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1.
The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is often defined as the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time
periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to earth tide induced Coulomb Failure Stress change on optimally oriented
faults. According to the method, anomalous increase in the time series of LURR usually occurs prior to occurrence of a large
earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the stress field that existed before a large earthquake has strong influence
on the evaluation of LURR. In order to augment the sensitivity of LURR in measuring the criticality of stress accumulation
before an earthquake, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic
stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. Coulomb stress change
before the hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. Retrospective
test of this new algorithm on the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake shows remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomaly.
To illustrate the variation of LURR time series associated with our choice of identified areas with increased Coulomb stress
before the earthquake, we calculate the spatial distributions of LURR within a circular region of 700 km radius centered at
epicenter of the event. Comparing the spatial LURR distributions of different periods, the change of LURR within the Coulomb
stress increase areas looks more prominent than the others: it remains at a low level for most of the time and markedly increases
few years before the quake. This result further shows the validity of the Coulomb stress algorithm. Unlike circular regions,
areas of increased Coulomb stress with anomalously increased LURR values before a large earthquake could provide a relatively
more precise estimation of the criticality of the ensuing event. 相似文献
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20100124山西河津M4.8地震前,临汾地震台宽频倾斜仪记录到与实验室岩石破裂亚失稳过程类似图像,震源及附近地区也出现多项准同步性的短临异常。本文对这次地震前震源及附近地区多种地球物理场观测数据在发震断层黏滑失稳前不同阶段的变化特征进行了探讨。结果表明：1）震前记录到的亚失稳现象并非单点单测项,而是具有多点多物理场的群体性特征;2）这些异常出现的时间与临汾宽频倾斜仪记录的亚失稳事件时间基本同步,其形态上以大幅突变为主,时间上多集中在震前45 d左右,空间上主要集中在距震中100 km的范围内,且具有随时间从外围向震中区集中的特点;3）震前不仅在多种地球物理场观测数据中记录到类似亚失稳现象,而且在震前1~6 d一些地球物理场观测仪器还记录到与发震断层失稳前预滑有关的小事件;4）震前临汾宽频倾斜仪记录到的亚失稳现象、震源及附近地区出现多项准同步性的短临异常,是在震源及附近地区的区域应力场增强、介质特性发生改变的情况下出现的,可能与河津地震有关;5）震前多种地球物理场异常随时间推移显示出协同化的特点,即沿发震断裂方向有由外围向震中迁移和集中的特点。 相似文献
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We estimated spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stress within the subducted Pacific slab in Hokkaido from the analysis of seismicity rate change. For this purpose we used earthquake catalog from the Institute of Seismology and Volcanology (ISV), Hokkaido University for the period 1993/4/1–2006/12/31 after relocating to compensate location errors due to the heterogeneous P- and S-wave structure beneath Hokkaido. We found that spatial pattern of Coulomb stress change inverted from the seismicity rate change is comparable with static change in Coulomb stress estimated from dislocation models. Our results and analyses reveal important insights on spatio-temporal pattern of deformation of the subducted Pacific slab in terms of Coulomb stress change. We found that the 2003 Tokachi Oki earthquake (Mw = 8.0) pervasively perturbed Coulomb stress in a regional scale with a significant impact to trigger the 2004 Kushiro Oki earthquake. The 2004 Kushiro Oki earthquake (Mw = 7.0) is another significant stressing event that changed the pattern of Coulomb stress in the area. We found that stressing events with magnitude smaller than 7.0 has minimal impact on Coulomb stress change in the Pacific slab. Similarly, comparatively deep focused large earthquakes could not change Coulomb stress significantly. Further the pattern of Coulomb stress change after the 2003 Tokachi Oki earthquake correlates the pattern of afterslip distribution in Hokkaido. 相似文献
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青藏高原东北缘4个强震重点监视区库仑破裂应力的近百年变化和危险性分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对青藏高原东北缘地区前人基于多学科研究资料圈定的4个未来强震重点监视区,构建了顾及到中下地壳黏弹性弛豫效应的区域岩石圈模型;考虑1920-2010年期间发生在本区域及其周边的18次Ｍs≥７级强震在这一区域的黏弹性静态库仑破裂应力变化,和长期构造背景加载下的应力积累情况,定量分析了每个重点监视区近百年来的库仑破裂应力变化,并在此基础上初步分析了各重点监视区的未来发震危险性程度。结果表明：西秦岭断裂带监视区和六盘山断裂带监视区均处于长期构造背景场和历史地震影响共同加载应力的状况;而海原断裂带监视区和东昆仑断裂带监视区,如果不考虑长期构造背景的应力加载,则处于地震影响的卸载状况。考虑到这4个重点监视区的大震平均复发周期及上次大震事件的离逝时间,认为西秦岭断裂带监视区的未来强震危险性程度最高,海原断裂带次之,然后是东昆仑断裂带和六盘山断裂带。 相似文献
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汶川5．12地震引起的库仑应力变化及其对周边地震活动的影响 总被引：9，自引：9，他引：0
汶川"5.12"8.0级特大地震,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。地震对周围地区断层活动性的影响和余震发展方向是人们关心的一个问题。根据汶川地震同震静态位移我们计算了周围地区一些断层的库仑应力变化,并据此评价了震后周围地区断层和地震的活动性。计算结果表明,龙门山断裂带东北段,包括北川、青川、宁强等地,为库仑应力增强区,有利于地震的发生。较大的余震分布与库仑应力增强区有较好的对应关系。鲜水河断裂带主要为库仑应力下降区,只有一小段为增高区,鲜水河断裂带总体上不利于地震活动。成都地区的西北部库仑应力增强,东南部应力下降。库仑应力变化的研究对大震后地震趋势的分析有重要意义。 相似文献
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以山东郯城1668年大地震为例,以前人地表地质调查结果为约束,利用弹性位错理论初步获取了该地震的同震破裂模型;在此基础上,基于粘弹性分层模型分析了该地震的同震和震后形变,同时以主震断层为接收断层计算了库仑应力分布,进一步讨论了地幔不同粘滞性系数对地表形变和库仑应力变化的影响。计算结果显示,该地震是一个右旋走滑为主兼有一定逆冲性质的地震,其同震位移巨大,能量释放较彻底;同震破裂造成震中郯城县西北、东北和南部部分断层库仑应力增加,而震后形变使得这些断层库仑应力进一步增加,在单县、宿迁和日照等地,地震后350 a库仑应力变化量达到+1bar-+1MPa量级;地幔粘滞性系数不同,形变量和库仑应力变化达到稳定的时间不同,但最终趋于稳定的数值基本一致。 相似文献
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We perform a global statistical investigation into the problem of Coulomb stress triggering of earthquakes by using the Harvard CMT catalogue of shallow earthquakes from 1976 to 2001. We consider ‘earthquake pairs’, i.e., pairs of successive earthquakes occurring near each other with similar focal mechanisms, and address the problem of whether or not the change of the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) produced by the first earthquake of the pair ‘encourages’ the occurrence of the second one. An interesting feature is that such a Coulomb stress-triggering phenomenon has an apparent focal mechanism dependence: for thrust earthquakes, a more evident triggering effect can be observed. 相似文献
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大地震发生后, 研究地震的发生对周围断层的影响尤为重要.利用川西-藏东地区三维粘弹性有限元模型,考虑地表高程和粘弹性松弛等因素的影响,研究主要断裂带库仑应力累积速率和汶川地震的发生对周围断层的影响.结果表明:(1)龙门山断裂带年累积速率为0.28×10-3~0.35×10-3 MPa/a,这种较小的累积速率与龙门山断裂带强震较长复发间隔一致;(2)汶川地震的发生除造成震源区应力减小外, 还造成断裂带北东段不同程度的应力增加, 这与震后余震的分布基本吻合;(3)鲜水河断裂北西段、东昆仑、龙日坝、岷江以及虎牙断裂库仑应力水平增加显著,且汶川地震对于玉树地震的发生有微弱的加载效应;(4)汶川地震的发生造成鲜水河断裂带强震复发间隔缩短约52~104 a,是值得关注的强震危险区. 相似文献
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采用β统计对汶川地震前后鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区的地震活动率进行了空间扫描分析,并采用JiChen的震源破裂模型计算了汶川地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,以研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系。结果发现,鄂尔多斯块体西南缘弧形断裂束的南东段与南缘渭河盆地的地震活动率在汶川地震后提高显著,其他区域的地震活动率没有明显提高,库仑破裂应力计算得到两个区域的应力变化范围分别为0.005～0.02 MPa和0.001～0.01 MPa,表明汶川地震有可能触发了这两个区域的地震活动。鄂尔多斯块体东缘的山西断陷带处于库仑破裂应力计算的应力增加区,应力变化范围为0～0.012 MPa,2009年3月以来发生的4次ML4.5～5.2级强有感至微破坏地震有可能被汶川地震所延迟触发。b值、地震能量释放率与空间相关距离SCL等地震活动性参数随时间变化扫描结果显示,该区域可能处于不断趋近高应力累积的状态,其未来大震有可能提前发生。西缘地区为应力减小区,其目前的地震活动处于正常水平状态。 相似文献
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基于青藏高原及邻区的三维粘弹性有限元模型,讨论2008年于田MS7.3级地震与2014年于田MS7.3级地震之间的关系,并研究2014年于田MS7.3级地震的发生造成周围断层的库仑破裂应力变化。初步结果表明:1)2008年于田MS7.3级地震在2014年于田MS7.3级地震震中滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂应力变化高于地震触发的阈值0.01 MPa,存在明显的触发作用。在视摩擦系数分别取0.4和0.6时,震源区同震库仑破裂应力变化为0.0167 MPa和0.0170 MPa;而考虑粘弹性松弛作用时产生的库仑应力增加量分别为0.0187 MPa和0.0194 MPa。结合断裂带构造应力年累计速率的结果,2008年于田地震的发生造成2014年于田地震提前21.4~24.9 a;2)在较短的时间尺度内,对于距离相近的两次地震之间,同震产生的应力变化远大于粘弹性松弛效应产生的变化;3)2014年于田MS7.3级地震的发生造成阿尔金断裂中北段、玛尼—玉树断裂中段、东昆仑断裂西段、柴达木北缘断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂西段等不同程度的加载效应,地震危险性有所增强。其中阿尔金断裂中段库仑应力增加最为明显,最大达2.8×10–3 MPa;玛尼—玉树断裂中段次之,应力增加量最大达5.6×10–4 MPa;东昆仑断裂西段应力增加量最大达4.75×10–4 MPa。而玛尼—玉树断裂西段库仑破裂应力最大卸载量达3.6×10–3 MPa。 相似文献
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The 2,026 earthquake events registered by the Sichuan regional digital seismic network and mobile seismic array after the April 20 th,2013 Lushan earthquake and 28,188 pieces of data were selected to determine direct P waves arrival times. We applied the tomographic method to inverse the characteristics of the velocity structure for the three-dimensional(3D) P wave in the mid-upper crust of the seismic source region of the Lushan earthquake. The imaging results were combined with the apparent magnetization inversion and magnetotelluric(MT) sounding retest data to comprehensively study the causes of the deep seismogenic environment in the southern section of the Longmenshan fault zone and explore the formation of the Lushan earthquake. Research has shown that there are obvious differences in velocity structure and magnetic distribution between the southern and northern sections of the Longmenshan fault zone. The epicenter of the Lushan earthquake is located near the boundary of the high and low-velocity anomalies and favorable for a high-velocity section. Moreover,at the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake located on the magnetic dome boundary of Ya’an,the development of high velocity and magnetic solid medium favors the accumulation and release of strain energy. Lowvelocity anomalies are distributed underneath the are of seismogenic origin,The inversion results of the MT retest data after the April 20 th Lushan earthquake also indicate that there a high-conductor anomaly occurs under the area of seismogenic origin of the Lushan earthquake,Therefore,we speculated that the presence of a high-conductivity anomaly and low-velocity anomaly underneath the seismogenic body of the Lushan earthquake could be related to the existence of fluids. The role of fluids caused the weakening of the seismogenic layer inside the mid-upper crust and resulted in a seismogenic fault that was prone to rupture and played a triggering role in the Lushan earthquake. 相似文献
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对发震带试验计划(SEIZE)以及南海（Nankai）海槽的发震带钻探计划（NanTroSEIZE）进行了综述。SEIZE作为大陆边缘计划(MARGINS)的重要研究内容和综合大洋钻探计划（IODP）的优先研究领域,重点对世界主要俯冲发震带进行研究。SEIZE的主要研究内容包括：①凸凹体的物理性质;②在地震周期里,应力、应变和孔隙流体成分随时间的变化;③在俯冲逆冲断层上,发震带上界和下界的确定;④引起海啸的发震带的特征;⑤大型逆冲带地震在物质转换过程中所起的作用。NanTroSEIZE将成为IODP第一个基于立管钻探的计划,也是科学大洋钻探历史上第一个分期实施的复合钻探计划;钻入发震带的复合钻探计划将最终验证关于发震带的各种假说。 相似文献
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1976年7月28日3点42分在我国河北省唐山地区发生了7.8级强烈地震。地震的发生,是有它的区域构造背景和震区的构造条件的。深入研究这个问题,对认识地震的形成、孕育和发生是十分有意义的。唐山地震震中与深大断裂没有表现直接的联系,而是分布在不引入注目的北东向断裂上。其控制因素我们认为是包围震区的边界断裂起了重要作用。边界断裂的存在使被围限的北东向断裂得到了暂时的平衡,形成相对“闭锁”区段。当区域应力场急剧变化时,“闭锁”就被突破,产生大地震。 相似文献
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A moderate-sized (Mw 5.3) earthquake occurred in the Dead Sea basin on February 11, 2004. A rigorous seismological analysis of the main shock and numerous aftershocks suggests that seismogenic structure was a secondary, antithetic fault within the Dead Sea fault system. The main shock is well located using all available regional seismic stations, and 43 aftershocks were precisely located relative to the main shock using a double difference algorithm. The first motion, focal mechanism for this earthquake demonstrates NNW–SSE and ENE–WSW striking nodal planes, and the aftershocks distribution is consistent with the latter — indicating a right-lateral sense of displacement. This orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly oriented geological faults around the Dead Sea basin — these structures are likely antithetic faults within the transform system. Although moderate in size, earthquakes that occur very close to the large Dead Sea fault system warrant consideration in the earthquake hazard assessment of the region: For example, owing to the proximity to the main fault, moderate earthquakes such as this may produce static changes in Coulomb stress along the main fault. 相似文献
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The Mw7.5 Palu earthquake that occurred on September 28, 2018, in Indonesia caused much damage to the city of Palu. Preliminary investigations indicated that the Palu‐Koro Fault (PKF) hosted this damaging event. We calculated the seismicity before and after the 1996 Minahasa Mw7.9 earthquake and found that the seismicity on the PKF was enhanced after this earthquake. The earlier earthquake added Coulomb stress changes (?CFS) to the seismogenic fault plane. We calculated the ?CFS produced by the Palu earthquake on a specified received nodal plane; the results suggest that many aftershocks occurred in the region of increased ?CFS. This region was consistent with the region of increased seismicity. The ?CFS on neighbouring faults increased, and up to 55.282 bar of stress was observed on the PKF. Furthermore, we calculated the expected seismicity rate and found that it will require ~50 years to recover to its original level. 相似文献
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In the southern South–North Seismic Zone, China, seismic activity in the Yingjiang area of western Yunnan increased from December 2010, and eventually a destructive earthquake of Ms5.9 occurred near Yingjiang town on 10 March 2011. The focal mechanism and hypocenter location of the mainshock suggest that the Dayingjiang Fault was the site of the mainshock rupture. However, most of foreshocks and all aftershocks recorded by a portable seismic array located close to the mainshock occurred along the N–S-striking Sudian Fault, indicating that this fault had an important influence on these shocks. Coulomb stress calculations show that three strong(magnitude ≥5.0) earthquakes that occurred in the study region in 2008 increased the coulomb stress along the plane parallel to the Dayingjiang Fault. This supports the Dayingjiang Fault, and not the Sudian Fault, as the seismogenic fault of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang earthquake. The strong earthquakes in 2008 also increased the Coulomb stress at depths of ≤5 km along the entire Sudian Fault, and by doing so increased the shallow seismic activity along the fault. This explains why the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2011 Yingjiang earthquake were located mostly on the Sudian Fault where it cuts the shallow crust. The earthquakes at the intersection of the Sudian and Dayingjiang faults are distributed mainly along a belt that dips to the southeast at ~40°, suggesting that the Dayingjiang Fault in the mainshock area also dips to the southeast at ~40°. 相似文献
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2019年6月17日四川长宁县发生6.0级地震,该次地震余震活动频度高、强度大,其中超过5.0级的强余震就有4次,具有不同于以往6.0级地震的独特特征.余震活动与震后区域应力变化密切相关,为研究它们之间的关系,考虑区域主要活动构造、地表起伏和深部反演结果,建立长宁地区岩石圈三维黏弹性有限元模型.采用数值方法重建基本符合研究区GPS观测和最大水平主压应力方向测量结果的现今构造背景应力场.进而依次模拟了长宁6.0级地震和5.0级以上强余震序列.通过计算库仑破裂应力变化研究了震后应力演化与余震分布,以及主震和5.0级强余震序列之间的关系.研究表明,长宁6.0级地震的发生可能与区域内非构造加载因素有关,余震活动明显受震后区域应力变化的控制.长宁地震后,于滩-长宁背斜在10 km深度应力得到充分释放,库仑破裂应力明显减小;而在3 km深度库仑破裂应力明显增加,应力水平仍然较高. 相似文献
20.
针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。 相似文献