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1.
Terray Pascal Sooraj K. P. Masson S&#;bastien Prodhomme Chlo&#; 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1):329-356
Climate Dynamics - Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit an inverse relationship during boreal summer, which is one of the roots of ISM... 相似文献
2.
Various SST indices in the Indo-Pacific region have been proposed in the literature in light of a long-range seasonal forecasting of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). However, the dynamics associated with these different indices have never been compared in detail. To this end, the present work re-examines the variabilities of ISM rainfall, onset and withdrawal dates at interannual timescales and explores their relationships with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various modes of coupled variability in the Indian Ocean. Based on recent findings in the literature, five SST indices are considered here: Ni?o3.4 SST index in December?CJanuary both preceding [Nino(?1)] and following the ISM [Nino(0)], South East Indian Ocean (SEIO) SST in February?CMarch, the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode in April?CMay and, finally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) averaged from September to November, also, both preceding [IOD(?1)] and following the ISM [IOD(0)]. The respective merits and associated dynamics of the selected indices are compared through various correlation and regression analyses. Our first result is a deceptive one: the statistical relationships with the ISM rainfall at the continental and seasonal scales are modest and only barely significant, particularly for the IOD, IOB and Nino(?1) indices. However, a detailed analysis shows that statistical relationships with the ISM rainfall time series are statistically biased as the ISM rainfall seems to be shaped by much intraseasonal variability, linked in particular to the timing of the onset and withdrawal of the ISM. Surprisingly, analysis within the ISM season shows that Nino(?1), IOB and SEIO indices give rise to prospects of comparatively higher ISM previsibility for both the ISM onset and the amount of rainfall during the second half of the ISM season. The IOD seems to play only a secondary role. Moreover, our work shows that these indices are associated with distinct processes occurring within the Indian Ocean from late boreal winter or early spring onwards. The regression analyses also illustrate that these (local) mechanisms are dynamically and remotely linked to different phases of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific, a result which may have useful implications in terms of forecasting strategies since the choice of the better indices then hinges on the concurrent phasing of the ENSO cycle. 相似文献
3.
Recent gridded and historical data are used in order to assess the relationships between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the Indian and Pacific oceans. Interannual variability of ISM rainfall and dynamical indices for the traditional summer monsoon season (June–September) are strongly influenced by rainfall and circulation anomalies observed during August and September, or the late Indian summer monsoon (LISM). Anomalous monsoons are linked to well-defined LISM rainfall and large-scale circulation anomalies. The east-west Walker and local Hadley circulations fluctuate during the LISM of anomalous ISM years. LISM circulation is weakened and shifted eastward during weak ISM years. Therefore, we focus on the predictability of the LISM. Strong (weak) (L)ISMs are preceded by significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Indian Ocean, off Australia, during boreal winter. These SST anomalies are mainly linked to south Indian Ocean dipole events, studied by Besera and Yamagata (2001) and to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These SST anomalies are highly persistent and affect the northwestward translation of the Mascarene High from austral to boreal summer. The southeastward (northwestward) shift of this subtropical high associated with cold (warm) SST anomalies off Australia causes a weakening (strengthening) of the whole monsoon circulation through a modulation of the local Hadley cell during the LISM. Furthermore, it is suggested that the Mascarene High interacts with the underlying SST anomalies through a positive dynamical feedback mechanism, maintaining its anomalous position during the LISM. Our results also explain why a strong ISM is preceded by a transition in boreal spring from an El Niño to a La Niña state in the Pacific and vice versa. An El Niño event and the associated warm SST anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean during boreal winter may play a key role in the development of a strong ISM by strengthening the local Hadley circulation during the LISM. On the other hand, a developing La Niña event in boreal spring and summer may also enhance the east–west Walker circulation and the monsoon as demonstrated in many previous studies. 相似文献
4.
J. S. Chowdary C. Gnanaseelan Soumi Chakravorty 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):329-336
Influence of northwest (NW) Pacific anticyclone on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), particularly over the head Bay of Bengal and monsoon trough region, is investigated. Strong NW Pacific anticyclone during summer induces negative precipitation anomalies over the head Bay of Bengal and Gangetic Plain region. Westward extension of moisture divergence and dry moisture transport from NW Pacific associated with anticyclone (ridge) and local Hadley cell-induced subsidence are responsible for these negative precipitation anomalies. The impact is maximum when the anticyclone and Indian Ocean basin warming co-occur. This contributes significantly to year-to-year variability of ISM. 相似文献
5.
This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department’s rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.
相似文献6.
This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. A major model bias is the eastward displacement of the western North Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), near the dateline, during northern summer. This introduces a strong semiannual component in Pacific Walker circulation indices and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Another weakness of the coupled model is a less-than-adequate simulation of the Southern Oscillation due to an erroneous eastward extension of the Southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) year round. Despite these problems, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Niño34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2–4 year band, as compared to the 2–8 year range for observations during the 1950–2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Niño34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These features are mainly due to the unrealistic interannual variability simulated by the model in the western North Pacific. The amplitude and even the sign of the simulated surface and upper level wind anomalies in these areas are not consistent with observed patterns during weak/strong ISM years. The ISM and western North Pacific ITCZ fluctuate independently in the observations, while they are negatively and significantly correlated in the simulation. This isolates the Pacific Walker circulation from the ISM forcing. These systematic errors may also contribute to the reduced amplitude of ENSO variability in the coupled simulation. Most of the unrealistic features in simulating the Indo-Pacific interannual variability may be traced back to systematic errors in the base state of the coupled model. 相似文献
7.
Analysis and Numerical Simulations of the Teleconnection Between Indian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in North China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4 
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下载免费PDF全文 In the early 1980s, Chinese meteorologists discovered the positive correlation in summer rainfall between India and North China and the correlation was later confirmed by some researches in and outside China. Based on a variety of meteorological data from 1951 to 2005 and numerical simulations, the present study investigates such a correlation between Indian summer monsoon （ISM） and precipitation in North China. Furthermore, we discuss the intrinsic relations of the positive （Northwest India）-negative （the Tibetan Plateau）-positive （North China） precipitation anomaly teleconnection pattern from two aspects of thermal and dynamical factors, which not only confirms the precipitation teleconnection previously discovered again, but also reveals the influence mechanism of the ISM on the rainfall in North China. The results show that： （1） When the ISM is strong （weak）, the precipitation in North China tends to be more （less） than normal; however, when the rainfall in North China is more （less） than normal, the probability of the strengthening （weakening） of the ISM is relatively lower. This implies that the ISM anomaly has more impact on the rainfall in North China. （2） The Indian low usually dominantly impacts the intensity of the ISM. When the Indian low deepens, the low troughs in mid-high latitudes are frequently strengthened, and the ridge of the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） extends westward. The southwesterly water vapor transport originated from low-latitudes and the southeasterly water vapor transport along the southwestern flank of the WPSH converge in North China, which is favorable for more rainfall there than normal, and vice versa. （3） The simulations from the regional climate model developed by National Climate Center （ReGCM_NCC） capture the salient feature of the precipitation teleconnection between India and North China. The simulated anomalous atmospheric existence of such a teleconnection from another circulations are close to observatio 相似文献
8.
Xuedong Cui Yongqi Gao Jianqi Sun Dong Guo Shuanglin Li Ola M. Johannessen 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):2283-2295
We use reconstructed data and multi-centennial integrations performed with the Bergen Climate Model Version 2 to investigate the impact of natural external forcing factors on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the potential relationship between the ISM rainfall and the winter NAO on decadal to inter-decadal timescales. The model simulations include a 600-year control integration (CTL600) and a 600-year integration with time-varied natural external forcing factors from 1400 to 1999 (EXT600). Both reconstructed data and the simulation showed increased ISM rainfall 2–3 years after strong volcanic eruptions. Strong volcanic eruptions decrease the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), which increases the strength of the southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea. With negative externally-forced radiative anomaly, the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator winter temperature gradient is enhanced, leading to a positive winter NAO anomaly with a time lag of 1 year. There is no significant correlation between the winter NAO and ISM rainfall in CTL600. However, the ISM rainfall is significantly positively correlated with the winter NAO in EXT600, with the NAO leading by 2–4 years, which is consistent with the NAO–ISM rainfall relationship in the reconstructed data. We suggest that natural external forcing factors regulate the inter-decadal variability of both the winter NAO and the ISM rainfall and thus likely lead to an increased statistical but not causal relationship between them on the inter-decadal timescale over the past centuries. 相似文献
9.
利用国家气候中心160站月平均降水资料、印度热带气象研究所的全印度月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,从年际和年代际角度分别研究了欧亚遥相关型（Eurasian teleconnection,EU）对印度夏季风与华北夏季降水关系的影响,并探究其物理机制。结果表明,EU与印度夏季风之间的相关系数只有-0.078,二者相互独立。印度夏季风与华北夏季降水有正相关关系（Indian Summer Monsoon and North China Summer Rainfall,ISM-NCSR）,且在正EU位相时,ISM-NCSR关系较弱;负EU位相时,ISM-NCSR关系较强。这是由于EU负位相时,贝加尔湖右侧存在反气旋环流,有利于北风及冷空气南下。因此,强印度季风时北上的暖湿气流在华北地区与偏北风相遇形成锋面,有利于华北降水;弱印度季风时华北地区完全被强北风控制,水汽输送通道被阻断,不利于降水,从而导致ISM-NCSR关系强。正EU位相时与此相反,相关关系弱。 相似文献
10.
Sukanta Kumar Das Sanjib Kumar Deb C. M. Kishtawal P. K. Pal 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):81-94
Seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has been attempted for the current year 2011 using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). First, 30?years of model climatology starting from 1981 to 2010 has been generated to capture the variability of ISM over the Indian region using 30 seasonal simulations. The simulated model climatology has been validated with different sets of observed climatology, and it was observed that the simulated climatological rainfall is affected by model bias. Subsequently, a bias correction procedure using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 rainfall has been proposed. The bias-corrected rainfall climatology shows both spatial and temporal variability of ISM satisfactorily. Further, four sets of 10-member ensemble simulations of ISM 2009 and 2010 have been performed in hindcast mode using observed sea surface temperature (SST) and persistence of April SST anomaly, and it has been found that the bias-corrected model rainfall captures the seasonal variability of ISM reasonably well with some discrepancies in these two contrasting monsoon years. With this positive background, the seasonal prediction of ISM 2011 has been carried out in forecast mode with the assumption of persistence of May SST anomaly from June through September 2011. The model assessment shows an 11% deficiency in All-India Rainfall (AIR) of ISM 2011. In particular, the monthly accumulated rains are predicted to be 101% (17.6?cm), 86% (24.3?cm), 83% (21.0?cm) and 95% (15.5?cm) of normal AIR for the months of June, July, August and September, respectively. 相似文献
11.
Kakatkar Rashmi Gnanaseelan C. Chowdary J. S. Parekh Anant Deepa J. S. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):1235-1247
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical... 相似文献
12.
Recent work has shown the dominance of the Himalaya in supporting the Indian summer monsoon(ISM),perhaps by surface sensible heating along its southern slope and by mechanical blocking acting to separate moist tropical flow from drier midlatitude air.Previous studies have also shown that Indian summer rainfall is largely unaffected in sensitivity experiments that remove only the Tibetan Plateau.However,given the large biases in simulating the monsoon in CMIP5 models,such results may be model dependent.This study investigates the impact of orographic forcing from the Tibetan Plateau,Himalaya and Iranian Plateau on the ISM and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in the UK Met Office's Had GEM3-GA6 and China's Institute of Atmospheric Physics FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models.The models chosen feature oppositesigned biases in their simulation of the ISM rainfall and circulation climatology.The changes to ISM and EASM circulation across the sensitivity experiments are similar in both models and consistent with previous studies.However,considerable differences exist in the rainfall responses over India and China,and in the detailed aspects such as onset and retreat dates.In particular,the models show opposing changes in Indian monsoon rainfall when the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau orography are removed.Our results show that a multi-model approach,as suggested in the forthcoming Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP) associated with CMIP6,is needed to clarify the impact of orographic forcing on the Asian monsoon and to fully understand the implications of model systematic error. 相似文献
13.
Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model
Susmitha Joseph A. K. Sahai B. N. Goswami Pascal Terray Sebastian Masson J.-J. Luo 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1561-1576
Reasonably realistic climatology of atmospheric and oceanic parameters over the Asian monsoon region is a pre-requisite for models used for monsoon studies. The biases in representing these features lead to problems in representing the strength and variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). This study attempts to unravel the ability of a state-of-the-art coupled model, SINTEX-F2, in simulating these characteristics of ISM. The coupled model reproduces the precipitation and circulation climatology reasonably well. However, the mean ISM is weaker than observed, as evident from various monsoon indices. A wavenumber–frequency spectrum analysis reveals that the model intraseasonal oscillations are also weaker-than-observed. One possible reason for the weaker-than-observed ISM arises from the warm bias, over the tropical oceans, especially over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, inherent in the model. This warm bias is not only confined to the surface layers, but also extends through most of the troposphere. As a result of this warm bias, the coupled model has too weak meridional tropospheric temperature gradient to drive a realistic monsoon circulation. This in turn leads to a weakening of the moisture gradient as well as the vertical shear of easterlies required for sustained northward propagation of rain band, resulting in weak monsoon circulation. It is also noted that the recently documented interaction between the interannual and intraseasonal variabilities of ISM through very long breaks (VLBs) is poor in the model. This seems to be related to the inability of the model in simulating the eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillation during VLBs. 相似文献
14.
Temporal trends between 1951 and 2007 in annual Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation, frequency of severe drought years and onset date of ISM were analysed on a 0.25°?×?0.25° grid cell basis across India using APHRODITE daily gridded precipitation data. Locations which experienced temporal trends of increasing or decreasing inter-annual variation in annual ISM precipitation and onset date of ISM were detected using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. A new method of defining local onset of ISM from daily precipitation data was developed to enable countrywide temporal trend analysis of onset date. India was characterised by a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the magnitude of inter-annual variation and location of significant temporal trends in the examined facets of ISM precipitation. A greater extent of the country experienced significant trends (p?<?0.05) of increasing inter-annual variation rather than simple increasing or decreasing trends in annual ISM precipitation and onset date of ISM. Field significance tests showed grid cells reporting significant trends were significant (p?<?0.05) at the global or field level (except trends of increasing, i.e. later, ISM onset date). This research provides finer spatial detail regarding trends and variation in annual ISM precipitation, severe drought years and onset date of ISM complementing recent studies on trends in extreme precipitation events over India to produce a comprehensive overview of recent behaviour of ISM precipitation. These findings will benefit water managers charged with managing water resources sustainably at a fine spatial scale (the watershed or basin level). 相似文献
15.
Chloé Prodhomme Pascal Terray Sébastien Masson Takeshi Izumo Tomoki Tozuka Toshio Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):271-290
In this study, the impact of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the atmospheric mean state over the Indian Ocean and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is examined in the framework of the SINTEX-F2 coupled model through forced and coupled control simulations and several sensitivity coupled experiments. During boreal winter and spring, most of the Indian Ocean biases are common in forced and coupled simulations, suggesting that the errors originate from the atmospheric model, especially a dry islands bias in the Maritime Continent. During boreal summer, the air-sea coupling decreases the ISM rainfall over South India and the monsoon strength to realistic amplitude, but at the expense of important degradations of the rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mean states in the Indian Ocean. Strong SST biases of opposite sign are observed over the western (WIO) and eastern (EIO) tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts over the ocean (land) are systematically higher (lower) in the northern hemisphere and the south equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall band is missing in the control coupled simulation. During boreal fall, positive dipole-like errors emerge in the mean state of the coupled model, with warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the WIO (EIO), suggesting again a significant impact of the SST errors. The exact contributions and the distinct roles of these SST errors in the seasonal mean atmospheric state of the coupled model have been further assessed with two sensitivity coupled experiments, in which the SST biases are replaced by observed climatology either in the WIO (warm bias) or EIO (cold bias). The correction of the WIO warm bias leads to a global decrease of rainfall in the monsoon region, which confirms that the WIO is an important source of moisture for the ISM. On the other hand, the correction of the EIO cold bias leads to a global improvement of precipitation and circulation mean state during summer and fall. Nevertheless, all these improvements due to SST corrections seem drastically limited by the atmosphere intrinsic biases, including prominently the unimodal oceanic position of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) during summer and the enhanced westward wind stress along the equator during fall. 相似文献
16.
Previous studies have shown that climate anomalies over the North Atlantic–Europe (NAE) can influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability. It is, however, still an outstanding question whether the latter has a significant impact on the former. In this study, observational evidences indicate that the interannual variability of ISM is closely linked to the climate anomalies over NAE. A strong ISM is often associated with significant above normal precipitation over most of western Europe. Meanwhile, positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are usually observed over the Mediterranean, accompanied by below normal SAT in Western Europe during a strong ISM summer. The situation is just opposite during a weak ISM summer. A global primitive equation model is utilized to assess the mechanism of the above observed connection. 相似文献
17.
Modeling the time-dependent response of the Asian summer monsoon to obliquity forcing in a coupled GCM: a PHASEMAP sensitivity experiment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Guang-Shan Chen Zhengyu Liu Steven C. Clemens Warren L. Prell Xiaodong Liu 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(3-4):695-710
To study the time-dependent response of the Asian summer monsoon to obliquity forcing, we analyze a 284,000-year long transient simulation produced by a fully coupled global climate model (GCM) using a new phase mapping (PHASEMAP) approach. Here we focus on understanding the phase response of monsoonal circulation to insolation forcing at the Earth-orbital obliquity band (41 Kyr). Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) can be divided into two geographic regions: the North East Asian summer monsoon (NEASM) and the South East Asian summer monsoon (SEASM). The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the SEASM are in phase at the obliquity band, strengthened with an increase in obliquity from Obliquity minima (Omin) to Obliquity maxima (Omax). The NEASM is out of phase with the ISM and SEASM, weakened with an increase in obliquity from Omin to Omax. We hypothesize that the inverse phase between the NEASM and the ISM at the obliquity band results from an ISM–NEASM teleconnection linked to the formation mechanism of the Bonin High. 相似文献
18.
春季青藏高原表面感热加热的年际变化特征及其对印度夏季风爆发时间的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文基于日本气象厅(JMA)的JRA-25再分析资料,分析了春季青藏高原表面感热加热年际变化的时空特征,及其对印度夏季风爆发过程的影响。EOF分析结果表明,春季高原感热加热的年际变化在高原中西部最为明显,这主要与局地地-气温差的年际变率有关。统计分析表明,当春季高原中西部表面感热偏强(弱)时,印度夏季风爆发偏早(晚),且高原中西部表面感热与ENSO事件无显著相关。春季高原中西部感热能够通过改变印度季风区对流层高层和低层的经向热力结构来影响印度夏季风的爆发时间。当春季高原中西部感热偏强时,造成的上升气流在高原以西的印度季风区北部下沉,通过绝热增暖引起局地对流层中上部的异常暖中心,令印度季风区对流层中上部平均温度经向梯度由冬至夏的季节性反转提早。同时,印度季风区北部的下沉运动能够抑制当地降水,令陆面温度升高,并通过非绝热过程造成对流层低层的异常暖中心,进一步增强了印度季风区的海陆热力对比。在印度季风区以北地区对流层高、低层异常增暖的共同作用下,印度夏季风提前爆发。 相似文献
19.
Robustness of SST teleconnections and precursory patterns associated with the Indian summer monsoon 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This work attempts to reconcile in a common and comprehensive framework the various conflicting results found in the literature regarding Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall-Sea Surface Temperature (SST) relationships, especially the links with El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). To do so, we first examine the linear relationships between ISM rainfall and global SST anomalies during 1950–1976 and 1979–2006 periods. Our results highlight the existence of significant modulations in SST teleconnections and precursory patterns between the first (June–July, JJ) and second part (August–September, AS) of the monsoon. This JJ–AS rainfall dichotomy is more pronounced after the 1976–1977 climate regime shift and tends to blur the global ISM-ENSO signal during the recent period, leading to an apparent weakening of this relationship at the seasonal time scale. Although ISM rainfall in JJ and AS is still strongly linked to ENSO over both periods, the lead-lag relationships between ENSO and AS Indian rainfall have changed during recent decades. Indeed, ENSO variability in the preceding boreal winter has now a significant impact on rainfall variability during the second half of ISM. To evaluate in more details the impact of this JJ-AS dichotomy on the ISM-ENSO-IOD relationships, ISM correlations are also examined separately during El Ni?o and La Ni?a years. Results indicate that the early onset of El Ni?o during boreal spring causes deficient monsoon rainfall in JJ. In response to weaker monsoon winds, warm SST anomalies appear in the west equatorial IO, generating favorable conditions for the development of a positive IOD in AS. Local air-sea processes triggered by the SST anomalies in the eastern node of IOD seem, in turn, to have a more active role on AS rainfall variability, as they may counteract the negative effect of El Ni?o on ISM rainfall via a modulation of the local Hadley circulation in the eastern IO. The JJ–AS rainfall dichotomy and its recent amplification may then result from an enhancement of these IO feedbacks during recent El Ni?o years. This explains why, although El Ni?o events are stronger, a weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship is observed at the seasonal scale after 1979. Results during La Ni?a years are consistent with this hypothesis although local processes in the southeast IO now play a more prominent role and act to further modulate ISM rainfall in AS. Finally, our results highlight the existence of a biennal rhythm of the IOD-ENSO-ISM system during the recent period, according to which co-occurring El Ni?o and positive IOD events tend to be followed by a warming of the IO, a wet ISM during summer and, finally, a La Ni?a event during the following boreal winter. 相似文献
20.
Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) of lower tropospheric ozone is observed in the Indian summer monsoon(ISM) region on the basis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and ozonesonde data from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre. The 30–60-day intraseasonal variation of lower-tropospheric ozone shows a northwest–southeast pattern with northeastward propagation in the ISM region. The most significant ozone variations are observed in the Maritime Continent and western North Pacific. In the tropics, ozone anomalies extend from the surface to 300 hPa; however, in extratropical areas, it is mainly observed under 500 hPa. Precipitation caused by BSISO plays a dominant role in modulating the BSISO of lower-tropospheric ozone in the tropics, causing negative/positive ozone anomalies in phases 1–3/5–6. As the BSISO propagates northeastward to the western North Pacific, horizontal transport becomes relatively more important, increasing/reducing tropospheric ozone via anticyclonic/cyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific in phases 3–4/7–8.As two extreme conditions of the ISM, most of its active/break events occur in BSISO phases 4–7/1–8 when suppressed/enhanced convection appears over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and enhanced/suppressed convection appears over India, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. As a result, the BSISO of tropospheric ozone shows significant positive/negative anomalies over the Maritime Continent, as well as negative/positive anomalies over India, the Bay of Bengal,and the South China Sea in active/break spells of the ISM. This BSISO of tropospheric ozone is more remarkable in break spells than in active spells of the ISM, due to the stronger amplitude of BSISO in the former. 相似文献