to the maximum earthquake and the surface rupture which have been recorded for the earthquake faults. Also, the distance between the epicenter of documented earthquake events and their causative faults has been calculated (the distance was less than 20 km for 90% of the data). Then, the distance between destructive earthquakes (with the magnitude more than 6) and the nearest active fault has been calculated. If the estimated distance is less than 20 km and the mechanism of the active fault and the event are reported the same, the active fault will be introduced as a probable causative fault of that earthquake. In the process, all of the available geological, tectonic, seismotectonic maps, aerial geophysical data as well as remote sensing images have been evaluated. Based on the quality and importance of earthquake data, the events have been classified into three categories: (1) the earthquakes which have their causative faults documented, (2) the events with magnitude higher than 7, and (3) the events with the magnitude between 6 and 7. For each category, related maps and tables have been compiled and presented. Some important faults and events have been also described throughout the paper. As mentioned in this paper, these faults are likely to be in high seismic regions with potential for large-magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margins characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface. 相似文献
16.
花东纵谷断层是中国台湾动力作用和地壳运动变形最强烈的断层之一,其断层运动特征和强震危险程度一直备受学者的关注。文中分别以同震地表位移、1992-1999年震间形变数据为约束,反演2003年成功MW 6.8地震同震位错分布和花东纵谷断层震间运动特征。结果表明：花东纵谷断层北段处于强闭锁状态（闭锁率高达0.9）,闭锁深度深（约27 km）;南段闭锁程度较弱（闭锁率约0.5）,闭锁深度较浅（约12 km）;中段闭锁程度与闭锁深度介于南北段之间。另一方面,2003年成功MW 6.8地震微观震中位于震间无震滑移区与闭锁区的过渡带附近。依据同震位错、震间断层运动反演结果,以及历史强震破裂分布特征,分析认为,花东纵谷断层南北段运动方式存在差异性,北段主要以强震形式运动,南段以蠕滑和地震两种形式运动。自1951年花莲-台东ML 7.3地震序列后,花东纵谷断层南段、中段和北段至2016年所累积的矩能量分别等价MW 6.4、MW 7.0、MW 7.4地震;若发生级联破裂,整个断层至2016年所累积的矩能量等价MW 7.5地震。 相似文献
17.
活动断裂的变形特征及其大地震复发周期的估算 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
活动断裂是晚更新世10～12万年以来一直在活动.现在正在活动,未来一定时期内仍会发生活动的各类断裂.活动断裂控制着大地震的发生,是不同类型地震的发震构造.从活动断裂的变形特征来看,不同性质的活动断裂具有不同的发震构造模型,研究这些问题对认识强震的发震条件,划分潜在的震源区或地震危险区,评估发震构造和发震地点具有重要的意义.基于国内外对不同类型活动断裂的认识,结合近10年来在青藏高原地区对活动断裂的研究,总结了活动断裂的基本变形特征和对大地震复发周期估算的认识.研究表明.东昆仑断裂库塞湖段类似2001年Ms 8.1级大地震的强震复发周期为250～350年,阿尔金断裂康西瓦段类似Ms 7.4级大地震的强震复发周期为370～500年.而在青藏高原东缘的龙门山地区,类似2008年5月12日Ms 8.0级汶川大地震的强震复发周期为3000～6000年.这些结果可能暗示着走滑断裂大地震的复发周期远短于逆冲断裂大地震的长复发周期,这是值得高度重视和深入研究的新课题. 相似文献
18.
大地震发生后, 研究地震的发生对周围断层的影响尤为重要.利用川西-藏东地区三维粘弹性有限元模型,考虑地表高程和粘弹性松弛等因素的影响,研究主要断裂带库仑应力累积速率和汶川地震的发生对周围断层的影响.结果表明:(1)龙门山断裂带年累积速率为0.28×10-3~0.35×10-3 MPa/a,这种较小的累积速率与龙门山断裂带强震较长复发间隔一致;(2)汶川地震的发生除造成震源区应力减小外, 还造成断裂带北东段不同程度的应力增加, 这与震后余震的分布基本吻合;(3)鲜水河断裂北西段、东昆仑、龙日坝、岷江以及虎牙断裂库仑应力水平增加显著,且汶川地震对于玉树地震的发生有微弱的加载效应;(4)汶川地震的发生造成鲜水河断裂带强震复发间隔缩短约52~104 a,是值得关注的强震危险区. 相似文献
19.
Although it is generally considered that near-surface earthquakes result from movements along faults that cut through the surface, several recent large earthquakes have been partly attributed to blind thrusts. Movements along blind thrusts lead to the formation of surface folds, which are highly dependent upon fault geometry at depth and often not considered in seismic hazard evaluation. Several authors have studied the relationship between surface folding and thrusting for geological situations in which fault geometries are quite simple. However, active fault geometries can be quite complex e.g., segmented thrust faults associated with strike-slip faults. The aim of this contribution is to reconstruct the fault kinematics at depth for a relatively complex geological structure located in the Eastern Betic Cordilleras (Orihuela-Guardamar-Torrevieja region) using the patterns of kilometre-scale folds observed in the field. In order to model surface deformation, the assumption is made that surface km-scale folds have been created by coseismic deformation associated with movement along blind thrusts. By means of a coseismic deformation model, movements at depth have been calculated for three possible hypotheses. Hypothesis 1 assumes that each superficial fold is created by an independent fault. Hypotheses 2 and 3 assume that a sequence of two superficial folds can be created by movement along a single fault displaying a flat and ramp geometry. In Hypothesis 2, the flat is a superficial décollement level between the sedimentary cover and the Betic basement; in Hypothesis 3, it is a deeper décollement level within the Betic basement.
Knowing the approximate age of surface deformation, rough estimates of fault slip-rates and recurrence periods for two possible earthquake magnitudes (7 Ms and 6.7 Ms) have been made, from calculated dislocations at depth. Slip-rates and recurrence periods for flat and ramp fault geometries are in the range of 0.75–1 mm/yr and 1000–2000 yr, respectively. These values are close to those calculated by direct methods in similar seismotectonic contexts. 相似文献
20.
《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part A: Solid Earth and Geodesy》1999,24(2):105-110
We have computed static stress changes associated to several earthquakes occurred in the Apennine chain, in Italy. Stress associated with fault slip has been computed by the Okada (1992) formulation. Static Coulomb stress changes associated to three subevents forming the Irpinia, 1980, Ms=6.9 main shock indicate that such subevents have been consecutively triggered, each one by stress changes produced by previous ones. Furthermore, aftershocks of this complex faulting event are well correlated with zones of maximum increase of Coulomb stress. The interplay of regional stress and of local stress changes due to the mainshock produces an aftershock distribution considerably wide and a large variability of focal mechanisms. Variability of focal mechanism is consistent with a low level of background regional stress (less than 2 Mpa). The analysis of two further seismic sequence in the central Apennine, occurred on 1979 close to Norcia town (ML=5.9) and on 1984 in National Park of Abruzzo (ML=5.5), also show a clear correlation of aftershock occurrence with positive Coulomb stress changes generated by mainshocks. The static stress change due to the mainshock of 1984, in Abruzzo region, is likely to have triggered, 4 days after, a further mainshock (ML=5.1) on the northern edge prolongation of the main fault, where the Coulomb stress change is maximum.Such evidences indicate a strong correlation among earthquakes in the Apennine chain, trough static stress changes, at several time and space scales. Modelling of such effects is useful both for improving our knowledge of the earthquake dynamics and for a better evaluation of seismic hazard in Italy. 相似文献