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1.
In order to explore the mechanism of the solar cycle luminosity change observed by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) I experiment on board of the spacecraft Solar Maximum Mission, we examined running mean time profiles of the daily ACRIM data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 to the rising phase of solar cycle 22. By comparing them with those of the daily sunspot number, integrated surface magnetic field flux, integrated He I 10830 Å line equivalent width data, and two kinds of data sets of the daily integrated Ca II K line index as indices of the surface magnetic activities, we found (i) that the running mean time profiles of the six independent data sets have several peaks and valleys in common in one solar cycle with time intervals on the order of a few hundreds of days, and (ii) that the peaks and valleys of the ACRIM data profiles followed the peaks and valleys of all the other five indices of the surface activities by 40 to 60 days. This time delay phenomenon suggests (i) that the luminosity modulation was not directly caused by dark and bright features of the surface magnetic activities that the other five indices represent, and (ii) that the missing sunspot radiative flux which was blocked by sub-surface magnetic flux tubes of sunspots and sunspot groups should be re-radiated 40 to 60 days after the surface emergence of the magnetic flux tubes. The concept of the time delay resolves the enigma of the missing sunspot radiative flux and the enigma of the ACRIM experiment that the luminosity dropped when a sunspot or a sunspot group appeared on the surface while the yearly mean of the luminosity decreased and increased along with the decrease and increase of the yearly sunspot number of the 11-year solar cycle. A model of the mechanism to understand these phenomena is presented and its application to other stars is suggested.  相似文献   

2.
We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23.  相似文献   

3.
We briefly describe historical development of the concept of solar dynamo mechanism that generates electric current and magnetic field by plasma flows inside the solar convection zone. The dynamo is the driver of the cyclically polarity reversing solar magnetic cycle. The reversal process can easily and visually be understood in terms of magnetic field line stretching and twisting and folding in three-dimensional space by plasma flows of differential rotation and global convection under influence of Coriolis force. This process gives rise to formation of a series of huge magnetic flux tubes that propagate along iso-rotation surfaces inside the convection zone. Each of these flux tubes produces one solar cycle. We discuss general characteristics of any plasma flows that can generate magnetic field and reverse the polarity of the magnetic field in a rotating body in the Universe. We also mention a list of problems which are currently being disputed concerning the solar dynamo mechanism together with observational evidences that are to be constraints as well as verifications of any solar cycle dynamo theories of short and long term behaviors of the Sun, particularly time variations of its magnetic field, plasma flows, and luminosity.  相似文献   

4.
R. H. Dicke 《Solar physics》1988,115(1):171-181
It has previously been shown that the statistics of the phase fluctuation of the sunspot cycle are compatible with the assumption that the solar magnetic field is generated deep in the Sun by a frequency stable oscillator and that the observed substantial phase fluctuation in the sunspot cycle is due to variation in the time required for the magnetic field to move to the solar surface (Dicke, 1978, 1979). It was shown that the observed phase shifts are strongly correlated with the amplitude of the solar cycle. It is shown here that of two empirical models for the transport of magnetic flux to the surface, the best fit to the data is obtained with a model for which the magnetic flux is carried to the surface by convection with the convection velocity proportional to a function of the solar cycle amplitude. The best fit of this model to the data is obtained for a 12-yr transit time. The period obtained for the solar cycle is T = 22.219 ± 0.032 yr. It is shown that the great solar anomaly of 1760–1800 is most likely real and not due to poor data.  相似文献   

5.
A technique for predicting the amplitude of the solar cycle   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
R. J. Thompson 《Solar physics》1993,148(2):383-388
Predictions of the amplitude of the last three solar cycles have demonstrated the value and accuracy of the group of prediction methods known as the precursor techniques. These are based on a correlation between cycle amplitude and phenomena observed on the Sun, or originating from the Sun, during the declining phase of the cycle or at solar minimum. In many cases, precursor predictions make use of the long record of geomagnetic disturbance indices, assuming that these indices are indicative of solar phenomena such as the occurrence of coronal holes.This paper describes a precursor technique for predicting the amplitude of the solar cycle using geomagnetic indices. The technique is accurate — it would have predicted each of the last 11 cycles with a typical error of less than 20 in sunspot number. It has also advantage that a prediction of the lower limit of the amplitude can be made throughout the declining phase, this limit building to a final value at the onset of the new cycle.  相似文献   

6.
We devised a new method, which we call the running-segment method, to achieve high-resolution time series of indices of solar rotation for determining the latitude dependence of the differential rotation by a least-squares fitting of the daily translation of positions of sunspot groups during a fixed time segment of 11 years. The segment is moved by an amount of one year to determine the differential profile of the next point of time. Time of the determined rotation data is defined by an arithmetic mean of the beginning and ending years of the segment. The rotation underwent an acceleration from 1948 to 1974 and a deceleration from 1974 to 1987. We found that the time profile of the indexM, the angular momentum surface layer density defined by integration of the angular momentum volume density over the whole surface, follows almost exactly the time profile of the 11-year running mean of the yearly mean of the sunspot relative number with a delay time of about 20 years. The acceleration (deceleration) phase corresponds to the ascending (descending) phase of amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle of cycle 16 (19) to cycle 19 (20) with a delay time of about 20 years. The cycles 15–20 correspond to the 55-year grand cycle V of the 11-year cycle. The delay time of about 20 years agrees well with the delay time predicted by a nonlinear dynamo theory of the solar cycle for driving the 55-year modulation of the 11-year solar cycle. The agreement suggests that the Lorentz force of the magnetic field of the solar cycle during grand cycle V drives the solar rotation modulation from 1948 to 1987 and that the force needed about 20 years to modify the rotation during 1943–1992.  相似文献   

7.
We have used data from five neutron monitor stations with primary rigidity (Rm) ranging from 16 GeV to 33 GeV to study the diurnal variations of cosmic rays over the period: 1965–1986 covering one 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The heliosphere interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and plasma hourly measurements taken near Earth orbit, by a variety of spacecraft, are also used to compare with the results of solar diurnal variation. The local time of maximum of solar diurnal diurnal variations displays a 22-year cycle due to the solar polar magnetic field polarities. In general, the annual mean of solar diurnal amplitudes, magnitude of IMF and plasma parameters are found to show separte solar cycle variations. Moreover, during the declining period of the twenty and twenty-ne solar cycles, large solar diurnal amplitudes are observed which associated with high values of solar wind speed, plasma temperature and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude B3.  相似文献   

8.
Measurements of both solar irradiance and p-mode oscillation frequencies indicate that the structure of the Sun changes with the solar cycle. Balmforth, Gough & Merryfield investigated the effect of symmetrical thermal disturbances on the solar structure and the resulting pulsation frequency changes. They concluded that thermal perturbations alone cannot account for the variations in both irradiance and p-mode frequencies, and that the presence of a magnetic field affecting acoustical propagation is the most likely explanation of the frequency change, in the manner suggested earlier by Gough & Thompson and by Goldreich et al. Numerical simulations of Boussinesq convection in a magnetic field have shown that at high Rayleigh number the magnetic field can modify the preferred horizontal length scale of the convective flow.
Here, we investigate the effect of changing the horizontal length scale of convective eddies on the linewidths of the acoustic resonant mode peaks observed in helioseismic power spectra. The turbulent fluxes in these model computations are obtained from a time-dependent, non-local generalization of the mixing-length formalism. The modelled variations are compared with p-mode linewidth changes revealed by the analysis of helioseismic data collected by the Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON); these low-degree (low- l ) observations cover the complete falling phase of solar activity cycle 22. The results are also discussed in the light of observations of solar-cycle variations of the horizontal size of granules and with results from 2D simulations by Steffen of convective granules.  相似文献   

9.
The properties of kinematic -dynamos are briefly reviewed. The mean field concept, including turbulent diffusivity, is defended against recent criticism. It is pointed out that although the Maunder minimum cannot be explained by kinematic dynamo theory alone, this does not invalidate dynamo theory in general. A special discussion is devoted to attempts to evaluate the coefficients of the mean field induction equation in the case of very large conductivity. The field then behaves intermittent, in the form of locally concentrated flux tubes, and the -effect and the turbulent diffusivity may be determined by asymptotic techniques or with the help of an exact solution of the non-dissipative induction equation in Lagrangian co-ordinates.Magnetic cycles of main sequence stars other than the Sun are briefly discussed. Besides rotation, the depth of the convection zone is probably the most influencial parameter for period and amplitude of the stellar cycle.Observational programmes to advance the theory of the solar cycle must include the solar magnetic and velocity fields, over the entire Sun and on all scales. In particular the angular velocity as a function of depth should be studied further with the help of the p-eigenmodes. The knowledge of luminosity, radius and (or) temperature variations with the solar cycle would also stimulate the theoretical approach.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.Mitteilung aus dem Kiepenheuer-Institut Nr. 194.  相似文献   

10.
The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite composite time series has been revised using algorithm updates based on 13 years of accumulated mission experience and corrections to ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 results for scattering and diffraction derived from recent testing at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total solar irradiance Radiometer Facility (LASP/TRF). The net correction lowers the ACRIM3 scale by ～3000 ppm, in closer agreement with the scale of SORCE/TIM results (average total solar irradiance ≈1361.5 W/m2). Differences between the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are investigated, particularly the decadal trending during solar cycles 21–22 and the Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE results available to bridge the ACRIM Gap (1989–1992), are tested against a set of solar proxy models. Our findings confirm the following ACRIM TSI composite features: (1) The validity of the TSI peak in the originally published ERB results in early 1979 during solar cycle 21; (2) The correctness of originally published ACRIM1 results during the SMM spin mode (1981–1984); (3) The upward trend of originally published ERB results during the ACRIM Gap; (4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22–23. The same analytical approach does not support some important features of the PMOD TSI composite: (1) The downward corrections applied to the originally published ERB and ACRIM1 results during solar cycle 21; (2) The step function sensitivity change in ERB results at the end-of-September 1989; (3) The downward trend of ERBE results during the ACRIM Gap and (4) the use of ERBE results to bridge the ACRIM Gap. Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037 %/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21–22. The implications of increasing TSI during the global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century are that solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models.  相似文献   

11.
To understand better the variation of solar activity indicators originated at different layers of the solar atmosphere with respect to sunspot cycles, we carried out a study of phase relationship between sunspot number, flare index and solar radio flux at 2800 MHz from January 1966 to May 2008 by using cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The flare index and sunspot number have synchronous phase for cycles 21 and 22 in the northern hemisphere and for cycle 20 in the southern hemisphere. (2) The flare index has a noticeable time lead with respect to sunspot number for cycles 20 and 23 in the northern hemisphere and for cycles 22 and 23 in the southern hemisphere. (3) For the entire Sun, the flare index has a noticeable time lead for cycles 20 and 23, a time lag for cycle 21, and no time lag or time lead for cycle 22 with respect to sunspot number. (4) The solar radio flux has a time lag for cycles 22 and 23 and no time lag or time lead for cycles 20 and 21 with respect to sunspot number. (5) For the four cycles, the sunspot number and flare index in the northern hemisphere are all leading to the ones in the southern hemisphere. These results may be instructive to the physical processes of flare energy storage and dissipation.  相似文献   

12.
We found an evidence that the luminosity of the Sun systematically decreased about 20 days before sunspot surface appearance by analysing time-lag correlation of time derivatives of running mean time profiles of the data of the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) I experiment on board of Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and of the data of the daily sunspot number. This indicates that sunspot flux tube cooling and heat transport blocking by the flux tubes start to take place in the interior of the solar convection zone well before the sunspot surface appearance. From this finding and our previous finding that the luminosity of the Sun systematically increased and the blocked heat appeared on the surface about 50 days after the sunspot surface appearance, a new view of sunspot formation and dynamics and a new view of the luminosity modulation emerged. (i) Sunspots of a solar cycle are formed from clusters of flux tubes which can be seen in the running mean time profile of the sunspot number as a peak with duration on the order of 100 to 200 days. (ii) Heat flow is blocked by the cluster of sunspot flux tubes inside the convection zone to decrease the luminosity about 20 days before the surface emergence of the sunspot cluster. (iii) The blocked heat appears on the surface about 50 days after the surface emergence of the cluster of sunspot flux tubes to heat up the surface. This appears as a thermal pulse in the running mean time profile of the ACRIM dat in between the peaks of the sunspot running mean time profile. This process of heating the surface makes the temperature gradient less steep and weakens the buoyancy of sunspot flux tubes below the surface. (vi) The radiative cooling of the surface layer by the excess heat release steepens the temperature gradient so that the buoyancy of the sub-surface magnetic flux tubes becomes stronger to cause the next surge of emergence of a cluster of sunspots and other magnetic activities, which creates a peak in the time profile of the sunspot number. We call this peak a magnetic pulse of the Sun and the coupled process of alternating pulsed appearance of heat and sunspots the magneto-thermal pulsation of the Sun.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of solar flares in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun that occurred during the period 1996 to 2003. This period of investigation includes the ascending phase, the maximum and part of the descending phase of solar cycle 23. It is revealed that the flare activity during this cycle is low compared to the previous solar cycle, indicating the violation of Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. The distribution of flares with respect to heliographic latitudes shows a significant asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere which is maximum during the minimum phase of the solar cycle. The present study indicates that the activity dominates the northern hemisphere in general during the rising phase of the cycle (1997–2000). The dominance of northern hemisphere shifted towards the southern hemisphere after the solar maximum in 2000 and remained there in the successive years. Although the annual variations in the asymmetry time series during cycle 23 are quite different from cycle 22, they are comparable to cycle 21.  相似文献   

14.
To investigate the long-term modulation of galactic cosmic rays at the ground-based detector energies, the monthly values of the neutron monitor (Climax, Mt. Washington, Deep River, and Huancayo) and ionization chamber (Cheltenham/Fredericksburg, Huancayo, and Yakutsk) intensities have been correlated with the sunspot numbers (used as a proxy index for transient solar activity) for each phase of sunspot cycles 18 to 22. Systematic differences are found for results concerning odd and even sunspot cycles. During odd cycles (19 and 21) the onset time of cosmic-ray modulation is delayed when compared with the onset time of the sunspot cycle, while they are more similar during even (18, 20, and 22) cycles. Checking the green corona data, on a half-year basis, we found typical heliolatitudinal differences during ascending phases of consecutive sunspot cycles. This finding suggests a significant role of the latitudinal coronal behaviour in the heliospherical dynamics during a Hale cycle. Such effectiveness concerns not only the transient interplanetary perturbations but also the recurrent ones. In fact, when lag between cosmic-ray data and sunspot numbers is considered, the anticorrelation between both parameters is very high (correlation coefficient |r| > 0.9) for all the phases considered, except for the declining ones of cycles 20 and 21, when high-speed solar wind streams coming from coronal holes affect the cosmic-ray propagation, and theRz parameter is no longer the right proxy index for solar-induced effects in the interplanetary medium.  相似文献   

15.
The simultaneous enhancement or subsidence of both the high-speed solar wind streams and the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum or the maximum phase of the solar cycle are interpreted in a unified manner by the concept of geometrical evolution of the general magnetic field of the corona-heliomagnetosphere system. The coronal general magnetic field evolves from an open dipole-like configuration in the minimum phase to a closed configuration with many loop-like formations in the maximum phase of the solar cycle. This concept, developed in a theoretical solar-cycle model driven by the dynamo action of the global convection, is examined and found to be valid by studying the evolution of the coronal general magnetic field calculated from the observed surface general magnetic field of 1959–1974. It is also found that the energy density of the poloidal component of the general surface field, from which the coronal field originates, attained a maximum in the maximum phase and showed a evolution with virtually no phase delay with respect to that of the toroidal component of the field, to which the sunspot activity is related. The subsidence of the high-speed solar wind in the maximum phase is understood as a braking of the solar wind streams by the tightly closed and strong coronal field lines in the lower corona in the maximum phase. The field lines of the heliomagnetosphere, which originate from the coronal field lines drawn by the solar wind, are inferred to be also more tightly closed at the heliopause in the maximum phase than in the minimum phase. The decrease of the galactic cosmic rays in the maximum phase (known as the Forbush's negative correlation between the galactic cosmic ray intensity and the solar activity or the Forbush solar-cycle modulation of the galactic cosmic rays) is interpreted as a braking of the cosmic rays by the closed magnetic field lines at the heliopause. The observed phase lag (approximately one year) of the galactic cosmic ray modulation with respect to the evolution of the solar cycle, and the observed absence of the gradient of the total cosmic ray intensity between 1 AU and 8 AU, are discussed to support this view of the cosmic ray modulation at the remote heliopause, and reject other hypotheses to explain the phenomenon in terms of the magnetic irregularities of various kinds carried by the solar wind: The short-term Forbush decrease at a time of a flare shows that the magnetic irregularities can react on the cosmic rays relatively near the Sun if they even played a dominant role in the long-term modulation. The concept of the general magnetic field of the corona and the surface is also used to understand the basic nature of the surface field itself, by comparing the geometry of the calculated coronal field lines with the eclipse photographs of the corona, and by discussing, in the context of the coronal general magnetic field associated with the solar cycle, the process of the emergence of the coronal field lines from the interior and the formation of the transequatorial arches and loops connecting the two hemispheres in the corona.  相似文献   

16.
The source of the poloidal magnetic field was fixed using a uniform series of surface low-resolution magnetic field observations begun at Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford. The results obtained confirm the idea that low-frequency dynamo waves with a period approximately equal to 22 years and a high-frequency wave of a quasi-two-year period can coexist. It seems that an interaction between these components in the convection zone takes place on the Sun. Surface large-scale solar magnetic fields are analyzed using a two-dimensional Fourier method technique to study the poloidal field distribution. The first harmonic approximately equals the period of the magnetic cycle, appears at all latitudes, and reaches its the maximum value in the polar regions. Moreover, spectral analyses of axisymmetric magnetic field derivative in time found that the second important harmonic of a period approximately equal to two years appears at all latitudes. This second high-frequency harmonic dominates the polar latitude regions at the same time as the low-frequency one.  相似文献   

17.
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.  相似文献   

18.
The Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) had on board the electron temperature probe experiment which measured temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere of Venus. When the probe was outside the Venus ionosphere and was in the solar wind, the probe current was entirely due to solar photons striking the probe surface. This probe thus measured integrated solar EUV flux (Ipe) over a 13-year period from January 1979 to December 1991, thereby covering the declining phase of solar cycle 21 and the rising phase of solar cycle 22. In this paper, we examine the behavior of Ipe translated to the solar longitude of Earth (to be called EIpe) during the two solar cycles. We find that total EUV flux changed by about 60% during solar cycle 21 and by about 100% in solar cycle 22. We also compare this flux with other solar activity indicators such as F_10.7 , Lα, and the solar magnetic field. We find that while the daily values of EIpe are highly correlated with F_10.7 (correlation coefficient 0.87), there is a large scatter in EIpe for any value of this Earth-based index. A comparison of EIpe with SME and UARS SOLSTICE Lα measurements taken during the same period shows that EIpe tracks Lα quite faithfully with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Similar comparison with the solar magnetic field (Bs) shows that EIpe correlates better with Bs than with F_10.7 . We also compare EIpe with total solar irradiance measured during the same period.  相似文献   

19.
Systematic measurements of the differential Doppler velocity of the Sun have been performed in Crimea from 1974 through 1988 (total 987 days, 6197 hours of observations). They confirm the presence of a long-term phase-coherent solar pulsation with a period of 160.010 min. On the other hand, the analysis of new data suggests that solar 160 min pulsation might, in frequency, have a multiplet fine structure. In particular, large changes of amplitude and phase of the pulsation over the years 1982–1986 may indicate that during the last few years we have been observing the solar 160 min oscillation of the second portion of the 22 year solar cycle.It is further noted that the beat period of the two closely spaced frequencies (periods are 160.0101 and 160.0126 min) equals 19.5 ± 1.1 year, which is in good agreement with the average length of the solar magnetic activity cycle, 20–22 years. Being verified, this unpredicted property of the pulsation can offer a novel possibility for probing the Sun's interior and perhaps for the study of the internal rotation and 11(22) year cycle of a star.  相似文献   

20.
The magnetic field pattern associated with large scale convective motions, which are much larger than the supergranules and have been conceived as a source of maintenance of the solar differential rotation, is calculated in the framework of a slowly and differentially rotating thin spherical shell, including the effects of thermal conductivity and viscosity. The approximations of Boussinesq are used and the initial state of the magnetic field is assumed to be purely toroidal.The resulting magnetic field pattern rotates rigidly on the differentially rotating Sun with some phase delay to the convective pattern, if it is assumed that only the predominant mode with the maximum growth rate is actually realized in the solar convection zone. The obtained magnetic and convective patterns and their properties seem to explain naturally the various aspects of large scale ordering of solar activity such as the existence and behavior of complexes of activity, the rigid body rotation of proton flare active longitudes, their association with UMR's, the existence of ghost and mirror image of UMR's themselves and the fact that the rotational period derived from sunspot data is shorter than that derived spectroscopically from fluid velocity.  相似文献   

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