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1.
Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone adaptation to flooding and drought will become scarcer in the (near) future, and this hampers the pursuit of resilience (i.e. the ability to remain functioning under a range of hazard magnitudes). In such times, key challenges for adaptation are further complicated by weaker investment dynamics and an increased tendency to ‘work in silos’. These are: to minimise regret with respect to maladaptation, which results from over- or under-investment in water hazard management; to exploit the opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to flooding and drought into other investment agendas; and to deliver multiple benefits for society and the economy, such as increased biodiversity, liveability and competitiveness. These common challenges drive the best way in which to adapt to uncertain climate and socio-economic changes. In the Netherlands, the Delta Programme has developed and applied a structured and well-defined approach (called Adaptive Delta Management) for including and acting upon uncertainty around these future changes. This approach allows for greater transparency to decision-makers and stakeholders, because it adheres to four specific steps for strategy development. This paper presents the current understanding of Adaptive Delta Management and an illustration of the approach for the management of flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht. It examines the added value and limitations of Adaptive Delta Management concerning its application in the context of the Delta Programme, with a specific emphasis on the lessons learned from Dordrecht. 相似文献
2.
China’s huge investment on water infrastructure for sustainable water use, followed by recently frequent natural disasters,
caused worldwide concerns, i.e., continuously published by Nature and Science. Most researchers emphasized challenges on this investment; yet, we argue that the 2011-plan, targeting reservoirs, wells,
irrigation systems, inter-basin water transfer projects, is the most effective adaptation to climate change, drought and flooding,
as well as food security. This provides a good case of water management and development, particularly for the current uneven
water resources and food security by climate change. 相似文献
3.
Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience. 相似文献
4.
Despite massive investment in flood control infrastructure (FCI), neither cities nor rivers have been well served—flooding continues to challenge cities around the world, while riverine ecosystems are degraded by FCI. Although new flood hazard management concepts have shifted the focus away from FCI, many cities continue to count on FCI to prevent flood damage. It is assumed that existing built-up areas can only count on FCI, as large-scale retreat is often impossible. However, flood adaptation—retrofitting the built environment to prevent damage during flooding—as an option is often ignored. This paper argues against the continual use of FCI to prevent flood damage by reviewing FCI’s established problems. The paper examines human–river interactions associated with FCI, focusing on the feedback mechanisms in the interactions, with a case study on the Lower Green River (LGR) valley in King County, Washington, USA. An urban ecology research model is employed to organize the case study, where interactions between floodplain urbanization, FCI, flow and sediment changes, flood risk, and riverine ecosystem are explored and two feedback mechanisms—river adjustment and flood risk perception—are explicitly addressed. The resulting complex dynamics, in terms of cross–scale interactions, emergence, nonlinearity, and surprises, are synthesized and limitations of FCI outlined. Flood adaptation is explored as a plausible alternative to flood control to nurture flood resilience. A management scenario of flood adaptation for the City of Kent—the largest municipality in the LGR valley—is developed to discuss the implications of flood adaptation on flood risk and river restoration. 相似文献
5.
Information from 117 questionnaires and focus groups in four villages in the Okavango Delta, Botswana was used to identify households exposed to different levels of risk in order to relate them to various livelihood activities and coping strategies. Current household strategies such as migration and diversification that are used to cope with recurring hazards such as drought, reduced flooding and animal disease are becoming more limited because of fencing policies and changed flooding regimes. In the light of future challenges such as climate change and increased upstream water abstractions, the heavy reliance on government assistance will probably increase especially among female-headed households and high-risk households. Without targeted initiatives based on spatial and social distributions of risk, then the dependency syndrome of Botswana is likely to continue and be exacerbated. 相似文献
6.
This paper reports exploratory research conducted in a flood-impacted rural Australian town to identify the factors which residents perceived as supporting community resilience to disaster. There is a gap in this research area centred in the Australian disaster context. Since Australia is predicted to be highly impacted by the effects of climate change in the form of an increased incidence of flooding, an urgent need exists to examine the factors that confer resilience to disaster-impacted localities to inform suitable disaster mitigation and adaptation policies for the future. Because of the complexity of community resilience and its interrelationship with individual resilience, a multi-method approach was used: a demographic study to assess community stability and functioning before and after the flood disaster, focus group interviews to obtain from community members their views on what supported them and their community resilience and a survey to generalise the interview findings. Our operating hypothesis was that individuals remaining in the town post-flood were likely to be resilient to the flood disaster. The demographic study results pointed to a resilient community after the floods as they reflected stability in population numbers and socio-economic indicators. The interviews and survey showed that individual resilience was promoted by social connectedness and a sense of place, a factor that was also negatively linked to the desire to relocate from the community. The use of structural equation modelling of our results provided verification of prior research findings about the role of sense of place in supporting individuals’ resilience. Results are discussed in the context of future climate change adaptation policy. 相似文献
7.
There is a growing international recognition that flood risk management in optima forma should be a programmed and flexible process of continuously improving management practices by active learning about the outcome of earlier and ongoing interventions and drivers of change. In the Netherlands, such a long-term, adaptive flood risk management strategy is now being implemented. This so-called second Delta Programme aims to identify and exploit opportunities and capitalize on short-term benefits and opportunistic synergies that arise from change and will require adaptive policymaking. It also requires the financial and institutional means to operate in a long-lasting way, which at the very least, means engaging stakeholders, gathering and disseminating results and adaptation of future plans. Transferring the Dutch approach to other countries is a major challenge that calls for fundamental changes in institutional arrangements at various levels and thus requires customized programmes for strategic institutional change. Recent examples of transfer will provide important lessons of how institutional change can successfully occur and will contribute insights for other countries that attempting to reform their flood risk management strategies. Continuous monitoring and evaluation and sharing international experiences will become crucial for the effective delivery and wider uptake of these new strategies around the globe. 相似文献
8.
Transboundary hazard risk reflects how different societies interact with disaster in a shared landscape. In the Gobi desert of northern China and southern Mongolia recurring drought, extreme cold, wind and dust storms are the dominant hazards yet disasters vary significantly in the two countries. Research examined national approaches to environmental engagement and livelihoods in the desert through an assessment of disaster risk in two Gobi communities; farmers in Gansu Province, China, and herders in Dundgov and Omnogov Provinces, Mongolia. Exposure and resilience was evaluated and work examined how risk factors are shaped by policy, economics, culture and social memory. Comparison between two state systems reveals how disaster risk and vulnerability are shaped as much by human action as by the physical climatic event. China stressed government-led disaster management whilst Mongolia emphasised adaptation to hazards. Integrating multiple divisions within a hazard zone is essential to address risk reduction; without this disaster mitigation remains state-specific and lacks applicability to a wider area or global context. 相似文献
9.
Taiwan is located in Western Pacific and receives approximate 2,500?mm rainfall per year. Suffered from inadequate water supply during prolonged and severe droughts, assessing drought risk becomes one of the key tasks of water-resources planning and management in Taiwan. Well-prepared drought mitigation measures require assimilation of physical environment of droughts and human socioeconomic factors. An index-based approach is presented in this study to evaluate drought risk at municipal scale in Taiwan for current status (2008) as well as future scenarios (2021). A multiplicative formula links drought hazard (frequency, duration, and severity of droughts), drought exposure (water use), and drought vulnerability (unreliable water supply) to determine drought risk. This approach quantifies the spatial distribution of drought risk and is able to deal with future changes of water use and water-supply source and to examine their influences on drought risk assessments. The results reveal that the regions that are at great risk in the future are those regions already threaten by drought currently. Changes of future water use and water-supply source would not significantly alter spatial distribution of drought risk and ranking order among regions. These results present a basis for future water-resources planning and economic developments for each municipal region. 相似文献
10.
The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016–2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046–2065), and the long term (2081–2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making. 相似文献
11.
Climate- and weather-related disasters have become increasingly frequent and costly, resulting in substantial government spending on disaster assistance. Yet less is known about the effectiveness of disaster aid in enhancing community resilience to future disaster risks. This study examines multiple post-disaster aid programs implemented by the US federal government to support state and local governments as well as households and private businesses. Specifically, we estimate the risk-mitigating effects of these disaster-related programs by linking program spending with reported economic losses from flooding. Our empirical analysis utilizing panel data at the county level finds that low-interest disaster loans lead to the largest reduction in subsequent flooding damage, and grants targeting public infrastructure restoration and flood control measures also reduce future flooding losses. Results suggest a limited loss-mitigating effect of disaster cash aid given to private individuals. These findings provide important implications for federal disaster policy design and suggest that more efficiency gains could be realized by redistributing funds and streamlining processes across programs and agencies.
相似文献
12.
It is estimated that nearly one-third of India’s population lives on the coast and is dependent on its resources. Shoreline erosion, storm surges and extreme events have resulted in severe loss of human life, damage to ecosystems and to property along the coast of India. Studies carried out in the Cuddalore region of South India reveal that this low-lying coastal zone, which suffered significant erosion during the last century, has been severely affected by the tsunami of 2004, storm floods and cyclones. In response to these impacts, a variety of coastal defense measures and adaptation strategies have been implemented in the region, although with only limited success. In order to inform future coastal planning in this region, the work reported here identifies a composite hazard line, seaward of which coastal flooding events will have a return interval of less than 1 in 100 years. The area landward of the coastal hazard line will be unaffected by 100 years of coastal erosion at present day rates. The study directly supports the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan of the Tamil Nadu State through the identification and assessment of coastal hazards and the overall vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion. The key results from this pilot study will be used directly by the State of Tamil Nadu in the protection of the coastal livelihoods, better conservation measures and sustainable development along the coast. This study is a step toward mapping the hazard line for the entire coast of India that helps protect human lives and property. 相似文献
13.
Megacities are likely to present the greatest future challenges for hazard management. In them increasingly complex societies are continually modifying responses to dynamic sets of external risks. Although most have proven resilient to past disasters, new types of threat are emerging. London — which is both the world's oldest megacity and one of its most resilient — has long experience of the transformation of hazards in time and space. Although not as hazard-prone as some megacities, this one is increasingly exposed to a wide range of interactive hazards. Here trends of flooding, air pollution and terrorism are discussed together with policy responses. London demonstrates that robust action can be successful in reducing high-intensity hazards but it also shows that contemporary management is characterised by top-down technological fixes whose long-term effectiveness is questionable. In general, anticipatory responses have been limited and present-day London has not capitalised on its rich legacy of successful experience in coping with hazard. 相似文献
14.
Hazard analysis is the first step in any disaster management activity. Drought is a serious environmental hazard strongly limiting the agricultural production in the tropical countries like India. A comprehensive drought hazard map is useful for multiple perspectives such as agriculture, environment and hydrology. In this study, daily rainfall data of the Climate Prediction Centre during the south-west monsoon season (June–September) of 12 years, over India was analysed. Based on rainfall and rainy days, six indicators of drought were generated which were then synthesized into a composite index of drought hazard for every 10 × 10 km pixel. The weights for the composite index were generated through variance approach. The index has effectively captured the spatial variations in meteorological drought across India by showing a typical pattern with increasing hazardous area from east to west. The drought hazard map also shows considerable agreement with the climate classification map and the drought proneness map reported by other studies. Thus, the current study presents a simple and novel approach for drought hazard analysis, using the routinely available geospatial rainfall data products. The methodology can be extended to other geographies and disasters too. Use of time series data of longer period would improve the reliability of the composite drought hazard index. 相似文献
15.
This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood
warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated
by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects
of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that
economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely
to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into
account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is
currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk
management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important.
Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a
number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future. 相似文献
16.
Resilience theory has gained considerable prominence with regard to the management of social-ecological systems and more recently climate change adaptation. Yet, how resilience is precisely understood, how its institutionalisation works and how organisations can operationalise principles for achieving resilience often remains vague. Therefore, the paper explores how institutional and organisational theory can enhance the understanding on resilience. Linking organisational institutionalism to resilience theory, the paper analyses in particular how resilience thinking can diffuse and translate into organisational action, and which challenges and barriers may exist. Empirical research on formal urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam is used to explore the important role of distinctive institutional features in a given culture, region or sector for shaping this process. It is argued that such context-specific institutional framework conditions are often underemphasised, thereby, hampering the transferability as well as operationalisation and implementation of resilience propositions. Relevant aspects include epistemological, ontological and normative dimensions. Linking the case study to neoinstitutional theory, recommendations are developed for increasing the intercultural transferability of resilience thinking into organisational practices. 相似文献
17.
Being an agrarian region, the northwest part of Bangladesh frequently experiences recurrent droughts over the last decade. To cope with this insidious disaster, the farmers in this region practice various adaptation measures through their own efforts with institutional support. But these efforts and support are not sufficient for farmers to survive droughts. In this light, this study assesses the adaptive capacity of farmers along with institutions to develop suitable drought adaptation policy in the context of this region. The drought adaptive practices developed in this study are mainly adopted from the unique approach called socioeconomic, institutional and physical. Results reveal that establishment of mango orchard, vegetable gardening and community health care service would be helpful in enhancing drought resilience at community level. Moreover, an important policy message from this study suggests that validation of these practices through government offices, research institutes and other relevant organizations can help to develop an appropriate drought adaptation policy for this region. Similarly, by performing these practices from national to local level, farmers as well as communities in this region will be able to effectively sustain their livelihoods against droughts. 相似文献
18.
Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using
climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought
is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger
region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought.
These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the
Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both
organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover,
these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents
of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective
institutional adaptation. 相似文献
19.
Adaptive governance is the use of novel approaches within policy to support experimentation and learning. Social learning reflects the engagement of interdependent stakeholders within this learning. Much attention has focused on these concepts as a solution for resilience in governing institutions in an uncertain climate; resilience representing the ability of a system to absorb shock and to retain its function and form through reorganisation. However, there are still many questions to how these concepts enable resilience, particularly in vulnerable, developing contexts. A case study from Uganda presents how these concepts promote resilient livelihood outcomes among rural subsistence farmers within a decentralised governing framework. This approach has the potential to highlight the dynamics and characteristics of a governance system which may manage change. The paper draws from the enabling characteristics of adaptive governance, including lower scale dynamics of bonding and bridging ties and strong leadership. Central to these processes were learning platforms promoting knowledge transfer leading to improved self-efficacy, innovation and livelihood skills. However even though aspects of adaptive governance were identified as contributing to resilience in livelihoods, some barriers were identified. Reflexivity and multi-stakeholder collaboration were evident in governing institutions; however, limited self-organisation and vertical communication demonstrated few opportunities for shifts in governance, which was severely challenged by inequity, politicisation and elite capture. The paper concludes by outlining implications for climate adaptation policy through promoting the importance of mainstreaming adaptation alongside existing policy trajectories; highlighting the significance of collaborative spaces for stakeholders and the tackling of inequality and corruption. 相似文献
20.
Many coastal urban areas and many coastal facilities must be protected against pluvial and marine floods, as their location near the sea is necessary. As part of the development of a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Approach (PFHA), several flood phenomena have to be modelled at the same time (or with an offset time) to estimate the contribution of each one. Modelling the combination and the dependence of several flooding sources is a key issue in the context of a PFHA. As coastal zones in France are densely populated, marine flooding represents a natural hazard threatening the coastal populations and facilities in several areas along the shore. Indeed, marine flooding is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. It is mainly generated by storm action that makes sea level rise above the tide. Furthermore, when combined with rainfall, coastal flooding can be more consequent. While there are several approaches to analyse and characterize marine flooding hazard with either extreme sea levels or intense rainfall, only few studies combine these two phenomena in a PFHA framework. Thus this study aims to develop a method for the analysis of a combined action of rainfall and sea level. This analysis is performed on the city of Le Havre, a French urban city on the English Channel coast, as a case study. In this work, we have used deterministic materials for rainfall and sea level modelling and proposed a new approach for estimating the probabilities of flooding. 相似文献
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