首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 406 毫秒
1.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations.  相似文献   

2.
The influence of soil moisture on evaporation from a 6-m grass-covered lysimeter and from Class A pans was assessed for one summer using the -parameter of the Priestley-Taylor evaporation model appropriate for the individual surfaces computed on a daily basis. Net radiation over the pan was estimated from above-grass measurements using a correlation established between the two, using measurements made in the previous two summers. Changes in heat storage of the water were considered in the derivation of for the pan. A unique relationship for the particular conditions of the site was determined between the for the lysimeter and soil moisture, approaching 1.29 at soil moisture near field capacity, but decreasing to as low as 0.5 for dry soil. The corresponding relationship for the pan showed more scatter, but this was improved by using 5-day running means of evaporation and stratifying the data in terms of wind speed to yield a family of curves. Values for at wet soil conditions varied from 1.07 for 100 km day–1 wind run to 1.17 for 250 km day–1 wind run. For each curve, values of increased by about 20%; as the soil dried. The relationships may be used to reduce observed Class A pan evaporation to equivalent values for wet-soil conditions and to estimate near-surface soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration for this particular site. Extension of the technique to other areas requires derivation of similar relationships appropriate for those other locations  相似文献   

3.
Summary The performance of evaporation schemes with and approach and their combination within resistance representation of evaporation from bare soil surface is discussed. For this purpose nine schemes, based on different functions of or , on the ratio of the volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value are used.The quality of the chosen schemes has been evaluated using the results of time integration by the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model, BARESOIL, using in situ data. A sensitivity analysis was made using two sets of data derived from the volumetric soil moisture content of the top soil layer. One with values below the wilting point (0.17 m3m–3) and the second with values above 0.20m3m–3. Data sets were obtained at the experimental site Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia, from the bare surface of a chernozem soil.With 4 Figures  相似文献   

4.
Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable listening posts for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.  相似文献   

5.
A Model to Calculate what a Remote Sensor ‘Sees’ of an Urban Surface   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Whilst the measurement of radiation emissions from a surface is relatively straightforward, correct interpretation and proper utilization of the information requires that the surface area seen be known accurately. This becomes non-trivial when the target is an urban surface, due to its complex three-dimensional form and the different thermal, radiative and moisture properties of its myriad surface facets. The geometric structure creates shade patterns in combination with the solar beam and obscures portions of the surface from the sensor, depending on where it is pointing and its field-of-view (FOV). A model to calculate these surface-sensor-sun relations (SUM) is described. SUM is tested against field and scale model observations, and theoretical calculations, and found to perform well. It can predict the surface area seen by a sensor of known FOV pointing in any direction when placed at any point in space above a specified urban surface structure. Moreover, SUM can predict the view factors of the roof, wall and ground facets seen and whether they are sunlit or shaded at any location and time of day. SUM can be used to determine the optimal placement and orientation of remote sensors to study urban radiation emissions; if the facet temperatures are known or modelled it can calculate the average temperature of the system, and it can determine the directional variation of temperature (anisotropy) due to any particular surface-sensor-sun geometric combination. The present surface geometry used in SUM is relatively simple, but there is scope to make it increasingly realistic.  相似文献   

6.
It is shown that the ratio of standard deviation of lateral velocity to the friction velocity, /u *, and therefore wind direction fluctuations, are sensitive to mesoscale terrain properties. Under neutral conditions, /u * is almost 40% larger in rolling terrain than over a horizontal surface. In the lee of a low mountain, the fluctuations may be 2.5 times as strong as over horizontal terrain. In contrast, vertical velocity fluctuations are little influenced by mesoscale terrain features.Now with Air Weather Service, Offutt AFB, Omaha, Nebraska.  相似文献   

7.
Six locations across mainland Portugal were selected for exposing Parmelia sulcata, for a one-year period (8 months for one site), with simultaneous measurement of total (dry + wet) deposition (one-month periods). The exposed lichens and the total (dry + wet) deposition were analysed for cobalt contents by INAA (instrumental neutron activation analysis) and ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy), respectively. The designated wet deposition was evaluated through the collected water volume; the designated dry deposition was assessed after the (dried) residual mass of the wet deposition. An excellent agreement between Co contents in exposed lichens and the cumulative (1) Co contents in the dry deposition, (2) dry deposition, and (3) wet deposition has been found for the locations with alternate drought and precipitation months, high dry deposition, and high Co contents in the latter. Continuous rainfall was found to hinder the Co accumulation in the lichen due to its release from the lichen and/or lower Co contents in the dry deposition. At three locations, P. sulcata Co contents, after subtraction of the background (before exposure), equalled or exceeded the Co contents in the cumulative dry deposition at the end of the exposure time. The optimal exposure period for this species likely depends on the exposure conditions.  相似文献   

8.
We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.  相似文献   

9.
The spatial variability of turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) of a uniform even-aged 14 m (= h) tall loblolly pine forest was investigated experimentally. Using seven existing walkup towers at this stand, high frequency velocity, temperature, water vapour and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 15.5 m above the ground surface from October 6 to 10 in 1997. These seven towers were separated by at least 100m from each other. The objective of this study was to examine whether single tower turbulence statistics measurements represent the flow properties of RSL turbulence above a uniform even-aged managed loblolly pine forest as a best-case scenario for natural forested ecosystems. From the intensive space-time series measurements, it was demonstrated that standard deviations of longitudinal and vertical velocities (u, w) and temperature (T) are more planar homogeneous than their vertical flux of momentum (u* 2) and sensible heat (H) counterparts. Also, the measured H is more horizontally homogeneous when compared to fluxes of other scalar entities such as CO2 and water vapour. While the spatial variability in fluxes was significant (>15 %), this unique data set confirmed that single tower measurements represent the canonical structure of single-point RSL turbulence statistics, especially flux-variance relationships. Implications to extending the moving-equilibrium hypothesis for RSL flows are discussed. The spatial variability in all RSL flow variables was not constant in time and varied strongly with spatially averaged friction velocity u*, especially when u* was small. It is shown that flow properties derived from two-point temporal statistics such as correlation functions are more sensitive to local variability in leaf area density when compared to single point flow statistics. Specifically, that the local relationship between the reciprocal of the vertical velocity integral time scale (Iw) and the arrival frequency of organized structures (/h) predicted from a mixing-layer theory exhibited dependence on the local leaf area index. The broader implications of these findings to the measurement and modelling of RSL flows are also discussed.  相似文献   

10.
Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.  相似文献   

11.
Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.  相似文献   

12.
Energy partitioning and evaporation were measured over three wetland surfaces in a subarctic coastal marsh during pre-growing and growing periods. These surfaces included an alder/willow woodland, a sedge marsh and a raised backshore sedge meadow. A combination model analysis was used to assess the relative importance of surface resistance and meteorological conditions on the magnitude of the Bowen ratio, , during the growing period.Overall, the three surfaces experienced important site-to-site and seasonal differences in and evaporation, Q E. During the non-foliated period, Q E was largest and was smallest for the open water marsh, while the dry backshore site experienced the smallest Q E and largest . The non-foliated woodland assumed intermediate values of and Q E. After the vegetation covers were established, the woodland assumed the smallest and largest Q E flux. It was also found that at the marsh site increased with the presence of a vegetation cover.Wind direction was always an important factor in determining Q E and at all sites. was substantially larger and Q E was smaller for onshore winds (i.e., originating from James Bay) than for offshore winds. The combination model analysis showed that canopy resistance at all sites was largest during warm offshore winds, which were associated with large saturation deficits. However, the effect of increased canopy resistance on during offshore winds was offset by a large climatological resistance, resulting in small values and large Q E. When winds originated from James Bay, canopy resistance was smaller than for offshore winds, but the climatological resistance also was much smaller, resulting in larger and small Q E. The results have important implications for changes in land cover and climate on the regional water balance.  相似文献   

13.
Among other foci, recent research on adaptation to climatic variability and change has sought to evaluate the merit of adaptation generally, as well as the suitability of particular adaptations. Additionally, there is a need to better understand the likely uptake of adaptations. For example, diversification is one adaptation that has been identified as a potential farm-level response to climatic variability and change, but its adoption by farmers for this reason is not well understood. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to document the adoption of crop diversification in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period 1994–2002, reflect upon its strengths and limitations for managing a variety of risks, including climatic ones, and gauge its likely adoption by producers in response to anticipated climate change. The second purpose is to draw on this case to refine our current understanding of climate change adaptation more generally. Based upon data from over 15 000 operations, it was determined that individual farms have become more specialized in their cropping patterns since 1994, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future, notwithstanding anticipated climate change and the known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. More broadly, the analysis suggests that suitable and even possible climate change adaptations need to be more rigorously assessed in order to understand their wider strengths and limitations.  相似文献   

14.
The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O2 of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O2 versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(Hdecomposition–HO 2 reaction), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(HO 2 reaction)], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O2 at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(HO 2 reaction)], the O2 reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.  相似文献   

15.
Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO2 concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.  相似文献   

16.
A two dimensional model has been set up to investigate the circulation induced by an urban heat island in the absence of synoptic winds. The boundary conditions need to be formulated carefully and due to difficulties arising here, we restrict our attention to cases of initially stable thermal stratification. Heat island circulations are allowed to develop from rest and prior to the appearance of the final symmetric double cell pattern, a transitional multi-cell pattern is observed in some cases. The influence on the steady state circulation of various parameters is studied, among which are eddy transfer coefficients, the heat island intensity, the initial temperature stratification and the heat island size. Some results are presented for a case in which differential surface cooling beneath an initially stable atmosphere produces a circulation and an unstable layer capped by an elevated inversion over the city. It is hoped that this case is vaguely representative of the night-time heat island with no geostrophic wind.Notation cp Specific heat at constant pressure - g Acceleration due to gravity - H Top of integration region - Kz Vertical eddy transfer coefficient - Kx, KxH, Kxm Horizontal eddy transfer coefficients for heat and momentum - l ixing length - p Pressure - p0 Reference surface pressure (1000 mb) - PH (x, t) Pressure at z = H - R Specific gas constant for dry air - t Time - u, w Horizontal and vertical velocities - x, z Horizontal and vertical coordinates - x1, x2 Positions of discontinuities in surface temperature field (see Figure 2) - xa Heat island half-width - xb Boundary of integration region - Parameter in formula for eddy coefficients (variable-K case) = 18.0 - s Intensity of heat island - Potential temperature field - Reference absolute temperature (variable-K case) - r Reference temperature (° C) - s Surface temperature - Q Air density  相似文献   

17.
A novel and readily applicable Structure-Activity Relationship (SAR) for predicting the barrier height Eb to decomposition by C-C scission of (substituted) alkoxy radicals is presented. Alkoxy radicals are pivotal intermediates in the atmospheric oxidation of (biogenic) volatile organic compounds, and their fate is therefore of crucial importance to the understanding of atmospheric VOC degradation mechanisms. The SAR is based on available theoretical energy barriers and validated against barriers derived from experimental data. The SAR is expressed solely in terms of the number(s) Ni of alkyl-, hydroxy- and/or oxo-substituents on the - and -carbons of the breaking bond: Eb(kcal/mol) =17.5 – 2.1 × N(alk) – 3.1 ×N(alk) – 8.0 × N,(OH) – 8.0 × N(O=) – 12 × N(O=). For barriers below 7 kcal/mol, an additional, second-order term accounts for the curvature. The SAR reproduces the available experimental and theoretical data within 0.5 to 1 kcal/mol. The SAR generally allows conclusive predictions as to the fate of alkoxy radicals; several examples concerning oxy radicals from prominent atmospheric VOC are presented. Specific limitations of the SAR are also discussed. Using the predicted barrier height Eb, the high-pressure rate coefficient for alkoxy decomposition k diss (298 K) can be obtained from k diss (298 K) = L ×1.8 × 1013 exp(–Eb/RT) s–1, with L the reaction path degeneracy.  相似文献   

18.
Abrupt climatic oscillations around the North Atlantic have been identified recently in Greenland ice cores as well as in North Atlantic marine sediment cores. The good correlation between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the ice and the Heinrich events in the ocean suggests that climate, in the North Atlantic region, underwent several massive reorganizations in the last glacial period. A characteristic feature of these events seems to be their hierarchical structure. Every 7 to 10-thousand years, when the temperature is close to its minimum, the ice-sheet undergoes a massive iceberg discharge. This Heinrich event is then followed by an abrupt warming, then by several other oscillations, each one lasting between one and two thousand years. These secondary oscillations do not have a clear signature in marine sediments but constitute most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events found in the ice. Here we use a simplified model coupling an ice-sheet and an ocean basin, in order to illustrate how the interactions between these two components can lead to such a hierarchical structure. The ice-sheet model exhibits internal oscillations composed of ice-sheet growing phases and basal ice melting phases that induce massive iceberg discharges. These massive fresh water inputs in the ocean stop for a moment the thermohaline circulation, enhancing the temperature contrast between low- and high-latitudes. Just after this event, the thermohaline circulation restarts and an abrupt warming of high-latitude regions is observed. For some parameter values, these warmer temperatures have in turn some influence on the ice-sheet, inducing secondary oscillations similar to those found in paleoclimatic records. Although the mechanism presented here may be too grossly simplified, it nevertheless underlines the potential importance of the coupling between ice-sheet dynamics and oceanic thermohaline circulation on the structure of the climatic records during the last glacial period.  相似文献   

19.
The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.  相似文献   

20.
The paper considers a puff diffusion in its inertial stage when particle separation obeys the laws of the inertial subrange and depends only on eddy energy dissipation rate . The can be determined in the surface layer by the turbulent kinetic energy equation. Similarity equations connect with diffusion measure .A simple analytical model has been deduced to estimate pollutants diffusion during calms.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号