共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Masoud Mirmomeni Caro Lucas Babak Nadjar Araabi Behzad Moshiri Mohammad Reza Bidar 《Solar physics》2011,272(1):189-213
The time-varying Sun as the main source of space weather affects the Earth??s magnetosphere by emitting hot magnetized plasma in the form of solar wind into interplanetary space. Solar and geomagnetic activity indices and their chaotic characteristics vary abruptly during solar and geomagnetic storms. This variation depicts the difficulties in modeling and long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic storms. On the other hand, the combination of neurofuzzy models and spectral analysis has been a subject of interest due to their many practical applications in modeling and predicting complex phenomena. However, these approaches should be trained by algorithms that need to be carried out by an offline data set, which influences their performance in online modeling and prediction of time-varying phenomena. This paper proposes an adaptive approach for multi-step ahead prediction of space weather indices by extending the regular singular spectrum analysis and locally linear neurofuzzy models to adaptive approaches. The combination of these recursive approaches fulfills requirements of long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The results demonstrate the power of the proposed method in online prediction of space weather indices. 相似文献
2.
Due to the specific dynamics, the probes located at the halo orbits or Lissajous orbits around the Earth-Moon collinear libration point L1 or L2 are always studied in the synodic system to understand their trajectories. In fact, they are also orbiting the Earth in a distant Keplerian ellipse. Because of their intrinsic orbital instability, in the orbit prediction the initial errors propagate more prominently than those of the normal orbiting satellites, this requires special attention in the orbit design, maneuver, and control. Despite of all this, they are similar to the normal orbiting satellites in orbit determination and hardly require other special attentions. In this paper, the quantitative results of error propagation under the unstable dynamics, together with the theoretical analysis are presented. The results of precise orbit determination and short-arc orbit predictions are also shown, and compared with the results from the Beijing Aerospace Control Center. 相似文献
3.
Carolin Früh Thomas M. Kelecy Moriba K. Jah 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2013,117(4):385-404
The orbital and attitude dynamics of uncontrolled Earth orbiting objects are perturbed by a variety of sources. In research, emphasis has been put on operational space vehicles. Operational satellites typically have a relatively compact shape, and hence, a low area-to-mass ratio (AMR), and are in most cases actively or passively attitude stabilized. This enables one to treat the orbit and attitude propagation as decoupled problems, and in many cases the attitude dynamics can be neglected completely. The situation is different for space debris objects, which are in an uncontrolled attitude state. Furthermore, the assumption that a steady-state attitude motion can be averaged over data reduction intervals may no longer be valid. Additionally, a subset of the debris objects have significantly high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) values, resulting in highly perturbed orbits, e.g. by solar radiation pressure, even if a stable AMR value is assumed. Note, this assumption implies a steady-state attitude such that the average cross-sectional area exposed to the sun is close to constant. Time-varying solar radiation pressure accelerations due to attitude variations will result in un-modeled errors in the state propagation. This work investigates the evolution of the coupled attitude and orbit motion of HAMR objects. Standardized pieces of multilayer insulation (MLI) are simulated in a near geosynchronous orbits. It is assumed that the objects are rigid bodies and are in uncontrolled attitude states. The integrated effects of the Earth gravitational field and solar radiation pressure on the attitude motion are investigated. The light curves that represent the observed brightness variations over time in a specific viewing direction are extracted. A sensor model is utilized to generate light curves with visibility constraints and magnitude uncertainties as observed by a standard ground based telescope. The photometric models will be needed when combining photometric and astrometric observations for estimation of orbit and attitude dynamics of non-resolved space objects. 相似文献
4.
Acoustic radiation is the signal of choice for exploring Earth??s oceans. Its potential application for the oceans of icy moons requires investigation. However acoustic technology needs to be treated with care for extra-terrestrial purposes. Instruments, calibrations, and predictive codes that have served well on Earth may require fundamental redesign for use on other worlds. However when such an assessment is achieved, acoustic signals open up the possibility of exploring volumes exceeding one million cubic kilometres in a few minutes. This paper begins at tutorial level for novice acousticians, illustrating the principles by which acoustics can be used to monitor the environment at great distances from the source, both by projecting out signals and by using natural signals of opportunity. It then progresses to calculations for a generic icy moon (which resembles, but does not model Europa), proceeding from tutorial calculations of ??flat world?? models to calculate the propagation times for pulses to circumpropagate around the entire moon. Given that a single emitted pulse can produce multiple arrivals from different propagation paths, the paper discusses how the structure of the received time history can be used to monitor changes in the temperature profile in the ocean, position of the water/ice layer and the asphericity of the moon during orbit. 相似文献
5.
The propagation of extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic waves and resonance phenomena in the Earth atmosphere has been extensively studied, in relation with ionospheric dynamics, and thunderstorm and lightning activities. A similar investigation can be performed for any other planet and satellite environment, provided this body is wrapped into an ionosphere. There are, however, important differences between Earth and other bodies, regarding the surface conductivity, the atmospheric electron density, the ionospheric cavity geometry, and the sources of electromagnetic energy. In a first approximation, the size of the cavity defines the range of the resonance frequency; the electron density profile, up to the upper atmospheric boundary, controls the wave attenuation; the nature of the electromagnetic sources influences the field distribution in the cavity; and the body surface conductivity, which gives the reflection and transmission coefficients, indicates to what extent the subsurface can be explored. The knowledge of the frequencies and attenuation rates of the principal eigenmodes provides unique information about the electric properties of the cavity. Instruments capable of monitoring the electromagnetic environment in the ELF range are, therefore, valuable payload elements on balloons, descent probes and landers. We develop models for selected inner planets, gaseous giants and their satellites, and review the propagation process of ELF electromagnetic waves in their atmospheric cavities, with a particular emphasis on the application of the Schumann resonance observation to subsurface studies. The instrumentation suitable for monitoring the electromagnetic environment in geophysical cavities is briefly addressed. 相似文献
6.
Da-wei Wang Jing-shi Tang Lin Liu Chao-wei Ma Shi-feng Hao 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2018,42(2):239-266
To understand the long-term evolution and distribution of the space objects, it is necessary to predict their orbits. Compared with the short-term prediction of a few days, the priority concerns of the long-term orbit prediction are the calculation speed, and the accuracies of major orbital elements, including the semi-major axis and eccentricity which define the shape of the orbit, as well as the orbital inclination and the right ascension of ascending node which define the orientation of the orbit. Given these requirements, it is preferable to adopt the semi-analytical method, which averages the system over the orbital period, and integrates the averaged system using the numerical method. It is not new, however, in the available literature, we can hardly find a quantitative assessment regarding its accuracy and speed when it is applied to various types of orbits. In this paper, we would like to report our implementation and assessment of the semi-analytical method, expecting that it would help to estimate its feasibility in the long-term orbit prediction. The quantitative assessment covers the commonly used orbits for the Earth satellites. In some rare and special cases where the performance of our method appears abnormal, we discuss the reasons and possible solutions. We hope our results can provide some useful reference for the similar applications of the semi-analytical method since our method is a relatively common approach in terms of both accuracy and implementation. 相似文献
7.
We considered the impacts of very large cosmic bodies (with radii in the range 100–200 to 1000–2000 km) on the early Earth, whose mass, radius and density distribution are close to the current values. The impacts of such bodies were possible during the first hundreds of million years after the formation of the Earth and the Moon. We present and analyze the results of a numerical simulation of the impact of a planetesimal, the size of which is equal to that of the contemporary Moon (1700 km). In three-dimensional computations, the velocity (15 and 30 km/s) and the angle (45°, 60°, and 90°) of the impact are varied. We determined the mass losses and traced the evolution of the shape of the Earth's surface, taking into account the self-consistent gravitational forces that arise in the ejected and remaining materials in accordance with the real, time-dependent mass distribution. Shock waves reflected from the core are shown to propagate from the impact site deep into the Earth. The core undergoes strong, gradually damped oscillations. Although motions in the Earth's mantle gradually decline, they have enough time to put the Earth in a rotational motion. As a result, a wave travels over the Earth's surface, whose amplitude, in the case of an oblique impact, depends on the direction of the wave propagation. The maximum height of this wave is tremendous—it attains several hundred kilometers. Some portion of the ejected material (up to 40% of the impactor mass) falls back onto Earth under the action of gravity. This portion is equivalent to the layer of a condensed material with a thickness on the order of ten kilometers. The appearance of this hot layer should result in a global melting of near-surface layers, which can limit the age of terrestrial rocks by the time of the impact under consideration. For lesser-sized impactors, say, for impactors with radii of about 160 km, the qualitative picture resembles that described above but the amplitude of disturbances is considerably smaller. This amplitude, however, is sufficient to cause a crustal disruption (if such a crust has already formed) and intense volcanic activity. 相似文献
8.
D. Pérez-Suárez S. A. Maloney P. A. Higgins D. S. Bloomfield P. T. Gallagher G. Pierantoni X. Bonnin B. Cecconi V. Alberti K. Bocchialini M. Dierckxsens A. Opitz A. Le Blanc J. Aboudarham R. B. Bentley J. Brooke B. Coghlan A. Csillaghy C. Jacquey B. Lavraud M. Messerotti 《Solar physics》2012,280(2):603-621
The Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO) is a software infrastructure involving a collection of web services, heliospheric data sources (e.g., solar, planetary, etc.), and event catalogues – all of which are accessible through a unified front end. In this paper we use the HELIO infrastructure to perform three case studies based on solar events that propagate through the heliosphere. These include a coronal mass ejection that intersects both Earth and Mars, a solar energetic particle event that crosses the orbit of Earth, and a high-speed solar wind stream, produced by a coronal hole, that is observed in situ at Earth (L1). A ballistic propagation model is run as one of the HELIO services and used to model these events, predicting if they will interact with a spacecraft or planet and determining the associated time of arrival. The HELIO infrastructure streamlines the method used to perform these kinds of case study by centralising the process of searching for and visualising data, indicating interesting features on the solar disk, and finally connecting remotely observed solar features with those detected by in situ solar wind and energetic particle instruments. HELIO represents an important leap forward in European heliophysics infrastructure by bridging the boundaries of traditional scientific domains. 相似文献
9.
V. S. Gubanov 《Astronomy Letters》2009,35(4):270-277
The Earth’s rotation is accompanied by free circadian oscillations of its liquid core in the inner cavity of the lower mantle, which perturb the angular momentum of the entire Earth and produce an additional free nutation of the celestial pole called free core nutation (FCN). Since this nutation causes resonances in the diurnal tides and in the expansions of luni—solar nutation, its study, especially an improvement of the FCN period, is of fundamental importance for the theory of the Earth’s rotation. We have determined the FCN parameters from a joint analysis of equidistant series of coordinates of the celestial pole obtained from the combined processing of VLBI observations on global networks of stations for the interval 1984.0–2008.4 by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service, Paris, France) and NEOS (National Earth Orientation Service, Washington, USA). Applying a moving least-squares filter (MLSF) to these data has shown that the FCN period averaged over this time interval differs significantly from the theoretical one and its phase varies over a wide range. Using the mean quadratic collocation (MQC) method, we have obtained a new, more accurate stochastic FCN model. Its analysis by the envelope method has revealed long-term linear phase trends, calling into question not only the adopted FCN period but also its stability and, hence, the stability of the resonant effects in the Earth’s luni—solar nutation. 相似文献
10.
Predicting the Arrival Time of Shock Passages at Earth 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The purpose of this parametric study is to predict the arrival time at Earth of shocks due to disturbances observed on the Sun. A 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation code is used to simulate the evolution of these disturbances as they propagate out to 1 AU. The model in Han, Wu and Dryer (1988) uses solar data for input at 0.08 AU (18 solar radii). The initial shock speed (ISS) is assumed to be constant from the corona to 0.08 AU. We investigate how variations of this ISS affect the arrival times of the shock at Earth. This basic parametric study, however, does not consider inhomogeneous background solar wind structures such as corotating interaction regions and their precursor stream–stream interactions, nor interplanetary manifestations of complex coronal mass ejecta such as magnetic clouds. In the latter case, only their associated shocks are considered. Because the ambient (pre-existing background) solar wind speed is known to affect the shock arrival time at 1 AU, we also simulated events with various background solar wind speeds (BSWS) to investigate this effect. The results show that the shock arrival time at Earth depends on the BSWS, the speed of solar disturbances, their size, and their source location at the Sun. However, it is found that for a sufficiently large momentum input, the shock arrival time at Earth is not significantly affected by the pre-existing solar wind speed. 相似文献
11.
YANG KeJun 《时间频率学报》1996,(1)
在卫星定位与授时中，电离层折射误差的影响是十分重要的．目前采用的主要改正方法是双频法，还有电离层模型法．双频法要求卫星发射两个工作频率，而电离层模型法的偏差又较大，这对于使用单频接收机的用户来讲，电离层折射改正就成为一个严重问题，笔者提出的双极化法正好可以解决单频接收机所遇到的问题．双极化法是基于电离层的双折射特性．一个线极化波在电离层中传播时被分裂成两个圆极化波，即左旋圆极化波和右旋圆极化波传播，左旋与右旋圆极化波在电离层中传播的速度不同，则到达接收点的时间也就不同，通过测量两个圆极化波到达接收点的传播时廷差，即可确定电离层折射误差的改正量． 相似文献
12.
Prasenjit Sengupta Srinivas R. Vadali Kyle T. Alfriend 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,97(2):101-129
This paper develops a tensor and its inverse, for the analytical propagation of the position and velocity of a satellite,
with respect to another, in an eccentric orbit. The tensor is useful for relative motion analysis where the separation distance
between the two satellites is large. The use of nonsingular elements in the formulation ensures uniform validity even when
the reference orbit is circular. Furthermore, when coupled with state transition matrices from existing works that account
for perturbations due to Earth oblateness effects, its use can very accurately propagate relative states when oblateness effects
and second-order nonlinearities from the differential gravitational field are of the same order of magnitude. The effectiveness
of the tensor is illustrated with various examples. 相似文献
13.
S. Pohjolainen L. van Driel-Gesztelyi J. L. Culhane P. K. Manoharan H. A. Elliott 《Solar physics》2007,244(1-2):167-188
We explore the relationship among three coronal mass ejections (CMEs), observed on 28 October 2003, 7 November 2004, and 20 January 2005, the type II burst-associated shock waves in the corona and solar wind, as well as the arrival of their related shock waves and magnetic clouds at 1 AU. Using six different coronal/interplanetary density models, we calculate the speeds of shocks from the frequency drifts observed in metric and decametric radio wave data. We compare these speeds with the velocity of the CMEs as observed in the plane-of-the-sky white-light observations and calculated with a cone model for the 7 November 2004 event. We then follow the propagation of the ejecta using Interplanetary Scintillation measurements, which were available for the 7 November 2004 and 20 January 2005 events. Finally, we calculate the travel time of the interplanetary shocks between the Sun and Earth and discuss the velocities obtained from the different data. This study highlights the difficulties in making velocity estimates that cover the full CME propagation time. 相似文献
14.
The densities measured by the CACTUS microaccelerometer at altitudes from 270 to 600 km are used to analyze the effect of tidal perturbations in the Earth’s thermosphere caused by the gravitational attraction of the Moon and the Sun. These tidal perturbations are considered a priori small and are not taken into account in modern atmospheric density models. The residuals between the densities measured by the CACTUS microaccelerometer and calculated by models are analyzed, and the density variations correlating with variations of the zenith angles from the Moon to the center of the Earth to the satellite and from the Sun to the center of the Earth to the satellite are found at altitudes from 270 to 600 km. The amplitude of the perturbations revealed in the study grows with height. The phase of the tidal perturbations also varies with height. The amplitude of the density variations is about 30% at 270–320 km and increases to 80% at 520–570 km. The results agree with a priori theoretical estimates obtained for tidal motion of gaseous matter with a variable density. 相似文献
15.
A. Raoult E. Correla P. Lantos P. Kaufmann K. L. Klein G. de Genouillac 《Solar physics》1989,120(1):125-136
The propagation speed of the exciter of solar type III bursts is derived from observations with high space and time resolution at 22 GHz and 169 MHz. A survey of an active region during two successive days revealed a high degree of association between microwave and type III bursts. From a detailed investigation of their location and timing, which requires neither a coronal density model nor the assumption of radial propagation, the exciter is found to propagate at a speed above at least 0.6c, i.e., much faster than the commonly cited value of c/3. Type III bursts in the dm-m wave band, hence, may reveal the energization of electrons up to energies far above 100 keV. 相似文献
16.
We propose an approach to the study of the evolution of high-apogee twelve-hour orbits of artificial Earth’s satellites. We describe parameters of the motion model used for the artificial Earth’s satellite such that the principal gravitational perturbations of the Moon and Sun, nonsphericity of the Earth, and perturbations from the light pressure force are approximately taken into account. To solve the system of averaged equations describing the evolution of the orbit parameters of an artificial satellite, we use both numeric and analytic methods. To select initial parameters of the twelve-hour orbit, we assume that the path of the satellite along the surface of the Earth is stable. Results obtained by the analytic method and by the numerical integration of the evolving system are compared. For intervals of several years, we obtain estimates of oscillation periods and amplitudes for orbital elements. To verify the results and estimate the precision of the method, we use the numerical integration of rigorous (not averaged) equations of motion of the artificial satellite: they take into account forces acting on the satellite substantially more completely and precisely. The described method can be applied not only to the investigation of orbit evolutions of artificial satellites of the Earth; it can be applied to the investigation of the orbit evolution for other planets of the Solar system provided that the corresponding research problem will arise in the future and the considered special class of resonance orbits of satellites will be used for that purpose. 相似文献
17.
A detailed derivation of the effect of solar radiation pressure on the orbit of a body about a primary orbiting the Sun is
given. The result is a set of secular equations that can be used for long-term predictions of changes in the orbit. Solar
radiation pressure is modeled as a Fourier series in the body’s rotation state, where the coefficients are based on the shape
and radiation properties of the body as parameters. In this work, the assumption is made that the body is in a synchronous
orbit about the primary and rotates at a constant rate. This model is used to write explicit variational equations of the
energy, eccentricity vector, and angular momentum vector for an orbiting body. Given that the effect of the solar radiation
pressure and the orbit are periodic functions, they are readily averaged over an orbit. Furthermore, the equations can be
averaged again over the orbit of the primary about the Sun to give secular equations for long-term prediction. This methodology
is applied to both circular and elliptical orbits, and the full equations for secular changes to the orbit in both cases are
presented. These results can be applied to natural systems, such as the binary asteroid system 1999 KW4, to predict their
evolution due to the Binary YORP effect, or to artificial Earth orbiting, nadir-pointing satellites to enable more precise
models for their orbital evolution. 相似文献
18.
《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part C: Solar, Terrestrial & Planetary Science》2000,25(4):353-357
The signals of Global Navigation Satellites have found a large number of uses in atmospheric and ionospheric research. Reception of the signals from a satellite in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) leads regularly to occultation of the signals by the surface of the Earth. Before an occultation the signals traverse the ionosphere with rays with decreasing height of their perigees. Satellite electron content observed prior to ‘setting’ occultations or after `rising' occultations can be used as input data for inversion. The inversion procedure gives horizontally averaged height profiles of electron density.Assessment studies are needed to find out under which conditions the profiles from inversions are representative for ‘true’ electron density profiles above the Earth occultation point.A great number of such studies have been carried out using the ionosphere/plasmasphere model NeUOG-plas for forward and backward modelling. Different transmitter-receiver scenarios have been investigated.We describe the assessment procedure and report on results showing the most interesting cases and statistics. 相似文献
19.
Conditions are presented for maintenance of asteroid magnetospheres by dipole moments and for propagation of whistler mode noise in the solar wind at asteroid distances. Surface field intensities less than one thousandth that of the Earth are found adequate for supporting magnetospheres in the quiet solar wind surrounding the larger asteroids. Magnetospheric diameters are likely to be small, however, and difficult to identify without targeted, close-approach flybys. Under most ordinary conditions, whistler noise generated in an asteroidal shock or by other interaction with the solar wind will not propagate back upstream toward the sun, but may form a detectable wake downstream. Pure standing whistler wavefronts could be a unique asteroidal phenomenon. 相似文献
20.
Fabien Gachet Alessandra Celletti Giuseppe Pucacco Christos Efthymiopoulos 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,128(2-3):149-181
The long-term dynamics of the geostationary Earth orbits (GEO) is revisited through the application of canonical perturbation theory. We consider a Hamiltonian model accounting for all major perturbations: geopotential at order and degree two, lunisolar perturbations with a realistic model for the Sun and Moon orbits, and solar radiation pressure. The long-term dynamics of the GEO region has been studied both numerically and analytically, in view of the relevance of such studies to the issue of space debris or to the disposal of GEO satellites. Past studies focused on the orbital evolution of objects around a nominal solution, hereafter called the forced equilibrium solution, which shows a particularly strong dependence on the area-to-mass ratio. Here, we (i) give theoretical estimates for the long-term behavior of such orbits, and (ii) we examine the nature of the forced equilibrium itself. In the lowest approximation, the forced equilibrium implies motion with a constant non-zero average ‘forced eccentricity’, as well as a constant non-zero average inclination, otherwise known in satellite dynamics as the inclination of the invariant ‘Laplace plane’. Using a higher order normal form, we demonstrate that this equilibrium actually represents not a point in phase space, but a trajectory taking place on a lower-dimensional torus. We give analytical expressions for this special trajectory, and we compare our results to those found by numerical orbit propagation. We finally discuss the use of proper elements, i.e., approximate integrals of motion for the GEO orbits. 相似文献