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1.
An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in the conterminous United States for the period 1994–2007. Results
include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their unique spatial distributions. An analysis of
historical hazard event data illustrate that, on average, 35 people reportedly die from rip currents each year in the United
States. Also, similar to other hazard events where unique differences in gender vulnerability have been found, men are over
six times more likely to fall victim to a deadly rip current than females. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern
United States, with a nonuniform spatial distribution along other Atlantic, Pacific, and Great Lakes coastlines. Physical
vulnerabilities are suggested as the primary cause for the unique fatality distribution found. Temporally, summer season weekends
are shown to have the more fatalities than any other time of the year. A classification scheme was developed to categorize
synoptic-scale weather conditions present during deadly rip current events. More than 70% of all rip current fatalities are
associated with onshore winds. Specifically, a rip current fatality is most likely when a surface high pressure system creates
these onshore winds. The quality of the fatality reporting database available for researchers is also assessed. 相似文献
2.
3.
Tornado fatalities and mobile homes in the United States 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Fatalities from tornadoes have declined dramatically over the last century in the United States. Despite the overall reduction
in tornado lethality, fatalities from mobile homes remain high. In fact, research suggests that the likelihood of a fatality
in a mobile home is ten times or more than that in a permanent home. This study examines possible explanations of the mobile
home tornado problem, including the potential for concentration of these homes in tornado prone states, the relation to Fujita
Scale rating, and incidence during the day. We find that mobile home fatalities are concentrated in the Southeastern US, significantly
more likely in weaker tornadoes, and occur disproportionately at night. 相似文献
4.
Peter Höller 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(1):81-101
At all times natural hazards like torrents or avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructures in the Austrian
Alps. Since 1950 more than 1,600 persons have been killed by avalanches in Austria, which is on average approximately 30 fatalities
per year. In particular, the winter periods 1950/1951 and 1953/1954 stand out with more than 100 fatalities. Those events
led to an increase of avalanche control programmes in the following decades. While from the 1950s to the 1970s emphasis was
placed on permanent measures (technical structures, afforestations, hazard zoning ...) additional programmes such as avalanche
warning and forecasting have supplemented avalanche control measures in the last decades. Current research is focused on avalanche
simulation, risk management and the influence of the forest on avalanche formation. An important area of future research is
to develop improved methods for avalanche forecasting and to intensify the investigation of the dynamics of avalanches. 相似文献
5.
A database was compiled for the period 1977–2007 to assess the threat to life in the conterminous United States from nontornadic
convective wind events. This study reveals the number of fatalities from these wind storms, their causes, and their unique
spatial distributions. Nontornadic convective wind fatalities occur most frequently outdoors, in vehicles including aircraft,
or while boating. Fatalities are most common in the Great Lakes and Northeast, with fewer fatalities observed in the central
United States despite the climatological peak in severe thunderstorms in this region. Differences in fatality locations between
tornadoes and nontornadic convective wind events highlight the unique combination of physical and social vulnerabilities involved
in these deaths. Understanding these vulnerabilities is important to future reduction of nontornadic convective wind fatalities. 相似文献
6.
Avalanche hazard and risk mapping is of utmost importance in mountain areas in Europe and elsewhere. Advanced methods have been developed to describe several aspects of avalanche hazard assessment, such as the dynamics of snow avalanches or the intensity of snowfall to assume as a reference meteorological forcing. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the identification of potential avalanche release areas. In this paper, we present a probabilistic assessment of potential avalanche release areas in the Italian Autonomous Province of Bolzano, eastern Alps, using the Weights of Evidence and Logistic Regression methods with commonly available GIS datasets. We show that a data-driven statistical model performs better than simple, although widely adopted, screening criteria that were proposed in the past, although the complexity of observed release areas is only partly captured by the model. In the best case, the model enables predicting about 70 % of avalanches in the 20 % of area classified at highest hazard. Based on our results, we suggest that probabilistic identification of potential release areas could provide a useful aid in the screening of sites for subsequent, more detailed hazard assessment. 相似文献
7.
Snow avalanches are a significant hazard in mountainous environments around the world. This paper investigates the major February 1986 avalanche cycle that occurred in the western United States, and broadly analyzes the avalanche, snowpack, and weather conditions at twenty sites. These analyses suggest that the avalanche cycle resulted from the interaction of a relatively `normal' snowpack with an exceptional storm event, which was particularly noteworthy for the amount of precipitation it produced. Composited 500-hPa anomaly maps show the event resulted from an uncommonly persistent blocking pattern that resulted in a strong zonal flow and copious moisture being funneled over the western United States. Understanding severe and widespread avalanche cycles may improve our long-term forecasting of these events, and help mitigate theresulting avalanche activity. 相似文献
8.
The physical risk from snow avalanches poses a serious threat to mountain backcountry travelers. Avalanche risk is primarily managed by (1) assessing avalanche hazard through analysis of the local weather, snowpack, and recent avalanche activity and (2) selecting terrain that limits exposure to the identified hazard. Professional ski guides have a tremendous wealth of knowledge about using terrain to manage avalanche risk, but their expertise is tacit, which makes it difficult for them to explicitly articulate the underlying decision rules. To make this existing expertise more broadly accessible, this study examines whether it is possible to derive quantitative measures for avalanche terrain severity and condition-dependent terrain guidance directly from observed terrain selection of professional guides. We equipped lead guides at Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing with GPS tracking units during the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 winters creating a dataset of 10,592 high-resolution tracked ski runs. We used four characteristics—incline, vegetation, down-slope curvature (convexities/concavities), and cross-slope curvature (gullies/ridges)—to describe the skied terrain and employed a mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model to examine the relationship between the character of most severe avalanche terrain skied on a day and the associated field-validated avalanche hazard ratings. Patterns in the regression parameter estimates reflected the existing understanding of how terrain is selected to manage avalanche risk well: the guides skied steeper, less dense vegetation, and more convoluted slopes during times of lower avalanche hazard. Avalanche terrain severity scores derived from the parameter estimates compared well to terrain previously zoned according to the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale. Using a GIS implementation of the regression analysis, we created avalanche condition-dependent maps that provide insights into what type of terrain guides deemed acceptable for skiing under different avalanche hazard conditions. These promising results highlight the potential of tracking guides’ terrain selection decisions as they manage avalanche hazard for the development of evidence-based avalanche terrain ratings and decision aids for professional and recreational backcountry travelers. 相似文献
9.
Motor vehicles historically have been dangerous locations to shelter in during tornado events. Throughout the twentieth century, motor vehicle design has become safer while tornado forecasting has become better understood. Despite such advances, tornado fatalities in motor vehicles still occur today, and some events periodically result in high numbers of deaths (e.g., ten motor vehicle occupants were killed by a single tornado in Garland, Texas, in 2015). We seek to examine all US tornado-induced motor vehicle fatalities documented between 1991 and 2015. Our findings indicate that motor vehicle fatalities have not significantly changed during this study period. We attribute annual fatality totals to persons lacking awareness of impending dangers coupled with numbers of significant tornado events for a given year. We find most fatalities result when vehicles are lofted or passengers are ejected, and this most typically occurs at the EF3–EF5 intensity thresholds. Fatalities that occur at weaker tornado winds (EF0–EF2) are most often attributed to collapsing debris (mostly trees) on vehicles. Spatially, motor vehicle fatalities are greatest in the Deep South and southern Great Plains regions where overall tornado and nighttime tornado frequencies are greatest. Some of the largest motor vehicle fatality events have resulted from tornadoes not being distinctly visible to motorists; such events have been characterized by tornadoes occurring at night or by tornadoes not appearing as “classic funnels.” 相似文献
10.
Snow avalanche hazards in mountainous areas of developing countries have received scant attention in the scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to describe this hazard and mitigative measures in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan Himalaya, and to review alternatives for future reduction of this hazard. Snow avalanches have long posed a hazard and risk to indigenous populations of the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya mountains. Land use intensification due to population growth, new transportation routes, military activity and tourism is raising levels of risk. The history of land use in the study area is such that investigations of avalanche hazard must rely on different theoretical bases and data than in most industrialised countries. Despite the intensive use of valley-bottom land which is affected by avalanches, a number of simple measures are currently employed by the indigenous population to mitigate the hazard. Out-migration during the winter months is the most important one. During the intensive use period of summer avalanche-transported snow provides numerous resources for the population. In Kaghan the avalanche hazard is increasing primarily as a result of poorly located new buildings and other construction projects. The large scale of avalanche activity there rules out any significant improvement or protection of the currently difficult winter access. Instead, future mitigation of the hazard should focus on protecting the small number of winter inhabitants and minimising property damage. 相似文献
11.
公路崩塌灾害等级划分初步研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
崩塌灾害等级划分是进行灾情预测和制定应急预案的重要依据。不同领域由于研究目的、研究对象及研究方法等方面的差异,进行崩塌灾害等级划分时采用的主要指标及方法也各有不同。本文针对公路的特点,结合公路交通运输的实际情况,选择崩塌规模与交通量作为评估公路崩塌灾害灾情大小的主要参数和灾害等级划分指标。根据崩塌规模和交通量作用于公路的规律,通过理论研究,建立了崩塌灾害评估指标的分级标准。最终建立了公路崩塌灾害灾度计算公式,提出了以灾度大小作为公路崩塌灾害等级划分的标准。 相似文献
12.
Due to its geographical location, geology and topography, Turkey mainly undergoes three different types of natural disasters related to gravity flows. They are floods, landslides and snow avalanches.The heavy snow falls during winter pose the hazard of snow avalanches. According to statistics, 800 people were killed in snow avalanches during the period of 1960–1997. Within the program of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (1990–2000), an international cooperation has been initiated among SFISAR (Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research), CEMAGREF (Centre National du Machinisme Agricole du Génie Rural des Eaux at des Forets) and AFET (Turkish Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, General Directorate of Disaster Affairs). This three-year project started in 1994 as a development project on avalanche forecasting, mapping, zoning and paravalanche construction technologies. For the pilot project area, the Soanli Mountains located in north-eastern Turkey were chosen, covering an area of approximately 40 by 30 km. After training the Turkish engineers, the basic technologies in avalanche forecasting and avalanche mapping were transferred from Switzerland and France to Turkey with the necessary infrastructure. The difficulties faced in meteorological data collection with the help of local observers and the limited data available caused some delay in avalanche forecasting. If automatic weather stations could take the place of manual work, the realization of a prognosis would be quicker. At present, avalanche-hit houses are rebuilt in new disaster-free zones by AFET. With this project, the idea of using paravalanche structures for protection is promoted. The physico-sociological impacts of avalanche disasters, avalanche mapping and zoning of disaster areas on local people are also studied. 相似文献
13.
An avalanche occurrence is a result of the structural collapse of the snow cover in the upper reaches of mountain slopes in the snowbound belt. They take a heavy toll, year after year and property worth millions is destroyed. Besides loss of lives, the avalanches also destroy forest and disrupt road communication, thereby hindering the hill area development and affecting the Defense of the nation.The paper brings out the cause of avalanche formation, magnitude of their destruction power and the techniques being followed in India by Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), a DRDO Laboratory, for mitigating the avalanche disasters in Western Himalayan Region for the Defense forces. The authors suggest that for mitigating the avalanche disasters, an integrated plan at national level involving Defense forces and state governments should be drawn. 相似文献
14.
雪崩是冰冻圈内主要的自然灾害之一,严重威胁高寒山区内的交通廊道、能源输送和通信干线、矿区、牧区、旅游区等安全并造成基础设施毁坏和人畜死伤,阻碍山区社会经济的可持续发展。随着气候变化和人类活动不断向高寒山区扩展,暴露在雪崩危险之下的人口及基础设施日趋增多,雪崩的风险显著增强。为保障山区的社会经济可持续发展,对雪崩灾害防治管理需求不断增加。在梳理我国1960年以来主要雪崩研究进展基础上,结合世界各地雪崩研究成果,总结了雪崩的影响因素和区域规律、雪崩的形成与运动机理、雪崩监测预警、雪崩风险评估和雪崩工程防治等方面的进展和亟须研究的前沿问题以及科学难点。同时本文论述了气候变化对雪崩活动的影响,以及人类活动与雪崩活动之间的相互影响,展望了未来雪崩防灾减灾的需求并提出对策,推动雪崩防灾减灾研究。 相似文献
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16.
Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard in the cryosphere. It seriously threatens transportation corridors, energy transmission and communication lines, mining and touristic areas in the cold mountainous regions and often causes the destruction of infrastructure and human casualties, hindering the sustainable development of society and economy in mountainous areas. Under climate change and the expansion of human activities to alpine mountains, more population and infrastructure will expose to the risk of avalanches. In order to ensure the sustainable development in mountainous areas, the demand for the prevention and management of avalanche disasters is increasing. Based on the review of the main avalanche research progress in China since 1960 and the avalanche research results all over the world, this paper summarized the progress on the influencing factors and regional distribution of avalanche activities, avalanche formation and movement mechanism, avalanche monitoring and early warning, avalanche risk assessment and engineering prevention, as well as the frontier problems and scientific difficulties that need to be studied. In addition, the impact of climate change on avalanche activities and the interaction between human activities and avalanche activities are discussed. By looking forward to the future needs of avalanche disaster prevention and reduction, including the countermeasures, the research on avalanche in China is promoted. © 2022 by the Author(s). 相似文献
17.
Chris Stethem Bruce Jamieson Peter Schaerer David Liverman Daniel Germain Simon Walker 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(2-3):487-515
Snow avalanches affect recreation, transportation, resource industries and property. During the 1990s an average of 12.5 persons per year were killed in avalanches in Canada. The snow avalanche hazard has affected people and facilities in B.C, Alberta, Yukon, NWT, Nunavut, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland. Avalanche risk may be voluntary, for example skiing and snowmobiling, or involuntary, for example public transportation corridors. A worst-case avalanche scenario is most likely to occur in the Western Cordillera, resulting from a single large-scale weather pattern, where a cold period resulting in the development of a weak layer in the snowpack is followed by a series of major mid-winter storms. Emergency preparedness for avalanches is most advanced in western Canada. New education and information initiatives in Quebec and Newfoundland are aimed at improving preparedness there. Current research is focused on avalanche forecasting, weather forecasting for avalanche prediction, avalanche failure characteristics, forestry and avalanches and geomorphology and avalanches. An important area of future research is the impact of climate change on avalanches, particularly in northern Canada. 相似文献
18.
Prior research on tropical storm systems that have made landfall and undergone a period of sustainability or reintensification has been linked to the synoptic environment at the time the storm restrengthened. Tropical Storm (TS) Erin is an interesting case study in that it did not take on hurricane-like structure nor reach hurricane intensity until it moved through west-central Oklahoma on August 19, 2007. This study seeks to examine the possible impact of anomalously wet soils across much of Oklahoma on the reintensification of TS Erin during the early morning hours of August 19, 2007. To determine the degree to which the antecedent soil state impacted TS Erin??s inland evolution and reintensification, analyses of the synoptic environment and the mesoscale environment/boundary layer environment are undertaken using operational and research datasets such as upper air soundings, surface soil moisture and temperature data, and multiple products from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis archive. This observational assessment is complemented with numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecast Model, Advanced Research Version 3.2 (WRF-ARW) to further study the role of soil moisture availability and surface fluxes that may have led to the boundary layer feedback and inland reintensification. Observational analysis and model results indicate that anomalously wet conditions over the central Oklahoma region may have helped develop a regional boundary layer feedback that appears to have contributed to the inland reintensification of TS Erin. Thus, the anomalously wet land surface had a positive role in TS Erin reintensifying over Oklahoma during the early morning hours of August 19, 2007. 相似文献
19.
Debris flows and their toll on human life: a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Debris flows cause significant damage and fatalities throughout the world. This study addresses the overall impacts of debris flows on a global scale from 1950 to 2011. Two hundred and thirteen events with 77,779 fatalities have been recorded from academic publications, newspapers, and personal correspondence. Spatial, temporal, and physical characteristics have been documented and evaluated. In addition, multiple socioeconomic indicators have been reviewed and statistically analyzed to evaluate whether vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by debris flows. This research provides evidence that higher levels of fatalities tend to occur in developing countries, characterized by significant poverty, more corrupt governments, and weaker healthcare systems. The median number of fatalities per recorded deadly debris flow in developing countries is 23, while in advanced countries, this value is only 6 fatalities per flow. The analysis also indicates that the most common trigger for fatal events is extreme precipitation, particularly in the form of large seasonal storms such as cyclones and monsoon storms. Rainfall caused or triggered 143 of the 213 fatal debris flows within the database. However, it is the more uncommon and catastrophic triggers, such as earthquakes and landslide dam bursts, that tend to create debris flows with the highest number of fatalities. These events have a median fatality count >500, while rainfall-induced debris flows have a median fatality rate of only 9 per event. 相似文献
20.
A dry debris avalanche will produce different volumes of colluviums or depositions (loose materials), which can have a significant impact on mountainous rivers or gullies. The loose material supply process caused by a debris avalanche is an important issue for understanding secondary disasters that form via the coupling of water flow and loose materials. Two flumes were designed for laboratory tests of the loose materials supply process to rivers/gullies, and the related impact factors were analyzed. Experimental results show that the supply of loose materials is a continuous process that directly relates to the avalanche’s mass movement processes. The sliding masses with smaller particle sizes are more sensitive to the flume slope and exhibited a longer supply time. The time-consuming for the debris avalanche travel in the flume decreased with the increasing particle size (such as flume B, time-consuming is decreased 0.2 s when the particle size increased from <1.0 to 20–60 mm), landslide volume and flume slope (flume A, consuming 1.6–2.1 s when flume slope is 29° decreased to consuming 1.3–1.5 s when flume slope is 41°), which means the increasing mobility of loose materials. The total supply time increased with the increasing landslide volume or decreasing particle size and flume slope. An empirical model for the process is presented based on numerous laboratory tests and numerical simulations, which can successfully describe the supply process for loose materials to a river/gully. The supply process of loose materials to mountainous gully from a dry debris avalanche is controlled by the material compositions of sliding masses, topographical conditions, landslide volume and bed friction, where large-volume debris avalanches that occur in mountainous river regions are more likely to obstruct the river flow and form a landslide-dammed lake. 相似文献