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1.
We applied special data-processing algorithms to the study of long-period oscillations of the magnetic-field strength and
the line-of-sight velocity in sunspots. The oscillations were investigated with two independent groups of data. First, we
used an eight-hour-long series of solar spectrograms, obtained with the solar telescope at the Pulkovo Observatory. We simultaneously
measured Doppler shifts of six spectral lines, formed at different heights in the atmosphere. Second, we had a long time series
of full-disk magnetograms (10 – 34 hour) from SOHO/MDI for the line-of-sight magnetic-field component. Both ground- and space-based
observations revealed long-period modes of oscillations (40 – 45, 60 – 80, and 160 – 180 minutes) in the power spectrum of
the sunspots and surrounding magnetic structures. With the SOHO/MDI data, one can study the longer periodicities. We obtained
two new significant periods (> 3σ) in the power spectra of sunspots: around 250 and 480 minutes. The power of the oscillations in the lower frequencies is
always higher than in the higher ones. The amplitude of the long-period magnetic-field modes shows magnitudes of about 200 – 250 G.
The amplitude of the line-of-sight velocity periodicities is about 60 – 110 m s−1. The absence of low-frequency oscillations in the telluric line proves their solar nature. Moreover, the absence of low-frequency
oscillations of the line-of-sight velocity in the quiet photosphere (free of magnetic elements) proves their direct connection
to magnetic structures. Long-period modes of oscillation observed in magnetic elements surrounding the sunspot are spread
over the meso-granulation scales (10″ – 12″), while the sunspot itself oscillates as a whole. The amplitude of the long-period
mode of the line-of-sight velocity in a sunspot decreases rapidly with height: these oscillations are clearly visible in the
spectral lines originating at heights of approximately 200 km and fade away in lines originating at 500 km. We found a new
interesting property: the low-frequency oscillations of a sunspot are strongly reduced when there is a steady temporal trend
(strengthening or weakening) of the sunspot’s magnetic field. Another important result is that the frequency of long-period
oscillations evidently depends on the sunspot’s magnetic-field strength. 相似文献
2.
J. Javaraiah 《Solar physics》2008,252(2):419-439
Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah
(Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc.
377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern
hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval
of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude
of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year
periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south
asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years
in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically
significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3).
By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get
87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that
cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even
numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially
responsible for all the above relationships.
The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles,
CA 90095-1547, USA. 相似文献
3.
In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately
for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30
November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited
a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35
days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240
days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area
data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different
hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of
150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part
of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in
photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys.
438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations. 相似文献
4.
The north – south (N – S) asymmetry of solar activity is investigated by using the data on coronal green-line brightness and
total number and total area of sunspots over the period of 1939 – 2001. Typical time variations of the N – S asymmetry are
found to be consonant in these indices. Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of solar activity are well recognizable in the N – S
asymmetry of the examined indices. Moreover, the QBO are much better manifested in the N – S asymmetry of the individual indices
than in the original (N plus S) indices. The time variations of relative QBO power are synchronous for the N – S asymmetry
of various solar activity indices whereas such a synchronization is weaker for the indices themselves. It is revealed that
the relative QBO power found in the N – S asymmetry of the studied indices has a negative correlation with the value of the
N – S asymmetry itself. The findings indicate that the N – S asymmetry should be regarded as a fundamental phenomenon of solar
activity similarly manifested in different activity indices. These findings should be taken into account when any dynamo theory
of solar activity is constructed. 相似文献
5.
We find that oscillations of the LOS velocity in Hα vary within facula regions. The power spectra show that the contributions
of low-frequency modes (1.2 – 2 mHz) increase at the network boundaries. Three- and five-minute periods dominate inside cells.
The spectra of photospheric and chromospheric LOS-velocity oscillations differ for most faculae. We detected several cases
where oscillations in faculae seem to propagate horizontally with phase velocities of 50 – 70 km s−1. Their location in space and time coincided with the local maximum of the longitudinal magnetic field. 相似文献
6.
The first statistical results in sunspot distributions in 1996–2004 obtained from the Solar Feature Catalogues (SFC) are presented.
A novel robust technique is developed for automated identification of sunspots on SOHO/MDI white-light (WL) full-disk solar
images. The technique applies image standardization procedures for elimination of the limb darkening and non-circular image
shape, uses edge-detection methods to find the sunspot candidates and their edges and morphological operations to smooth the
features and fill in gaps. The detected sunspots are verified with the SOHO/MDI magnetograms by strong magnetic fields being
present in sunspots. A number of physical and geometrical parameters of the detected sunspot features are extracted and stored
in the relational SFC database including umbra/penumbra masks in the form of run-length data encoding of sunspot bounding
rectangles. The detection results are verified by comparison with the manual daily detection results in Meudon and Locarno
Observatories in 2002 and by correlation (about 96%) with the 4 year sunspot areas produced manually at NOAA. Using the SFC
data, sunspot area distributions are presented in different phases of the solar cycle and hemispheres which reveals a periodicity
of the north–south asymmetry with a period of about 7–8 years. The number of sunspots increases exponentially with the area
decrease with the index slightly increasing from −1.15 (1997) to −1.34 (2001). 相似文献
7.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):177-190
From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective
of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007)
and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97)
with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means
indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux,
coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar
energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic
fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double
peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric
intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities
in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within
± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial
solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude
belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were
almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally,
the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very
weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°. 相似文献
8.
We present the results of a statistical study of the solar cycle based on the analysis of the superficial toroidal magnetic
field component phase space. The magnetic field component used to create the embedded phase space was constructed from monthly
sunspot number observations since 1750. The phase space was split into 32 sections (or time instants) and the average values
of the orbits on this phase space were calculated (giving the most probable cycle). In this phase space it is shown that the
magnetic field on the Sun’s surface evolves through a set of orbits that go around a mean orbit (i.e., the most probable magnetic cycle that we interpret as the equilibrium solution). It follows that the most probable cycle
is well represented by a van der Pol oscillator limit curve (equilibrium solution), as can be derived from mean-field dynamo
theory. This analysis also retrieves the empirical Gnevyshev – Ohl’s rule between the first and second parts of the solar
magnetic cycle. The sunspot number evolution corresponding to the most probable cycle (in phase space) is presented. 相似文献
9.
R. Arlt 《Solar physics》2008,247(2):399-410
Original drawings by J.C. Staudacher made in the period of 1749 – 1796 were digitized. The drawings provide information about
the size of the sunspots and are therefore useful for analyses sensitive to sunspot area rather than Wolf numbers. The total
sunspot area as a function of time is shown for the observing period. The sunspot areas measured do not support the proposition
of a weak, “lost” cycle between cycles 4 and 5. We also evaluate the usefulness of the drawings for the determination of sunspot
positions for future studies. 相似文献
10.
We study a time – latitudinal distribution of CMEs observed by the SOHO spacecraft, their projected speeds and associated
magnetic fields, as well as the north – south (N – S) asymmetry of solar surface magnetic fields, and the coronal green line
intensities. We have found that (a) there exists an intricate relation between the average projected velocity of CMEs and
the mean value of large-scale magnetic fields; (b) there exists a pronounced N – S asymmetry in both the distribution and
the number of CMEs; (c) this asymmetry is in favor of the northern hemisphere at the beginning of the cycle, and of the southern
hemisphere from 2001 onward, being, in fact, (d) closely related with the N – S asymmetry in the distribution of large-scale
magnetic fields and the coronal green line intensities. 相似文献
11.
This paper presents a new approach for describing the shape of 11-year sunspot cycles by considering the monthly averaged
values. This paper also brings out a prediction model based on the analysis of 22 sunspot cycles from the year 1749 onward.
It is found that the shape of the sunspot cycles with monthly averaged values can be described by a functional form of modified
binary mixture of Laplace density functions, modified suitably by introducing two additional parameters in the standard functional
form. The six parameters, namely two locations, two scales, and two area parameters, characterize this model. The nature of
the estimated parameters for the sunspot cycles from 1749 onward has been analyzed and finally we arrived at a sufficient
set of the parameters for the proposed model. It is seen that this model picks up the sunspot peaks more closely than any
other model without losing the match at other places at the same time. The goodness of fit for the proposed model is also
computed with the Hathaway – Wilson – Reichmann
measure, which shows, on average, that the fitted model passes within 0.47 standard deviations of the actual averaged monthly
sunspot numbers. 相似文献
12.
According to research results from solar-dynamo models, the northern and southern hemispheres may evolve separately throughout
the solar cycle. The observed phase lag between the northern and southern hemispheres provides information regarding how strongly
the hemispheres are coupled. Using hemispheric sunspot-area and sunspot-number data from Cycles 12 – 23, we determine how
out of phase the separate hemispheres are during the rising, maximum, and declining period of each solar cycle. Hemispheric
phase differences range from 0 – 11, 0 – 14, and 2 – 19 months for the rising, maximum, and declining periods, respectively.
The phases appear randomly distributed between zero months (in phase) and half of the rise (or decline) time of the solar
cycle. An analysis of the sunspot cycle double peak, or Gnevyshev gap, is conducted to determine if the double-peak is caused
by the averaging of two hemispheres that are out of phase. We confirm previous findings that the Gnevyshev gap is a phenomenon
that occurs in the separate hemispheres and is not due to a superposition of sunspot indices from hemispheres slightly out
of phase. Cross hemispheric coupling could be strongest at solar minimum, when there are large quantities of magnetic flux
at the Equator. We search for a correlation between the hemispheric phase difference near the end of the solar cycle and the
length of solar-cycle minimum, but found none. Because magnetic flux diffusion across the Equator is a mechanism by which
the hemispheres couple, we measured the magnetic flux crossing the Equator by examining Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and SOLIS
magnetograms for Solar Cycles 21 – 23. We find, on average, a surplus of northern hemisphere magnetic flux crossing during
the mid-declining phase of each solar cycle. However, we find no correlation between magnitude of magnetic flux crossing the
Equator, length of solar minima, and phase lag between the hemispheres. 相似文献
13.
L. A. Plyusnina 《Solar physics》2010,261(2):223-232
There are two types of active longitudes (ALs) in terms of the distribution of sunspot areas: long-lived and intra-cyclic
ALs. The rotation period of the long-lived ALs has been determined by a new method in this paper. The method is based on the
property of ALs to be maintained over several cycles of solar activity. The daily values of sunspot areas for 1878 – 2005
are analyzed. It is shown that the AL positions remain almost constant over a period of about ten cycles, from cycle 13 to
cycle 22. The rotation period was found to be 27.965 days during this period. The dispersion in AL positions is about 26°
from cycle to cycle, which is half of the dispersion observed in the Carrington system. The ALs in the growth phase of the
activity cycle are more stable and pronounced. The excess in solar activity in the ALs over adjacent longitudinal intervals
is about 12 – 14%. It is shown that only one long-lived AL can be observed at one time on the Sun, as a rule. 相似文献
14.
Fluctuations of Solar Activity during the Declining Phase of the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):163-168
The number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupting from the Sun follows a trend similar to that of sunspot numbers during
the rising and maximum phase of the solar cycle. In the declining phase, the CME number has large fluctuations, dissimilar
to those of sunspot numbers. In several studies of solar – interplanetary and solar – terrestrial relationships, the sunspot
numbers and the 2800-MHz flux (F10) are used as representative of solar activity. In the rising phase, this may be adequate,
but in the declining phase, solar parameters such as CMEs may have a different behaviour. Cosmic-ray Forbush decreases may
occur even when sunspot activity is low. Therefore, when studying the solar influence on the Earth, one has to consider that
although geomagnetic conditions at solar maximum will be disturbed, conditions at solar minimum may not be necessarily quiet. 相似文献
15.
The north – south asymmetries (NSA) of three solar activity indices are derived and mutually compared over a period of more
than five solar cycles (1945 – 2001). A catalogue of the hemispheric sunspot numbers, the data set of the coronal green line
brightness developed by us, and the magnetic flux derived from the NSO/KP data (1975 – 2001) are treated separately within
the discrete low- and mid-latitude zones (5° – 30°, 35° – 60°). The calculated autocorrelations, cross-correlations, and regressions
between the long-term NSA data sets reveal regularities in the solar activity phenomenon. Namely, the appearance of a distinct
quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is evident in all selected activity indices. Nevertheless, a smooth behavior of QBO is derived
only when sufficient temporal averaging is performed over solar cycles. The variation in the significance and periodicity
of QBO allows us to conclude that the QBO is not persistent over the whole solar cycle. A similarity in the photospheric and
coronal manifestations of the NSA implies that their mutual relation will also show the QBO. A roughly two-year periodicity
is actually obtained, but again only after significant averaging over solar cycles. The derived cross-correlations are in
fact variable in degree of correlation as well as in changing periodicity. A clear and significant temporal shift of 1 – 2
months in the coronal manifestation of the magnetic flux asymmetry relative to the photospheric manifestation is revealed
as a main property of their mutual correlation. This shift can be explained by the delayed large-scale coronal manifestation
in responding to the emergence of the magnetic flux in the photosphere. The reliability of the derived results was confirmed
by numerical tests performed by selecting different numerical values of the used parameters. 相似文献
16.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,245(2):415-421
The occurrence of double peaks near the maximum of sunspot activity was first emphasized by Gnevyshev (Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967) for the peak years of solar cycle 19 (1954 – 1964). In the present analysis, it is shown that double peaks in sunspot numbers
were clearly visible in solar latitudes 10 – 30° N but almost absent in the southern latitudes, where some single peaks were
observed out of phase by several months from any of the peaks in the northern latitudes. The spacing between the double peaks
increased from higher to lower northern latitudes, hinting at latitudinal migration. In the next cycle 20 (1965 – 1976), which
was of about half the strength of cycle 19, no clear-cut double peaks were seen, and the prominent peak in the early part
of 1967 in the northern latitudes was seen a few months later in the southern latitudes. A direct relationship of Gnevyshev
peaks with changes in the solar polar magnetic fields seems to be dubious. The commencements do not match. 相似文献
17.
Sunspot activity is usually described by either sunspot numbers or sunspot areas. The smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers
(SNs) and the smoothed monthly mean areas (SAs) in the time interval from November 1874 to September 2007 are used to analyze
their phase synchronization. Both the linear method (fast Fourier transform) and some nonlinear approaches (continuous wavelet
transform, cross-wavelet transform, wavelet coherence, cross-recurrence plot, and line of synchronization) are utilized to
show the phase relation between the two series. There is a high level of phase synchronization between SNs and SAs, but the
phase synchronization is detected only in their low-frequency components, corresponding to time scales of about 7 to 12 years.
Their high-frequency components show a noisy behavior with strong phase mixing. Coherent phase variables should exist only
for a frequency band with periodicities around the dominating 11-year cycle for SNs and SAs. There are some small phase differences
between them. SNs lag SAs during most of the considered time interval, and they are in general more asynchronous around the
minimum and maximum times of a cycle than at the ascending and descending phases. 相似文献
18.
We consider the physical origin of the hemispheric pattern of filament chirality on the Sun. Our 3D simulations of the coronal
field evolution over a period of six months, based on photospheric magnetic measurements, were previously shown to be highly
successful at reproducing observed filament chiralities. In this paper we identify and describe the physical mechanisms responsible
for this success. The key mechanisms are found to be (1) differential rotation of north – south polarity inversion lines,
(2) the shape of bipolar active regions, and (3) evolution of skew over a period of many days. As on the real Sun, the hemispheric
pattern in our simulations holds in a statistical sense. Exceptions arise naturally for filaments in certain locations relative
to bipolar active regions or from interactions among a number of active regions. 相似文献
19.
In this work we describe a technique developed to improve medium-term prediction methods of monthly smoothed sunspot numbers.
Each month, the predictions are updated using the last available observations (see the monthly output in real time at ). The improvement of the predictions is provided by applying an adaptive Kalman filter to the medium-term predictions obtained
by any other method, using the six-monthly mean values of sunspot numbers covering the six months between the last available
value of the 13-month running mean (the starting point for the predictions) and the “current time” (i.e. now). Our technique provides an effective estimate of the sunspot index at the current time. This estimate becomes the new
starting point for the updated prediction that is shifted six months ahead in comparison with the last available 13-month
running mean, and it provides an increase of prediction accuracy. Our technique has been tested on three medium-term prediction
methods that are currently in real-time operation: The McNish–Lincoln method (NGDC), the standard method (SIDC), and the combined
method (SIDC). With our technique, the prediction accuracy for the McNish–Lincoln method is increased by 17 – 30%, for the
standard method by 5 – 21% and for the combined method by 6 – 57%. 相似文献
20.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,243(2):205-217
For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of
a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles.
However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity
in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the
present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted
Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum
may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor
method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever
may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23. 相似文献