首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
The general features of alpine permafrost such as spatial distribution, temperatures, ice content, permafrost and active-layer thickness within the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia are described. The modern thermal state of permafrost reflects climatic processes during the twentieth century when the average rise in mean annual air temperature was 0.006–0.032 °C/yr for the different parts of the Tien Shan. Geothermal observations during the last 30 yr indicate an increase in permafrost temperatures from 0.3 °C up to 0.6 °C. At the same time, the average active-layer thickness increased by 23% in comparison to the early 1970s. The long-term records of air temperature and snow cover from the Tien Shan's high-mountain weather stations allow reconstruction of the thermal state of permafrost dynamics during the last century. The modeling estimation shows that the altitudinal lower boundary of permafrost distribution has shifted by about 150–200 m upward during the twentieth century. During the same period, the area of permafrost distribution within two river basins in the Northern Tien Shan decreased approximately by 18%. Both geothermal observations and modeling indicate more favorable conditions for permafrost occurrences and preservation in the coarse blocky material, where the ice-rich permafrost could still be stable even when the mean annual air temperatures exceeds 0 °C.  相似文献   

2.
This research presents a precise evaluation of the Tien Shan glacier's recession based on data of geodetic surveys 1861–1869, aerial photographs from 1943, 1963, 1977, 1981, 1:25,000 scale topographic maps, SRTM, and ASTER data from 2000/2003 for the Akshiirak glacierized massif in the central Tien Shan with 178 glaciers covering 317.6 km2, and for the Ala Archa glacier basin in the northern Tien Shan with 48 glaciers covering 36.31 km2.The Tien Shan glaciers retreated as much as 3 km from the 1860s to 2003. From 1943 to 1977, Akshiirak and Ala Archa shrunk 4.2% and 5.1% respectively, and from 1977 to 2003 the area shrunk 8.6% and 10.6%, respectively. The volume of the Akshiirak glaciers was reduced by 3.566 km3 from 1943 to 1977 and 6.147 km3 from 1977 to 2000.The total reduction of the Tien Shan glacier is 14.2% during the last 60 yr. The northern and central Tien Shan have not experienced a significant increase of precipitation during the last 100 yr, but they have experienced an increase in summer air temperatures, especially observable since the 1970s, which caused an acceleration of the Tien Shan glaciers recession.  相似文献   

3.
The growth of two high-elevation inland lakes (at 4600 m) was analyzed using satellite imagery (2000–2005) and data were collected over the last decade (1997–2006) at a plateau meteorological station (at 4820 m) and stream gauging data from a station (at 4250 m) in central Tibet. We examined the lake water balance responses to meteorological and hydrological variables. The results show that the lake areas greatly expanded by a maximum of 27.1% (or 43.7 km2) between 1998 and 2005. This expansion appears to be associated with an increase in annual precipitation of 51.0 mm (12.6%), mean annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.41 °C and 0.71 °C, and an annual runoff increase of 20% during the last decade. The changes point to an abrupt increase in the annual precipitation, mean temperature and runoff occurring in 1996, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and a decrease in the annual pan evaporation that happened in 1996. The timing of lake growth corresponds closely with abrupt increases in the annual precipitation and runoff and with the decrease in the annual evaporation since the mid-1990s. This study indicates a strong positive water balance in these permafrost highland lakes, and provides further evidence of lake growth as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change.  相似文献   

4.
Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r2 = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r2 are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r2 = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.  相似文献   

5.
We utilize a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2) to simulate East Asian monsoon climates at 0 ka, 6 ka and 21 ka BP, and evaluate the changes in hydrology process, including vapor transportation, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in the eastern and western China during these periods. Results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau climate presents a wet–cold status during the LGM while it exhibits a wet–warm climate at 6 ka BP. The LGM wetter climate over the Tibetan Plateau mainly results from the increased vapor inflow through its south boundary, while the increase in the vapor import over the Tibetan Plateau at 6 ka BP mostly sources from its west boundary. The increase in the LGM runoff over the Tibetan Plateau is mainly caused by the decrease in evapotranspiration, while the increase in runoff at the 6 ka BP mainly by the enhanced precipitation. Eastern China (including southern China) presents a dry status during the LGM, which precipitation and runoff decreases significantly due largely to weakened Asian summer monsoon that results in the decreased vapor inflow through the south boundary of eastern China. The variation pattern in the hydrological cycle in eastern China is contrary to that in western China during the LGM. The increase in precipitation and runoff at 6 ka BP in eastern China is tightly related to the strong Asian summer monsoon that leads to increased vapor import through the south boundary. Long term decrease trend in precipitation and runoff in northern China since the last 20 000 years may be attributed to the steady increase in vapor export through the east boundary as a result of the changes of East Asian monsoon and the adjustments of local atmospheric circulations in this area.  相似文献   

6.
Changes in the extent of glaciers and rates of glacier termini retreat in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo Range, the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia have been evaluated using the remote sensing techniques. Changes in the extent of 335 glaciers between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; mid-19th century), 1990 and 2003 have been estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and the LIA moraine positions on the Landsat TM and ASTER imagery for 1990 and 2003 respectively. By 2003, the glacier surface area had decreased by 19% of the LIA value, which constitutes a 76 km2 reduction in glacier surface area. Mapping of 109 glaciers using the 1965 1:25,000 maps revealed that glacier surface area decreased by 12.6% of the 1965 value between 1965 and 2003. Detailed mapping of 10 glaciers using historical maps and aerial photographs from the 1943–1977 period, has enabled glacier extent variations over the 20th century to be identified with a higher temporal resolution. Glacial retreat was slow in the early 20th century but increased considerably between 1943 and 1956 and then again after 1977. The post-1990 period has been marked by the most rapid glacier retreat since the end of the LIA. The observed changes in the extent of glaciers are in line with the observed climatic warming. The regional weather stations have revealed a strong climatic warming during the ablation season since the 1950s at a rate of 0.02–0.03 °C a− 1. At the higher elevations in the study area represented by the Tien Shan meteorological station, the summer warming was accompanied by negative anomalies in annual precipitation in the 1990s enhancing glacier retreat. However, trends in precipitation in the post-1997 period cannot be evaluated due to the change in observational practices at this station. Neither station in the study area exhibits significant long-term trends in precipitation.  相似文献   

7.
The heat needed to melt snow over the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands for 10-day period (TDP) was estimated. Melting curves and a map of snowmelt duration were obtained through the long-term data from 79 stations in the Tien Shan mountains and 20 stations in the Japanese Islands. At high elevations in the mountains, about 40% of the snow melts during penultimate 10 days of snow cover. In the Japanese Islands, about 80% of the snow melts during the last 20 days of snow cover. Over the mountains, 0.13×104 MJ m2 year−1 is needed to melt snow in the northern and western Tien Shan where maximum snow accumulation occurred. The volume of air cooled 10 °C by snowmelt amounted to 4.4×106 km3 year−1 over the Tien Shan mountains and 3×106 km3 year−1 over the Japanese Islands. The most significant impact of snowmelt on air temperature was observed at an elevation of 2500 m in the western and northern Tien Shan. Air that was cooled 10 °C could reach an elevation of 2.1 km day−1. Over the Japanese Islands, energy losses from snowmelt amounted to 0.26×1014 MJ year−1 and the maximum occurred over Honshu Island. The heat loss from snowmelt in the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands amounted to about 2/3 of heat loss in the Eurasian continental plains.  相似文献   

8.
Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 14C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.  相似文献   

9.
Climate change may affect the sediment generation and transportation processes and the consequent sediment flux in a river. The sensitivity of suspended sediment flux to climate change in the Longchuanjiang catchment is investigated with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). ANNs were calibrated and validated using sediment flux data from 1960 to 1990 during which the influence from human activities was relatively stable. The established ANN is used to predict the responses of sediment flux to 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature up to − 1, 1, 2 and 3 °C and by scaling the baseline precipitation by +/− 10% and +/− 20%. The results indicated when temperature remains unchanged, an increase in rainfall will lead to a rise in sediment flux; when rainfall level remains unchanged, an increase in temperature is likely to result in a decrease in sediment flux. Same percentage of changes in rainfall and temperature are likely to trigger higher responses in wetter months than in drier months. However, it is the combination of the change in temperature and rainfall that determines the change of sediment flux in a river. Higher sediment flux is expected to appear under wetter and warmer climate, when higher transport capacity is accompanied by higher erosion rate.  相似文献   

10.
Air and ground temperatures measured in Eastern Siberia has been compiled and analyzed. The analysis of mean annual air temperatures measured at 52 meteorological stations within and near the East-Siberian transect during the period from 1956 through 1990 demonstrates a significant and statistically significant (at 0.05 level) positive trend ranging from 0.065 to 0.59 °C/10 yr. A statistically significant (at 0.05 level) positive trend was also observed in mean annual ground temperatures for the same period. The permafrost temperature reflects changes in air temperature on a decadal time scale much better than on an interannual time scale. Generally, positive trends in mean annual ground temperatures are slightly smaller in comparison with trends in mean annual air temperatures, except for several sites where the discordance between the air and ground temperatures can be explained by the winter snow dynamics. The average trend for the entire region was 0.26 °C/10 yr for ground temperatures at 1.6 m depth and 0.29 °C/10 yr for the air temperatures. The most significant trends in mean annual air and ground temperatures were in the southern part of the transect, between 55° and 65° N. Numerical modeling of ground temperatures has been performed for Yakutsk and Tiksi for the last 70 yr. Comparing the results of these calculations with a similar time series obtained for Fairbanks and Barrow in Alaska shows that similar variations of ground temperatures took place at the same time periods in Yakutsk and Fairbanks, and in Tiksi and Barrow. The decadal and longer time scale fluctuations in permafrost temperatures were pronounced in both regions. The magnitudes of these fluctuations were on the order of a few degrees centigrade. The fluctuations of mean annual ground temperatures were coordinated in Fairbanks and Yakutsk, and in Barrow and Tiksi. However, the magnitude and timing of these fluctuations were slightly different for each of the sites.  相似文献   

11.
The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.  相似文献   

12.
A glaciological program has been undertaken since 1991 on Zongo glacier in Bolivia (6000–4850 m asl, 2.4 km2, 16°S). This program involves mass balance measurements, hydrological studies and energy balance investigations. On outer-tropical glaciers, melting and snow accumulation are both maximum in the wet season (austral summer), whereas the dry season (winter) is a period of low ablation. Errors on each term of the glaciological (stakes, snow-pits and integration method of the measurements) and hydrological (precipitation, discharge and runoff coefficient of free ice areas) methods are investigated to estimate the overall accuracy of the mass balance measurements. The hydrological budget is less than the glaciological one (mean difference: 60 cm w.e. per year), but both methods reproduce similar inter-annual variations. Errors in assessment of evaporation or water storage inside the glacier cannot explain the discrepancy. Errors using the glaciological method are large (around ± 40 cm w.e. per year), but no bias can explain the departure from the hydrological balance. Errors on discharge measurements are small and the uncertainty on the runoff coefficient has a minor effect on the mass balance. We concluded that hydrological budgets are too low due to the catch deficiency of rain gauges and absence of precipitation measurements at high altitudes, emphasizing the difficulty to assess snowfall distribution in high mountainous basins.  相似文献   

13.
Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.  相似文献   

14.
A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.  相似文献   

15.
Cryospheric change in China   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  
This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km2. The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km3 and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 109 m3. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 106 km2 and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 109 m3 yr− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 106 km2. The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km3. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.  相似文献   

16.
Influence of upper air conditions on the Patagonia icefields   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Upper-air conditions archived in the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis have been used to investigate changes in precipitation and snowfall over the Patagonia icefields during 1960–99. Apparently, whereas total precipitation has not changed, warming has caused a decrease in the amount falling as snow. Precipitation at a site is taken to be proportional to the product of the relative humidity and the component of the wind in a particular critical direction, both at 850 hPa ( 1400 m) at a point over the ocean to the west of the icefields; whether it falls as rain or snow is assumed to depend on whether the temperature at the elevation of the site is above or below + 2 °C. The critical direction is assumed to be 270°, which is perpendicular to the north–south trending Andes and is also the prevailing wind direction in this zone of strong westerlies. Because of the scarcity of precipitation records on or near the icefields, the constant of proportionality cannot be determined, so the investigation is limited to examining relative changes in those upper air variables. Warming at 850 hPa has been 0.5 °C over the 40 years, both winter and summer, with the effects that it has: (1) shifted from snow to rain 5% of the precipitation, the total of which has changed little, and (2) increased annual melt in the ablation areas by 0.5 m w.e. The icefields have been losing mass since at least 1870, so this 40-year trend represents only an acceleration of the longer-term trend of adjusting to climate change since the Little Ice Age.  相似文献   

17.
During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 × 103 km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric–oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these “normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these “excess” rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles.  相似文献   

18.
The Huanghe, the second largest river in China, is now under great pressure as a water resource. Using datasets of river water discharge, water consumption and regional precipitation for the past 50 years, we elucidate some connections between decreasing water discharges, global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anthropogenic impacts in the drainage basin. Global ENSO events, which directly affected the regional precipitation in the river basin, resulted in approximately 51% decrease in river water discharge to the sea. The degree of anthropogenic impacts on river water discharge is now as great as that of natural influences, accelerating the water losses in the hydrological cycle. The large dams and reservoirs regulated the water discharge and reduced the peak flows by storing the water in the flood season and releasing it in the dry season as needed for agricultural irrigation. Thus, as a result, large dams and reservoirs have shifted the seasonal distribution patterns of water discharge and water consumption and finally resulted in rapidly increasing water consumption. Meanwhile, the annual distribution pattern of water consumption also changed under the regulation of dams and reservoirs, indicating that the people living in the river basin consume the water more and more to suit actual agricultural schedule rather than depending upon natural pattern of annual precipitation. The combination of the increasing water consumption facilitated by the dams and reservoirs and the decreasing precipitation closely associated with the global ENSO events over the past half century has resulted in water scarcity in this world-famous river, as well as in a number of subsequent serious results for the river, delta and coastal ocean.  相似文献   

19.
Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies, as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961–2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO2 for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' × 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980–1999, 2030–2049 and 2080–2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets, we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations, especially during winter and spring seasons, and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors.  相似文献   

20.
Accumulation of organic matter (OM) was studied in four ombrotrophic peat bogs in Finland: Harjavalta (vicinity of a Cu–Ni smelter), Outokumpu (near a closed Cu–Ni mine), Alkkia (Ni-treated site) and Hietajärvi (a pristine site). At each sampling site, two peat cores (15 × 15 × 100 cm) were taken. Age-dating of peat was determined using 210Pb method (CRS model). The local annual temperature sum and precipitation for the past 125 years were modeled. The objective was to compare recent net accumulation rates of heavy metal polluted ombrotrophic peat bogs with those of a pristine bog, and to study the relationship between weather and net accumulation rates. Based on 210Pb age-dating, the upper 16-cm peat layer at Harjavalta, 35 cm at Outokumpu and 25 cm at Hietajärvi represents 125 years of peat formation, yielding the following average peat accumulation rates: Harjavalta 1.3 mm year− 1, Outokumpu 2.8 mm year− 1 and Hietajärvi 2.0 mm year− 1. At the Alkkia site, the Ni treatment in 1962 had completely stopped the peat accumulation. Net accumulation rates were related to precipitation at Outokumpu, Harjavalta and Hietajärvi sites. In addition, emissions released from the nearby located Cu–Ni smelter could have affected negatively net OM accumulation rate at Harjavalta site.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号