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1.
The physical mechanism by which seasonally varying atmospheric wind stress exerted on the sea surface is communicated to the solid earth as oceanic pressure torque (continental torque) and bottom frictional torque is investigated with a linear shallow‐water numerical model of barotropic oceans. The model has a realistic land–ocean distribution and is driven by a seasonally varying climatic wind stress. A novel way to decompose the wind stress into rotational and non‐rotational components is devised. The rotational component drives ocean circulations as classical theories of wind‐driven circulations demonstrate. The non‐rotational component does not produce ocean circulations within the framework of a barotropic shallow‐water model, but balances with the pressure gradient force due to surface displacement in the steady state. Based on this decomposition, it is shown that most of the continental torque which plays a major role in producing the seasonal variation of length of day (LOD) is caused by the non‐rotational component of the wind stress. Both continental torque due to the wind‐driven circulation produced by the rotational component of the wind stress and the bottom frictional torque are of minor importance. 相似文献
2.
A 2‐time‐level finite difference atmospheric general circulation model based on the semi‐Lagrangian advection of pseudo potential vorticity (which becomes potential vorticity in that part of the domain where the hybrid vertical coordinate becomes isentropic) has been formulated. At low levels, the hybrid vertical coordinate is terrain following. The problem of isentropic potential vorticity possibly becoming ill‐defined in the regions of planetary boundary layer is thus circumvented. The divergence equation is a companion to the (pseudo) potential vorticity equation and the model is thus called a PV‐D model. Many features of a previously developed shallow water PV‐D model are carried over: a modification of the PV equation needed to give computational stability of long Rossby waves; a semi‐Lagrangian semi‐implicit treatment of both the linear and the nonlinear terms; the use of an unstaggered grid in the horizontal; the use of a nonlinear multigrid technique to solve the nonlinear implicit equations. A linear numerical stability analysis of the model's gravity–inertia waves indicates that the potential temperature needs to be separated into horizontal mean and perturbation parts. This allows an implicit treatment of the vertical advection associated with the mean in the thermodynamic equation. Numerical experiments with developing baroclinic waves have been carried out and give realistic results. 相似文献
3.
In this paper, we present a numerical procedure for solving a 2‐dimensional, compressible, and nonhydrostatic system of equations. A forward‐backward integration scheme is applied to treat high‐frequency and internal gravity waves explicitly. The numerical procedure is shown to be neutral in time as long as a Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy criterion is met. Compared to the leap‐frog‐scheme most models use, this method involves only two time steps, which requires less memory and is also free from unstable computational modes. Hence, a time‐filter is not needed. Advection and diffusion terms are calculated with a time step longer than sound‐wave related terms, so that extensive computer time can be saved. In addition, a new numerical procedure for the free‐slip bottom boundary condition is developed to avoid using inaccurate one‐sided finite difference of pressure in the surface horizontal momentum equation when the terrain effect is considered. We have demonstrated the accuracy and stability of this new model in both linear and nonlinear situations. In linear mountain wave simulations, the model results match the corresponding analytical solution very closely for all three cases presented in this paper. The analytical streamlines for uniform flow over a narrow mountain range were obtained through numerical integration of Queney's mathematical solution. It was found Queney's original diagram is not very accurate. The diagram had to be redrawn before it was used to verify our model results. For nonlinear tests, we simulated the famous 1972 Boulder windstorm and a bubble convection in an isentropic enviroment. Although there are no analytical solutions for the two nonlinear tests, the model results are shown to be very robust in terms of spatial resolution, lateral boundary conditions, and the use of the time-split scheme. 相似文献
4.
Temporal evolution of innovation and residual statistics in the ECMWF variational data assimilation systems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
HEIKKI JÄRVINEN 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2001,53(3):333-347
The temporal evolution of innovation and residual statistics of the ECMWF 3D‐ and 4D‐Var data assimilation systems have been studied. First, the observational method is applied on an hourly basis to the innovation sequences in order to partition the perceived forecast error covariance into contributions from observation and background errors. The 4D‐Var background turns out to be ignificantly more accurate than the background in the 3D‐Var. The estimated forecast error variance associated with the 4D‐Var background trajectory increases over the assimilation window. There is also a marked broadening of the horizontal error covariance length scale over the assimilation window. Second, the standard deviation of the residuals, i.e., the fit of observations to the analysis is studied on an hourly basis over the assimilation window. This fit should, in theory, reveal the effect of model error in a strong constraint variational problem. A weakly convex curve is found for this fit implying that the perfect model assumption of 4D‐Var may be violated with as short an assimilation window as six hours. For improving the optimality of variational data assimilation systems, a sequence of retunes are needed, until the specified and diagnosed error covariances agree. 相似文献
5.
Simulations of Rossby–Haurwitz waves have been carried out using four different high‐resolution numerical shallow water models: a spectral model, two semi‐Langrangian models predicting wind components and potential vorticity respectively, and a finite‐volume model on a hexagonal–icosahedral grid. The simulations show that (i) unlike the nondivergent case, the shallow water Rossby–Haurwitz wave locally generates small‐scale features and so has a potential enstrophy cascade, and (ii) contrary to common belief, the zonal wavenumber 4 Rossby–Haurwitz wave is dynamically unstable and will eventually break down if initially perturbed. Implications of these results for the use of the Rossby–Haurwitz wave as a numerical model test case are discussed. The four models tested give very similar results, giving confidence in the accuracy and robustness of the results. The most noticeable difference between the models is that truncation errors in the hexagonal–icosahedral grid model excite the Rossby–Haurwitz wave instability, causing the wave to break down quickly, whereas for the other models in the configurations tested the instability is excited only by roundoff error at worst, and the Rossby–Haurwitz wave breaks down much more slowly or not at all. 相似文献
6.
A methodology for the correction of systematic errors in a simplified atmospheric general‐circulation model is proposed. First, a method for estimating initial tendency model errors is developed, based on a 4‐dimensional variational assimilation of a long‐analysed dataset of observations in a simple quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic model. Then, a time variable potential vorticity source term is added as a forcing to the same model, in order to parameterize subgrid‐scale processes and unrepresented physical phenomena. This forcing term consists in a (large‐scale) flow dependent parametrization of the initial tendency model error computed by the variational assimilation. The flow dependency is given by an analogues technique which relies on the analysis dataset. Such empirical driving causes a substantial improvement of the model climatology, reducing its systematic error and improving its high frequency variability. Low‐frequency variability is also more realistic and the model shows a better reproduction of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. A link between the large‐scale flow and the model error is found only in the Euro‐Atlantic sector, other mechanisms being probably the origin of model error in other areas of the globe. 相似文献
7.
The effectiveness of 2 methods for targeting observations is examined using a T21 L3 QG model in a perfect model context. Target gridpoints are chosen using the pseudo‐inverse (the inverse composed of the first three singular vectors only) and the quasi‐inverse or backward integration (running the tangent equations with a negative time‐step). The effectiveness of a target is measured by setting the analysis error to zero in a region surrounding the target and noting the impact on the forecast error in the verification region. In a post‐time setting, when the targets are based on forecast errors that are known exactly, both methods provide targets that are significantly better than targets chosen at random within a broad region upstream of the verification region. When uncertainty is added to the verifying analysis such that the forecast error is known inexactly, the pseudo‐inverse targets still perform very well, while the backward integration targets are degraded. This degradation due to forecast uncertainty is especially significant when the targets are a function of height as well as horizontal position. When an ensemble‐forecast difference is used in place of the inexact forecast error, the backward integration targets may be improved considerably. However, this significant improvement depends on the characteristics of the initial‐time ensemble perturbation. Pseudo‐inverse targets based on ensemble forecast differences are comparable to pseudo‐inverse targets based on exact forecast errors. Targets based on the largest analysis error are also found to be considerably more effective than random targets. The collocation of the backward integration and pseudo‐inverse targets appears to be a good indicator of target skill. 相似文献
8.
Previous work on the classical problem of shocks in a 2‐layer density‐stratified fluid used either a parameterized momentum exchange or an assumed Bernoulli loss. We propose a new theory based on a set of viscous model equations. We define an idealized shock in two‐layer density stratified flow under a rigid lid as a jump or drop of the interface in which (1) the force balance remains nearly hydrostatic in the shock, (2) there is no exchange of momentum between the two layers except by pressure forces on the sloping interface, and (3) dissipative processes can be treated with a constant viscosity. We proceed in two steps. First, we derive a necessary condition for shock existence based on a requirement for wave steepening. Second, we formulate and solve a set of viscous model equations. Some results are the following: Shocks require strong layer asymmetry; one layer must be much faster and/or shallower than the other layer. The linearized equations describing the shock tails provide boundary conditions and a proof of shock uniqueness. It is possible to derive an analytical solution for weak shocks if the steepening condition is met. The weak shock solutions provide closed form expressions for the Bernoulli loss in each layer. Bernoulli losses are strongly concentrated in the expanding layer as the relative layer depth change is much larger in that layer. Bernoulli losses are independent of layer viscosity. A sudden cessation of shock existence is found for strong shocks when the possible end state migrates into the supercritical regime. Surprisingly, the new ideal shock theory compares well with a 2‐D, time‐dependent shallow water model (SWM) with a flux formulation, but with no viscous formulation. Both the Bernoulli drop and shock cessation condition agree quantitatively. 相似文献
9.
The feasibility of assimilating the GPS total zenith delay into atmospheric models is investigated within the framework of the "Observing System Simulation Experiment." The total zenith delay is made up of two terms: one is proportional to the pressure at the site of the GPS ground‐based receiver and the other to the overlying amount of water vapor. Using the MM5 mesoscale model and its adjoint, a set of 4‐dimensional variational (4DVAR) experiments is performed. Results from the assimilation of simulated precipitable water observations are used as the benchmark. The model domain covers Southern California. The observations are simulated with a 10 km horizontal resolution model that includes full physics, while a 20‐km resolution and a less comprehensive physics package are used in the 4DVAR experiments. Both, the 10‐km and 20‐km models employ the same set of 15 vertical levels. Moisture fields retrieved from the total zenith delay are found to compare very well with those retrieved from the precipitable water. Verified against the observations, the vertically integrated moisture is found to be very accurate. An overall improvement is also achieved in the vertical profiles of the moisture fields. The use of the so‐called background term and model initialization are shown to greatly reduce the negative impact that the sole assimilation of the total zenith delay can have on the pressure field and integrated water vapor. The adverse effect stems from the poor resolution of the topography needed to evaluate the model pressure at the GPS sites. The analysis increments of all model fields are found to be similar to the counterparts obtained from the assimilation of the precipitable water. The same is true for the short‐range precipitation forecasts initiated from the 4DVAR‐optimal initial conditions. 相似文献
10.
Two regional climate model experiments for northern and central Europe are studied focussing on greenhouse gas‐induced changes in heavy precipitation. The average yearly maximum one‐day precipitation P max shows a general increase in the whole model domain in both experiments, although the mean precipitation P mean decreases in the southern part of the area, especially in one of the experiments. The average yearly maximum six‐hour precipitation increases even more than the one‐day P max , suggesting a decrease in the timescale of heavy precipitation. The contrast between the P mean and P max changes in the southern part of the domain and the lack of such a contrast further north are affected by changes in wet‐day frequency that stem, at least in part, from changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the yearly extremes of precipitation exhibit a larger percentage increase than the average wet‐day precipitation. The signal‐to‐noise aspects of the model results are also studied in some detail. The 44 km grid‐box‐scale changes in P max are very heavily affected by inter‐annual variability, with an estimated standard error of about 20% for the 10‐year mean changes. However, the noise in P max decreases sharply toward larger horizontal scales, and large‐area mean changes in P max can be estimated with similar accuracy to those in P mean . Although a horizontal averaging of model results smooths out the small‐scale details in the true climate change signal as well, this disadvantage is, in the case of P max changes, much smaller than the advantage of reduced noise. 相似文献
11.
3‐dimensional variational algorithms are widely used for atmospheric data assimilation at the present time, particularly on the synoptic and global scales. However, mesoscale and convective scale phenomena are considerably more chaotic and intermittent and it is clear that true 4‐dimensional data assimilation algorithms will be required to properly analyze these phenomena. In its most general form, the data assimilation problem can be posed as the minimization of a 4‐dimensional cost function with the forecast model as a weak constraint. This is a much more difficult problem than the widely discussed 4DVAR algorithm where the model is a strong constraint. Bennett and collaborators have considered a method of solution to the weak constraint problem, based on representer theory. However, their method is not suitable for the numerical weather prediction problem, because it does not cycle in time. In this paper, the representer method is modified to permit cycling in time, in a manner which is entirely internally consistent. The method was applied to a simple 1‐dimensional constituent transport problem where the signal was sampled (perfectly and imperfectly) with various sparse observation network configurations. The cycling representer algorithm discussed here successfully extracted the signal from the noisy, sparse observations 相似文献
12.
A low‐order climate model is studied which combines the Lorenz‐84 model for the atmosphere on a fast time scale and a box model for the ocean on a slow time scale. In this climate model, the ocean is forced strongly by the atmosphere. The feedback to the atmosphere is weak. The behaviour of the model is studied as a function of the feedback parameters. We find regions in parameter space with dominant atmospheric dynamics, i.e., a passive ocean, as well as regions with an active ocean, where the oceanic feedback is essential for the qualitative dynamics. The ocean is passive if the coupled system is fully chaotic. This is illustrated by comparing the Kaplan–Yorke dimension and the correlation dimension of the chaotic attractor to the values found in the uncoupled Lorenz‐84 model. The active ocean behaviour occurs at parameter values between fully chaotic and stable periodic motion. Here, intermittency is observed. By means of bifurcation analysis of periodic orbits, the intermittent behaviour, and the rôle played by the ocean model, is clarified. A comparison of power spectra in the active ocean regime and the passive ocean regime clearly shows an increase of energy in the low frequency modes of the atmospheric variables. The results are discussed in terms of itinerancy and quasi‐stationary states observed in realistic atmosphere and climate models. 相似文献
13.
The present case study evaluates the downward longwave radiation at the surface (DLR) in several high‐resolution (≈1°) general circulation models (GCMs) using surface observations from a semiarid continental site in New South Wales, Australia (Uardry, 34.39°S, 142.30°E). This site is located on a large grassland plain uniform in both its land use and landcover type, and is therefore particularly well suited for a comparison with GCM grid mean values. Monthly averages of newly constructed clear‐sky and all‐sky DLR climatologies and the resulting cloud‐radiative forcing are compared. It is shown that the GCMs exceed the observed DLR under cloud‐free conditions by 10–20 W m−2 at this semiarid site on an annual basis, with a strong seasonal dependence. The calculated clear‐sky fluxes are overestimated during the warmer summer season, with large absolute values of DLR, while the biases are reduced in the colder and dryer winter season with smaller fluxes. This gives direct support for recent evidence that the DLR model biases depend systematically on the thermal and humidity structure of the cloudless atmosphere. Fluxes from strongly emitting atmospheres tend to be overestimated, but may be underestimated from atmospheres with smaller emission. This points to common problems inherent in the simulation of the emission from the cloudless atmosphere in current longwave radiation codes.
The comparisons of the all‐sky climatologies at Uardry show that the clear‐sky biases are partly masked in the models with an insufficient cloud‐radiative forcing, thereby counterbalancing the excessive DLR of the cloud‐free atmosphere. On the other hand, when the cloudradiative forcing is improved, the biases in the cloud‐free atmosphere become fully apparent in the all‐sky fluxes. 相似文献
The comparisons of the all‐sky climatologies at Uardry show that the clear‐sky biases are partly masked in the models with an insufficient cloud‐radiative forcing, thereby counterbalancing the excessive DLR of the cloud‐free atmosphere. On the other hand, when the cloudradiative forcing is improved, the biases in the cloud‐free atmosphere become fully apparent in the all‐sky fluxes. 相似文献
14.
The dynamics of daily weather types according to Schüepp's classification in the Alpine region is investigated by means of seasonal Markov chain models. A logit model is employed for the transition probabilities of the Markov chain. The parameters follow from a maximum likelihood estimation. A 1st‐ and a 2nd‐order Markov chain model are compared and found to yield very similar results. Model predictions are compared with counted frequencies of seasonally‐averaged joint probabilities for the occurrence of weather types at subsequent days, monthly‐averaged probabilities of a change of the weather type from one to the next day, and daily averages of the probabilities of occurrence of the different weather types. All these predictions coincide with the observations within the statistical limits. The only large deviations occur in the tails of the lengths distributions of uninterrupted episodes of the two most frequent weather types. 相似文献
15.
Several westward propagation properties of the Indian monsoon depression were neglected by previous studies. They include:(1) the slower propagation speed of the depression depicted by a quasi‐geostrophic model, (2) the initiation of the asymmetric secondary circulation with respect to the depression center, and (3) the absence of the depression perturbation in the upper troposphere. Some further insights into these neglected propagation properties of the depression are obtained from the streamfunction budget analysis with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis data. (1) The inclusion of relative vorticity stretching, which is neglected in a quasi‐geostrophic model, increases the depression's westward propagation speed. (2) Within the large‐scale environment of the summer monsoon, the coupling of the east‐west differentiation of the meridional absolute vorticity advection with the CISK mechanism is conducive to the initiation and development of the asymmetric secondary circulation associated with the depression. (3) The Tibetan high is formed by summertime global‐scale stationary waves which are maintained by a Sverdrup balance. The positive streamfunction tendency induced by the upper‐tropospheric vortex stretching over the monsoon region suppresses the development of the monsoon depression in the upper troposphere. 相似文献
16.
S. VANNITSEM 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2001,53(1):56-73
We compare the short‐ and medium‐range predictability of weather regimes of a quasi‐geostrophic model as defined by a hierarchical cluster algorithm and a Lyapunov‐based clustering method recently introduced in the literature. Both procedures lead to weather regimes displaying very different predictability properties on the short and medium range bases. While the former does not distinguish between stable and unstable weather regimes, the latter leads to clusters which do not display a good medium range predictability. We introduce a new clustering method taking advantages of the two previous techniques. Its application in the context of the quasi‐geostrophic model gives rise to regimes possessing at the same time a good medium range skill and well separated instability properties, indicating the possibility to build a systematic cartography of the short‐term predictability of weather fields in phase space. 相似文献
17.
This note provides a detailed theoretical derivation for the removal of non‐physical finite‐amplitude computational oscillations from the solution of the adjoint of a discretized model using the leapfrog finite‐difference scheme. Numerical results are shown using a 1‐dimensional shallow water equation model. 相似文献
18.
19.
The rôle of thermodynamics in the oceanic general circulation is investigated. The ocean is regarded as an open dissipative system that exchanges heat and salt with the surrounding system. A new quantitative method is presented to express the rate of entropy increase for a large‐scale open system and its surroundings by the transports of heat and matter. This method is based on Clausius's definition of thermodynamic entropy, and is independent of explicit expressions of small‐scale dissipation processes. This method is applied to an oceanic general circulation model, and the entropy increase rate is calculated during the spin‐up period of the model. It is found that, in a steady‐state, the entropy increase rate of the ocean system is zero, whereas that of the surroundings shows positive values, for both heat and salt transports. The zero entropy increase rate of the ocean system represents the fact that the system is in a steady‐state, while the positive entropy increase rate in the surroundings is caused by irreversible transports of heat and salt through the steady‐state circulation. The calculated entropy increase rate in the surroundings is 1.9×1011 W K−1 , and is primarily due to the heat transport. It is suggested that the existence of a steady‐state dissipative system on the Earth, from a living system to the oceanic circulation, has a certain contribution to the entropy increase in its nonequilibrium surroundings. 相似文献
20.
J. UOTILA 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2001,53(1):112-128
The wind dependence of sea‐ice motion was studied on the basis of ice velocity and wind observations, and weather model output. The study area was a transition zone between open water and the ice‐covered ocean in the northern Baltic Sea. In the centre of the basin the sea‐ice motion was highly wind‐dependent and the linear relationship between the wind and the drift velocities explained 80% of the drift's variance. On the contrary, the wind‐drift dependence was low near the coast. The wind‐drift coherence was significant over a broader frequency range in the central part of the basin than for the coastal drift. The ice motion was simulated by a numerical model forced with five types of wind stress and with two types of current data, and the outcome was compared with the observed buoy drift. The wind and the wind‐induced surface current were the main factors driving the ice in the basin's centre, while internal ice stresses were of importance in the shear zone near the fast ice edge. The best wind forcing was achieved by applying a method dependent on atmospheric stability and ice conditions. The average air–ice drag coefficient was 1.4×10−3 with the standard deviation of 0.2×10−3 . The improvement brought about by using an accurate wind stress was comparable with that achieved by raising the model grid resolution from 18 km to 5 km. 相似文献