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1.
不同地形和下垫面对冬季地中海气旋发展影响的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过数值模拟方法对一个冬季地中海气旋发生和发展的可能机制进行了研究。控制试验和对比试验结果指出，阿尔卑期山背风坡是气旋的有利生成地；但阿尔卑斯山和阿特拉斯山的存在与否，对冬季地中海气旋发展的影响不大。下垫面替代试验结果指出，冬季地中海作为一个非绝热加热源，对其气旋的发展有着十分重要的作用当以陆面或沙漠代替地中海面时，则气旋的发展显著减弱。地形替代试验结果指出，当青藏高原移到地中海西部，并且二者配合 相似文献
2.
Judit Bartholy Rita Pongrácz Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,96(1-2):133-144
Midlatitude cyclones are analyzed on a selected region covering most of southern Europe and the western part of the Mediterranean Sea (35–50°N, 10°W–25°E). On the basis of mean sea level pressure fields of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast) Reanalysis Dataset (ERA-40), detailed evaluation of Mediterranean cyclones is accomplished for the period between 1957 and 2002 on a 1° horizontal resolution grid. Cyclone centers are identified and their paths are tracked with a 6-h time step (using 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC). Decadal, annual, and seasonal statistical analysis of cyclone tracks includes the study of the genesis, frequency, and activity of the Mediterranean cyclones as well as the variability of cyclone tracks. The results suggest that the cyclone frequency in the western Mediterranean region increased in summer and autumn, and decreased in winter and spring. A special belt-shaped area is identified, which plays a special role in cyclogenesis, and also, the cyclone tracks often remain within this belt. An overall decreasing trend is detected in winter and spring in the entire Mediterranean belt, while cyclone frequency increased in autumn. The largest positive and negative trend coefficients are identified in summer. 相似文献
3.
Summary The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity
during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and
two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively
analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual
pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers
of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number
of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks
is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances
was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of
the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern
Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear
signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in
the eastern Mediterranean are also made.
Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999 相似文献
4.
Winter cyclone frequencies in thirteen models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP1) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Various aspects of the simulated behaviour of cyclones in thirteen models participating in the AMIP1 exercise are presented. In the simulation of the winter climatological mean sea level pressure field for the Northern Hemisphere, the models produce reasonable simulations of the "semi-permanent" features of the climatology. The greatest departures from the observed climatology occur near the exit regions of the oceanic storm tracks; i.e., over northwestern North America, over and to the west of the British Isles and in the Mediterranean. The departures in the three geographical areas are very systematic in that at least eleven of the models exhibit similar departures from observations. In the Southern Hemisphere the intensity of the circumpolar trough is generally well simulated but positioned slightly too far north. Most models exhibit errors south of Africa, New Zealand, and South America. The simulations of the cyclone events show that the models are reasonably successful in reproducing the large-scale aspects of observed cyclone events but deficiencies in the details of the simulations are apparent. The paucity of simulated events to the south of the Alps and to the east of the Rockies suggests that the models have difficulty simulating lee cyclogenesis. Over much of North America, the models have difficulty simulating the correct level of synoptic activity as demonstrated by the low numbers of both cyclone events and anticyclone events. The models have difficulty simulating the distribution of cyclone events as a function of central pressure. The most common problem is that the models exhibit an ever increasing deficit of events with decreasing central pressure. This problem is more apparent in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and does not appear to be resolution dependent. There is an apparent ENSO signal in the observed Northern Hemisphere interannual variability of intense winter cyclone events. With the exception of ECMWF, the models fail to reproduce this phenomenon. There is some evidence that the models do indeed respond to the interannual variability in the SSTs, but the response tends to be negatively correlated with that of the real atmosphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, there does not appear to be ENSO-induced interannual variability in the observed numbers of cyclone events. Consequently, it could be argued that the models have been reasonably successful in the Southern Hemisphere since they, like the observations, do not exhibit any ENSO-induced interannual variability. 相似文献
5.
The paper shows the statistical analysis of cyclone tracks that have influence on the western Antarcticregion.Based on the conditions of cyclone movement and its impact upon the weather,cyclone tracks areclassified into three categories,i.e.,the track moving towards the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula,southern track,and northern track.Moreover,in this paper,the frequency distributions of cyclone tracks,the major tracks with higherfrequencies,the original region of Antarctic cyclones and the seasonal features of Antarctic cyclones have beenanalyzed.The results show that there are higher cyclogeneses in summer,whereas relatively fewer cycloge-neses in winter,and cyclone numbers in transitional seasons are close to the climatological average.Theanalysis also shows that the moving velocity of Antarctic cyclone is about the same in winter and summer.It obviously speed up during the transitional season. 相似文献
6.
Winter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Christoph Cornelius Raible Baruch Ziv Hadas Saaroni Martin Wild 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(2-3):473-488
Changes of the winter climate in the Mediterranean Basin (MB) for future A2 conditions are investigated for the period 2071–2100 and compared with the control period 1961–1990. The analysis is based on time-slice simulations of the latest version of the ECHAM model. First, the control simulation is evaluated with reanalysis data. The emphasis is given to synoptic and large-scale features and their variability in the MB. The model is found to be capable of reproducing the main features of the MB and southern Europe in the winter season. Second, the A2 simulation is compared with the control simulation, revealing considerable changes of the synoptic variability. Focusing on the synoptic spatio-temporal scale aims to unfold the dynamic background of the climatic changes. The Mediterranean cyclones, which are individually detected and tracked, decrease by 10% in the Western Mediterranean (WM) whereas no significant change is found in the Eastern Mediterranean. The cyclone intensity is slightly reduced in the entire region. To understand these changes, the underlying dynamical background is analyzed. It is found that changes in baroclinicity, static stability, transformation from eddy kinetic energy to kinetic energy of the mean flow and stationary wave activity are significant in particular in the WM and the coastline of North Africa. The reduction of cyclonic activity severely impacts the precipitation mainly in the southern part of the WM. 相似文献
7.
Over south-eastern Europe, severe weather events are often associated with Mediterranean cyclones. This paper presents a climatic study of severe storms over Bulgaria produced by synoptic-scale Mediterranean cyclones, which are the main high-impact weather systems for the region during the winter season. The study is based on a synoptically oriented data set that contains systematic information about the pronounced Mediterranean cyclones including their life and trajectories over the Mediterranean area and the severe storms over Bulgaria produced by them. The definition of a severe storm is a storm in which the wind speed and precipitation exceed thresholds of 15 m/s and 30 mm/24 h, respectively. The observed severe storms were split into two groups by the number of districts where they have caused damages. During the last years a trend of decreasing numbers of initiating synoptic-scale Mediterranean cyclones has been observed. However, the number of those producing a high-impact weather phenomenon over Bulgaria has increased. In these high-impact cases, the observed paths of the cyclones are connected to the specific circulation conditions over the region. In the most severe cases, almost 80% of the cyclones move through the southernmost parts of Balkan Peninsula and for a large portion of them, this motion is associated with a blocking regime in the mid-level mass field.The development of such Mediterranean cyclone cases has been studied and results are presented here. The results illustrate the synoptic-scale mechanisms for intensification of a feeding flow of Mediterranean air towards the area affected by extremely severe weather. 相似文献
8.
Christos J. Lolis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):189-200
The inter-annual variability of winter convective precipitation rate (CPR) in southeastern Europe and its connection to 500?hPa geopotential height (GH) is examined for the period 1950–2009 by using factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis. Two GH centers of action for CPR are found. The first one is located over Italy and it is associated with the typical winter depression activity regime over the Mediterranean Sea, controlling CPR in southern Italy, the southern Balkans, west Asia Minor, and the adjacent seas. The second one is located over the British Isles and it is associated with blocking activity over western Europe being responsible for a CPR seesaw teleconnection between (1) northern Italy, the Alps and the northwestern Balkans and (2) the south central Mediterranean Sea, south of Sicily. A CPR decrease in most of the areas under study and a CPR increase in the south central Mediterranean Sea are found. 相似文献
9.
Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection
to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum
from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation
for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate
Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence
of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the
North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related
to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity
in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes
of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these
relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations
compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index
of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward
shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in
the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. 相似文献
10.
The dynamics of tropical cyclone is investigated in a nondivergent barotropic model with nobasic flow. The effect of nonlinear term on the movement and development of tropical cyclone isemphatically demonstrated. The advection of asymmetric vorticity by the symmetric flow (AAVS)produces the small-scale gyres (SSGs). The SSGs counterclockwise rotate around the tropicalcyclone center. The interaction of SSGs with the large-scale beta gyres (LSBGs) leads to theoscillation in translation speed and vacillation in translation direction for tropical cyclone. Theadvection of symmetric vorticity by the asymmetric flow (ASVA) steers the symmetric circulationof tropical cyclone. The ventilation flow vector determined by the asymmetric flow is closecorrelated with the motion vector of tropical cyclone. The nonlinear advection of relative vorticityis an order of magnitude greater than the linear advection of planetary vorticity, However, theasymmetric circulation created by the planetary vorticity advection provides a background conditionfor anomalous motions of the tropical cyclone. The combination of the linear and nonlinear effectsresults in accelerated, decelerated, changing direction and/or counterclockwise looping motions ofthe tropical cyclone. 相似文献