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1.
极端事件对人类系统的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
在IPCC特别报告《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》中,极端天气气候事件对人类系统的影响是最重要的影响评估内容之一,其评估结果为：极端影响可能缘于极端天气气候事件,但也可能并非极端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是灾害风险的重要决定因素;极端和非极端天气气候事件的严重程度和影响在很大程度上取决于对这些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社会经济状况的变化已经影响观测到的脆弱性和暴露度的变化趋势;无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,沿海人居环境均暴露于极端事件,并受其影响,如小岛屿国家和亚洲大三角洲地区;脆弱人口还包括难民、国内流离失所的人和那些生活在边远地区的人;极端事件将极大地影响与气候联系密切的部门,如水、农业、食物安全、健康和旅游业。  相似文献   

2.
气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  
 通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。  相似文献   

3.
气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。  相似文献   

4.
This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the Regional Impact Simulator—a user-friendly, PC-based tool designed with stakeholders for stakeholders wishing to assess the effects of climate and/or socio-economic change on the important sectors and resources in the UK at a regional scale, in particular, impacts to coastal and river flooding, agriculture, water resources and biodiversity. While integrated assessments are relatively new, simulators that help stakeholders visualize and think about potential changes in the environment or society at a regional scale are very new. An earlier project, RegIS1, was the first local/regional integrated assessment conducted in the UK. It developed a method for engaging stakeholders in a “stakeholder-led” integrated assessment process. The RegIS2 project developed a simulation tool and followed the same “stakeholder-led” principle in designing and testing the tool. The role of stakeholders in informing the design of the simulator is discussed here, as is a stakeholder evaluation survey on its success in meeting its objectives. We also reflect on the need and desire of stakeholders to have such a tool. And because the Steering Committee – made up of stakeholders – was so invaluable in ensuring the usefulness of research outputs, a series of Steering Committee ‘rules’ is proposed intending to maximise the benefits of this valuable resource. Finally, we outline how our experience with the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ serves as a test-bed for further studies of stakeholder-led, regional, integrated assessment.  相似文献   

5.
The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.  相似文献   

6.

Potential changes in future climate in the Texas Plains region were investigated in the context of agriculture by analyzing three climate model projections under the A2 climate scenario (medium–high emission scenario). Spatially downscaled historic (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) climate datasets (rainfall and temperature) were downloaded from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Climate variables predicted by three regional climate models (RCMs) namely the Regional Climate Model Version3–Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (RCM3-GFDL), Regional Climate Model Version3–Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (RCM3-CGCM3), and Canadian Regional Climate Model–Community Climate System Model (CRCM-CCSM) were evaluated in this study. Gaussian and Gamma distribution mapping techniques were employed to remove the bias in temperature and rainfall data, respectively. Both the minimum and maximum temperatures across the study region in the future showed an upward trend, with the temperatures increasing in the range of 1.9 to 2.9 °C and 2.0 to 3.2 °C, respectively. All three climate models predicted a decline in rainfall within a range of 30 to 127 mm in majority of counties across the study region. In addition, they predicted an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events in the future. The frost-free season as predicted by the three models showed an increase by 2.6–3.4 weeks across the region, and the number of frost days declined by 17.9 to 30 %. Overall, these projections indicate considerable changes to the climate in the Texas Plains region in the future, and these changes could potentially impact agriculture in this region.

  相似文献   

7.
Power plant construction requires anticipation to achieve a liable dimensioning on the long functioning time of the installation. In the present climate change context, dimensioning towards extremely high temperature for installations intended to run until the 2070s or later implies an evaluation of plausible extreme values at this time scale. This study is devoted to such an estimation for France, using both observation series and climate model simulation results. The climate model results are taken from the European PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects) project database of regional climate change scenarios for Europe. Comparison of high summer temperature distributions given by observations and climate models under current climate conditions, conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution, reveals that only a few models are able to correctly reproduce it. For these models, climate change under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios leads to differences in the variability of high values, whose proportion has an important impact on future 100-year return levels. This study was first presented at the EGU General Assembly in Vienna, 2–7 April 2006.  相似文献   

8.
Climate change may affect ocean and ice conditions in coastal oceans and thus have significant impacts on coastal infrastructure, marine navigation, and marine ecosystems. In this study a three-dimensional ice–ocean model is developed to examine likely changes of ocean and ice conditions over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves in response to climate change. The model is configured with a horizontal grid of approximately 7?km and a vertical grid of 46 levels and is run from 1979 to 2069. The projection period is 2011 to 2069 under a median emission scenario A1B used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the projection period, the surface atmospheric forcing fields used are from the Canadian Regional Climate Model over the North Atlantic. The open boundary conditions come from the Canadian Global Climate Model, Version 3 (CGCM3), adjusted for the 1981–2010 mean of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model output. The simulated fields over the 1981–2010 period have patterns consistent with observations. Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4°C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6°C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11?m at the St. John's tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening. The regional ice–ocean model reproduces more realistic present climate conditions and projects considerably different future climate conditions than CGCM3.  相似文献   

9.
Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk.  相似文献   

10.
2014年9月,IPCC联合世界气候研究计划（WCRP）,在瑞士伯尔尼大学召开了一次特别的研讨会,总结过去几年气候变化科学研究中所取得的经验教训。此次会议针对IPCC最新评估报告中的关键不确定性,梳理并总结了未来气候变化研究的主要科学方向和面临的主要挑战,讨论了如何与WCRP计划结合并解决这些问题,以期在未来更好地应对这些挑战。在此次会议上,与会专家提出,未来气候变化科学研究的重大挑战应包括如下8个主题。云、环流与气候敏感度;理解和预测极端天气气候事件;冰冻圈变化;区域气候信息;区域海平面上升及其对沿海地区的影响;水资源可利用量;生物地球化学、气溶胶和大气化学;理解年代际变化：归因与预测。这些主题涵盖了WCRP计划的六大挑战和其他被认为具有挑战性的主题。本文将在此次会议报告的基础上,对相关内容进行介绍,以供当前的气候变化工作参考。  相似文献   

11.
Going to the Extremes   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  
Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments. An erratum to this article is available at . An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

12.
气候变化和水的最新科学认知   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2008年4月8日正式通过了"气候变化和水"技术报告。该报告建立在IPCC 3个工作组第四次评估报告的基础上,客观、全面而审慎地评估了与水有关的气候变化以及对水的过去、现在和未来的认知。最重要的进展是：过去几十年观测到全球变暖已经与大尺度水文循环的大规模变化联系在一起;气候模型对21世纪的模拟结果一致显示出降水在高纬和部分热带地区将增加,而在部分亚热带和中低纬地区将减少的结果;预计到21世纪中期,河流年平均径流和水量可能会因为高纬和部分湿润热带地区的气候变化而增加,而在中低纬和干旱热带将可能减少;许多地方降水强度和变率的增加将使洪旱危险性上升;预计冰雪储藏的水的补给将在本世纪减少;预计较高的水温和极端变化,包括洪旱等,将影响水质并加剧水污染;对全球而言,气候变化对淡水系统负面影响将超过收益;预计由于气候变化导致的水量-水质变化将影响食物的产量、稳定性、流通和利用;气候变化影响现有水的基础设施的功能和运行,包括水电、防洪、排水、灌溉系统,同时影响到水的管理;目前的水管理措施不足以应对气候变化的影响;气候变化挑战"过去水文上的经验能得到未来的情况"的传统说法;为保障平水和干旱情况所设计的适应选择,必须综合需水和供水双方的战略;减缓措施可以降低升温对全球水资源的影响程度,进而减低适应的需求;水资源管理明显地影响到很多其他政策领域。  相似文献   

13.
Climatic conditions such as relatively cold temperatures and dryness are able to limit malaria transmission. Climate change is therefore expected to alter malaria spread. A previous assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the seasonality of malaria in Africa is revisited. Bias-corrected regional climate projections with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° are used from the Regional Model (REMO), which include land use and land cover changes. The malaria model employed is the climate-driven seasonality model (MSM) from the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project for which a comparison with data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), and a novel validation procedure lends more credence to results. For climate scenarios A1B and B1 and for 2001–2050, REMO projects an overall drying and warming trend in the African malaria belt, that is largely imposed by the man-made degradation of vegetation. As a result, the malaria projections of the MSM show a decreased length of the malaria season in West Africa. The northern Sahel is no more longer suitable for malaria in the projections and shorter malaria seasons are expected for various areas farther south. In East Africa, higher temperatures and nearly unchanged precipitation patterns lead to longer transmission seasons and an increase in highland malaria. Assuming constant population numbers, an overall increase in person-months of exposure of up to 6 % is found. The results of this simple seasonality model are similar to previous projections from the more complex LMM. However, a different response to the warming of highlands is found for the two models. It is concluded that the MSM is an efficient tool to assess the climate-driven malaria seasonality and that an uncertainty analysis of future malaria spread would benefit from a multi-model approach.  相似文献   

14.
Could users of climate information for impact assessment be overlooking an important source of information in climate indicators? We argue that indexes of leading climate indicators of impacts may be usable knowledge for consumers and may provide guidance to the global climate observing community concerning the types of data and information that users need. Five classes of indexes are suggested: Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI) - such are already available from scientists at the U.S. National Climatic Data Center -plus proposed indexes of Hazard Warning, Ecosystem Health, and Energy Demand and Renewable Natural Resources. We conclude that the CEI and GCRI possess several necessary attributes to become usable knowledge; the other indexes have the potential to become usable knowledge, but remain to be implemented with climate data and fully evaluated.  相似文献   

15.
Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.  相似文献   

16.
Climate change could have significant impacts on hydrology. This paper uses UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) products to assess the impacts on flood frequency in Britain. The main UKCP09 product comprises conditional probabilistic information on changes in a number of climate variables on a 25?×?25?km grid across the UK (the Sampled Data change factors). A second product is a Weather Generator which produces time-series of current weather variables and future weather variables based on the Sampled Data and consistent with the change factors. A third product comprises time-series from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble which were used to downscale Global Climate Models (GCMs) on which the projections are based and whose outputs were used in the production of the Sampled Data. This paper compares the use of Sampled Data change factors, Weather Generator time-series, RCM-derived change factors and RCM time-series. Each is used to provide hydrological model inputs for nine catchments, to assess impacts for the 2080s (A1B emissions). The results show relatively good agreement between methods for most catchments, with the four median values for a catchment generally being within 10% of each other. There are also some clear differences, with the use of time-series generally leading to a greater uncertainty range than the use of change factors because the latter do not allow for the effects of, or changes in, natural variability. Also, the use of Weather Generator time-series leads to much greater impacts than the other methods for one catchment. The results suggest that climate impact studies should not necessarily rely on the application of just one UKCP09 product, as each has different strengths and weaknesses.  相似文献   

17.
Climate change has the potential ability to alter the occurrence and severity of extreme events. Though predicting changes of such extreme events is difficult, understanding them is important to determine the impacts of climate change in various sectors. This paper presents the change in rainfall extremes in the monsoon season in south-west Indian peninsula. Daily rainfall data were analysed for the entire Kerala state in India to determine if the extreme rainfall had changed over the 50-year period. Several indices were derived from the data to identify the extreme rainfalls. The trends of all the extreme indices were assessed by parametric ordinary least square regression technique, which were tested for significance at 95% level. Results showed significant decrease in monsoon rainfall extremes in Kerala that would affect the tendency of change in seasonal total rainfall. This study provides a comprehensive knowledge on extreme monsoon precipitation in Kerala, which could also be employed to study changing climate at local scale in other regions.  相似文献   

18.
Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’ (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.  相似文献   

19.
We evaluate the capacity of a regional climate model to represent observed extreme temperature and precipitation events and also examine the impact of increased resolution, in an effort to identify added value in this respect. Two climate simulations of western Canada (WCan) were conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4) at 15 (CRCM15) and 45?km (CRCM45) horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) for the period 1973–1995. The simulations were evaluated using the spline-interpolated dataset ANUSPLIN, a daily observational gridded surface temperature and precipitation product with a nominal resolution of approximately 10?km. We examine a range of climate extremes, comprising the 10th and 90th percentiles of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures, the 90th percentile of daily precipitation (PR90), and the 27 core Climate Daily Extremes (CLIMDEX) indices.

Both simulations exhibit cold biases compared with observations over WCan, with the bias exacerbated at higher resolution, suggesting little added value for temperature overall. There are instances, however, of regional improvement in the spatial pattern of temperature extremes at the higher resolution of CRCM15 (e.g., the CLIMDEX index for the annual number of days when TX?>?25°C). The high-resolution simulations also reveal similarly localized features in precipitation (e.g., rain shadows) that are not resolved at the 45?km resolution. With regard to precipitation extremes, although both simulations generally display wet biases, CRCM15 features a reduced bias in PR90 in all seasons except winter. This improvement occurs despite the fact that spatial and interannual variability of PR90 in CRCM15 is significantly overestimated relative to both CRCM45 and ANUSPLIN. We posit that these characteristics are the result of demonstrable differences between corresponding topographical datasets used in the gridded observations and CRCM, the resulting errors propagated to physical variables tied to elevation and the beneficial effect of subsequent spatial averaging. Because topographical input is often discordant between simulations and gridded observations, it is argued that a limited form of spatial averaging may contribute added value beyond that which has already been noted in previous studies with respect to small-scale climate variability.  相似文献   

20.
Vizy  Edward K.  Cook  Kerry H.  Chimphamba  James  McCusker  Brent 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(5-6):1673-1698
Climate Dynamics - Regional climate model projections at 30-km resolution are used to predict future mid-century and late-century growing season changes over Malawi due to global warming under the...  相似文献   

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