共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
K. M. Hiremath 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,314(1-3):45-49
In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755–1996), long-term
amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles
and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar
cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during
the period 2008.57±0.17 (i.e., around May–September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period
and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles.
Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and
amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030–2042 AD), 27 (2042–2054 AD), 34
(2118–2127 AD), 37 (2152–2163 AD) and 38 (2163–2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun
might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089–2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar
cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35. 相似文献
2.
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and we conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97±15, to occur in January??C?February 2014 ± six months. 相似文献
3.
Search for relationship between duration of the extended solar cycles and amplitude of sunspot cycle
A.G. Tlatov 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2007,328(10):1027-1029
Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the minimum of the cycle n + 2. The connection between cycle duration and its amplitude is established. Duration of the “latent” period of evolution of extended cycle between reversals and a minimum of the current sunspot cycle is entered. It is shown, that the latent period of cycles evolution is connected with the next sunspot cycle amplitude and can be used for the prognosis of a level and time of a sunspot maximum. The 24th activity cycle prognosis is made. The found dependences correspond to transport dynamo model of generation of solar cyclicity, it is possible with various speed of meridional circulation. Long-term behavior of extended cycle's lengths and connection with change of a climate of the Earth is considered. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
4.
Wauters L. Dominique M. Milligan R. Dammasch I. E. Kretzschmar M. Machol J. 《Solar physics》2022,297(3):1-22
In most of the solar cycles, activity in the northern and southern hemispheres peaks at different times. One hemisphere peaks well before the other, and at least one of the hemispheric maxima frequently does not coincide with the whole sphere maximum. Prediction of the maximum of a hemisphere and the corresponding north–south asymmetry of a solar cycle may help to understand the mechanisms of the solar cycle, the solar-terrestrial relationship, and solar-activity influences on space weather. Here we analysed the sunspot-group data from the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874?–?1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977?–?2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in the whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12?–?24 and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12?–?24 (note that solar-cycle variation of a parameter is expressed as a cycle of that parameter). The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of sunspot, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12?–?24, and to the values of the corresponding north–south asymmetry, suggest the existence of a ≈132-year periodicity in the activity of the northern hemisphere, a 54?–?66-year periodicity in the activity of the southern hemisphere, and a 50?–?66 year periodicity in the north–south asymmetry in activity at all the aforementioned epochs. By extrapolating the best-fit cosine curves we predicted the amplitudes and the corresponding north–south asymmetry of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles. We find that on average Solar Cycle 25 in sunspot-group area would be to some extent smaller than Solar Cycle 24 in sunspot-group area. However, by inputting the predicted amplitudes of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles relationship between sunspot-group area and sunspot number we find that the amplitude (\(130\pm 12\)) of Sunspot Cycle 25 would be slightly larger than that of reasonably small Sunspot Cycle 24. Still it confirms that the beginning of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle would take place around Solar Cycle 25. We also find that except at the maximum of NSGA Cycle 25 where the strength of activity in the northern hemisphere would be dominant, the strength of activity in the southern hemisphere would be dominant at the maximum epochs of the 25th sunspot, WSGA, and SSGA cycles.
相似文献5.
In the present work, the phase relation between activities of solar active prominences respectively at low and high latitudes in the period 1957–1998 has been studied. We found that from the solar equator to the solar poles, the activity of the solar active prominences occurs earlier at higher latitudes, and that the cycle of the solar active prominences at high latitudes (larger than 50°) leads by 4 years both the sunspot cycle and the corresponding cycle of the solar active prominences at low latitudes (less than 40°). 相似文献
6.
A new index, the cumulative difference of sunspot activity in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, is proposed
to describe the long-term behavior of the North – South asymmetry of sunspot activity and to show the balance (or bias) of
sunspot activity in the two solar hemispheres on a long-term scale. Sunspot groups and sunspot areas from June 1874 to January
2007 are used to show the advantage of the index. The index clearly shows a long-term characteristic time scale of about 12
cycles in the North – South asymmetry of sunspot activity. Sunspot activity is found to dominate in the southern hemisphere
in cycle 23, and in cycle 24 it is predicted to dominate still in the southern hemisphere. A comparison of the new index with
other similar indexes is also given. 相似文献
7.
The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012. 相似文献
8.
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting
the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual
mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be
less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the
descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8. 相似文献
9.
The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot
areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions
of time from each sunspot cycle maximum, there appear to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift
rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions
of time from each sunspot cycle minimum, then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear.
The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as
much as eight months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this
starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although
Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation
from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with dynamo
wave mechanisms but not consistent with current flux transport dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones. 相似文献
10.
The large-scale structure of the solar magnetic field during the past five sunspot cycles (representing by implication a much longer interval of time) has been investigated using the polarity (toward or away from the Sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field as inferred from polar geomagnetic observations. The polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has previously been shown to be closely related to the polarity (into or out of the Sun) of the large-scale solar magnetic field. It appears that a solar structure with four sectors per rotation persisted through the past five sunspot cycles with a synodic rotation period near 27.0 days, and a small relative westward drift during the first half of each sunspot cycle and a relative eastward drift during the second half of each cycle. Superposed on this four-sector structure there is another structure with inward field polarity, a width in solar longitude of about 100° and a synodic rotation period of about 28 to 29 days. This 28.5 day structure is usually most prominent during a few years near sunspot maximum. Some preliminary comparisons of these observed solar structures with theoretical considerations are given. 相似文献
11.
R. S. Dabas Kavita Sharma Rupesh M. Das K. G. M. Pillai Parvati Chopra N. K. Sethi 《Solar physics》2008,250(1):171-181
Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days
when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks
1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of
the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the
best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted
and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude
of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011. 相似文献
12.
《New Astronomy》2007,12(1):29-32
A weak 5-cycle periodicity (r = −0.64) is found in the maximum amplitudes of the modern era sunspot cycles (11–23), slightly stronger than the 8-cycle (Gleissberg) periodicity (r = 0.60).We propose a new parameter called ‘effective duration’, defined as the total sunspot numbers in a cycle divided by the maximum amplitude. This parameter has two advantages: one is that it is almost independent of the exact definition of minimum timing; another is that the maximum amplitude is found to be highly correlated (r = 0.86) with this parameter five cycles before, when applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers in modern era.Implied is that this parameter carries some information of the amplitude five cycles later, and may become one of the parameters to study solar activity and the theory of solar dynamo. With the relationship above, the amplitude of cycle 24 is estimated to be 115.7 ± 19.7, where the error is the standard error. 相似文献
13.
Surface magnetic fields during the solar activity cycle 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We examine magnetic field measurements from Mount Wilson that cover the solar surface over a 13 1/2 year interval, from 1967 to mid-1980. Seen in long-term averages, the sunspot latitudes are characterized by fields of preceding polarity, while the polar fields are built up by a few discrete flows of following polarity fields. These drift speeds average about 10 m s-1 in latitude - slower early in the cycle and faster later in the cycle - and result from a large-scale poleward displacement of field lines, not diffusion. Weak field plots show essentially the same pattern as the stronger fields, and both data indicate that the large-scale field patterns result only from fields emerging at active region latitudes. The total magnetic flux over the solar surface varies only by a factor of about 3 from minimum to a very strong maximum (1979). Magnetic flux is highly concentrated toward the solar equator; only about 1% of the flux is at the poles. Magnetic flux appears at the solar surface at a rate which is sufficient to create all the flux that is seen at the solar surface within a period of only 10 days. Flux can spread relatively rapidly over the solar surface from outbreaks of activity. This is presumably caused by diffusion. In general, magnetic field lines at the photospheric level are nearly radial.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands. 相似文献
14.
We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24. 相似文献
15.
1 ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅｉｓｕｓｕａｌｌｙｄｅｓｃｒｉｂｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓ.Ａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｏｆｈｉｓ ｔｏｒｉｃａｌｄａｔａｏｎｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓｈａｖｅｒｅｖｅａｌｅｄａｗｅａｌｔｈｏｆｉｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅ (ＨｏｎｇＱｉｎｆａｎｇ 1 990 ,1 994;ＺｈｏｎｇＳｈｕｈｕａ 1 991 ,1 995 ) .Ｔｈｅｓｏ ｃａｌｌｅｄ 1 1 ｙｅａｒｐｅ ｒｉｏ… 相似文献
16.
M. I. Pishkalo 《Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies》2013,29(1):37-43
Correlations are investigated between the pattern of solar activity described by the smoothed monthly relative sunspot numbers (Wolf numbers) near the minimum of a solar cycle and the cycle amplitude. The closest correlation is found between the amplitude of a solar cycle and the sum of the decrease in activity over two years prior to the cycle minimum and the increase in activity over two years after the minimum; the correlation coefficient between these parameters is 0.92. This parameter is used as a precursor to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 24, which is expected to reach its maximum amplitude (85 ± 12) in February 2014. Based on the correlations between the mean parameters of solar cycles, cycle 24 is expected to last for approximately 11.3 years and the minimum of the next cycle 25 is predicted for May 2020. 相似文献
17.
We examine the `Group' sunspot numbers constructed by Hoyt and Schatten to determine their utility in characterizing the solar activity cycle. We compare smoothed monthly Group sunspot numbers to Zürich (International) sunspot numbers, 10.7-cm radio flux, and total sunspot area. We find that the Zürich numbers follow the 10.7-cm radio flux and total sunspot area measurements only slightly better than the Group numbers. We examine several significant characteristics of the sunspot cycle using both Group numbers and Zürich numbers. We find that the `Waldmeier Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the elapsed time between minimum and maximum of a cycle – is much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Period Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the length of the previous cycle from minimum to minimum – is also much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Minimum Effect' – the correlation between cycle amplitude and the activity level at the previous (onset) minimum is equally apparent in both the Zürich numbers and the Group numbers. The `Even–Odd Effect' – in which odd-numbered cycles are larger than their even-numbered precursors – is somewhat stronger in the Group numbers but with a tighter relationship in the Zürich numbers. The `Secular Trend' – the increase in cycle amplitudes since the Maunder Minimum – is much stronger in Group numbers. After removing this trend we find little evidence for multi-cycle periodicities like the 80-year Gleissberg cycle or the two- and three-cycle periodicities. We also find little evidence for a correlation between the amplitude of a cycle and its period or for a bimodal distribution of cycle periods. We conclude that the Group numbers are most useful for extending the sunspot cycle data further back in time and thereby adding more cycles and improving the statistics. However, the Zürich numbers are slightly more useful for characterizing the on-going levels of solar activity. 相似文献
18.
The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of ground-based super neutron monitor stations, situated in different latitudes, have been employed to study the characteristics of the long-term variation of cosmic-ray diurnal anisotropy for a long (44-year) period (1965?–?2008). Some of these super neutron monitors are situated in low latitudes with high cutoff rigidity. Annual averages of the diurnal amplitudes and phases have been obtained for each station. It is found that the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar activity cycle (11 years), whereas the diurnal phase varies with a period of 22 years (one solar magnetic cycle). The average diurnal amplitudes and phases have also been calculated by grouping the days on the basis of ascending and descending periods of each solar cycle (Cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23). Systematic and significant differences are observed in the characteristics of the diurnal variation between the descending periods of the odd and even solar cycles. The overall vector averages of the descending periods of the even solar cycles (20 and 22) show significantly smaller diurnal amplitudes compared to the vector averages of the descending periods of the odd solar cycles (21 and 23). In contrast, we find a large diurnal phase shift to earlier hours only during the descending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22), as compared to almost no shift in the diurnal phase during the descending periods of odd solar cycles. Further, the overall vector average diurnal amplitudes of the ascending period of odd and even solar cycles remain invariant from one ascending period to the other, or even between the even and odd solar cycles. However, we do find a significant diurnal phase shift to earlier hours during the ascending periods of odd solar cycles (21 and 23) in comparison to the diurnal phase in the ascending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22). 相似文献
19.
Neeraj Singh Bankoti Navin Chandra Joshi Bimal Pande Seema Pande Wahab Uddin Kavita Pandey 《New Astronomy》2011,16(4):269-275
This paper presents the study of normalized north–south asymmetry, cumulative normalized north–south asymmetry and cumulative difference indices of sunspot areas, solar active prominences (at total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes) and Hα solar flares from 1964 to 2008 spanning the solar cycles 20–23. Three different statistical methods are used to obtain the asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features. Hemispherical distribution of activity features shows the dominance of activities in northern hemisphere for solar cycle 20 and in southern hemisphere for solar cycles 21–23 excluding solar active prominences at high latitudes. Cumulative difference index of solar activity features in each solar cycle is observed at the maximum of the respective solar cycle suggesting a cyclic behavior of approximately one solar cycle length. Asymmetric behavior of all activity features except solar active prominences at high latitudes hints at the long term periodic trend of eight solar cycles. North–south asymmetries of SAP (H) express the specific behavior of solar activity at high solar latitudes and its behavior in long-time scale is distinctly opposite to those of other activity features. Our results show that in most cases the asymmetry is statistically highly significant meaning thereby that the asymmetries are real features in the N–S distribution of solar activity features. 相似文献
20.
Sunspot drawings obtained at National Astronomical Observatory of Japan during the years 1954–1986 were used to determine the differential rotation of the Sun. From the limited data set of three solar cycles it was found that three factors (the level of cycle activity, the cycle phase, and sunspot type) affect the solar rotation rate. The differential rotation varies from cycle to cycle in such a way that the rotation velocity in the low activity cycle (cycle 20) is higher than in the high-activity cycle (cycle 19). The equatorial rotation rate shows a systematic variation within each cycle. The rate is higher at the beginning of the cycle and decreases subsequently. Although quite small, the variation of solar differential rotation with respect to Zürich sunspot type was found. The H and J types show the slowest rotation among all the sunspot types. 相似文献