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1.
陇东南地区短历时降水特征及其分布规律 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文使用1971-2000年的自动站逐日降水资料和2009-2010年的区域站逐时降水资料,研究了陇东南地区短历时降水的特征及其分布。研究发现4-9月是一年降水的主要时段,占到了80%以上,空间分布上从西北向东南迅速增大,离高原近的地区高低值中心较多,可能是因为高原季风和高原地形的影响更大;随持续时间的增加,峰值呈现出了反位相分布,并且振幅逐渐减弱;短历时降水无论是频数还是对降水的贡献都占了很大比例,有40.3%的降水事件属于短历时降水,甚至有部分测站短历时降水的贡献超过了90%,表明短历时降水是研究地区的一种重要降水形式;在短历时降水量构成中有19.4%的降水由短历时强降水产生,表明短历时强降水是短历时降水的重要组成部分;短历时强降水傍晚达到最大,此外还有一个次峰值是在午夜时分;用新定义的概念计算了研究地区的集中期和集中度分布,发现集中度普遍较大,基本在0.6以上,主要集中在7-8月,进一步印证了“七下八上”的主汛期。 相似文献
2.
A seismic re fraction/wide-angle reflection profile is analysed for the presence of correlated events ('phases'). The correlation problem is formulated in terms of temporally, spatially and frequency-local complex covariances. For robustness, the method concentrates on phase rather than amplitude information. This allows a computationally efficient algorithm that can make allowance for signal correlation length and can model curved wavefronts. A statistical test based on residual phase misfit across the analysed subarray is used to assess the probability that a detected event represents a real correlated signal.
With our chosen analysis parameters and confidence level (over 99.9 per cent). 1222 events were detected in the data. Using simple techniques based on 1-D earth models, detected events are associated with a small number of particular wave types. In this way, we have succeeded in classifying almost 95 per cent of the detected events. Those that remain describe those components of the data that are inconsistent with our simple ray paths in the 1-D assumption and with our prescribed tolerance. These include reverberations, near-surface guided waves and reflected waves from strongly laterally inhomogeneous structures. According to our modelling, about 25 per cent of the detected events are consistent with simple P -wave reflected energy, and these are to a very large extent (over 85 per cent) distinct from all the other wave-type models we have used. A direct mapping of the detected events into the offset-depth domain reveals dear internal and external consistencies among the detections for the various wave types. Estimated earth structure is consistent with models from previous analyses based on much larger data sets.
We have thus succeeded in extracting correlated events from the data and decomposing these, approximately but meaningfully, into distinct classes (ray paths) 相似文献
With our chosen analysis parameters and confidence level (over 99.9 per cent). 1222 events were detected in the data. Using simple techniques based on 1-D earth models, detected events are associated with a small number of particular wave types. In this way, we have succeeded in classifying almost 95 per cent of the detected events. Those that remain describe those components of the data that are inconsistent with our simple ray paths in the 1-D assumption and with our prescribed tolerance. These include reverberations, near-surface guided waves and reflected waves from strongly laterally inhomogeneous structures. According to our modelling, about 25 per cent of the detected events are consistent with simple P -wave reflected energy, and these are to a very large extent (over 85 per cent) distinct from all the other wave-type models we have used. A direct mapping of the detected events into the offset-depth domain reveals dear internal and external consistencies among the detections for the various wave types. Estimated earth structure is consistent with models from previous analyses based on much larger data sets.
We have thus succeeded in extracting correlated events from the data and decomposing these, approximately but meaningfully, into distinct classes (ray paths) 相似文献
3.
Summary. A lower mantle S-wave triplication detected with short- and long-period WWSSN and CSN recordings indicates a substantial shear velocity discontinuity near 280 km above the core–mantle boundary. The triplication can be observed in rotated SH seismograms from intermediate and deep focus events throughout the distance range from 70° to 95°. Three distinct source region–receiver array combinations that have been investigated in detail demonstrate consistent travel time and relative amplitude behaviour of the triplication, with slight systematic shifts in the triplication indicating up to 40 km variations in the depth of the discontinuity. Modelling of the observations with synthetic seismograms produced with the Cagniard de Hoop and reflectivity methods constrains the shear velocity increase to be 235 ± 0.25 per cent, comparable to upper mantle discontinuities. Short-period observations indicate that the velocity increase may be a sharp first-order discontinuity, or may extend over a transition zone no more than 50 km thick. The shear velocity gradient below the discontinuity, within the D" layer, is not well-constrained by the SH data, but slightly positive or near zero velocity gradients are consistent with the long-period amplitude ratios of ScSH/SH . 相似文献
4.
François Bache Speranta‐Maria Popescu Marina Rabineau Christian Gorini Jean‐Pierre Suc Georges Clauzon Jean‐Louis Olivet Jean‐Loup Rubino Mihaela Carmen Melinte‐Dobrinescu Ferran Estrada Laurent Londeix Rolando Armijo Bertrand Meyer Laurent Jolivet Gwénaël Jouannic Estelle Leroux Daniel Aslanian Antonio Tadeu Dos Reis Ludovic Mocochain Nikola Dumurdžanov Ivan Zagorchev Vesna Lesić Dragana Tomić M. Namık Çağatay Jean‐Pierre Brun Dimitrios Sokoutis Istvan Csato Gülsen Ucarkus Ziyadin Çakır 《Basin Research》2012,24(2):125-153
The Messinian Salinity Crisis is well known to have resulted from a significant drop of the Mediterranean sea level. Considering both onshore and offshore observations, the subsequent reflooding is generally thought to have been very sudden. We present here offshore seismic evidence from the Gulf of Lions and re‐visited onshore data from Italy and Turkey that lead to a new concept of a two‐step reflooding of the Mediterranean Basin after the Messinian Salinity Crisis. The refilling was first moderate and relatively slow accompanied by transgressive ravinement, and later on very rapid, preserving the subaerial Messinian Erosional Surface. The amplitude of these two successive rises of sea level has been estimated at ≤500 m for the first rise and 600–900 m for the second rise. Evaporites from the central Mediterranean basins appear to have been deposited principally at the beginning of the first step of reflooding. After the second step, which preceeded the Zanclean Global Stratotype Section and Point, successive connections with the Paratethyan Dacic Basin, then the Adriatic foredeep, and finally the Euxinian Basin occurred, as a consequence of the continued global rise in sea level. A complex morphology with sills and sub‐basins led to diachronous events such as the so‐called ‘Lago Mare’.This study helps to distinguish events that were synchronous over the entire Mediterranean realm, such as the two‐step reflooding, from those that were more local and diachronous. In addition, the shoreline that marks the transition between these two steps of reflooding in the Provence Basin provides a remarkable palaeogeographical marker for subsidence studies. 相似文献
5.
Summary. The far-field displacement amplitude spectra of 14 earthquakes from Iran, Fiji Islands, Tonga—Kermadec Islands, and South America were obtained using the long-period P and 5-wave records of the WWSSN stations. Despite recent improvements in theories of the seismic-source mechanism there is continuing doubt concerning the interpretation of the observed seismic spectrum. Although the dislocation model has been adopted by many investigators, and in particular Brune's model is widely used, there has often not been satisfactory evidence in the observed spectral data to justify this. Generally speaking, however, the spectral structures obtained in the present work have a form closely similar to those calculated by Brune and Savage, and it is shown that anomalies in the observed amplitude spectral structure are most likely due to noise and propagation effects. 相似文献
6.
利用1999—2011年EISCAT(EISCAT Tromsø UHF)和ESR(EISCAT Svalbard Radar)雷达的场向电子密度观测数据, 对比分析了两处雷达观测到的极区E层占优电离层ELDI (E-Layer Dominated Ionosphere)事件在太阳活动高、低年的统计特征。地面雷达观测表明, 太阳活动水平对极区ELDI发生率的空间分布影响显著: 在太阳活动高年, ELDI在EISCAT雷达处(极光椭圆区纬度)的发生率高于ESR雷达处(极尖/极隙区纬度); 在低年则恰好相反。夏季似乎不利于ELDI的发生, 且在该季节的变化特征不受太阳活动水平及空间位置变化的影响。两部雷达在太阳活动高年观测到ELDI的季节变化规律分别与低年期间的结果相一致: 在冬季和早春, ELDI的发生率较高, 其他季节发生率较低, 夏季尤其低。在ELDI事件期间, 两处雷达观测到事件的持续时间和电离层E层厚度随太阳活动水平的变化表现出明显差异: 高年事件的持续时间总体上比低年短, 低年观测到ELDI的厚度要小于高年结果; 然而NmE/NmF2比值及HmE却没有表现出明显依赖。 相似文献
7.
Estimating explosion yield by analytical waveform comparison 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Thorne Lay 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,82(1):1-30
Summary. The yields of 28 underground nuclear explosions at NTS (25 on Pahute Mesa) are estimated by applying a relative waveform analysis called intercorrelation to 1256 teleseismic short-period P -waves recorded at 74 WWSSN and CSN stations. Corrections for the effects of pP interference and yield-scaling of the explosion source functions are determined and applied to the waveforms, enabling analytical comparison of signals from events with different yields and burial depths. The procedure accounts for common receiver and propagation effects. Relative explosion source strengths in the 0.5–2.0 Hz frequency band are determined, with results of near-field modelling of strong ground motions establishing the absolute source spectral levels. Four events with detailed near-field models are used as master events in the intercorrelation process, and it is demonstrated that the relative source strengths are better resolved than the absolute values. Events with announced yields are used to determine empirical relations between yield and source strength, which in turn predict the yields of the other events. These yield estimates are shown to be comparable with those obtained by standard m b and relative amplitude analysis. The analytical waveform comparisons also provide estimates of the pP parameters for each event, and criteria for identifying anomalous events, such as PIPKIN and MUENSTER, for which the waveforms differ from those of other events in the test site. Possible mechanisms affecting the anomalous events are considered. Pahute Mesa is shown to be a distinct subsite within NTS, with different teleseismic amplitude and waveform variations than observed at other subsites. 相似文献
8.
We have collected and re-examined macroseismic information for large Central American earthquakes since the beginning of the period of instrumental recording about one hundred years ago, and combined this with a reassessment of early instrumental information to produce a catalogue of 51 events that, we believe includes ail those with magnitudes ( Ms ) greater than 7.0. We have reassessed surface-wave magnitudes by consulting station bulletins and we have derived a correction that gives an equivalent Ms for events of intermediate depth. We have also developed a regional relationship between Ms and seismic moment, which enables us to estimate the seismic slip rate across the Middle American Trench. Our best estimates give an average slip rate several times smaller than suggested convergence rates, but with the seismic slip in the central segment of the trench almost an order of magnitude smaller than that in the segments on either side. The low seismic slip rate may indicate aseismic crustal deformation 相似文献
9.
Evidence for different scaling of earthquake source parameters for large earthquakes depending on faulting mechanism 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Scaling relationships between seismic moment, rupture length, and rupture width have been examined. For this purpose, the data from several previous studies have been merged into a database containing more than 550 events. For large earthquakes, a dependence of scaling on faulting mechanism has been found. Whereas small and large dip-slip earthquakes scale in the same way, the self-similarity of earthquakes breaks down for large strike-slip events. Furthermore, no significant differences in scaling could be found between normal and reverse earthquakes and between earthquakes from different regions. Since the thickness of the seismogenic layer limits fault widths, most strike-slip earthquakes are limited to rupture widths of between 15 and 30 km while the rupture length is not limited. The aspect ratio of dip-slip earthquakes is similar for all earthquake sizes. Hence, the limitation in rupture width seems to control the maximum possible rupture length for these events. The different behaviour of strike-slip and dip-slip earthquakes can be explained by rupture dynamics and geological fault growth. If faults are segmented, with the thickness of the seismogenic layer controlling the length of each segment, strike-slip earthquakes might rupture connected segments more easily than dip-slip events, and thus could produce longer ruptures than dip-slip events of the same width 相似文献
10.
N. N. Ambraseys 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,165(2):516-526
In this article, through the comparison of knowledge relating to historical earthquakes with the understanding of present-day earthquake mechanics and overall GPS slip rates in the eastern Mediterranean region, it has been possible to obtain an idea of how frequently large earthquakes may be expected in some parts of the region. It has also been possible to make an assessment from these early events of slip rates over a long period of time for the Gulf of Corinth in Greece, the Marmara Sea in Turkey and the Dead Sea Fault System, as well as deriving long-term magnitude–frequency relations for these same regions.
It has been demonstrated that slip rates calculated from historical data are in general comparable to those calculated from GPS measurements and field observations, while the size of historical earthquakes and their uncertainty can be quantified. This permits a more reliable estimation of the long-term hazard, the calculation of which is the concern of the engineering seismologist. It has also been shown that in most cases large earthquakes are less frequent when they are estimated from long-term data sets rather than from the instrumental period making the notion of recurrence time and of hazard assessment, questionable.
This study focuses on some of the few areas in the world for which long-term macroseism information exists and which facilitate this kind of analysis. 相似文献
It has been demonstrated that slip rates calculated from historical data are in general comparable to those calculated from GPS measurements and field observations, while the size of historical earthquakes and their uncertainty can be quantified. This permits a more reliable estimation of the long-term hazard, the calculation of which is the concern of the engineering seismologist. It has also been shown that in most cases large earthquakes are less frequent when they are estimated from long-term data sets rather than from the instrumental period making the notion of recurrence time and of hazard assessment, questionable.
This study focuses on some of the few areas in the world for which long-term macroseism information exists and which facilitate this kind of analysis. 相似文献
11.
西北东部极端降水事件及异常旱涝季节变化倾向 总被引：16，自引：10，他引：6
利用西北地区东部100个气象观测站1960\_2000年逐日降水资料,对降水、极端降水事件及异常旱涝区域面积的季节变化倾向进行了分析。结果表明:春、秋、冬季,虽然极端降水事件频次的变率小于降水距平百分率的变率,但两者的变化趋势一致,春、秋季呈上升趋势,冬季呈下降趋势,表明极端降水事件出现的多与少,基本决定了季节降水趋势的变化;夏季,暴雨出现的多与少不能完全决定夏季降水量的趋势,而大雨频次的变化趋势与降水距平百分率的变化趋势一致,略呈上升趋势。夏季降水异常偏少的区域面积呈减少趋势,表明干旱发生的区域面积缩小了;秋季降水异常偏少的区域面积从20世纪80年代中期开始明显的扩大,表明干旱发生的区域面积增大了;春、冬季,降水异常偏多、偏少的区域面积是对称变化的,即降水异常偏多的区域面积增多,则异常偏少的区域面积减少;反之亦然。 相似文献
12.
The potential use of 40 Ar/39 Ar thermochronologic data from K-feldspars in reconstructing basin thermal history has been evaluated using the example of the Warburton/Cooper/Eromanga Basin, Australia's largest onshore oil- and gas-producing basin. Results from 40 Ar/39 Ar step-heating experiments reveal details of the evolution of the basin system, including the following: (1) the operation of high geothermal gradient regimes during the earliest basin evolution, suggesting that basin formation was active rather than passive; (2) slow cooling from a Permo-Triassic temperature peak of at least 250–300°C; (3) a rise in thermal gradients to contemporary bottom hole temperatures in the last 5–10 Myr; and (4) spatially variable recrystallization events between 100 and 50 Ma and at around 20 Ma. Initial microstructural observations serve as a useful predictor of the quality and nature of the obtainable age information. Data from 'pristine' K-feldspars may constrain the peak temperature conditions experienced in the basin, the basin's early thermal history and also any recent changes in thermal gradient. Contrasting data from texturally modified K-feldspars may constrain times of thermal transients and/or fluid flow, with the preferred interpretation that K-feldspars recrystallize in response to such events. The Warburton/Cooper/Eromanga Basin example suggests that the 40 Ar/39 Ar technique may serve as a useful adjunct to apatite and zircon fission track analysis and conventional organic maturation indices in basin thermal history analysis. 相似文献
13.
An important question in seismic hazard assessments is the frequency-size and recurrence interval statistics at a point on a fault. Does a point on a fault obey the same statistics as earthquakes in a region do? This is a difficult question to answer because the number of repetitive earthquakes on a particular fault that have been observed is small. In order to overcome this difficulty we consider slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California. Sequences of up to 100 events are obtained from creepmeter records. We compare the statistical distribution of recurrence times with the Brownian passage-time, lognormal, and Weibull distributions and using goodness-of-fit tests find that the Weibull is the preferred distribution. We also consider the frequency–amplitude distribution of slip events. We find that the data clearly do not obey a Gutenberg–Richter distribution. Instead there is a uniform distribution of event sizes for a large fraction of events. 相似文献
14.
桃花迟早年型的冬季气候特点及花期预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对广西桂林市桃花迟早年型冬季气候特点的分析表明,桃花偏早年型具有冬季降雨量偏多,12月中下旬气温偏低,1月下旬至2月下旬气温偏高等主要特征.用模糊数学方法对桃花迟早年型进行预测,可为花卉开花期应用和旅游业提供气象服务. 相似文献
15.
Bimal Kanti Paul 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):401-414
Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. Despite early cyclone warnings and emergency evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines Sidr victims’ responses to cyclone warnings and evacuation orders, and explores the factors that would explain why the victims did or did not comply with the orders. Based on survey data collected from 277 Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that more than 75 percent of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Sidr's landfall. Despite the efforts of the Bangladesh government, there were lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures. Field data also reveal several reasons cited by respondents for not complying with evacuation orders. Multivariate analyses of survey data show that trust in warning messages was the most important determinant in the decision to seek refuge in safer shelters, followed by distance to nearest shelter and annual level of education. Several recommendations have been made to improve cyclone warnings and the use of public shelters for similar future events. 相似文献
16.
基于北方地区 404 个气象站 1960—2017 年逐日最高气温、最低气温资料，应用线性倾向估 计法、Mann-Kendall 法、滑动 t 检验法、累积距平法和相关分析法，分析了极端气温的时空变化特 征，并探讨了气温指数的影响因素。研究表明：极端气温暖指数和极值指数呈上升趋势，冷指数和 气温日较差呈下降趋势；变化幅度中冷指数大于暖指数，夜指数大于昼指数，西北地区极端气温指 数变化幅度最大，东北地区最小。突变时间上，极端气温指数突变主要发生在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代，暖指数和极高值指数晚于冷指数和极低值指数，东北地区极端气温指数突变时间最早，西北 地区最晚，突变后极端暖事件和气温极值事件进入多发阶段，极端冷事件进入少发阶段。1988— 2012 年极端气温指数的变化响应了全球变暖停滞现象。多数极端气温指数与经纬度、海拔高度显 著相关。北极涛动（AO）指数对极端气温的影响最强，对冷指数影响最明显。气溶胶光学厚度与多 数冷指数呈负相关，而与多数暖指数呈正相关。 相似文献
17.
《自然地理学》2013,34(3):196-211
It has been suggested by some that warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have become stronger and more frequent as a result of global warming. This study aims to investigate whether there is any evidence for changes in the behavior of the ENSO phenomenon that may be attributed to global warming. Cluster analysis is carried out to group warm and cold events by various characteristics using the U.K. Climatic Research Unit air-temperature anomaly data set for the period 1856-1999. Analysis of the resulting groups of events and their relation to global temperature changes gives rise to various conclusions. First, the cold (La Niña) phase of the ENSO phenomenon has been more stable in the period of study than the warm (El Niño) one. Second, average strength warm events seem to be more frequent immediately preceding and during periods of steep global temperature rise, supporting the idea (Hunt, 1999) that more frequent El Niños are a short-term response in ocean-atmosphere coupling to rising global temperature. 相似文献
18.
Summary. A modification of the Aid et al . technique for three-dimensional lithospheric modelling is used to find smoothly varying models for the P -wave velocity structure beneath NORSAR. The method includes ray tracing and calculation of geometrical spreading in the anomalies. The results of linear inversion of the travel-time data compare well with those of previous investigators. The assumption of linearity, which removes the need to ray trace through the anomalies, is tested with iterative solutions for both synthetic and real data. A model with an rms velocity perturbation of 3 per cent, extending to 120 km depth, is found to be reasonably linear. In fact the procedure leads to two models which satisfy the same amount of the real data but which differ by far more than the standard errors. However, these differences are not significant once the imperfect resolution is accounted for by using the total estimation error of the stochastic inverse.
The depth of major anomalies appears to be greater than the array diameter and is therefore not well constrained. Comparing the geometrical spreading produced by these models with the amplitude variations observed at the array indicates that structure deeper than 120 km but shallower than 200 km makes an important contribution to the observations. None of the models used can produce variations as large as those in the amplitude data. For deep, essentially two-dimensional, anomalies the fit to these data is much better for sources to the NE of the array than for sources in other quadrants. 相似文献
The depth of major anomalies appears to be greater than the array diameter and is therefore not well constrained. Comparing the geometrical spreading produced by these models with the amplitude variations observed at the array indicates that structure deeper than 120 km but shallower than 200 km makes an important contribution to the observations. None of the models used can produce variations as large as those in the amplitude data. For deep, essentially two-dimensional, anomalies the fit to these data is much better for sources to the NE of the array than for sources in other quadrants. 相似文献
19.
本文对东南极拉斯曼丘陵出露的石榴斜长角闪岩中的角闪石进行了４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定,分别得到角闪石视年龄１５８６Ｍａ、１０１１～１０８０Ｍａ、７６１Ｍａ和５２９～５８２Ｍａ,角闪石坪年龄１０３６Ｍａ和５５４Ｍａ,角闪石Ａｒ－Ａｒ等时线年龄１０１０Ｍａ,这些同位素年龄证据,首次完整地记录了该区所经历的几乎所有构造变质热事件,为近几年国内外地质学家关于该区构造变质热事件争论的焦点问题,即晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件（Ｇｒｅｎｖｉｌｉａｎ）与早古生代的５００Ｍａ泛非事件（Ｐａｎ－Ａｆｒｉｃａｎ）孰轻孰重以及前者是否存在,提供了答案。角闪石的４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定结果表明,拉斯曼丘陵地区经历了复杂的多期变质演化历史,其原岩可能形成于早－中元古代,占主导地位的应该是晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件,而５００Ｍａ泛非事件则是晚期较强烈的变质热事件。 相似文献
20.
Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northern China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3%/10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the frequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of -15%/10a. 相似文献