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1.
Southwest British Columbia has the potential to experience large‐magnitude earthquakes generated by the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Buildings in Metro Vancouver are particularly vulnerable to these earthquakes because the region lies above the Georgia sedimentary basin, which can amplify the intensity of ground motions, particularly at medium‐to‐long periods. Earthquake design provisions in Canada neglect basin amplification and the consequences of accounting for these effects are uncertain. By leveraging a suite of physics‐based simulations of M9 CSZ earthquakes, we develop site‐specific and period‐dependent spectral acceleration basin amplification factors throughout Metro Vancouver. The M9 simulations, which explicitly account for basin amplification for periods greater than 1s, are benchmarked against the 2016 BC Hydro ground motion model (GMM), which neglects such effects. Outside the basin, empirical and simulated seismic hazard estimates are consistent. However, for sites within the basin and periods in the 1‐5 s range, GMMs significantly underestimate the hazard. The proposed basin amplification factors vary as a function of basin depth, reaching a geometric mean value as high as 4.5 at a 2‐s period, with respect to a reference site located just outside the basin. We evaluate the impact of the M9 simulations on tall reinforced concrete shear wall buildings, which are predominant in the region, by developing a suite of idealized structural systems that capture the strength and ductility intended by historical seismic design provisions in Canada. Ductility demands and collapse risk conditioned on the occurrence of the M9 simulations were found to exceed those associated with ground motion shaking intensities corresponding to the 975 and 2475‐year return periods, far exceeding the ～500‐year return period of M9 CSZ earthquakes.  相似文献   

2.
We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.  相似文献   

3.
The Son-Narmada-Tapti lineament and its surroundings of Central India (CI) is the second most important tectonic regime following the converging margin along Himalayas-Myanmar-Andaman of the Indian sub-continent, which attracted several geoscientists to assess its seismic hazard potential. Our study area, a part of CI, is bounded between latitudes 18°–26°N and longitudes 73°–83°E, representing a stable part of Peninsular India. Past damaging moderate magnitude earthquakes as well as continuing microseismicity in the area provided enough data for seismological study. Our estimates based on regional Gutenberg–Richter relationship showed lower b values (i.e., between 0.68 and 0.76) from the average for the study area. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis carried out over the area with a radius of ~300 km encircling Bhopal yielded a conspicuous relationship between earthquake return period (T) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). Analyses of T and PGA shows that PGA value at bedrock varies from 0.08 to 0.15 g for 10 % (T = 475 years) and 2 % (T = 2,475 years) probabilities exceeding 50 years, respectively. We establish the empirical relationships $ {\text{ZPA}}_{(T = 475)} = 0.1146\;[V_{\text{s}} (30)]^{ - 0.2924}, $ and $ {\text{ZPA}}_{(T = 2475)} = 0.2053\;[V_{\text{s}} (30)]^{ - 0.2426} $ between zero period acceleration (ZPA) and shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m [V s (30)] for the two different return periods. These demonstrate that the ZPA values decrease with increasing shear wave velocity, suggesting a diagnostic indicator for designing the structures at a specific site of interest. The predictive designed response spectra generated at a site for periods up to 4.0 s at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance of ground motion for 50 years can be used for designing duration dependent structures of variable vertical dimension. We infer that this concept of assimilating uniform hazard response spectra and predictive design at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years at 5 % damping at bedrocks of different categories may offer potential inputs for designing earthquake resistant structures of variable dimensions for the CI region under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program for India.  相似文献   

4.
A seismic hazard assessment study of continental Ecuador is presented in this paper. The study begins with a revision of the available information on seismic events and the elaboration of a seismic catalog homogenized to magnitude Mw. Different seismic source definitions are revised and a new area-source model, based on geological and seismic data, is proposed. The available ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction sources are analyzed and selected for the tectonic environments observed in Ecuador. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is carried out to evaluate the exceedance probability of several levels of peak ground acceleration PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods (T) of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. The resulting hazard maps for continental Ecuador are presented, together with the uniform hazard spectra of four province capital cities. Hazard disaggregation is carried out for target motions defined by the PGA values and SA (1s) expected for return periods of 475 and 2475 years, providing estimates for short-period and long-period controlling earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
—?The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes, is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method that allows easy parametric tests. Starting from the actually available strong motion database, we can make realistic predictions for the possible ground motion. The basic information necessary for the modeling consists of: (a) The representative mechanisms for the strong subcrustal events, (b) the average regional structural model, and (c) the local structure for Bucharest. Two scenario earthquakes are considered and the source influence on the local response is analyzed in order to define generally valid ground motion parameters, to be used in the seismic hazard estimations. The source has its own (detectable) contribution on the ground motion and its effects on the local response in Bucharest are quite stable on the transversal component (T), while the radial (R) and vertical (V) components are sensitive to the scenario earthquake. Although the strongest local effects affect the T component, both observed and synthetic, a complete determination of the seismic input for the built environment requires the knowledge of all three components of motion (R, V, T). The damage observed in Bucharest for the March 4, 1977 Vrancea event, the strongest earthquake to strike the city in modern times, is in agreement with the synthetic signals and local response.  相似文献   

6.
This work summarises the seismic hazard analysis performed for the complete characterisation of strong ground-motion at the site of the Itoiz dam (Western Pyrenees, Spain). The hazard analysis includes the compilation of a composite catalogue from French and Spanish agencies, the definition of an original hybrid seismogenic source model (including zones and major faults) and the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Hazard results are provided as hazard curves and acceleration response spectra on rock for the 1000- and 5000-year return periods, which correspond respectively to the operating basis earthquake (OBE) and safety evaluation earthquake (SEE). The impact of truncating GMPEs at a number of standard deviations (epsilon) has been found not critical here for the return periods targeted. Subsequently, an analysis of the contribution of each source to total hazard and a hazard disaggregation analysis are performed in order to establish the earthquake-source parameters for both the OBE and SEE scenarios consistently with the seismotectonics of the region. The European Strong Motion database is then searched and a selection of records is proposed for each of the scenarios. Our results suggest that seismic hazard in the region is underestimated by the official Spanish seismic hazard map included in the current version of the code (NCSE-02), which is the reference document for the definition of seismic actions for dam projects in the whole Pyrenees.  相似文献   

7.
基于日本KiK-Net、K-Net地震台网和太平洋地震工程中心（PEER）的14 713条地震动记录,比较了俯冲带地区浅壳上地幔地震、板内地震和板间地震的水平向地震动加速度反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）和位移反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）的差异,并进行了5%置信水平下的假设检验,探究了俯冲带地区不同地震类型对DMF的影响。结果显示:在大多数谱周期,不同地震类型的DMF存在统计意义上的显著差异;在低阻尼比中短周期时,加速度谱DMF和位移谱DMF基本相同;在高阻尼比长周期时,不同地震类型的加速度谱DMF差异大于位移谱DMF差异。研究表明:俯冲带地震水平向地震动DMF需要考虑不同地震类型的影响。  相似文献   

8.
Two methods are discussed for determining changes in ground displacement spectra and the velocity and acceleration spectra derived from these when recorded on solidly frozen bedrock (T < ?3°C) versus epicentral distance and energy class. The first of these methods characterizes the entire epicenter field of earthquakes, while the second aims at studying possible differences between spectra in different source zones. We have found the maximum spectral level as a function of epicentral distance and energy class. The calculated spectra are compared with the available records of large earthquakes. The manner in which near and comparatively small earthquakes can be used to find ground motion spectra is shown for solidly frozen bedrock for earthquakes as large as the 15–17 energy class, as well, determination of the differences between the spectra of seismic signals due to earthquakes occurring in different source zones is performed. The results can be used both directly and for the zonation and prediction of seismic hazard within the zone of solidly frozen rock, and also for the case where the temperature regime of the frozen rock has been changed or disturbed.  相似文献   

9.
In performance-based seismic design, as adopted by several building codes worldwide, the structural performance is verified against ground motions that have predetermined exceedance return periods at the site of interest. Such a return period is evaluated by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the corresponding ground motion is often represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The structural performance for ground motions larger than those considered in this design approach is, typically, not explicitly controlled under the assumption that they are sufficiently rare. On one hand, this does not achieve uniform safety at sites characterized by different design ground motions corresponding to the same return period; on the other hand, exceedances of the design spectra are systematically observed over large areas, for example in Italy. The latter issue is because of the nature of UHS, the exceedance of which is likely-to-almost-certain when the construction site is in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes (ie, the design spectrum may be not conservative at these locations), especially if PSHA is based on seismic source zones. The former is partially because of the systematic difference of ground motions for return periods larger than the design one at the different sites. Quantification of the expected ground motion given the exceedance of the design ground motions (ie, the recently introduced as the expected peak-over-threshold or POT) can be of help in quantitatively assessing these issues. In the study, a procedure to compute the POT distribution is derived first; second, POT spectra are introduced and used to help understanding why and how seismic structural reliability of code-conforming structures decreases as the seismic hazard of the site increases; third, expected and 95th percentile POT maps are shown for Italy to discuss how much high hazard sites are exposed to much larger peak-over-threshold with respect to mid-hazard and low-hazard sites; finally the POT is discussed with respect to the slope of the hazard curve (in log-log scale) at the threshold, a known proxy for ground motion beyond design. All data presented in the maps are made available for the interested reader as a supplemental archive.  相似文献   

10.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA(T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA(T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.  相似文献   

11.
Correlation in spectral accelerations for earthquakes in Europe   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The shape of a uniform hazard spectrum has been criticized to be unrealistic for a site where the spectral ordinates of the uniform hazard spectrum at different periods are governed by different scenario events and conservative for long‐return‐period earthquake shaking. The conditional mean spectrum considering epsilon (CMS‐ε) takes into account the correlation of spectral demands (represented by values of ε) at different periods, to address these issues. This paper proposes new prediction models for the correlation coefficient of ε(T1) and ε(T2), a key component for developing a CMS, using Pan‐European earthquake records from a European ground motion database. Epsilon (ε) for each record is computed using the 2005 Ambraseys ground‐motion prediction equation. The model can be used to develop CMS for European sites, and it can be incorporated in the European seismic standards. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.  相似文献   

13.
Many seismic loss problems (such as disruption of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground‐motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. Quantifying ground‐motion over a spatially‐distributed region therefore requires information on the correlation between the ground‐motion intensities at different sites during a single event. The focus of the present study is to assess the spatial correlation between ground‐motion spectral accelerations at different periods. Ground motions from eight well‐recorded earthquakes were used to study the spatial correlations. On the basis of obtained empirical correlation estimates, we propose a geostatistics‐based method to formulate a predictive model that is suitable for simulation of spectral accelerations at multiple sites and multiple periods, in the case of crustal earthquakes in active seismic regions. While the calibration of this model and investigation of its implications were somewhat complex, the model itself is very simple to use for making correlation predictions. A user only needs to evaluate a simple equation relying on three sets of coefficients provided here to compute a correlation coefficient for spectral values at two periods and at a specified separation distance. These results may then be used in evaluating the seismic risk of portfolios of structures with differing fundamental periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Intensity attenuation for active crustal regions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We develop globally applicable macroseismic intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for earthquakes of moment magnitude M W 5.0?C7.9 and intensities of degree II and greater for distances less than 300?km for active crustal regions. The IPEs are developed for two distance metrics: closest distance to rupture (R rup) and hypocentral distance (R hyp). The key objective for developing the model based on hypocentral distance??in addition to more rigorous and standard measure R rup??is to provide an IPE which can be used in near real-time earthquake response systems for earthquakes anywhere in the world, where information regarding the rupture dimensions of a fault may not be known in the immediate aftermath of the event. We observe that our models, particularly the model for the R rup distance metric, generally have low median residuals with magnitude and distance. In particular, we address whether the direct use of IPEs leads to a reduction in overall uncertainties when compared with methods which use a combination of ground-motion prediction equations and ground motion to intensity conversion equations. Finally, using topographic gradient as a proxy and median model predictions, we derive intensity-based site amplification factors. These factors lead to a small reduction of residuals at shallow gradients at strong shaking levels. However, the overall effect on total median residuals is relatively small. This is in part due to the observation that the median site condition for intensity observations used to develop these IPEs is approximately near the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program CD site-class boundary.  相似文献   

15.
The response of two arch dams to spatially varying ground motions recorded during earthquakes is computed by a recently developed linear analysis procedure, which includes dam–water–foundation rock interaction effects and recognizes the semi‐unbounded extent of the rock and impounded water domains. By comparing the computed and recorded responses, several issues that arise in analysis of arch dams are investigated. It is also demonstrated that spatial variations in ground motion, typically ignored in engineering practice, can have profound influence on the earthquake‐induced stresses in the dam. This influence obviously depends on the degree to which ground motion varies spatially along the dam–rock interface. Thus, for the same dam, this influence could differ from one earthquake to the next, depending on the epicenter location and the focal depth of the earthquake relative to the dam site. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Mexico City high plasticity clays exhibit a small degree of nonlinearity for shear strains as large as 0.1%, which leads to both moderate shear stiffness degradation and small to medium damping increment, even for long duration subduction strong ground motions, such as the 8.1Mw 1985Michoacan earthquake. Nonetheless, current seismic design criteria of strategic infrastructure used worldwide have striven for having larger return periods for establishing the seismic environment, considering recent large magnitude (M>8.5Mw) events. This paper presents the study of the seismic response of typical high plasticity clays found in the so-called Texcoco Lake, in the surrounding of Mexico City valley, for larger to extreme earthquakes. The shear wave velocity profile was characterized using a down-hole test. The seismic environment was established from a set of uniform hazard response spectra developed for a nearby rock outcrop for return periods of 125, 250, 475 and 2475 years. A time-domain spectral matching was used to develop acceleration time histories compatible with each uniform hazard response spectrum. Both frequency and time domain site response analyses were carried out considering each seismic scenario. Ground nonlinearities were clearly observed in the soil response during extreme ground shaken, which increases rapidly with the return period. This fact must be taken into account to avoid costly and potentially unsafe seismic designs.  相似文献   

17.
On the basis of the interpretation of the high-resolution satellite remote sensing images, in combination with the data of engineering geological exploration and shear-wave velocity testing, the site category-zoning map of FJ area with the scale of 1:200,000 is generated according to the site classification standard of “Code for Seismic design of Buildings” of China (GB50011 2010). By the method of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, we obtain bedrock seismic ground motion parameters of five recurrent periods (50, 200, 500, 1000, and 2500 a) of FJ area. By using the 617 typical soil layer structures of the site classifications in FJ area, we build seismic response models of soil layers and make seismic response analysis, then obtain the statistic sample space of site amplification factors, which possess reasonable distribution and sufficient data. Considering the distribution characteristics of The Quaternary Strata in FJ area, according to the statistic zoning (mountains and coastal areas respectively) and site classifications as well as the level of bedrock importing ground motion, the site magnification-factors of ground motion in FJ area are obtained by classification statistics.  相似文献   

18.
Our previous studies show that site effects (amplification of rock motions), source and path effects are coupled when response spectra are used to characterize the amplification ratios for a soil site modelled as nonlinear or elastic. The coupling is referred to as a “side effect” of using response spectral amplification ratios. In the present study we use a suite of rock site records, well distributed with respect to magnitude and source distance, from crustal, subduction interface and slab earthquakes to evaluate the response spectral amplification ratio for soft soil sites. We compare these side-effects for ground motions generated by three types of earthquakes, and we find that, at periods much shorter or much longer than the natural period of a soil site modelled as elastic, the average amplification ratios with respect to rock site ground motions from three types of earthquakes are moderately different and are very similar for other spectral periods. These differences are not statistically significant because of the moderately large scatter of the amplification ratios. However, the extent of magnitude- and source-distance-dependence of amplification ratios differs significantly. After the effects of magnitude and source distance on the amplification ratios are accounted for, the differences in amplification ratios between crustal and subduction earthquake records are very large in some particular combinations of source distance and magnitude range. These findings may have potential impact in establishing design spectra for soft soil sites using strong motion attenuation models or numerical modelling.  相似文献   

19.
This study deals with the application of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a rock site located in Algiers city. For this purpose, recent ground motion prediction equations developed in the world for similar sismotectonic context are used through logic tree in PSHA framework; the obtained results reflect clearly the high seismicity of the considered region. Moreover, deaggregation analysis is conducted to obtain the mean scenario in terms of magnitude and distance. In addition to the scalar-PSHA, a new method named vector-PSHA developed in recent years is performed in this study. Based on the multivariate probability theory, the software used in scalar approach is modified allowing the application of this approach for a real site in Algiers city with a vector of two and three parameters of intensity measure. The results are presented in terms of the joint annual rate of exceeding several thresholds such as PGA, PSA(T) of multiple vibration periods, peak ground velocity and Arias intensity and comparison between results of PSHA and V-PSHA is done.  相似文献   

20.
Displacement spectrum intensity (DSI), defined as the integral of a ground motion's displacement response spectrum from 2.0 to 5.0 s, is proposed as an indicator of the severity of the long period content of a ground motion. It is demonstrated how the distribution of DSI can be predicted using existing ground motion prediction equations for (pseudo) spectral accelerations, which is necessary for it to be a useful intensity measure (IM) in either probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard analysis. Empirical correlation equations between DSI and other common ground motion IMs are developed for active shallow crustal earthquakes using a dataset of ground motions from active shallow crustal earthquakes. The ability of DSI to account for near-source ground motions exhibiting forward directivity, potentially damaging far-source long-period ground motion, and its use with other spectrum intensity parameters to characterise short, medium, and long period severity of ground motions is discussed. The developed ground motion prediction and correlation equations enable DSI to be utilised in rigorous ground motion selection frameworks such as the generalised conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach.  相似文献   

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