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1.
A long-term salt balance model is coupled with the small catchment water balance model presented in Part 1 of this series of papers. The salt balance model was designed as a simple robust, conceptually based model of the fundamental salt fluxes and stores in forested and cleared catchments. The model has four interdependent stores representing salt storage in the unsaturated zone, the deep permanent saturated groundwater system, the near-stream perched groundwater system and in a ‘salt bulge’ just above the permanent water-table. The model has performed well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in south-west Western Australia. When applied to Wights catchment the salt balance model was able to predict the stream salinities prior to clearing of native forests, and the increased salinities after the clearing.  相似文献   

2.
This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1–5 km2 in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing. The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km2) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.  相似文献   

3.
Predicting inter-catchment groundwater flow (IGF) is essential because IGF greatly affects stream water discharge and water chemistry. However, methods for estimating sub-annual IGF and clarifying its mechanisms using minimal data are limited. Thus, we quantified the sub-annual IGF and elucidated its driving factors using the short-term water balance method (STWB) for three forest headwater catchments in Japan (named here catchment A, B and As). Our previous study using the chloride mass balance indicated that annual IGF of catchment A (49.0 ha) can be negligible. Therefore, we calculated the daily evapotranspiration (ET) rate using the Priestley–Taylor expression and the 5-year water balance in catchment A (2010–2014). The sub-annual IGF of the three catchments was then calculated by subtracting the ET rate from the difference between rainfall and stream discharge during the sub-annual water balance periods selected using the STWB. The IGF rates of catchment B (7.0 ha), which is adjacent to catchment A, were positive in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed out of the catchment than into it, and exhibited positive linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. This suggested that as the catchments became wetter, more groundwater flowed out of catchment B. Conversely, the IGF rates of catchment As (5.3 ha), included in catchment A, were negative in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed into the catchment than out from it, and exhibited negative linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. Given the topography of the catchments studied, infiltration into the bedrock was the probable reason for the IGF outflow from catchment B. We hypothesized that in catchment As, the discrepancy between the actual hydrological boundary and the surface topographic boundary could have caused an IGF inflow. This study provides a useful tool for determining an IGF model structure to be incorporated into rainfall-runoff models.  相似文献   

4.
A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km2), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year?1 and 38 938 t year?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Streams are usually susceptible to land-use change, mainly in the tropics due to high dynamic climatic conditions. Native forests have been converted for agricultural purposes with significantly impacts in streams. Nowadays, forests plantations are taking place of some degraded land and its influence in headwater streams are not well understood in tropical high-altitude streams. Thus, this study aims to assess effects of land-use changes from pasture to Eucalyptus plantations in Colombian Andean catchments on stream water conditions and structural characteristics of stream channels. The study was conducted in three catchments, one catchment covered by pasture, one catchment that was converted from pasture to Eucalyptus plantations in 1995 and one pristine catchment with native forest cover. Physical, chemical and biological conditions of stream water were assessed by measurements of water temperature, concentration of dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a content of epiphytic communities. The structural characteristics of stream channels were evaluated using a visual-based habitat assessment protocol from the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed native forest and Eucalyptus plantations catchments associated with stream conservation characteristics and pasture catchment with overall degraded conditions. However, the Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) showed significant differences between all streams indicating that, despite the overall positive conservation aspects of native and Eucalyptus catchments, their still different from each other. Pasture catchment showed the highest values for temperature and chlorophyll-a, and the lowest values for dissolved oxygen and final score for structural characteristics. Therefore, our results demonstrated that the land-use change from pasture to Eucalyptus plantation improved the stream water conditions and the structural characteristics of the studied headwater streams. Additionally, we propose the use of the rapid bioassessment protocol coupled some stream water characteristics as a rapid and useful tool for detecting effects of land-use changes on high-altitude Andean streams.  相似文献   

6.
A review and evaluation of catchment transit time modeling   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
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7.
Partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff is controlled by climate and catchment characteristics. The degree of control exerted by these factors varies with the spatial and temporal scales of processes modeled. The Budyko framework or the “limits” concept was used to model water balance at four temporal scales (mean annual, annual, monthly and daily). The method represents a top-down approach to hydrologic modeling and is expected to achieve parsimony of model parameters. Daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow from 265 catchments in Australia were used. On a mean annual basis, the index of dryness defined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation was confirmed to be a dominant factor in determining the water balance with one model parameter. Analysis of the data, however, suggested increased model complexity is necessary on finer time scale such as monthly. In response, the Budyko framework for mean annual water balance was extended to include additional factors and this resulted in a parsimonious lumped conceptual model on shorter-time scale. The model was calibrated and tested against measured streamflow at variable time scales and showed promising results. The strengths of the model are consistent water balance relationships across different time scales, and model parsimony and robustness. As result, the model has the potential to be used to predict streamflow for ungauged catchments.  相似文献   

8.
Laurie Boithias  Yves Auda  Stéphane Audry  Jean-Pierre Bricquet  Alounsavath Chanhphengxay  Vincent Chaplot  Anneke de Rouw  Thierry Henry des Tureaux  Sylvain Huon  Jean-Louis Janeau  Keooudone Latsachack  Yann Le Troquer  Guillaume Lestrelin  Jean-Luc Maeght  Pierre Marchand  Pierre Moreau  Andrew Noble  Anne Pando-Bahuon  Kongkeo Phachomphon  Khambai Phanthavong  Alain Pierret  Olivier Ribolzi  Jean Riotte  Henri Robain  Emma Rochelle-Newall  Saysongkham Sayavong  Oloth Sengtaheuanghoung  Norbert Silvera  Nivong Sipaseuth  Bounsamay Soulileuth  Xaysatith Souliyavongsa  Phapvilay Sounyaphong  Sengkeo Tasaketh  Chanthamousone Thammahacksa  Jean-Pierre Thiebaux  Christian Valentin  Olga Vigiak  Marion Viguier  Khampaseuth Xayyathip 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14126
Mountain regions of the humid tropics are characterized by steep slopes and heavy rains. These regions are thus prone to both high surface runoff and soil erosion. In Southeast Asia, uplands are also subject to rapid land-use change, predominantly as a result of increased population pressure and market forces. Since 1998, the Houay Pano site, located in northern Lao PDR (19.85°N 102.17°E) within the Mekong basin, aims at assessing the long-term impact of the conversion of traditional slash-and-burn cultivation systems to commercial perennial monocultures such as teak tree plantations, on the catchment hydrological response and sediment yield. The instrumented site monitors hydro-meteorological and soil loss parameters at both microplot (1 m2) and small catchment (0.6 km2) scales. The monitored catchment is part of the network of critical zone observatories named Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS (M-TROPICS). The data shared by M-TROPICS in Houay Pano are (1) rainfall, (2) air temperature, air relative humidity, wind speed, and global radiation, (3) catchment land use, (4) stream water level, suspended particulate matter, bed particulate matter and stones, (5) soil surface features, and (6) soil surface runoff and soil detachment. The dataset has already been used to interpret suspended particulate matter and bed particulate matter sources and dynamics, to assess the impact of land-use change on catchment hydrology, soil erosion, and sediment yields, to understand bacteria fate and weed seed transport across the catchment, and to build catchment-scale models focused on hydrology and water quality issues. The dataset may be further used to, for example, assess the role of headwater catchments in large tropical river basin hydrology, support the interpretation of new variables measured in the catchment (e.g., contaminants other than faecal bacteria), and assess the relative impacts of both climate and land-use change on the catchment.  相似文献   

9.
Determining mean transit times in headwater catchments is critical for understanding catchment functioning and understanding their responses to changes in landuse or climate. Determining whether mean transit times (MTTs) correlate with drainage density, slope angle, area, or land cover permits a better understanding of the controls on water flow through catchments and allows first-order predictions of MTTs in other catchments to be made. This study assesses whether there are identifiable controls on MTTs determined using 3H in headwater catchments of southeast Australia. Despite MTTs at baseflow varying from a few years to >100 years, it was difficult to predict MTTs using single or groups of readily-measured catchment attributes. The lack of readily-identifiable correlations hampers the prediction of MTTs in adjacent catchments even where these have similar geology, land use, and topography. The long MTTs of the Australian headwater catchments are probably in part due to the catchments having high storage volumes in deeply-weathered regolith, combined with low recharge rates due to high evapotranspiration. However, the difficulty in estimating storage volumes at the catchment scale hampers the use of this parameter to estimate MTTs. The runoff coefficient (the fraction of rainfall exported via the stream) is probably also controlled by evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Correlations between the runoff coefficient and MTTs in individual catchments allow predictions of MTTs in nearby catchments to be made. MTTs are shorter in high rainfall periods as the catchments wet up and shallow water stores are mobilized. Despite the contribution of younger water, the major ion geochemistry in individual catchments commonly does not correlate with MTTs, probably reflecting heterogeneous reactions and varying degrees of evapotranspiration. Documenting MTTs in catchments with high storage volumes and/or low recharge rates elsewhere is important for understanding MTTs in diverse environments.  相似文献   

10.
Eight small steep south-west facing catchments (1-63-8-26 ha) have been monitored in Westland, New Zealand since 1974. Two catchments were retained in native mixed evergreen forest and the rest were subjected to various harvesting and land preparation techniques before being planted with Pinus radiata between 1977 and 1980. Stream temperatures were measured in all catchments for 11 years, including up to four years before harvesting. The streamwater temperature regime under the native forest cover has a seasonal cycle, with an annual mean of about 9°C and mean daily temperatures ranging between a winter minimum of about 5.8°C and a summer maximum of 12.S°C. After harvesting, the winter minimum stream temperatures in all trials were unchanged as topography exerts the major control over incoming solar radiation. The largest rises in mean summer stream temperatures, up to 5.5°C, were in the catchments that had been clearcut and burnt before planting. The maximum stream temperature recorded was 22.8°C in a clearcut catchment with no riparian reserve. Summer stream temperatures in this catchment were up to 11°C higher than in an adjacent control catchment. Summer stream temperature rises in catchments with riparian reserves were less than 1.5°C. Seven years after harvesting, stream temperatures were dropping towards pre-treatments levels in only two of the six treated catchments as revegetation of the riparian areas occurred and the plantations became established. As these small headwater streams discharge into streams with flows one or two orders of magnitude larger, the increases in summer stream temperatures will be rapidly dissipated. However, the cumulative impact of harvesting many small headwater catchments that discharge into a larger stream could have a noticeable effect on stream temperature if intact riparian reserves were not retained in both headwater and main streams.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

This paper describes the development of a field-scale model that simulates the nitrogen (N) cycle in grazed grassland within a catchment-scale management model which can predict the loading and concentration of nitrate in rivers. The development is comprised of the addition of two sub-models of nitrate transport: one relating the amount of soil nitrate to its concentration in drainage water for different types of soil, and the second accounting for the proportion of permeable rock underlying the catchment. The sub-model that calculates the supply and transport of soil nitrate has been made sensitive to annual patterns of weather according to a classification based on the maximum soil water deficit. The model predictions were tested against best estimates of annual load and peak concentration of nitrate in rivers draining 11 small, predominantly grassland, catchments in the UK during the period 1974–1987.  相似文献   

12.
The relationship between stream water DOC concentrations and soil organic C pools was investigated at a range of spatial scales in subcatchments of the River Dee system in north‐east Scotland. Catchment percentage peat cover and soil C pools, calculated using local, national and international soils databases, were related to mean DOC concentrations in streams draining small‐ (<5 km2), medium‐ (12–38 km2) and large‐scale (56–150 km2) catchments. The results show that, whilst soil C pool is a good predictor of stream water DOC concentration at all three scales, the strongest relationships were found in the small‐scale catchments. In addition, in both the small‐ and large‐scale catchments, percentage peat cover was as a good predictor of stream water DOC concentration as catchment soil C pool. The data also showed that, for a given soil C pool, streams draining lowland (<700 m) catchments had higher DOC concentrations than those draining upland (>700 m) catchments, suggesting that disturbance and land use may have a small effect on DOC concentration. Our results therefore suggest that the relationship between stream water DOC concentration and catchment soil C pools exists at a range of spatial scales and this relationship appears to be sufficiently robust to be used to predict the effects of changes in catchment soil C storage on stream water DOC concentration. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km2). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5–10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15–20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25–1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5–1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21–31% and stream flows by 16–23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
River channel sediment dynamics are important in integrated catchment management because changes in channel morphology resulting from sediment transfer have important implications for many river functions. However, application of existing approaches that account for catchment‐scale sediment dynamics has been limited, largely due to the difficulty in obtaining data necessary to support them. It is within this context that this study develops a new, reach‐based, stream power balance approach for predicting river channel adjustment. The new approach, named ST:REAM (sediment transport: reach equilibrium assessment method), is based upon calculations of unit bed area stream power (ω) derived from remotely sensed slope, width and discharge datasets. ST:REAM applies a zonation algorithm to values of ω that are spaced every 50 m along the catchment network in order to divide the branches of the network up into relatively homogenous reaches. ST:REAM then compares each reach's ω value with the ω of its upstream neighbour in order to predict whether or not the reach is likely to be either erosion dominated or deposition dominated. The paper describes the application of ST:REAM to the River Taff in South Wales, UK. This test study demonstrated that ST:REAM can be rapidly applied using remotely sensed data that are available across many river catchments and that ST:REAM correctly predicted the status of 87.5% of sites within the Taff catchment that field observations had defined as being either erosion or deposition dominated. However, there are currently a number of factors that limit the usefulness of ST:REAM, including inconsistent performance and the need for additional, resource intensive, data to be collected to both calibrate the model and aid interpretation of its results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The introduction of exotic, fast-growing forest species in the Pampa biome (Southern Grasslands) is a controversial topic, considering the potential effect on water and soil resources. This repository contains hydrologic data (rainfall, discharge and turbidity) collected since 2011 in three small (≤1.1 km2), paired experimental catchments of the “Ponta da Canas” site, in the Pampa biome in subtropical Brazil. Two catchments are predominantly covered with eucalyptus plantations, and one with livestock-grazing degraded grassland. For each catchment, the collected data include 10-min resolution rainfall, streamflow, and turbidity (except for one of the eucalyptus catchments), automatically recorded in 10-min intervals. In each catchment, rainfall is measured with an automatic tipping-bucket rain gauge; stream depth is determined with a pressure transducer at the spillway, and a rating curve is used to estimate discharge; and turbidity is measured with a turbidimeter. The collected data are being used to understand water balance and sediment production under the distinct land uses, to improve forest management, and comply with State legislation.  相似文献   

16.
Australian arid zone ephemeral rivers are typically unregulated and maintain a high level of biodiversity and ecological health. Understanding the ecosystem functions of these rivers requires an understanding of their hydrology. These rivers are typified by highly variable hydrological regimes and a paucity, often a complete absence, of hydrological data to describe these flow regimes. A daily time‐step, grid‐based, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was developed for the previously uninstrumented Neales River in the arid zone of northern South Australia. Hourly, logged stage data provided a record of stream‐flow events in the river system. In conjunction with opportunistic gaugings of stream‐flow events, these data were used in the calibration of the model. The poorly constrained spatial variability of rainfall distribution and catchment characteristics (e.g. storage depths) limited the accuracy of the model in replicating the absolute magnitudes and volumes of stream‐flow events. In particular, small but ecologically important flow events were poorly modelled. Model performance was improved by the application of catchment‐wide processes replicating quick runoff from high intensity rainfall and improving the area inundated versus discharge relationship in the channel sections of the model. Representing areas of high and low soil moisture storage depths in the hillslope areas of the catchment also improved the model performance. The need for some explicit representation of the spatial variability of catchment characteristics (e.g. channel/floodplain, low storage hillslope and high storage hillslope) to effectively model the range of stream‐flow events makes the development of relatively complex rainfall–runoff models necessary for multisite ecological studies in large, ungauged arid zone catchments. Grid‐based conceptual models provide a good balance between providing the capacity to easily define land types with differing rainfall–runoff responses, flexibility in defining data output points and a parsimonious water‐balance–routing model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Expansion of impervious surface cover results in “flashy” hydrologic response, elevated flood risk, and degraded water quality in urban watersheds. Stormwater management ponds (SWMPs) are often engineered into stream networks to mitigate these issues. A clearer understanding of how water is stored and released from SWMPs and SWMP-treated catchments is required to better represent these engineered systems in hydrological and water quality models of urban and urbanizing watersheds. Stable water isotopes were used to compare water age in SWMPs and SWMP-treated catchments in an urbanizing watershed. We sampled water biweekly from two SWMPs and five stream sites with varying land cover and stormwater control in their catchments. Two inverse transit time proxies (damping ratio and young water fraction) were computed along with the mean transit time (MTT) by sine–wave fitting for each SWMP and stream site using the δ18O and δ2H data. Water entering the SWMPs was consistently older (224 and 177 days) than water in or exiting the ponds (ranging from 46 to 91 days and 39 to 67 days, respectively). This finding is likely due to a combination of groundwater infiltration into broken sewer pipes that transport water into the ponds and a bias toward baseflow sampling. At the catchment scale, detention provided by SWMPs was not found to be more significant than the interactive effects of impervious cover, surficial geology, land use proportions, and catchment size in determining MTT. Overall, surficial geology explained the most variation in MTT among the seven sites. This study illustrates the potential for isotope-based approaches of water age to provide information on individual SWMP functioning and the influence of SWMPs on catchment-scale water movement.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

A flow-interval hillslope discretization scheme is proposed for catchment hydrological modelling. By this scheme, a two-dimensional catchment is simplified into a one-dimensional cascade of flow intervals linked by the main stream. Each flow interval comprises a set of parallel hillslopes. The hillslope is the fundamental computational unit in the hydrological model providing lateral inflow to the main stream. The size of hillslope is determined by the catchment area and width functions. Catchment runoff is the total of hillslope responses through the river routing. Tests in four Japanese catchments showed that the model performed well on simulating the overall water balance, general flow pattern, and daily and hourly hydrographs of a whole catchment, as well as simultaneous simulation in different subcatchments. Characteristics of catchment hydrological responses and model applicability are discussed.  相似文献   

19.
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was measured at four or eight hour intervals between mid-1989 and mid-1991 in two catchments in west central Scotland. The experimental catchment had been recently clear-felled and the control remained under forest. The amount of DOC varied during individual storm events following the stream hydro-graph. Maximum variations were found in the summer half-year and in the clear-felled catchment. There was also evidence of the exhaustion of DOC in the later events of a sequence. Differences between the catchments were related to catchment characteristics and to land-use change. The reduced magnitude of variation in DOC with discharge in the control stream was due to the influence of a wetland area through which the stream flowed. The mean DOC concentrations were similar in the two streams and annual exports were 15 g m?2 from the control and 16g m?2 from the felled catchment. The stream draining the clear-felled catchment had greater high flow DOC concentrations in the summer half-year, probably due to the effect of greater mean summer temperatures on DOC release and of the greater supply of organic debris in the stream channel.  相似文献   

20.
The integrated hydrological modelling system, IHMS, has been described in detail in Part 1 of this paper. The system comprises three models: Distributed Catchment Scale Model (DiCaSM), MODFLOW (v96 and v2000) and SWI. The DiCaSM simulates different components of the unsaturated zone water balance, including groundwater recharge. The recharge output from DiCaSM is used as input to the saturated zone model MODFLOW, which subsequently calculates groundwater flows and head distributions. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to show the way more accurate predictions of groundwater levels in two Cyprus catchments can be obtained using improved estimates of groundwater recharge from the catchment water balance, and (2) to demonstrate the interface utility that simulates communication between unsaturated and saturated zone models and allows the transmission of data between the two models at the required spatial and temporal scales. The linked models can be used to predict the impact of future climate change on surface and groundwater resources and to estimate the future water supply shortfall in the island up to 2050. The DiCaSM unsaturated zone model was successfully calibrated and validated against stream flows with reasonable values for goodness of fit as shown by the Nash‐Sutcliffe criterion. Groundwater recharge obtained from the successful tests was applied at various spatial and temporal scales to the Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus. These recharge values produced good estimates of groundwater levels in both catchments. Once calibrated, the model was run using a number of possible future climate change scenarios. The results showed that by 2050, groundwater and surface water supplies would decrease by 35% and 24% for Kouris and 20% and 17% for Akrotiri, respectively. The gap between water supply and demand showed a linear increase with time. The results suggest that IHMS can be used as an effective tool for water authorities and decision makers to help balance demand and supply on the island. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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