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1.
使用一个改进的二维能量平衡模式模拟了过去0.8 Ma冰期-间冰期旋回期间北半球各纬度带的地表温度,并以65°N的地表温度为代表与南极冰芯记录进行了比较.通过敏感性试验,分析了日射量、温室气体、沙尘气溶胶强迫和水汽反馈的辐射-气候效应.结果显示,日射量变化不足以解释冰期-间冰期旋回期间北半球的地表温度变化,大气温室气体(...  相似文献   

2.
Orbital forcing of the climate system is clearly shown in the Earths record of glacial–interglacial cycles, but the mechanism underlying this forcing is poorly understood. Traditional Milankovitch theory suggests that these cycles are driven by changes in high latitude summer insolation, yet this forcing is dominated by precession, and cannot account for the importance of obliquity in the Ice Age record. Here, we investigate an alternative forcing based on the latitudinal insolation gradient (LIG), which is dominated by both obliquity (in summer) and precession (in winter). The insolation gradient acts on the climate system through differential solar heating, which creates the Earths latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG) that drives the atmospheric and ocean circulation. A new pollen-based reconstruction of the LTG during the Holocene is used to demonstrate that the LTG may be much more sensitive to changes in the LIG than previously thought. From this, it is shown how LIG forcing of the LTG may help explain the propagation of orbital signatures throughout the climate system, including the Monsoon, Arctic Oscillation and ocean circulation. These relationships are validated over the last (Eemian) Interglacial, which occurred under a different orbital configuration to the Holocene. We conclude that LIG forcing of the LTG explains many criticisms of classic Milankovitch theory, while being poorly represented in climate models.  相似文献   

3.
An ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model is developed to explore the time-dependent response of climate to Milankovitch forcing for the time interval 5–3 Myr BP. The ocean component is a zonally averaged model of the circulation in five basins (Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans). The atmospheric component is a one-dimensional (latitudinal) energy balance model, and the sea-ice component is a thermodynamic model. Two numerical experiments are conducted. The first experiment does not include sea ice and the Arctic Ocean; the second experiment does. Results from the two experiments are used to investigate (1) the response of annual mean surface air and ocean temperatures to Milankovitch forcing, and (2) the role of sea ice in this response. In both experiments, the response of air temperature is dominated by obliquity cycles at most latitudes. On the other hand, the response of ocean temperature varies with latitude and depth. Deep water formed between 45°N and 65°N in the Atlantic Ocean mainly responds to precession. In contrast, deep water formed south of 60°S responds to obliquity when sea ice is not included. Sea ice acts as a time-integrator of summer insolation changes such that annual mean sea-ice conditions mainly respond to obliquity. Thus, in the presence of sea ice, air temperature changes over the sea ice are amplified, and temperature changes in deep water of southern origin are suppressed since water below sea ice is kept near the freezing point.  相似文献   

4.
Summary For astronomical seasons, Rubincam insolation deviations at latitude 65° N varied from 218.50 Wm−2 to 225.75 Wm−2 (3%). The periodicity of the insolation cycles varied from 36.7 Kyr to 44.7 Kyr (20%) due to phase shift. Phase shift of insolation variations can induce asymmetry of the insolation cycles, permitting rapid melting and prolonged glaciation of ice sheets to occur. For instance, an abnormal decrease of the insolation frequency during the longer period of glacial interval would prolong glaciation into deep ice age. In this study, we apply Rubincam’s insolation equations to investigate the phase shift effect of insolation variations on climate change. Using complex transforms of the changing insolation, we have detected a phase modulation signal in the insolation variations. As a result, an especially new and interesting series of the phase-related insolation pulsation is established. The phase modulated insolation is then introduced as a forcing function into energy balance climate models. Results of model computations shed new insights into the spectrum of the paleoclimatic proxy-data. It is shown that phase modulation of the insolation may provide an appropriate and complete external forcing mechanism to which the climate system would respond. The 100 Kyr cycle of the frequency modulation of the Rubincam’s insolation variations does seem adequate to change the climate. Received July 16, 1997 Revised May 18, 1998  相似文献   

5.
The role of phase locking in a simple model for glacial dynamics   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
Glacial–interglacial oscillations are often described by simple conceptual models. Relatively few models, however, are accompanied by analytical solutions, though detailed analytical investigation of climate models often leads to deeper understanding of the climate system. Here we study a simple conceptual model for glacial dynamics, a simplified version of the sea-ice-switch mechanism of Gildor and Tziperman (Paleoceanography 15:605–615, 2000), and provide a detailed analytical treatment for this model. We show that when the model is forced by a simplified insolation forcing it exhibits rich dynamics and passes through a series of bifurcations before being completely phase-locked to the insolation forcing. Our model suggests that even when the glacial cycles are self-sustained, insolation forcing has a major role on the complexity of glacial cycles: (1) it is possible to obtain glacial–interglacial oscillations for a wider parameters range when the amplitude of the insolation forcing is larger; (2) in addition, the ice-volume becomes more periodic; (3) when the period of the ice-volume is minimal the ice-volume is symmetric and for larger period is more asymmetric; (4) the ice-volume can be either periodic, higher order periodic, or quasi-periodic.  相似文献   

6.
The causes of atmospheric methane (CH4) changes are still a major contention, in particular with regards to the relative contributions of glacial-interglacial cycles, monsoons in both hemispheres and the late Holocene human intervention. Here, we explore the CH4 signals in the Antarctic EPICA Dome C and Vostok ice records using the methods of timeseries analyses and correlate them with insolation and geological records to address these issues. The results parse out three distinct groups of CH4 signals attributable to different drivers. The first group (~80% variance), well tracking the marine δ18O record, is attributable to glacial-interglacial modulation on the global water cycle with the effects shared by wetlands at all latitudes, from monsoonal and non-monsoonal regions in both hemispheres. The second group (~15% variance), centered at the ~10-kyr semi-precession frequency, is linkable with insolation-driven tropical monsoon changes in both hemispheres. The third group (~5% variance), marked by millennial frequencies, is seemingly related with the combined effect of ice-volume and bi-hemispheric insolation changes at the precession bands. These results indicate that bi-hemispheric monsoon changes have been a constant driver of atmospheric CH4. This mechanism also partially explains the Holocene CH4 reversal since ~5?kyr BP besides the human intervention. In the light of these results, we propose that global monsoon can be regarded as a system consisting of two main integrated components, one primarily driven by the oscillations of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to the low-latitude summer insolation changes, anti-phase between the two hemispheres (i.e. the ITCZ monsoon component); and another modulated by the glacial-interglacial cycles, mostly synchronous at the global scale (i.e. the glacial-interglacial monsoon component). Although atmospheric CH4 record integrates all wetland processes, including significant non-monsoonal contributions, it is the only and probably the best proxy available to reflect the past changes of global monsoon. However, the utility of CH4 as a proxy of monsoon changes at any specific location is compromised by its bi-hemispheric nature.  相似文献   

7.
The response of the LLN 2-D climate model to the insolation and CO2 forcings during the Eemian interglacial is compared to reconstructions obtained from deep-sea cores drilled in the Norwegian Sea and in the North Atlantic. Both reconstructions and modeling results show a decrease of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the higher latitudes (70–75 °N zonal belt for the model and the Norwegian Sea for the proxy records), associated with a more moderate cooling at lower latitudes (50–55 °N and North Atlantic), at the middle of isotopic substage 5e, several millenia before the beginning of continental ice-sheet growth. Such a comparison between the simulated SST and ice volume of the Northern Hemisphere has been extended to the whole last glacial-interglacial cycle. The influence of the insolation forcing on SST and the shortcomings of the model due to its zonal character are discussed. Received: 6 July 1995/Accepted: 19 December 1995  相似文献   

8.
The importance of precessional signals in the tropical climate   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  
Past research on the climate response to orbital forcing has emphasized the glacial-interglacial variations in global ice volume, global-mean temperature, and the global hydrologic cycle. This emphasis may be inappropriate in the tropics, where the response to precessional forcing is likely to be somewhat independent of the glacial-interglacial variations, particularly in variables relating to the hydrologic cycle. To illustrate this point, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model, performing experiments that quantify the tropical climates response to (1) opposite phases of precessional forcing, and (2) Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. While the glacially-forced tropical temperature changes are typically more than an order of magnitude larger than those arising from precessional forcing, the hydrologic signals stemming from the two forcings are comparable in magnitude. The mechanisms behind these signals are investigated and shown to be quite distinct for the precessional and glacial forcing. Because of strong dynamical linkages in the tropics, the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales. Examples from the paleoclimate record are presented as additional evidence for the importance of precessional signals in past variations of the tropical climate.  相似文献   

9.
Summary The solar insolation at any point on the Earth can be expressed in terms of the latitude and longitude of that point and the parameters of the Earth's orbit. The derivation of such an equation is given here. One purpose of the equation is to gain theoretical insights into how the insolation varies on the time scales of the Milankovitch cycles. The most easily attained insights are that neither the main pacemaker of the ice agese, nor Milankovitch's precession indexe sin appear as terms in the equation (e is the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and is the argument of perihelion.) Obliquity does appear. These results are already well-known, but are easily derived when the insolation is formulated as given here. The equation also suggests expressing the Earth's albedo in the same form as the insolation. When this is done a term which looks likee sin can be made to appear, for example, multiplied by an albedo coefficient and lagged in phase. However, the term is small, of the order ofe 2. Besides theoretical insights, a second purpose of the equation is to provide a convenient formula for computing insolation when using numerical climate models. Its usefulness to this end is yet to be established.With 3 Figures  相似文献   

10.
It has been noted that several distinct modes of glacial oscillation have existed during the past few million years, ranging from low-amplitude, high-frequency oscillations in the early Pliocene, through relatively high amplitude, predominantly near-40 ky period, oscillations in the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, to the major near-100 ky period oscillations of the late Pleistocene. In addition to other plausible mechanisms suggested previously to explain aspects of this multirhythmic phenomenon, we now illustrate another possible contributor to this type of behavior based on the hypothesis that the slow-response climatic system is bistable and that two kinds of internal instability may be operative along with externally imposed forcing due to earth-orbital (Milankovitch) radiation changes and slow, tectonically-induced changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. These two instabilities have been discussed previously: one is due to positive feedback in the global carbon cycle leading to near-100 ky free oscillations of the ice sheets, and the other is due to the potential for ice-calving catastrophes associated with bedrock variations that can lead to oscillations of a period near 40 ky, independent of obliquity forcing. Within the framework of a dynamical model containing the possibility for these two instabilities, as well as for stable modes, we show (1) how Milankovitch radiative changes or stochastic forcing influencing ice sheets can induce aperiodic (chaotic) transitions between the possible stable and unstable modes, and more significantly, (2) how progressive, long-term, tectonically-induced, changes in carbon dioxide, acting in concert with earth-orbital radiative variations in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes, can force systematic transitions between the modes. Such systematic changes can result in an ice mass chronology for the past 5 My that is qualitatively similar to the observed record of global ice mass. In essence, we have constructed a minimum dynamical model of the late Cenozoic climatic changes, containing what are believed to be the main physical factors determining these changes: ice mass, bedrock depression, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, deep ocean thermohaline state, Milankovitch radiation forcing, and slow tectonically-induced carbon dioxide forcing. This model forms the basis for a coherent theory for the complex climatic events of this long period.  相似文献   

11.
The timing and nature of ice sheet variations on Greenland over the last ～5 million years remain largely uncertain. Here, we use a coupled climate-vegetation-ice sheet model to determine the climatic sensitivity of Greenland to combined sets of external forcings and internal feedbacks operating on glacial-interglacial timescales. In particular, we assess the role of atmospheric pCO2, orbital forcing, and vegetation dynamics in modifying thresholds for the onset of glaciation in late Pliocene and Pleistocene. The response of circum-Arctic vegetation to declining levels of pCO2 (from 400 to 200 ppmv) and decreasing summer insolation includes a shift from boreal forest to tundra biomes, with implications for the surface energy balance. The expansion of tundra amplifies summer surface cooling and heat loss from the ground, leading to an expanded summer snow cover over Greenland. Atmospheric and land surface fields respond to forcing most prominently in late spring-summer and are more sensitive at lower Pleistocene-like levels of pCO2. We find cold boreal summer orbits produce favorable conditions for ice sheet growth, however simulated ice sheet extents are highly dependent on both background pCO2 levels and land-surface characteristics. As a result, late Pliocene ice sheet configurations on Greenland differ considerably from late Pleistocene, with smaller ice caps on high elevations of southern and eastern Greenland, even when orbital forcing is favorable for ice sheet growth.  相似文献   

12.
We describe the evolutionary response of northern and southern hemisphere summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years using a fully coupled general circulation ocean-atmosphere model in which the orbital forcing is accelerated by a factor of 100. We find a strong and positive response of northern (southern) summer monsoon precipitation to northern (southern) summer insolation forcing. On average, July (January) precipitation maxima and JJA (DJF) precipitation maxima have high coherence and are approximately in phase with June (December) insolation maxima, implying an average lag between forcing and response of about 30° of phase at the precession period. The average lag increases to over 40° for 4-month precipitation averages, JJAS (DJFM). The phase varies from region to region. The average JJA (DJF) land temperature maxima also lag the June orbital forcing maxima by about 30° of phase, whereas ocean temperature maxima exhibit a lag of about 60° of phase at the precession period. Using generalized measures of the thermal and hydrologic processes that produce monsoons, we find that the summer monsoon precipitation indices for the six regions all fall within the phase limits of the process indices for the respective hemispheres. Selected observational studies from four of the six monsoon regions report approximate in-phase relations of summer monsoon proxies to summer insolation. However other observational studies report substantial phase lags of monsoon proxies and a strong component of forcing associated with glacial-age boundary conditions or other factors. An important next step will be to include glacial-age boundary condition forcing in long, transient paleoclimate simulations, along with orbital forcing.  相似文献   

13.
We present a simple algorithm to model the surface air temperature trends at the middle-high latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres for the last century. Unlike previous approaches, based on the variation of the solar irradiance only, the algorithm here presented is the sum of one more external influence: the periodic variation of insolation due to the astronomical nutation of the Earth's axis. The model we present predicts the anticorrelated mean surface air temperature trends, measured at middle-high latitudes of the two hemispheres, during the period of low solar irradiance. According to Milankovitch, a change of the Earth's obliquity means a variation of insolation mainly at the middle-high latitudes; this variation takes opposite sign for northern and southern hemispheres.  相似文献   

14.
Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：10  
The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations.  相似文献   

15.
We investigate the role of the ocean feedback on the climate in response to insolation forcing during the mid-Holocene (6,000 year BP) using results from seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. We examine how the dipole in late summer sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic increases the length of the African monsoon, how this dipole structure is created and maintained, and how the late summer SST warming in the northwest Indian Ocean affects the monsoon retreat in this sector. Similar mechanisms are found in all of the models, including a strong wind evaporation feedback and changes in the mixed layer depth that enhance the insolation forcing, as well as increased Ekman transport in the Atlantic that sharpens the Atlantic dipole pattern. We also consider changes in interannual variability over West Africa and the Indian Ocean. The teleconnection between variations in SST and Sahelian precipitation favor a larger impact of the Atlantic dipole mode in this region. In the Indian Ocean, the strengthening of the Indian dipole structure in autumn has a damping effect on the Indian dipole mode at the interannual time scale.  相似文献   

16.
The centennial?Cmillennial variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation over the past 1000?years was investigated through the analysis of a millennium simulation of the coupled ECHO-G model. The model results indicate that the centennial?Cmillennial variation of the EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcing (insolation, volcanic aerosol, and green house gases). The strength of the response depends on latitude; and the spatial structure of the centennial?Cmillennial variation differs from the interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system. On millennial time scale, the extratropical and subtropical precipitation was generally strong during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and weak during Little Ice Age (LIA). The tropical rainfall is insensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of volcanic aerosols) but significantly responds to the modern anthropogenic radiative forcing. On centennial time scale, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall also tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely. The forced response features in-phase rainfall variability between the extratropics and subtropics, which is in contrast to the anti-correlation on the interannual time scale. Further, the behavior of the interannual?Cdecadal variation in the extratropics is effectively modulated by change of the mean states on the millennial time scale, suggesting that the structure of the internal mode may vary with significant changes in the external forcing. These findings imply that on the millennial time scale, (a) the proxy data in the extratropical EA may more sensitively reflect the EASM rainfall variations, and (b) the Meiyu and the northern China rainfall provide a consistent measure for the EASM strength.  相似文献   

17.
The sensitivity of the last glacial-inception (around 115 kyr BP, 115,000 years before present) to different feedback mechanisms has been analysed by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. CLIMBER-2 includes dynamic modules of the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere and inland ice, the last of which was added recently by utilising the three-dimensonal polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. We performed a set of transient experiments starting at the middle of the Eemiam interglacial and ran the model for 26,000 years with time-dependent orbital forcing and observed changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration (CO2 forcing). The role of vegetation and ocean feedback, CO2 forcing, mineral dust, thermohaline circulation and orbital insolation were closely investigated. In our model, glacial inception, as a bifurcation in the climate system, appears in nearly all sensitivity runs including a run with constant atmospheric CO2 concentration of 280 ppmv, a typical interglacial value, and simulations with prescribed present-day sea-surface temperatures or vegetation cover—although the rate of the growth of ice-sheets growth is smaller than in the case of the fully interactive model. Only if we run the fully interactive model with constant present-day insolation and apply present-day CO2 forcing does no glacial inception appear at all. This implies that, within our model, the orbital forcing alone is sufficient to trigger the interglacial–glacial transition, while vegetation, ocean and atmospheric CO2 concentration only provide additional, although important, positive feedbacks. In addition, we found that possible reorganisations of the thermohaline circulation influence the distribution of inland ice.  相似文献   

18.
Intermediate models of the coupled tropical atmosphere?Cocean system have been used to illuminate the physics of interannual climate phenomenon such as El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific and to explore how the tropics might respond to a forcing such as changing insolation (Milankovitch) or atmospheric carbon dioxide. Importantly, most of the intermediate models are constructed as anomaly models: models that evolve on a prescribed climatological mean state, which is typically prescribed and done so on a rather ad hoc basis. Here we show how the observed climatological mean state fields [ocean currents and upwelling, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric surface winds] can be incorporated into a linearized intermediate model of the tropical coupled atmosphere?Cocean system: called Linear Ocean?CAtmosphere Model (LOAM), it is a linearized version of the Zebiak and Cane model. With realistic, seasonally varying mean state fields, we find that the essential physics of the ENSO mode is very similar to that in the original model and to that in the observations and that the observed mean fields support an ENSO mode that is stable to perturbations. Thus, our results provide further evidence that ENSO is generated and maintained by stochastic (uncoupled) perturbations. The method that we have outlined can be used to assimilate any set of ocean and atmosphere climatological data into the linearized atmosphere?Cocean model. In a companion paper, we apply this same method to incorporate mean field output from two global climate models into the linearised model. We use the latter to diagnose the physics of the leading coupled mode (ENSO) that is supported by the climate models, and to illuminate why the structure and variance in the ENSO mode changes in the models when they are forced by early Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions.  相似文献   

19.
Several studies have shown that the use of different calendars in paleoclimate simulations can cause artificial phase shifts on insolation forcing and climatic responses. However, these important calendar corrections are still often neglected. In this paper, the phase shifts at the precession band is quantitatively assessed by converting the model data of the transient GCM climate simulation of Kutzbach et al. (Clim Dyn 30:567?C579, 2008) from the ??fixed-day?? calendar to the ??fixed-angular?? calendar with a new and efficient approach. We find that insolation has a big phase shift in September?COctober?CNovember (SON) when the vernal equinox (VE) is fixed to March 21. At high latitude, the phase bias is up to 60° (about 3650?years). The insolation phase bias in SON in Southern Hemisphere (SH) is especially important because it can influence the timing of the SH summer monsoon response due to the large heat capacity of ocean. The calendar correction has minor effect (±2°) on the phase relationships between forcing and precipitation responses of the six global summer monsoons studied in Kutzbach et al. (2008). After correcting the calendar effect, especial on SH ocean temperature, the new phase wheel results are more similar for both hemispheres. The results suggest that the calendar effect should be corrected before discussing the dynamics between orbital forcing and climatic responses in phase studies of transient simulations.  相似文献   

20.
The spectral description of climate change including the 100 ky energy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Core records, both ice and deep-sea, suggest that the dominant character is that of a red-noise process or random walk. Examination of a few typical records supports the inference that the contribution of the Milankovitch frequencies to climate change at most represents only a small fraction of total climate variance. Most spectral densities are sufficiently "flat" that rates of change will be dominated by the highest frequencies present in the forcing. A broad maximum near 100 ky period can be readily rationalized without invoking an oscillator. One need only suppose that there is an approximate threshold beyond which the climate system collapses. The quasiperiodicity is then governed by a combination of the collapse threshold, the system memory time scale, and the intensity of the stochastic forcing. Changes in the forcing intensity would lead to a shift in the dominant time scale. Some inferred spectral power laws may be inaccurate owing to undersampling of the records.  相似文献   

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