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1.
V. P. Dymnikov V. N. Lykosov E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2006,42(5):568-585
The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible. 相似文献
2.
Charles A. Stock Michael A. Alexander Nicholas A. Bond Keith M. Brander William W.L. Cheung Enrique N. Curchitser Thomas L. Delworth John P. Dunne Stephen M. Griffies Melissa A. Haltuch Jonathan A. Hare Anne B. Hollowed Patrick Lehodey Simon A. Levin Jason S. Link Kenneth A. Rose Ryan R. Rykaczewski Jorge L. Sarmiento Ronald J. Stouffer Franklin B. Schwing Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27
The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models. 相似文献
3.
Communicating climate change: Climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers, Tasmania 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Melissa Nursey-Bray G.T. PeclS. Frusher C. GardnerM. Haward A.J. HobdayS. Jennings A.E. PuntH. Revill I. van Putten 《Marine Policy》2012,36(3):753-759
World fisheries, already vulnerable, are under increasing pressure from the impacts of climate change. Using the Tasmanian rock lobster industry as a case study, we considered the efficacy of risk perception as a tool to inform how to communicate the science of climate change and suggestions for management in relation to development of adaptation strategies for fisheries. Fishers surveyed in this study operate in a fishery that is expected to undergo large changes as a consequence of climate change. Fishers also reported observations of similar large changes in the marine environment and lobster fishery consistent with climate change; yet most fishers surveyed expressed doubts about whether climate change was a real process. The important point for adaption of the industry to climate change is that fisher perceptions of risk tended to create barriers to acceptance of climate change as an issue. This means that there is a barrier to communication and awareness about climate change and thus a barrier to future action on the issue. Improving acceptance of climate change and thus ability to adapt will require the development of communications that are culturally appropriate and palatable to fishers. We argue that the application of social learning principles in communications about climate change may be one constructive way forward. 相似文献
4.
全球气候变化研究最显著的成果之一,就是确定了气候可以在全球范围内突然发生变化,例如第四纪冰期旋回及全新世千年尺度的气候波动。了解和掌握这种快速气候变化的特征和驱动机制对于研究和预测人类生存环境的变化趋势和全球气候变化至关重要。研究发现,这种千年尺度的快速气候变动不仅见于冰心和北大西洋高纬区,而且在热带海区也有记录;现代热带大洋在全球气候系统中,尤其是千年尺度的快速气候变化中起着关键作用,类似现代厄尔尼诺—南方涛动的热带海洋—大气系统的变化,可能是冰期千年尺度古气候事件的根源所在。由于南海的特殊地理位置,快速气候变化事件在南海有大量的高分辨率沉积记录,是我国研究全球变化区域响应及其驱动力的天然试验场。 相似文献
5.
根据野外调查、土层厚度测定、室内粒度分析、CaCO3含量分析和微结构鉴定资料,研究了西安地区约8500aBP来气候变化与风尘堆积的变化。结果表明,西安地区全新世以来的气候与末次间冰期第1阶段气候相比具有频繁变化和变异特点;3100aBP以来风尘堆积与沙尘暴活动比75～10kaBP之间的末次冰期还要强,风尘堆积与沙尘暴活动强的原因主要是气候的变干。全新世黄土发育条件分析表明,黄土高原的黄土可以发育在冰期,也可以发育在与现代气候相近的间冰期,可以发育在冬季风占优势的气候条件下,也可以发育在冬、夏季风活动强度相近的条件下。全新世气候的不稳定性为预测未来长期气候变化带来了不确定性,深入研究全新世气候变异特点对预测未来长期气候变化具有非常重要的意义。 相似文献
6.
Zhenghong Tang Samuel D. BrodyRuopu Li Courtney QuinnNan Zhao 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(5):415-426
Local jurisdictions play a critical role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study analyzes the theoretical framework of locally driven climate change actions and uses geographic information system (GIS) to map local jurisdictions’ climate change policy efforts in three Pacific states - California, Oregon, and Washington. The results of our study indicate statistically significant differences in geographic clusters and variations across jurisdictions. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model was used to examine climate risk, emission stress, and socioeconomic context variables to detect influence on local climate change policy efforts. The explanatory results indicate that coastal proximity, population density, vehicles emission, and education variables significantly influence local jurisdictions’ climate change actions. The findings contribute to local organizational decision model research and can help local communities to develop more effective climate change policies. 相似文献
7.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is a project of the intergovernmental Arctic Council, intended to synthesize knowledge of the effects of climate change on the Arctic. This paper is based on the primary output of the ACIA project, a 1042 page book entitled Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Our concern is with the effects of Arctic climate change on fisheries. To set the stage, however, we first discuss those chapters that logically precede the fisheries discussion, the chapters concerned with past and present climate change, climate modeling and marine systems. The conclusion notes that moderate climate warming will probably benefit most Arctic fisheries. The conclusion also considers the role of anthropogenic causation in climate change and its policy implications. 相似文献
8.
O. A. Deshcherevskaya V. K. Avilov Ba Duy Dinh Cong Huan Tran J. A. Kurbatova 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2013,49(8):819-838
A method of using the standard network weather station data for local ecosystem research is considered on the example of the modern climate of the Cát Tiên National Park (Southern Vietnam) and local climate change in 1980–2010. Special attention is focused on the environmental parameters, which play a role of the limiting factors. It is shown that the climate of Southern Vietnam responds with statistical significance to global climate change. Suggestions about the possible reactions of tropical monsoon forest ecosystem to climate change are given. 相似文献
9.
2万年来我国东部海陆环境变化的不同步现象 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
冲绳海槽DG9603孔高分辨率的硅藻、有孔虫、孢粉和植物硅酸体化石的记录，提供了联系海洋与陆地气候变化的直接证据。结果显示，中国东部及邻海区最近20kaBP以来海洋环境的文化滞后陆地气候的变化约1000a，初步认为这种滞后现象可能是北半球陆地气候快速变化的同步性和温盐环流从北大西洋缓慢传送到太平洋海域的时间差引起的。 相似文献
10.
《Marine Policy》2013
Integrated coastal management (ICM) has been developing concomitantly with the realisation of the severity of the potential impacts of climate change. The discourse on climate change and adaptation has also included the awareness that adaptation must take place at all levels of government, particularly local government. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the physical, social, environmental and economic environments of coastal cities and towns, and in particular on the poor and vulnerable communities within these cities and towns. The crucial role that local government can play in climate protection and building cities' and communities' resilience to climate change is widely recognised at the global level. This paper explores the legal and policy connexion between ICM, local government and climate change in Mozambique and South Africa, two developing countries in Africa. The state of institutionalisation of coastal management at national through to local government is also examined. The authors contend that the state, character and maturity of the ICM policy domain can create an enabling environment within which local government agencies can prepare for future impacts of climate change. Conversely it can also limit, delay and hinder climate change adaptation. The paper concludes with the identification of some key success factors for assessing the effectiveness of the existing policy and legal frameworks to respond to the challenges of climate change. It also identifies some key principles to be included in future legislative reform to promote ICM, cooperative governance and greater preparedness for climate change at local government level. 相似文献
11.
There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts. 相似文献
12.
V. A. Ryabchenko L. N. Karlin A. V. Isaev R. E. Vankevich T. R. Eremina M. S. Molchanov O. P. Savchuk 《Oceanology》2016,56(1):36-45
The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming. 相似文献
13.
Understanding fishermen's perspectives and responses relating to climate variability is important for sustainable fisheries management. To this end, a survey of captains of commercial passenger fishing vessels (CPFVs) was conducted in San Diego. The survey demonstrates that fishermen have observed and adapted to changes in the environment and fish populations associated with climate variability. However, only 12.9% of respondents agreed that global climate change is a possibility. In order to explain fishermen's divergent beliefs on climate change, a semiparametric discrete choice model is used to identify the potential determinants. The empirical results highlight the importance of the following factors: fishermen's experience, observations of the phenomena that are associated with climate variability, and an interaction of fishermen's experience and their observations. 相似文献
14.
15.
Jan-Olaf Meynecke Shing Yip Lee Norman C. Duke Jan Warnken 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,69(3-4):491
The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries, thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate change impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. 相似文献
16.
全球气候变化影响着海洋生态系统的多个方面,而鱼类群落结构对气候变化的响应机制是探索海洋生态系统演变规律的关键点之一。本文结合国内外相关研究成果,概述了气候变化引起的温度、盐度、CO2浓度、海平面高度、溶解氧以及海流等的改变对鱼类群落结构的影响,并以太平洋十年涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)和厄尔尼诺−南方涛动(El Niño Southern Oscillation,ENSO)等典型气候现象为例,探讨了鱼类群落对典型气候现象的响应,讨论了需要解决的重点问题,以期为科学应对气候变化和制定海洋生物多样性保护策略提供依据。 相似文献
17.
《Ocean Modelling》2000,2(3-4):123-192
This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms. 相似文献
18.
In this study, future changes in regional extreme wave heights around the Korean Peninsula are projected by using the results of an atmosphere general circulation model and a third-generation wave model. The direct use of the model output at each grid point is not appropriate even though high resolution of 20 km is used for the models. Therefore, the model output is grouped into six regions around the Korean Peninsula. The grouping approach is reasonable in assessing climate change effects with alleviated model uncertainty. The extreme wave heights are simulated for two climate periods of 1979–2003 (present climate) and 2075–2099 (future climate). The model results are validated by comparing the simulated wave heights for the present climate with observed and hindcasted wave data. The extreme wave heights for the future climate are then projected for different seasons and in different regions. The 50-year return wave height in summer is projected to increase in most regions, especially in the high-latitude Yellow Sea and the East Sea, while the wave height in winter is projected to decrease in all the regions, especially in the East Sea. 相似文献
19.
晚第三纪以来黄土高原风积序列的压实校正及其古气候意义 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
晚第三纪以来黄土高原完整连续、高分辨率的风尘堆积序列为研究以冬、夏季风组合为特征的东亚季风环流长期演化提供了很好的气候信息载体。利用高压固结试验结果,基于高分辨申的磁化率和容重测量及相关性分析,初步探讨了黄土、古土壤及红粘土不同地层单元的压缩特性,校正了压实作用对容重的影响,获得了更真实的东亚季风气候演化信息。有助于深入探讨晚第三纪以未东亚李凤阶段性演化特征及其与太阳辐射、全球冰量变化、青藏高原阶段性隆升等气候控制因子之间的密切关系。 相似文献
20.
热带西太平洋大气气候基本态与厄尔尼诺期间赤道附近西风异常 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
利用合成分析的方法分析了自1961年以来观测到的8次厄尔尼诺事件中赤道西太平洋地区西风异常与大气气候基本态的关系,结果发现厄尔尼诺年赤道西太平洋地区西风异常具有和大气气候基本态相一致的季节变化特征.利用一个简单热带海-气耦合模式较好地模拟出了观测到的厄尔尼诺年赤道西太平洋地区西风异常的变化特征.对模式结果的分析表明,大气气候基本态对厄尔尼诺年赤道西太平洋地区西风异常的形成起重要作用,它是通过影响大气模式中的加热场来影响赤道西太平洋地区西风异常.大气模式中赤道太平洋地区的加热场的形成具有阶段性和地区性,在厄尔尼诺事件的初始阶段,大气气候基本态是大气模式中的加热场形成的主要因子,而在厄尔尼诺事件的发展和成熟阶段,赤道中东太平洋地区的海表温度异常(SSTA)是加热场形成的主要因子.模式模拟结果对大气气候基本态依赖的敏感性试验说明,在大气模式加热场中含有大气气候基本态的模拟中,沿中西太平洋赤道附近的纬向风异常表现出和观测类似的传播特征. 相似文献